patrick.net

CNBC guest (Bob Walberg) saying hard landing. Saying homebuilder stocks could go down 40% from here.

Other than this guy, been a lot of "soft landing" talk on CNBC.

Tomorrow at 8pm eastern, Special on CNBC--Real Estate Survival Guide. Sure we'll hear a "balanced" view. Meaning half bulls and half bears. That's usually how these things go. Then you're supposed to draw your own conclusions, meaning most people will come out of the show believing what they came into it believing.

newsfreak,

You know, I'm not sure but this was a few years back during a legendary "event". If you would like you can feel free to substitute Olde English 800, Bud Ice, Hurricane Ice or similar rot gut of your choosing. One has only to imagine how much golf in Amuricka is taking place behind the confines of a gated community where men of "refinement and means" need not associate with cold call brokers of my ilk. I've heard a round at Steve Wynne's new club in Vegas runs $500. $500! That's how much I was planning on spending the whole 3 day weekend!

Cruiser,

As far as Randy’s trashing of commodities bulls, well, I don’t really care, as he’s nothing greater than an amateur econonmist. My portfolio says otherwise.

Funny you would categorize my comments as "trashing". (a) I have commodities in my portfolio, and have stated that all along. (b) I merely stated that people should never invest in things they don't understand, and very few people understand commodities markets in general, let alone specific precious metals.

If you understand the complexities of these things then I congratulate you and wish you the best of returns. Don't make the mistake of assuming others have your knowledge or skills (assuming you have such skills and aren't just lucky); invoke your Midwestern humility.

Also, stay away from commodities, like Randy says. Poor investments. Let me buy more cheap. I’ll sell them to you later, when thngs heat up and “everybody is doing it” for a lot more then. You’ll want in then, no matter what you say about being smarter-than-thou contrarians. Less exciting, but far more rewarding. Thanks.

Please reference where I stated commodities are a poor investment, in context. In fact, I believe I accounted how following a Black-Litterman factor model portfolio yields positive returns vis-a-vis commodities, but only if one ignores their emotions and invests without speculation.

A final point. Why are you so angry? All your petty parochialism just tells me you are ignorant about California. Many of us here grew up in the Midwest and have the view from both sides.

No, I rather think that you are no different than the desperate real-estate agents who are trying to scare, intimidate, insult, belittle...anything to get people to keep buying for just a bit longer. Is that your great "Gold Portfolio Strategy"? Scare folks with logic like "buy now or be priced out forever"? After all, gold "only goes up".

By the way, I am very much an amateur economist by my own definition, because I do not have a PhD in economics.

DinOR,

Thanks for your pointing out the source and intent of the "millionaires" fluff piece.

Beer from vending machines should be the LAW!

I just think it's so sad that we have been conditioned to think that having fun requires access to a HELOC! In fact, I'd have to say some of the most fun I've ever had was done w/$20 or less! We're being segregated by price. It's all around us in every way. What I see is very little "middle ground" when it comes to recreation. We have oppulence and we have dumps (and very little in between). Or is it just me that seems to notice this?

I see no reason an average person should buy an individual commodity. Unless someone is very sure of themselves and willing to speculate, it seems to me the wise play is to determine a reasonable desired commodity exposure in the portfolio (maybe 20%--more or less depending on comfort and belief), then scale in over time. Once the target is reached, the portfolio should be rebalanced on a schedule (once a year is probably fine). The commodities purchased should be diverse--one of the commodity basket ETFs seems reasonable.

>>Amazing….When will the madness end?

It does have to end. I would bet on sooner rather than later, but bubbles are bubbles because this is how they act. By definition, they overextend.

When you blow a bubble with gum, you reach a point of no return when you know that it's going to stick to your face. Once you pass that mark, you blow for broke--for the hell of it. You know it'll pop, you keep blowing for the glory of the pop.

What I'm trying to get at with the religious thing is that at least to me, relgion is very loosly based on general belief systems. Last year at a small earth day fair in town was a booth of T-shirts by this company called" little lefties", where parents could adorn their babies with unabashed advertisements for the masses, so that in the sheer hope that many people find babies adorable, would get a message hammered into their heads that the liberal side is the best side.
What a load of crap. The way I see it, that's no diffrent than a guy dragging a cross. But I deal with it. Who cares? People everywhere are going to adopt religion of some sort at some time. Hell- we could even label the anti-housing sentiment here as a religion: something we believe in and preach in the hopes things will go our way based on daily findings.
What I meant by being intelligent is that by the time someone is grown up, they more than likely have their minds made up and ain't changing it. People blathering on about how much they like or dislike something , and how you too should try it isn't a big deal to me. Why it seems to be such a big deal to others is a mystery. Sure- I probably do a lot of things that others find idiotic. Even my wife yells at me for doing things on occasion. That doesn't mean that I'm going to change them simply because you told me to. It's my choice, and I feel pretty confident that most people- even those that are bestowed the title of the unintellient are actually fairly smart. I think the diffrence is how much a person is drawn to mob mentality.

>>I believe sheep fun is illegal in the Divided States of America â„¢.

Just another example of the government controlling our lives and our livestock relations.

I don't see us as any more divided than we've ever been. There's always 5% on one side and 5% on the other side that think things are splitting in half, with the remaining 90% in the middle being cemented by frivolity such as American idol.

The way I see it, we have zealots on the left and the right who are more similar to each other than the masses. That's one side.

Then we have the masses. That's the other side. They may call themselves Dems, Reps, or Inds, but they are largely all the same. They want their TV, SUV, fast food.

I don't see how a civil war starts here. If it does, it'll be mostly a televised event with good ratings.

A lot of us who are conservative and live in CA are regularly exposed to a differnet kind of fundamentalism, one every bit as unpleasant and intrusive as Christian prostyltizing.

I'm talking about political liberalism. I have to endure anti-Republcian rants pretty much every day, from coworkers, clients, and people I encounter in casual settings. I almost always keep my mouth shut becuase I don't want to start a bitter political argument. But it is bothersome, let me tell you. It's nothing more than a form of prostelytizing.

It's funny, too, the class divisions among voters here in CA are blindingly obvious. In 2004, almost every Kerry/Edwards bumper sticker was on a rich person's car, like a BMW or Mercedes. The Bush/Cheney stickers were all on F150's and crappy, aging minivans and family sedans.

My wife's car actually got keyed -- THREE TIMES -- becuase of her Bush/Cheney bumper sticker. She also got egged twice in the weeks leading up to Election Day, 2004. There was a car seat in the back, and you'd think that people wouldn't abuse a vehicle that transports small children, but the libs vandalized it anyway.

On a related note, you should try driving around in my wife's car sometime. When we go out together on weekends, we get honked at by people who shout expletives or flip us the bird on a regular basis, at least once or twice a day. When we travel to places like West Hollywood or Santa Monica, it happens every few minutes. Serioulsy, I am not making this up or exxagerating. People will honk and make rude gestures at most every intersection!

Interestingly, my car has never been touched, and I have never been honked at, although I too have a bumper sticker. It's probably becuase I drive an SUV and keep it in immaculate condition. People instinctively know that the driver of the vehicle must be some sort of blue collar guy, and they are afraid to start something. But the libs all feel free to honk at and shout things at my wife, a mother of two small children (the kids are always in the car.)

Right-wing Republcians like me are obviously a minority in CA. But you know what? I would never think of moving away because of that. I just live with the differences and annoyances and go on about my life.

I think a lot of Californians could do the same if the circumstances were reversed. If you are a secular liberal, I'm sure you can find a way to get by in Texas. There are liberals in TX, just as there are conservatives in CA, and you won't be totally isolated. The minor cultural diffrernces, such as more public displays of religiosity, are ones that you can live with.

Finally, most people are more interested in the mundane details of day to day life than religion and politics. You can find common ground with almost everyone; even if you have poltiical differences, there are still a lot of other things that you'll share.

I wouldn't let the cultural differences stop anyone from moving to a red state.

New Thread: Whack-an-Author

buffpilot,

True, true. I've never had the delusion that I would be rubbing elbows with the Heinz family I just sigh every time I see yet another drive-in movie get plowed under to make room for another grocery anchored strip mall no one asked for. It's been brought up before that it's become so hard to tell who does and doesn't have money these days. With gonzo bubble bucks there for the HELOC'n and 24/7 access to the Housing ATM Machine is it any wonder that we're not interested in "simple pleasures" any more?

My uncle, a traveling sign salesman, has been saying for 15 years that there's going to be a revolution.

"Who's going to start it?" I ask.

Well, he's talked to a lot of people in trailer parks, and they're not going to put up with disparity any longer.

ORLY

But the libs all feel free to honk at and shout things at my wife, a mother of two small children (the kids are always in the car.)

Maybe they were just your run of the mill baby haters.;)

Joe,
I 2nd the good post. I got so damned tired of all the "save tibet", save this, save that, do this, do that, and my favorite:" If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention!" that I finally just made my own sticker: " Super-self-righteous bumper sticker." I didn't get any evil looks or anything because I wasn't saying anything about anyone in particular, but they knew...
And as far as secular liberals finding meccas in other states, here's the thing: Can you name a single "liberal" area that isn't overpriced? Sometimes I wonder if half of the housing problem is really thanks in part to fanatic libs who just know they can't live anywhere but "x" and when "x" gets too expensive because so many of their kind clog up the region, they start desperatly looking for other possible areas. Once these " new" areas are discovered, they are rapidly overun, overpriced, and overpopulated by like-minded individuals. That's why Austin concerns me. I already hear tons of people say " the little blue dot in the big red state" is on their radar. Austin, watch out, because here they come- save tibet stickers and all, to essnetially ruin their economy and yuppify the whole place up, as if it isn't already.
Honestly? All the crap that happened in the last election turned me off on politics in general. I'm a traditional southern guy, but I swear I'm thinking of voting 3rd party next time, even though I know these guys will probably never be taken seriously.

cruiser,
You're very good at making wrong assumptions. As a matter of fact, I consider myself republican/libertarian

Funny though, when anybody disagrees with you, out they go. Not very inclusive at all, really.

Did anyone here tell you to go away? Bring it on, I say.

Superficial stuff. Disposable people and relationships. You can screw over other people and disappear into the huge metropolis like a shadow. In smaller places, your reputation follows you around. That’s generally why we’re more honest here.

Where did you get this stuff from? It reads like a bad novel, and can you make more stereotypes?

What I can never understand is why so many self-professed followers of Jesus, who preached humility, kindness towards others, and all that good stuff, turn out to be so darned judgemental, rude, arrogant, and mean-spirited.

"Jesus, please save us from you followers."

Wow. Holy wars!

Cruiser, my objection to religion is that once someone asks their priest "What does god think about X" they usually get an answer. Over time, those answers need to be made semi-consistent, and thus you get doctrine. If Christians were able to follow the Law that Jesus gave them, they wouldn't ask such questions. But they do ask, because they want everything to be laid out for them in black and white. And so the doctrines are extended while the original Law is forgotten, and eventually there are areas where the two conflict. And like the Pharisees before them, who held their doctrines superior to the Law as Moses taught them, so do a great many Christians today base their judgments on doctrinal sophistry.

Cruiser,

Sorry for trying to engage you in an actual discussion. As for your righteous preaching: spare me. I heard enough of that crap last week between Angola, Liberty Center, Swanton and Wilmington. I'll bet I had dinner with folks who would tell you you're bound for hell for using the devil's tool known as the Internet. Have fun trying to out-jeebus one another.

I dressed up like Jeebus Christ in Clown Suit last halloween. It was great, long brown flowing hair, crown of thorns, sigmata, sacred bleeding heart on chest, and a clown suit, big shoes.

I had a bracelet that said WWTCD, "what would the clown do"?

I certainly don't agree with Cruiser's sweeping judgements directed at Randy H & others, but I must admit, this part of his rant was pretty darned funny:

I just know the preachy liberals would hate a Christian reference. They all got a different religion that’s got nothing to do with a God. How’s that working out for you in the Bay Area? That religion of money, passive entertainment, and being overrun by a horde of “diversity”? Can’t wait to get out form the high taxes, bad neighborhoods and schools? How’s that dirty air smellin? Clouds and sunsets are pretty, though.

Cruiser is a Jukubot. Don't bother responding to him, it's just pattern generated inflammatory responses. That's why "he" doesn't appear to be responding to anyone's points directly or with any clarity.

If "he" replies to this short bit, then it is probably just evidence that the operator is attempting to salvage his little experiment in this thread/blog.

Man, those bots are getting a bit of an ego these days. I wonder if the goldbugs have deployed sentiment manipulators of their own in an attempt to get back something before margin call?