patrick.net

Why don't the people who the markets really listen to, say whats really going on. Their not less intelligent than I am, are they? They could have said years ago that this is a speculative bubble, and people should hold off on buying a house for a few months till prices are in line with wages.

This should be common sense. Fraud with this scenario, would not be able to take hold. But, Now it's too late. We get what we deserve.

doingwellthankyou said,

"Consequently, we don’t spend page after page predicting economic doom and sucking each other’s dicks about how ‘above it’ we all are. Instead, we find a way to get what we want. Cheers."

The classic example of a troll with wit and a foul mouth.

If this guy is who he claims to be, how many many more like him does he think their are?

Not enough to sustain the market....

See? This is what I'm talking about. Generally I wake up in a pretty good mood but it doesn't take long before some dickhead like "doingwell" gets me good and pissed off. This asshat makes claims about his neighborhood and even uses Zillow to butress a ridiculous (and frankly pointless) claim but fogot to tell us which zip he lives in! Even if true and we were somehow able to verify asshats claim it would basically mean that there was ONE neighborhood (which is a word that is losing teeth by the day) with NO flips and NO housing ATM withdrawals to fund purchases. BFD! With mountains of hard evidence rising armpit high perma bulls are retreating block by block just to have a leg to stand on. What an asshat.

Don't you just love it? Someone who has "owned" a home for all of maybe 5 years lecturing on the "merits" of homeownership? Asshat, give the world a break already! 5 years is the amount of time I've put off cleaning the gutters for crissakes! I've had pairs of socks longer than you've been a "homeowner"! I've had grudges with neighbors that lasted at least twice that long. With conventional financing after a whopping 5 years you've have paid done exactly ZIP POINT SQUAT on your principal!

doingwellthankyou,

Thank you for the Monday morning laughs. I occasionally tutor young MBA students like yourself in their basic finance courses. Feel free to drop me an email if you're still struggling.

doingwellthankyou,
I think you've misundertstood the whole purpose of this site. The real reason it exists isn't that we're all angry that we are "priced out". The site is really more about discussing whether or not the current economics, Politics, Tax regulations, and whipped up hytseria is really all what they're cooked up to be.
At some point, someone had to call foul. Otherwise, the state cannot continue like it is going. I think you very well know this. Do you really think homes would suddenly be worth 5 million in another 4 years? How is that even remotely possible, yet there are people who thought they were in such grave peril of being priced out that they did whatever it took, regardless of the quality of life( or lack therof) that they wound up getting in return.
Am I priced out? Not really. I'm not originally from California and have the good fortune of realizing that there are plenty of places around the country that are just as nice, or in some cases nicer than California and yet cost 1/5th the price. See, the whole problem with the " priced out" theory is that given the choice, people will do one of two things. Either they'll stop buying and wait for prices to come down, or they'll simply leave. Either way, the California economy is going to get roughed up a bit. This wil affect you, me, and everyone else.
For your sake, you'd better hope that things go in a diffrent direction. If you have or are planning on having kids, then you'd better start saving up half a million bucks for their house, 100k for private school, and 200k for college. Why? because thanks to prop 13, your kids will have to go to private school because the public schools are starved of money. 150k for college because in order for your kids to stay in California, they're going to have to become lawyers, doctors, or venture capitalists. 500k for a house because if you think RE will continue on as it is, then they'll need 500k as a down payment.
Which would you rather have?

You know these types of comments are so freaking typical of a "newbie" Ricky Recruit and yes Tsusiat you are correct! Asshat is sweating bullets b/c it knows in a heartbeat this could all turn around and momentum (which is all he has going for him b/c his comments are not fitting of a veteran homeowner) is about to turn. In fact the 11 block area he is touting may be the only part of the whole country that hasn't turned. I smell fear and I smell desperation. Long time homeowners that have been through several cycles are somewhat "on the fence" about homeownership. It just works out that way. In the end they are just looking forward to having it paid off. Asshats like "doingwell" are still panting with eagerness and foaming at the mouth like some rookie leaving a multi level marketing presentation. As a long time veteran homeowner these types make me want to vomit.

Many moderated comments approved. Scroll back if you want to read them. Lots of responses to that commedian earlier got hung up in moderation.

One last thing: If you weren't concerned in the least about housing prices, and that rather healthy salary you claim to make provided all the cushion to allow you to spout off generalities, then why are you even looking at a site like this one? It shouldn't even be crossing your mind. You should be out test driving some shiny new BMW model somethingoranother so you can be just like all the other dumb fucks driving across the bridge in the morning- in the same car. I smell a rat.

George,

Thank you for straightening me out.

One thing that we seem to always flirt with here but seldom come out and say is that there is a great deal of difference between "market equity" and "paid up equity".

Paid up equity can only be taken from you in the rarest of events. (Small town with plant closure, etc.) Market equity on the other hand is about as "solid" as trading on margin. The market giveth and the market taketh away! As we regress and 4 to 5 years of "market equity" begins to evaporate I'll give "doingwell" a job where getting a hairnet and plastic name tag will be considered a f@cking promotion!

John M,

Yeah I was a little dissapointed but it was worth it to see some really classy guys do their darndest to not let down the home town crowd. I mean down 9 to 1? It's Sunday night, it's raining to beat hell and these guys are hitting GRAND SLAMS to get back in the game? Incredible! There just seems to be so much determination to show 2005 wasn't a "fluke". Great game, and the Beavers live to fight another day in the College World Series!

"There are a few families such as ours where an annual income in the 3-500K range is just peachy to own a decent home in this area."

This guy sounds like he inherited his wealth. People who worked their way up tend not to disrespect the "nametag" class and have enough respect for a dollar not to have the "I can afford it, so what" attitude to overpriced anything. And like the inherited wealth types. he believes he got the VP job by talent and effort, daddy owning the company had nothing to do with it. Maybe he married into it.

Or he could just be a BS artist trying to brag on a phony income to strangers.

Headset,
I think it's the" I can afford it, so if you can't then you're a loser" attitude that I dislike. It bothers me because people that are intelligent generally understand that in order for a given area to be sucessful, you need to have a system set up so that low income, middle income, and upper income level residents have a reason to want to stay. Otherwise, there will be no workers to facilitate the revenues the upper classes enjoy. In other words, people such as our current troll will be hurting if the middle class pack their bags and leave them with no workforce.
Actually, I had a thought yesterday. I am meeting more and more people who are planning on leaving. Still others are here for long enough to save up for a home in another state. This makes California more like Mexico, with a unstable transient population that has no desire to lay down roots and invest in their communities. How is this good?

Headset,

I tend to go w/option #2 but either way the guy is an asshat. As you well know long time homeowners are kind of indifferent to short term trends and if anything tend to dread big run ups more than anything as they tend to drive taxes higher. Also, those with true wealth are much more concerned with the quality of life in their area than in how much their house is "Zillowing at" for the week. In calculating their net worth typically their home is but a small factor in their overall financial picture. Anyone bragging about their home's value (and little else in terms of investable assets) wouldn't get a second call from most financial planners and the like. Sorry, it's the truth.

DinOR

Well said.

I gotta ask, what's an "asshat?' Is that someone who was kicked too hard?

Headset,
that's a good question. There are many nonsensical names out there. I guess Asshat would be another word for stupid person. My personal favorite however, is Pissant.

"This makes California more like Mexico, with a unstable transient population that has no desire to lay down roots and invest in their communities. How is this good?"

Gee SHTF, I hope not. The California I remember from the '80s and '90s was beautiful place. Lack of community interest can turn a nice area into a slum.

Maybe the "doing wells" think that Cal cities can become like Monaco, where everyone is rich.

Asshat got popular about five years ago, from what I remember.

www.urbanddictionary.com is your friend.

One who has their head up their ass. Thus wearing their ass as a hat.

Headset,
Really hard to tell. While we as normal middle income, and in some cases upper income citizens complain about housing here, the absolute worst thing that could happen is that California DOES in fact become a place that only the truly rich can afford. That doesn't sound good to American ears, but sometimes I wonder if the US is just now catching up to Europe, where some parts are simply off limits to "plebians". It would be very sad if this were to eventually happen here.

Glad to see more of the people here that actually make this country so great.

Work hard and smart = success.

individual, grasping success for 1% of the population with no regard for how it was obtained. this is how 95% of the wealth ends up in 5% of the hands, and the devil take the hindmost. work hard at running that bank and gouging all the honest wage workers doing all the actual heavy lifting. yes, it's what makes a country great... a great chance for an internal revolution and external terrorism...

Diffrent Sean,
Exactly. I suspect that if prices come down even 0.10%, the RE industry will be all over it. " Buy now! the prices have come down!"
The bad part is that many WILL buy.

little thing in The Economist... sorry if it's already been posted:

The global housing boom - In come the waves - The Economist

Sean,
HOLY CRAP! Jesus. Did you see the numbers for Ireland? That makes the US pale in comparison, but on the other hand, it would have probably have been better to have compared California to Ireland instead of all 50 states- Iowa included_ in the mix.

By the way, speaking of Iowa,
While I know nothing about the state, or it's economy, I stumbled upon this a few days ago. Yes- it is in Iowa, but DAMN- this is a NICE place. It looks like a multi-million dollar home in anywhere California, but yet the price of this home, all the land, the barn and outbuildings is a mere 155k. Insane! I swear I would perhaps consider this if I had even a remote chance of finding work that paid me enough to live off of because I almost have enough to simply buy this place outright. Then again- it is in Iowa. Perhaps there's a reason it is priced as such.
http://www.sandyhookstudio.com/home/index.html

yeah, ireland's out of control... something to do with the software boom and resurgent economy and the fact that land around dublin is controlled by a cartel of developers and land speculators...

DAMN- this is a NICE place.

it's a Cotean utopia. you could always telecommute...

It's pretty sad that doingwellthankyou despises the middle class so much. That's not too cool; it's pretty un-American. Actually, it's very, very foolish.

You f-ck the middle class and you're f-cking yourself, this country's over, and with it, the civilized world. On a macro level, the middle class is the great balance wheel of the world's economy. On a micro level, say, in California, the same thing hold's true. This is why revolutionaries hate the middle class so much. They are a force of great order, stability and security.

So if you laugh at the middle class getting f-cked, you might as well bend over or go f-ckyourself, because you're f-cked in the head f-cker, and you'll be taking the high hard one soon enough!

--Scarface

Apparently, as logic would suggest, that $300K-$500K group is not enough to keep up with supply which has exploded by 7% in less than a month:

San Mateo (all price ranges):
6/8/06 1363
6/12/06 1428
6/19/06 1452
6/26/06 1467

San Jose (all price ranges):
6/8/06 3669
6/12/06 3709
6/19/06 3793
6/26/06 3915

mlslistings.com

Vince,

I thought you were on your cruise-ship condo "working hard"?

doingwellthankyou,

Congratulations on your success in our Economic Darwinian universe. For the record, its probably not a good idea to stir up "lower" class resentment. I think you'd find your law degree didn't help much in a true Darwinian situation when the Redwood City rioters enter Atherton after the next earthquake.

Work hard and smart = success.

That is what I used to believe.

But success is relative. You can be an extraordinary success at your work and still suck because your work sucks.

Be lucky!

Just, curious, how is doingwell NOT middle class? 300-500K, if true, is still in middle class IMO.

300-500K is most definitely middle class. The fact that one has to work implies middle-class membership. Upper class people can sustain GOOD lives WITHOUT working.

Another way to look at it: 300K x 4 = 1.2M = 1 Eichler in a (previously) lower-class Palo Alto neigborhood.

So happy to have been set straight by our new pet troll doingwellthankyou -- what a fucking douche-guzzler this guy is. The Cult of Real Estate is alive and well in the Bay Area. These smug elitists think they're all magnates of modern industry for having bought a 3/2 tract home in Livermore circa 2002, but once the panicked herd tramples them, it will be apparent to all that the Cult of Real Esate was never more than the Hale-Bopp Comet Suicide Cult v2.0.

A list of people who make less than $300k a year that Hometeam Pole-Smuggler classifies as the "hairnet/plastic nametag" crowd: Surgeons, lawyers, and CPAs.

The comparisons of 300k wages only fits Ca. In anywhere else USA, 300k IS upper class. hell- Even 70k is still considered upper level where I'm from.

2001 Figures. Upper limits at each income break. Meddle with middle all you want, 'dems the facts.

10th percentile $11K
20th percentile $18K
50th percentile $42K
80th percentile $83K
90th percentile $116K
95th percentile $150K

Source:
http://www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/p60-218.pdf
Page 26

If you figure your wife makes 80% of what you do (200% in Randy's case), whether she works or not determines whether you can buy a house or not. BA families either shortchange their kids by renting or outsourcing parenting. The DINKs (gays or straight) rule the roost.

How is renting shortchanging your kids? The house we rent is 4 bedrooms, with a large yard, safe neighborhood, decent local schools, and plenty of community activities. I call this better than trying to buy a fixer-upper in ghetto-land.

Apparently, as logic would suggest, that $300K-$500K group is not enough to keep up with supply which has exploded by 7% in less than a month:

Not to mention, there's only so many available positions in that income range. If this were anywhere near an average income, I wouldn't see those $2M+ homes in Marin sitting for 6-8 months or more.
I hope everyone realizes this is just another MP sighting.

How is renting shortchanging your kids? The house we rent is 4 bedrooms, with a large yard, safe neighborhood, decent local schools, and plenty of community activities. I call this better than trying to buy a fixer-upper in ghetto-land.

You'll finally want to put down long term roots. By renting, you risk having to uproot your kids (schools, local friends) on your landlords whim.

Still, I agree, this is the better short term solution in the current climate. We've chosen the same thing (3 BR, but large yard as well). Perhaps renting equals short changing Mom, as there's no way I'm retiling the subpar bathroom on a rental.

Well, then I think 300-500K is upper-middle class then.

SQT, I would say 1M+ is upper-middle class. The line between upper-middle and lower-upper is all about assets and passive income.

SHTF,

Kudos and 'good on ya mate'!

Now that BOTH of our daughters will be in college w/one set to marry right after grad. we feel the fact that we don't have all of the luggage that comes along w/homedebtorship allows us every opportunity! We're able to help them not just on the money front but more importantly, TIME! Now, out from under the crushing obligations of maint. and upkeep Mrs. DinOR has all the time in the world to do "bridal stuff" and visit schools w/daughter #2. Had we the "old homestead" I know the stress level of the additional obligations would be through the roof!

"trying to buy a fixer upper in ghetto-land"

Ahem, speaking of which I just got back from visiting with a client and on the way back I had to go right past our old place! I haven't seen it in at least 2 years! Well I must admit, the place is in good hands. No major improvements to speak of just a lot of elbow grease in all the right places.

However;

As this is rural Oregon folks do pretty much as they please and the neighbors (the neighbors) have their places looking like they are virtually all in some stage of foreclosure for crissakes! The gravel road is so over grown with scrub trees and cane berry certainly only ONE car at a time may pass. Lawns overgrown, no active maint. to speak of and several places looking very much abandoned! It was a sad experience yet at the same time reassuring b/c had I stayed there this is what I would have to look at (and deal with ) everyday! Good riddance my former neighbors. Obviously hunting, fishing and getting good and drunk have taken presidence over common sense home "ownership". Bye-bye.

To me, ‘upper class’ doesn’t start until your income stream doesn’t require you to get up to got to work.

Exactly. High life + no work = upper class.

Becoming a survivalist in the mountains (no need to work!) does not make you a member in the upper class.