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Jobs are coming back!!!


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2012 Feb 17, 10:33am   44,705 views  141 comments

by SFace   ➕follow (7)   💰tip   ignore  

Little have been said about the improving job situation.

The commerce department reported about 243K new jobs created in January 2012, notwithstanding government layoffs. Furthermnore, unemployment claims appears to be at the lowest level since the great recession.

These indicators are the most positive they have been for at least 4+ years. (Note that I am not saying the job situation is good, but it is obvious things are developing for the better) It appears the econoomy is turning the corner and finally lead by jobs and ultimately consumer confidence which will surely lead to housing price turnaround.

The next follow-up leading indicator will be consumer confidence which I predict will be up.

Last year around this time, gasoline price, Japan earthquake and Greece pretty much killed the positive momentum. Am really hoping that gas doesn't slow things down again. 2012 may be the best yet.

http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm
http://www.economicpopulist.org/content/unemployment-83-january-2012-243000-jobs-really

#housing

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66   B.A.C.A.H.   2012 Feb 20, 5:14am  

Passing,

thanks for the input about Chico St., I am well aware about that school.

I'd like our "Civil" Servant Doctor Professor to share his Wisdom with us about CSU Chino campus.

Didn't know there was one there.

67   TPB   2012 Feb 20, 5:35am  

Nomograph says

You sound like a real negative guy. Employers go to great lengths to keep people like you out of positions of importance; pessimists bring down productivity and are toxic to morale.

I think the bulk of the folks that can't get back to work. It's because they took a pull off of the Social teet. On one hand you had an open policy of the Government encouraging people to run don't walk to the nearest "out sourced" Unemployment center, and register for your weekly government stipend. Then we called for 99 week long unemployment benefits. These private organizations, are then selling that data back to the corporations they serve.
So you have a guy, that should be worth over 125K a year, settling for a $575 biweekly paycheck. And to be a drain for up to 99 weeks.
What organization would be keen on hiring that hunk of dead weight back in their organization? If it doesn't work out for you. There's a great probability, that rather than this person would look for work else were. He will sit on his can and drain your company out of, $28,000.

I fell for that in 2002 when I was laid off, and I listened to people about "Oh you have to register for unemployment right away". My resume was toxic, after I did that. Before that I never had a problem in marketing my self for a job. But as soon as I went into the "Workforce One" systems, no company would even talk me.
Not to mention the huge ordeal you have to go through, is a greater hindrance to finding work, than if I were left to my own devices.
I spent more time keeping the required paper work involved and the in person appointments at the "Workforce One" location center. Than I did actually looking for work. The whole process works against professionals trying to pick their life back up and get back into the swing. The whole process was designed to place desperate low income people, into any menial job. Not to get people worth their meddle into a fitting high paying position.

That is what Monster, Laders, and other job boards are for. More over, you just came off a high paying position. If you don't have some cushion(I know saving is frowned upon with the current federal policy) then companies see you as a desperate liability, when you are job searching, and your credit has taken a hit in the last few months, because you didn't plan ahead for a rainy day.

My advice for any middle to higher income worker laid off, fake it until you make it. The minute you let the system know you're bleeding, the Sharks will be in for the kill. Your better panhandling, while you wait for the economy to improve. You can tell future interviewers you took a sabbatical, or time off to develop private ideas.

But stay away from the unemployment agency, unless you're ready to retire, or not work in your profession again, until notice.

68   JodyChunder   2012 Feb 21, 3:15pm  

Nomograph says

It's probably your negative attitude that is hurting you; employers go to great lengths to weed out negative people from the candidate pool. Pessimists are detrimental to productivity and poisonous to morale.

I totally like your thinking on this and I agree. If someone farts in an elevator instead of acting all negative force yourself to gulp in that brown gas and even smile! Maybe even if ask them if they could fart again. Pretend it smells like your favoritest supper! I guarantee as soon as you step off that elevator you will be 10X more successful and productive in life than you were when you got on!

69   JodyChunder   2012 Feb 21, 3:17pm  

just_passing_through says

The kid makes plenty of money and is using it to get a license flying helicopters.

I used to be an underwater welder in my twenties. How I got my start. I am now rich. I buy houses.

70   bighorse   2012 Feb 21, 4:08pm  

Indeed I feel that jobs are coming back. I made a change in career that doubled my current salary.

Since I purchased a home already and my old salary worked, this increase is all disposable income.

71   JodyChunder   2012 Feb 21, 4:15pm  

double does not mean as much since the dollar goes less than halfway to where it did.

buy houses

72   JodyChunder   2012 Feb 21, 4:21pm  

CL says

We do! That's why I just hired a super-sunny dispositioned individual. Almost entirely for morale!

I find these people tend to be on serious medication or are just plain old dorks.

73   tdeloco   2012 Feb 21, 5:36pm  

Nomograph says

Pessimists seldom realize they are pessimists; they always claim to be "realists."

I believe in being a "realist". Trust me, if I really think that things are going great, I'd be the first to tell you.

Optimism is great during good economic times. But if you're always optimistic no matter what, then you're just deluding yourself. Both optimists and pessimists only see half of the equation. Realists look at real world data and are capable of changing their mind.

74   TPB   2012 Feb 21, 11:25pm  

Realists asks for the unfiltered data, that the chart was comprised from.

75   SFace   2012 Feb 28, 2:11am  

SFace says

The next follow-up leading indicator will be consumer confidence which I predict will be up.

Here it is.

http://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had decreased in January, increased in February. The Index now stands at 70.8 (1985=100), up from 61.5 in January. The Present Situation Index increased to 45.0 from 38.8. The Expectations Index rose to 88.0 from 76.7 in January.

next up, February jobs report, I expect around 200K.

It is developing nicely except gas.

76   RentingForHalfTheCost   2012 Feb 28, 3:10am  

TPB says

robertoaribas says

bring on $4 gas, my properties are all located near light rail and/or close in to employment centers. I ride my bicycle to work..

Wow Robert, you don't say? What is your secret for being unscathed with the important drawbacks of higher gas prices. Like paying double for minimal food, than we were before this all started, because gas is more expensive, everyone is paying 20% inflation a year, for everything across the board, as a direct result of our last and current President Rat fink bastards selling the American people out to Wallstreet and greedy ass speculators.

I think that's great Robert, you live in your own little Snow Globe, wow, no I mean WOW! how in the hell did you fit your over inflated since of bike riding self, in such a little space?

William E Baughb

+1

77   bubblesitter   2012 Feb 28, 4:31am  

SFace says

Jobs are coming back!!!

But,Are home prices coming back???

78   MAGA   2012 Feb 28, 7:51am  

Jobs are coming back? Pay off debt! Pay off debt! Pay off debt!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

79   rootvg   2012 Feb 28, 11:14am  

As my marketing prof used to say twenty five years ago...IT DEPENDS. Our top storage guy at my present employer (he's the best I've ever known) says good systems engineering talent is always in demand. It's about a lot of things. Technical knowledge is the job but compatibility with other members of the team and then a willingness and ability to learn and adapt must all be part of the mix. You'd be stunned and amazed by the number of people I've worked with in this business who I would not admit to my home. It's scary.

80   rootvg   2012 Feb 28, 11:35am  

bubblesitter says

SFace says

Jobs are coming back!!!

But,Are home prices coming back???

Eventually? Sure. Folks who said America was kaput in the Great Depression (we knew people who had been through it, have heard all the stories about the banks and FDR confiscating gold and folks walking through two feet of snow to get to their jobs) couldn't have been more wrong.

A former management prof of mine was an acquaintance of Louis Rukeyser who always said people had been betting against us since 1776 and they were always wrong. Warren Buffett will tell you the exact same thing.

People who walk around crowing about 99 percenters are either morons or trying to manipulate the rest of us. I'm not persuaded. If America is done, why do people keep flooding in here from Asia? Why do you think all those Asian students are spending their time and parents money at Berkeley for if not to get out there and make money?

Do we have problems? Yeah. Our currency is shit and we have to fix that, probably with another recession. Remember 1980-1982? That's gonna happen again and it HAS to because we can't get from where we are right now to a growth economy. The Fed says there is no inflation. They quit reporting the level of M3 in 2005 and then we took food and fuel out of the consumer price index. I mean, what in the hell else do most people buy?

Look for Paul Volcker, Act II. You heard it here first. He may not be the guy sitting at the desk testifying before Congress but he'll draw the map. You just watch and see.

81   RentingForHalfTheCost   2012 Feb 28, 12:37pm  

Houses beat inflation by only 0.4% annually from 1890-2004. Since 2004, that number is probably right around 0%. The new idea of home prices coming back is really prices staying stagnant. We have been fortunately to feel like houses always appreciate (at least up to 2007), but the reality is a house is one of the worst investment you can make. Investing in wigs would do you better over time. Buy a house because you want shelter and can afford the purchase. Don't buy because you think you can sell later and get your money back and more.

83   StoutFiles   2012 Mar 8, 11:12pm  

Of course jobs are coming back.

1. Person loses job making X dollars.
2. Person stays on unemployment hoping to find job that pays X dollars.
3. Unemployment finally runs out. Person takes job making much less than X.

So yes, there are jobs, but not at the same salary as they once were. That won't help the housing market.

84   bubblesitter   2012 Mar 8, 11:15pm  

StoutFiles says

So yes, there are jobs, but not at the same salary as they once were. That won't help the housing market.

Bingo!

85   freak80   2012 Mar 8, 11:47pm  

Yup. It's the same pattern that's been happening since the 70's. Good jobs are lost to China and India and replaced by shit-jobs in the service sector.

86   bubblesitter   2012 Mar 8, 11:56pm  

wthrfrk80 says

Yup. It's the same pattern that's been happening since the 70's. Good jobs are lost to China and India and replaced by shit-jobs in the service sector.

Te good,bad and ugly part of globalization!

87   tatupu70   2012 Mar 9, 12:05am  

lol--I figured this would bring out the bears and glass half emptiers.

88   MisdemeanorRebel   2012 Mar 9, 12:06am  

rootvg says

Eventually? Sure. Folks who said America was kaput in the Great Depression (we knew people who had been through it, have heard all the stories about the banks and FDR confiscating gold and folks walking through two feet of snow to get to their jobs) couldn't have been more wrong.

Thanks to game changing massive reform that was just short of a revolution, called the New Deal.

Not because of a little patience.

89   rootvg   2012 Mar 9, 12:10am  

thunderlips11 says

rootvg says

Eventually? Sure. Folks who said America was kaput in the Great Depression (we knew people who had been through it, have heard all the stories about the banks and FDR confiscating gold and folks walking through two feet of snow to get to their jobs) couldn't have been more wrong.

Thanks to game changing massive reform that was just short of a revolution, called the New Deal.

Not because of a little patience.

Homo Economicus. Like Bigfoot, reported to exist in fantasy books, but never seen in the wild.

We know for a fact that Roosevelt's reform made the Depression worse. Things were getting better around 1936-1937 when we took another hit after all the government money dried up. I think it's gonna happen again with another recession.

90   tatupu70   2012 Mar 9, 12:14am  

rootvg says

We know for a fact that Roosevelt's reform made the Depression worse. Things were getting better around 1936-1937 when we took another hit after all the government money dried up. I think it's gonna happen again with another recession.

Wow--talk about revisionist history. Let's analyze that statement. Things got better under FDR's reform until 1936/37 when the reforms basically stopped. Then things got worse. To summarize--reforms = better, no reforms = worse.

Your conclusion is that the reforms were the problem??

91   freak80   2012 Mar 9, 12:14am  

rootvg says

we took another hit after all the government money dried up. I think it's gonna happen again with another recession.

The Dow tanked 500 points right after the debt-ceiling fiasco. What does that tell us about how much of our economy is dependent on government money?
tatupu70 says

lol--I figured this would bring out the bears and glass half emptiers.

Who said the glass was half empty? It's more like one-fourths full.

92   MisdemeanorRebel   2012 Mar 9, 12:16am  

rootvg says

We know for a fact that Roosevelt's reform made the Depression worse. Things were getting better around 1936-1937 when we took another hit after all the government money dried up. I think it's gonna happen again with another recession.

tatupu70 says

Wow--talk about revisionist history.

Word.

?w=510

93   bubblesitter   2012 Mar 9, 12:17am  

rootvg says

Eventually? Sure.

When? after Japan style lost decades?

94   rootvg   2012 Mar 9, 12:18am  

thunderlips11 says

rootvg says

We know for a fact that Roosevelt's reform made the Depression worse. Things were getting better around 1936-1937 when we took another hit after all the government money dried up. I think it's gonna happen again with another recession.

tatupu70 says

Wow--talk about revisionist history.

Word.

?w=510

Homo Economicus. Like Bigfoot, reported to exist in fantasy books, but never seen in the wild.

What you don't know is that I've spent years with people who went through the Depression. I'm betting you haven't.

Or, I could be wrong.

95   MisdemeanorRebel   2012 Mar 9, 12:24am  

rootvg says

What you don't know is that I've spent years with people who went through the Depression. I'm betting you haven't.

Anecdotes make for poor evidence.

Do you have any hard facts to support your claim about the New Deal making things worse?

96   dunnross   2012 Mar 9, 12:27am  

We cannot have any real growth in the economy until the private debt is completely de-leveraged. Gov't ZIRP (zero interest rates), while helping the debt de-leveraging is killing lending, because, at these low rates and high risk of foreclosure, banks don't want to lend money for housing. ZIRP is also killing savers, so young people cannot save any money to buy the houses from the retiring baby boomers. All those things have to be reconciled, in order for the jobs and real growth to come back. The only solution is lower house prices.

97   rootvg   2012 Mar 9, 12:27am  

thunderlips11 says

rootvg says

What you don't know is that I've spent years with people who went through the Depression. I'm betting you haven't.

Anecdotes aren't evidence.

Do you have any hard facts to support your claim about the New Deal making things worse?

Homo Economicus. Like Bigfoot, reported to exist in fantasy books, but never seen in the wild.

And this isn't a parlor game and I'm not in your court of law.

We had what was basically a third set of grandparents, and THEIR parents lost all their money in the Depression. I spent the better part of thirty years hearing their stories.

Where do you think I learned all this stuff?

98   tatupu70   2012 Mar 9, 12:33am  

rootvg says

We had what was basically a third set of grandparents, and THEIR parents lost all their money in the Depression. I spent the better part of thirty years hearing their stories.

Yep--the depression was a horrible, horrible time. Which is why I can't understand why many of the posters here seem to want to relive it.

Raising interest rates, cutting government spending, etc. are a recipe for Great Depression II.

And just so I understand--how does your knowing people who lost everything during the Depression lend any credence to your ridiculous statement that FDR's policies made things worse?

99   rootvg   2012 Mar 9, 12:40am  

dunnross says

We cannot have any real growth in the economy until the private debt is completely de-leveraged. Gov't ZIRP (zero interest rates), while helping the debt de-leveraging is killing lending, because, at these low rates and high risk of foreclosure, banks don't want to lend money for housing. ZIRP is also killing savers, so young people cannot save any money to buy the houses from the retiring baby boomers. All those things have to be reconciled, in order for the jobs and real growth to come back. The only solution is lower house prices.

There are lower house prices, but not in most parts of the Bay Area.

As I keep saying, I was raised in this business. I don't see any reason to believe that desirable parts of this region are going to come into price ranges most of us here would see as "affordable". They're simply too much in demand and there are too many foreign investors (Asians) out there ready to pounce. You can give me all the charts and graphs you want but at the end of the day it's my money and I'm gonna do whatever the hell I want. I saw an opportunity, I took advantage of it and so far the people telling me it was a good idea outnumber those who don't about three to one.

This is always the battle that goes on between academics who say you can't do this or that and the people in the trenches who go out there and do it. After that, it's usually the academics who want some dickhead from the government to come in and make things "fair", whatever the fuck they think that means on any given day.

If you can't pay the prices here, MOVE. We almost did but (as I said) we got lucky in the right neighborhood and the people liked us and we ended up buying something out of an estate. All the kids from that family live in the same neighborhood where daddy built the houses. The oldest brother comes up to check on us about once each day.

100   rootvg   2012 Mar 9, 12:41am  

tatupu70 says

rootvg says

We had what was basically a third set of grandparents, and THEIR parents lost all their money in the Depression. I spent the better part of thirty years hearing their stories.

Yep--the depression was a horrible, horrible time. Which is why I can't understand why many of the posters here seem to want to relive it.

Raising interest rates, cutting government spending, etc. are a recipe for Great Depression II.

And just so I understand--how does your knowing people who lost everything during the Depression lend any credence to your ridiculous statement that FDR's policies made things worse?

If raising interest rates and cutting government spending are a recipe for Great Depression II, why didn't we have one in the mid to late eighties?

101   RentingForHalfTheCost   2012 Mar 9, 12:46am  

robertoaribas says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Houses beat inflation by only 0.4% annually from 1890-2004. Since 2004, that number is probably right around 0%.

So lets see: I buy a home that rents for 10% or more of price, with a loan at around 4%... AND it increases at the inflation rate? Inflation is quite low right now, but let's use 2% as a goal. With 2% appreciation, ANY purchase at near the same monthly outlay as renting becomes an extremely good investment long term.

Buying in areas where houses are cheap makes good sense. Like you said if you can rent for 10% of price then go for it. Impossible to do that in most areas of the country, especially the BA. BTW, real inflation (you know the one with energy and food) is running more like 6-7%. Don't listen to the results from a new formula that was designed to shield us from the truth. Lets do a 1-for-2 reverse split on the dollar and then post headlines saying "House prices have gone up 100%!" Let them fool the masses, but not us. i.e. watch the shells closely as they move, but also check the table for the trap door. That ball might move around if you are not looking hard enough. :)

http://etfdailynews.com/2012/03/08/inflation-how-the-government-lies-about-the-real-inflation-rate-uup-udn-tlt-tbt/

102   tatupu70   2012 Mar 9, 12:49am  

rootvg says

If raising interest rates and cutting government spending are a recipe for Great Depression II, why didn't we have one in the mid to late eighties?

Well, you have to look at what was going on at the time. There is no single recipe that works all the time. The economic conditions of the mid to late 80s are vastly different than what is going on now. You agree, right?

Therefore the economic policies must be different.

103   MisdemeanorRebel   2012 Mar 9, 12:52am  

rootvg says

If raising interest rates and cutting government spending are a recipe for Great Depression II, why didn't we have one in the mid to late eighties?

There was no cutting government spending in the mid to late 80s.

Edit: Another chart:

104   rootvg   2012 Mar 9, 12:53am  

tatupu70 says

rootvg says

If raising interest rates and cutting government spending are a recipe for Great Depression II, why didn't we have one in the mid to late eighties?

Well, you have to look at what was going on at the time. There is no single recipe that works all the time. The economic conditions of the mid to late 80s are vastly different than what is going on now. You agree, right?

Therefore the economic policies must be different.

Volcker's actions between 1979 and 1983 set us up for the twenty year growth spurt that followed. Geez, everyone knows that.

I think we're going to get a new President and Congress and Fed chief who are going to do precisely the same thing. I think they have to.

105   rootvg   2012 Mar 9, 12:59am  

thunderlips11 says

rootvg says

If raising interest rates and cutting government spending are a recipe for Great Depression II, why didn't we have one in the mid to late eighties?

Homo Economicus. Like Bigfoot, reported to exist in fantasy books, but never seen in the wild.

Here again, it's all about results. If you add up the number of years Republicans versus Democrats have served in the White House since World War II, I think you'll find Republicans come out very well.

Reagan's deficits were so bad because he had a Democratic House to deal with. That won't be a problem for the next guy. Paul Ryan is already meeting with various movers and shakers in both parties, on the sly. They know this president and this administration are dog shit. They can't come out and say it but his polls are what they are, and that means it's just over.

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