patrick.net

How about best wine you’ve had for under $100?

Pinot Noir, Robert Sinskey, 2001

I do not drink much. So please forgive my ignorance.

New Topic

Do people move more often when prices are rising? It seems to me that people can move to a larger house when their old one sells quickly.

When prices are falling, people must stay put for much longer. Even if they want to buy a bigger but cheaper foreclosure they cannot, because the sale of their old house won't even cover what they owe on the mortgage.

What are your thoughts Hobbson?

It seems to me that people can move to a larger house when their old one sells quickly.

It is easier to move up when

1. there is significant price compression
2. the move-up house is priced above the said compression, and
3. credit is easy and cheap

does anyone here own mexican real estate?

only if they live in california, texas or new mexico...

Anybody realize that their rent is actually paid with after tax dollars?

So, in essence, your real rent is about 1.4X what you’re paying now to get your gross rent wherease homeowners have their interest and their profits subsidized by the gov’t?

My rent 2K, 2K X 1.4 = 2800, house is "worth" ~850K, just the fucking mortgage payment is > 5K, not including insurance, property tax, maintainence etc. So tell me you small dick maggot fucking troll, why the fuck would I buy? Oh, yeah, I forgot so i can flip the house in 2 years because it only goes up. Hmmm, seems $anta Barbara is down 9.44% so far, and there are 44% more listings that this time last year. do me a favor you 5'3" piece of shit, go back to wishing your fucking big assed whore of a wife would put down the fucking ben & jerrys and turn american idol off so you take in her fat assed glory.

SX,

Wrong calculation. Only the interest & tax part of your house payment is sunk money. The principal payment should be treated as saving. Of course you should factor in the opportunity cost of the principal payment that you could've otherwise used in productive investments (i.e., CDs in Iceland just prior to the crash of Icelandic krona).

But, 850K x (6% mortgage interest + 1% real estate tax) = roughly 60K. Take away tax deduction. Your net payment is 42K. That's about 35K/year and 3K per month.

3K is still 50% more than 2K rent. Not worth it. Castrate that 5'3" guy's dick.

look, guys, we could actually start a joint effort site fairly cheaply that uses more sophisticated and still free blogging php software, i.e. one that includes a text editor toolbar, the ability to edit own posts, no posting problems, proper member profiles, a chatroom (god help us), etc. i've already had a discussion with patrick about that, and if he had more time he would look at it. there's no reason we can't put something together, and include patrick's links or similar.

e.g. http://www.phpbb.com/

i'd do it, except i'm trying to raise my own site in time for a state election, which i keep putting off...

oh shit… tammy bruce the lesbian republican is basically saying that WE ARE GOING INTO IRAN. Fuck that stupid bitch. I am sick of this stupid terrorist shit.

you should write to her and let her know... politicians are amazed when constituents actually write to them and engage in a democratic political process...

This Tammy chick looks quite masculine. I like her (as a person or a man).

It's funny. These days in Amerika, men look feminine and women look masculine.

Boy, ‘ol DS sure dont mind flapping his lips about America while swatting flies in rooville.

actually, aussies own about half of america right now... do a google search on 'what rupert murdoch owns' and look up frank lowy and westfield in wikipedia. that's right, the westfield shopping mall chain in NoCal and SoCal -- $42 bn in assets... owned by an aussie... and rupert murdoch own half your influential press and Fox, and makes and breaks govts on a whim...

and guess who leased out the WTC retail space 6 weeks before 9/11? westfield america...

all your base are belong to us....

it has nothing to do with the land, its the government’s fruits that they covet.

i bet if the mexicans realised what the gold and oil was worth in 1848 they would've put up more of a fight...

All your shopping mall and newspaper belong to us...

SQT Said:

I have a question for some of the other Patrick.net regulars. Am I wrong in being a little annoyed that Patrick now wants to charge for the housing article links?

But as one of the blog moderators, I spend easily as much time per day, checking in, clearing the spam from the moderation queue and watching threads when I have them. And now I’m thinking it’s not worth the effort if the guy who created the blog finds the task to onerous without pay.

I too had the exact same response. I can sort of understand Patrick charging readers or occasional posters, but thread moderators/authors? It's not as though we're getting compensated for our time (and drawing eyeballs with our brilliant topics & commentary :-) ). I don't mind donating considerable time because I thoroughly enjoy the debate and company here (and occasionally learn a useful thing or two), but now I've got to pay for links?? Hmmm...

FYI: Farm program pays people who don’t farm - Federal subsidies to owners of old, unused farmland top $1.3 billion

Your tax dollars at work... or non-work.

My favorite "money quotes":

"This was an unintended consequence of the farm bill," said former representative Charles W. Stenholm, the west Texas Democrat who was once the ranking member on the House Agriculture Committee. "Instead of maintaining a rice industry in Texas, we basically contributed to its demise."

"The original intent was to make a step in the direction of eliminating farm programs," said then-House Majority Leader Richard K. Armey (R-Tex.), who led an unsuccessful fight in the 1990s to trim the subsidies. "By 1998, there was no zeal left."

Instead of cutting, Congress ended up expanding the program, now known as direct and countercyclical payments. A program intended to cost $36 billion over seven years instead topped $54 billion.

I can sort of understand Patrick charging readers or occasional posters, but thread moderators/authors?

he will start MLM blogging next... woops, he already has :lol:

Shmend Rick Says:
http://rebubble.ning.com

that was quick, rick

build it and they will come...

HARM Says:
FYI: Farm program pays people who don’t farm - Federal subsidies to owners of old, unused farmland top $1.3 billion
Your tax dollars at work… or non-work.

the face of pure evil... CONSERVATIVE republican congressmen doling out upper class welfare and dispossessing tenant farmers... we need more CONSERVATIVES in power from top to bottom...

i didn't realise tammy bruce is just another ann coulter, except uglier... not even a politician, just another rupert murdoch stooge...

SQT Says:

"I have a question for some of the other Patrick.net regulars. Am I wrong in being a little annoyed that Patrick now wants to charge for the housing article links?"

Yes and no.

Yes, because he's built a great site and deserves as much $$$ as he can get.

No, because one of the things I liked about this site was checking out the daily articles with my coffee. I won't pay for them, though.

Just my two cents.

:o~~ The Mouse

surfer-x Says:

'My house is...“worth” ~850K...'
_____

Exactly!

Nice parenthesis around the word "worth."

Says so much with so little.

"Worth" my ass! Maybe in Monopoly money or bubble bucks.

I'd rather be a hedonist. If humanity is indeed doomed in its present incarnation, I might as well put off having kids and enjoy myself in the mean time.

Anyone here thought about the housing bubble as the outgrowth of the tech bust + outsourcing + threat of terrorism? I read Tulipmania a couple years back and I recall that book posits the tulip bubble and most other bubbles are accompanies by a sense of social upheaval and insecurity. Thus, the usual social norms and checks are suspended in favor of getting rich quick and the fear of being left behind.

At least the Dutch have a thriving flower bulb industry to show for their tulip bust. I wonder what positive contribution this housing bubble could have to American society.

SQT,

RE: The state of the blog here, a couple of observations and opinions I have...

* There are a huge number of new readers now that the housing bubble has gone mainstream. That has increased the normal: spam, trolls, newbie questions, etc.

* Arguing the existence of the housing bubble issue has become a bit of a non-issue, so now even the moderators/authors are find themselves at odds over the next level of detailed debate. Hard versus soft landing, liquidity versus inflation, urban planning versus exburbia, etc.

* Those issues used to be related to supporting theories about whether there was a housing bubble or not, and why one formed. Now they're about how to make a better future...a subject on which people will widely disagree.

* Most topics now quickly digress or go clearly off in the weeds after about 10 posts. That's not a big deal, it was always the case. But now the digressions all go to generally the same place: liberals-v-conservatives, people with issues-v-those they offend, anarchists, trolls, troublemakers, drunks-v-anyone left reading.

* The level of name calling, offensive generalizations, and just down right immature nastiness has exploded. I had been trying to get Dave Barry of the Open MLS initiative to write a guest piece here. He declined recently after reading the site and determining it wasn't worth his time. If a guy trying to break the Realtor(tm) cartel in CA cannot find it worthwhile to use Patrick.net to spread his message and campaign for his initiative, then there is a problem.

* Most of our long-time readers and contributors are either gone or rarely participate anymore.

My personal opinion is that Patrick.net now suffers from the fate of all lightly/unmoderated open forums once they get enough readers. The diversity which once created a lot of value has now degraded into name calling and shouting matches and escalating levels of bigotry. Most people have limited time and will eventually decide it's not worth while to spend it here. Call it the f@ckedcompany.com fate. That was once a very useful forum...until it went mainstream...it is now a wasteland.

astrid, i think the housing boom reflects a retreat from a shaky sharemarket where people realised they could do all their dough, they couldn't trust the system after enron etc, and that individual shares could lose all their value overnight... the security of bricks and mortar beckoned... and low interest rates... and spruikers pushing their $5 000 get rich quick courses -- and residential real estate is easy to understand, everyone lives in a house...

you're right, just as there are even now tulips in holland, i predict you will still find houses dotted around america in 100 years... ;)

DS,

Except that most people don't understand residential housing at all. They don't comprehend the nitty gritties of codes, taxing schemes, home owner association rules, school districts, mortgages, debt collections, etc. Unlike stocks and bonds, there is virtually no oversight over residential housing because it was not considered to be a financial instrument.

Furthermore, one of the major points of the current boom, and one frequently noted by DinOR, is that houses built today are of a terrible and will not last 100 years and are pretty terrible living spaces.

SR,

I do disagree with the Democratic party's stand on illegal immigration and tons of other things. However, I disagree with the Republicans on even more things. Furthermore, the Republicans are indeed the ones in control of all three branches of government, if they wanted to act, they had the last 6 years to do so. Instead of doing a good job, the Republican leadership has created demonized "lib" strawmen to distract its followers from their terrible record.

So you can vote Democrats (as I do, because I firmly believe it is the much less bad option) or you can vote independent, but I really do believe that anyone who still supports Republican national leadership is not politically teachable. That is, they care more about finding a scapegoat (me) than finding a government that will make their life better.

yeah, agreed to all that. i don't know if they sit down and spreadsheet all the ongoing costs, despite the fact they are treating it like 'a business' or investment. the spruiker at the $5 000 course didn't tell them about any of that. there's no doubt money can be made in holding property, lots of people have done it historically, but the market will saturate before too long, and it's fundamentally exploitative of a pool of renters. some of them will be burnt, some of them may be lucky or chose well. all of them think they are setting themselves up for retirement.

re shoddy construction, although it's really land speculation vs the cost of the actual construction on the land (backed by rents to be gathered), it starts to smack of the stratospheric P/E ratios we've seen elsewhere... that's irrational exuberance for ya....

randy, sorry to find you so maudlin this am ;) i seriously think many of the problems of the site are to do with the liquidity and limitations of the limited (wordpress) blog format -- the threads just go on endlessly, can't be edited, don't require member subscriptions, there are no static areas set aside for the glossary or broad statements concerning the housing boom (such as a dave barry piece), and only patrick's links to provide much evidential substance. the site is barely searchable -- you can only use the limited browser text search feature per page, which crashes as often as not in IE6 due to the length of the page. you have to be physically present when a thread is conducted to make any sense of it, which is more suited to a chat room discussion, even if you edited out the flames and various digressions.

the site needs more powerful software that lets threads be moderated more strongly, for posts to be edited by the poster, and provides fixed areas for research and analysis and significant posts, and probably a chat room for all the ephemeral stuff to be vented. or provides a 'political venting' forum or forums away from the housing discussion, etc. i really think it's half to do with a problem of structure, because people will be people, and it's open slather. i find it very hard to harvest useful links to other sites and blogs because of the above also, you have to sift them from dozens of almost unsearchable historical threads. otherwise, i think it follows the pattern of just about every online community which attracts a bunch of 'regulars', who don't always see eye to eye -- you find similar comments everywhere in the blogosphere. it's an interesting experiment which should perhaps be archived while a new format rises from the ashes like a mighty realtor-crushing, guru-incinerating phoenix... the site i was proposing to do was going to be analysis only, with the option of blogging on the side...

i also find the same 'insights' about the market being repeated over and over afresh in each new thread. these insights could be summarised in one place for reference...

i don't find some of the other blogs which use google blogger to work too well in format either, as they ofnte just post dozens of lines of recent real estate prices for people to gaze at, which is short on analysis and commentary.

IMHO...

before i go to bed, i woiuld like to say i think many of the contributors here are quite brilliant, clearly very talented in a great variety of ways...

while some are left or right (or anarchists), agree or disagree with global warming or urban consolidation theory, they are mostly all put out by the housing boom, and share that one distressing economic factor in common -- it shows both the incredible diversity of views and opinions that can make for an interesting and colourful debate and an interesting and colourful society, but it also shows how the rug can be pulled so equally on the generation Y cohort, regardless of creed or religion. that's certainly something to think about.

p.s. summer temperatures are 30 C (86) in london right now, and 21 C (70) overnight -- global warming's definitely kicked in, and it's time to move back ;)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?world=0008

Well, realism isn't as fun as bitching about how other people blew it. Plus, God Bless America is not a political position, it is an insubstantial slogan. The GOP is supposed to be a viable political party, not an outlet of self express for people who obtain self esteem by degrading people who are different from them.

RE: State of the Blog

Randy H, you have some very good points --and the decisions by Dave Barry to steer clear of us is sadly telling :-( . A similar lack of control and degeneration into childish name-calling and pointless political ranting has ruined the WSJ RE bog. Even so, I am (like DS) not quite so pessimistic about the future of Patrick.net and the scourge of this site's exploding popularity and it's "diversity" of viewpoints.

You argue that threads should be more tightly moderated. I would agree, but of course this will pretty much require FT (compensated?) blog moderators, not the casual PT "volunteer army" we have today.

DS argues that the site requires better organization, format and technology --and recommends a full redesign. I concur. This site could definitely benefit from some static content (similar to Piggington) written by moderators, which outlines the basic arguments, terminology and research, which form the Patrick.net "world view". This could serve as a content "anchor" and introduce newbies to the the basic HB/RE concepts, so we are not constantly forced to repeat the same reseach, terms & arguments ad naseum.

I would also recommend requiring registration (currently optional/only required for thread authoring), which would significantly cut down on the amount of auto-spamming & casual trolling, plus give moderators a more powerful "stick" to deal with the more determined trolls. Not sure about requiring a subscription, though. This might drive away most regulars (as the lack of enthusiasm for the links "subscription" service has revealed).

Perhaps we should summarize our recommendations and submit them to Patrick.

Btw, I'm checking out for the rest of the day. Happy pre-July 4th to everyone!

@newtroll, aka mybelief

Thank you, it is much more clear to me now, I will go put down say 20% or 170K on a house "worth" 850K, my payment will then be $4,991.26 (mortgage) + $850 for prop tax, plus ~400 for maintenance = $6241. But thats ok because property in Santa barbara is only dropping at ~9% or so. It should only take me about two years to lose all my money. Oh but according you and the trollarmy (realtwhore?) it only goes up. Not the case anymore chump. If you are a realtwhore you really should tell the truth as you make money either way. What was the point of your post again? Oh thats right trolls just like attention. Now that you have gotten yours kindly go back to craigslist.

Randy H, sorry for the degradation into name calling but I cannot stomach trolls. I think troll postings should be deleted on site.

SQT I'm with you on the charging but I also feel that patrick has expences for this site and he is only asking for a very small sum, $10. not a big deal. It's worth it to me to get the links as I like to watch the FB's get it in almost real time.

Ok that's all for now, I'm off to put down almost 200K in Vegas, I was going to do the SFH investment in $anta barbara but I would most surely lose all my money, thought might as well get free drinks while I am doing so.

I am not offend-able. I appreciate everyone expressing themselves in whatever manner they see fit. Even if they do sound like an ass.

Knowing almost everything I need to know about everything. I look for insight into which direction we are heading. This affects my decision making. Should I stay or should I go. Will things get better here, or should I move to New Zealand or Australia for a better life. The scraps of truth are derived, not stated. So it is with great care, I sift through the reams of rhetoric to find a modicum of truth. I have an uncanny ability to separate fact from fiction, right from wrong, good from evil. For this I am proud. Not the money or the net worth, but the knowledge of the true value of the asset, tangible or intangible, these are answers that I seek. And you have provided me with that knowledge. For that I am grateful.

No one can accurately predict the future, But some of us can come pretty darn close, even on timing.

OT-One thing I have noticed recently; The Immobilization of a once mobile society; due to falling home prices. Do some people feel like they are prisoners in their own castle? What is causing this, and what does this mean for those who are stuck? I kind of know the answer, but I would like to here how others would express it.

I am a bit pessimistic about the future of this forum, mainly because of the technical & logistical reasons DS and HARM point out. The problem is that Patrick.net has become a destination. A "brand" if you will, and like craigslist.org, we have about 0% chance of succeeding in any attempt to move this discussion elsewhere. We need the patrick.net domain or this blog will not survive as a destination.

I am not a fan of self-administered blog software, even open-source. This isn't because the software doesn't work, but because it's vanilla unless actively modified and maintained by volunteers. Only Patrick has this access to WordPress on this server. Even if he opened access to others, who wants to spend their time modifying PERL or Python code for a blog? Especially when as little as $200 per year buys a high-volume, professional blog site on Typepad; less for Blogger. You'll notice that pretty much every other blog linked/referred to from here is Blogger or Typepad. These other blog platforms offer the functionality DS points out as necessary to maintain any control over the communication forum.

I totally agree on static links and the creation of a mandatory-reading FAQ. We could then prominently link that and when someone new pops in and asks the same old question we just point to the link on the left.

As to the digressions and off-topic conversations, I don't mind this at all and didn't mean to diminish their importance. The problem is that this blog is basically purely serial communication. We hardly ever have even two active threads, let alone 4 or 5. Again, other blogs with better management tools have many active threads going at once. My own has 7 active threads right now. Because of the serial nature of this blog, once a thread goes off topic or down a rat hole it's usually lost. This is what probably drove Barry away: he'd be wasting his time since his discussion would get hijacked after about 25 posts, which would represent about 1 hour.

I still have an issue with trolls and gratuitous offensiveness. I agree with X that all trolls should be deleted on sight, and I'd go further and say all responses to the trolls should go to. They just should disappear so as to not encourage more trolls. Name calling is my own moderation peeve. I usually allow most name calling even in my threads unless it becomes over the line offensive or personal. Sadly, both of these types of flames have become much more common in the past few weeks. I come down hard on my view towards such behavior because I believe it drives away new readers who've just found this forum, leaving us with an ever self-selected group of shouters. When we were small, this didn't matter so much. But I think we've crossed that threshold where it's starting to matter a lot more.

HARM, I'd be very interested in collating these ideas and sending to Patrick. I will admit that I've been authoring less here and I am increasingly less interested in doing so.