patrick.net

Bap, these are expectations. This analysis is valid if you are willing to draw expectations from the data, as Patrick originally did. This is done in the same manner as how the National Weather Service advertises the odds of getting struck by lightning to be 1E-6 in a given year--they do so by dividing the number of strikes per year by the total population. Does that mean those are the odds that YOU will get struck by lightning? Doubtful--I don't know how you spend your time. If you play golf on mountaintops during thunderstorms, the likelihood will be far greater than if you live inside a subterranean Faraday cage. But for large samples of a large population, that expectation can be applied with reasonably good agreement.

People DO do the same math with the NBA, NFL, and MLB; those statistics ARE part of the equation in sports management decisions (too much so for Brad Pitt, in Moneyball). Future expectations are based on prior performance, but just like with roulette, quantum mechanics, and women, there are no certainties.

Marcus, I agree with your math, but it doesn't seem to disagree with mine. Given you are white, the data suggests that the probability of being murdered by someone who is black is 2E-6 or 2/1,000,000, not 2E-5.

And this data is gathered over a year, so these are expectations that this will occur within a given year. Specifically, the data is from 2010.

1) The black population is 12% of the total population.
2) Blacks commiting murderer are >12% of the total murders.
3) Blacks murdered by blacks are >12% of the total murdered blacks.
4) Whites murdered by blacks are >12% of total murdered whites.

I'm sure the actual numbers can be used in place of "greater than 12%", but I think you see my point.

What is the data on Irish murderers? It is a known fact that Americans with Irish ancestry are 10,000 times more likely to murder a bottle of whiskey than Americans without.

You young kids and your statistics. If you don't correct for the "Irish problem" in your study its worthless.

The answer to this problem is simple - just pack heat, permit or not, and be willing to use it if you are victimized - regardless of media hype and race-baiters. In the end - if is my life or some attackers - I'd rather be judged by 12 than carried by 6....

Sir Moneyworth, you're back! How was your vacation in rural China shooting peasants from a helicopter?

It's called the Paddy Wagon for a reason. :)

Nearly 100% of the Oxy addicts in Appalachia are white. Can I extrapolate a race predilection from this?

CL says

Nearly 100% of the Oxy addicts in Appalachia are white. Can I extrapolate a race predilection from this?

Oxycontin is called "hillbilly heroin" for a reason. ;)

So a rational white person should be about 100 times more afraid of being killed by a car than being killed by a black person.

A rational person should be more afraid of our highways than any other non-health-related danger in the U.S.

I walk to work, and exercise due caution when crossing the street.

msilenus says

A rational person should be more afraid of our highways than any other non-health-related danger in the U.S.

That's because our highways are crawling with ethnic minorities!!!! :)

CL says

That's because our highways are crawling with ethnic minorities!!!! :)

And don't forget black tornados. They've been proven by meteorologists to be far more dangerous than white tornados:

Not dangerous:

Dangerous:

CL says

CaptainShuddup says

There was a black kid back in November, that blew two kids away in a white Honda Civic, while he was hijacking them. He said he shot them, because they didn't look scared enough. Too bad Zimmer Man couldn't have been there to thwart him.

It's a Bird! It's a Plane! It's Zimmer Man! Able to leap negative press in a single bound, faster than a running wild rumor, able to stop a loco Motive.

That has no bearing. A senseless murder could have been committed by anyone, regardless of ethnicity, especially if the victims were not "scared enough".

Difference is Zimmerman is a vigilante. A murderous, racist, extra-legal, gun-toting freak who kills innocent children.

He'd probably have shot the two kids, but pretend they wounded him as they struggled to get away.

No, it wasnt asenseless murder it was a racist murder , the problem is that most people ( most cinic and want-to-be politically corect) dont say it but that was a racist crime . If it was the other way around (the white killing 2 blacks)all press would be saying it was a racist crime

Think about it. If a white person is murdered by say a black person in a bad situation, we don't hear about people all across the country protesting for those murdered if they were white. Why is that?

MrMaddog says

Think about it. If a white person is murdered by say a black person in a bad situation, we don't hear about people all across the country protesting for those murdered if they were white. Why is that?

If a white person was murdered by a black person, and everyone knew who that murderer was, and that person wasn't even charged ?

a) I don't believe that's ever happened

b) If it did, people would make assumptions that are different than the assumptions here. Here (with Martin/Zimmerman) the assumptions are that either its massive incompetence, or systemic racism. Whereas if what you said (reversed situation) happened without the known shooter being charged, we would just assume extreme incompetence.

getting back to Patrick. I think you have to include the specific City's ethnic makeup first. So pick a city, look at the ethnic numbers, then start pulling the murder data.
As someone who used to live "in" chicago for 50 years,we might change those population numbers. i dont live there now, and I would give you the opportunity to guess why. but I'll save you the time...
"half of the town is bad news"... IMO...

Unbelievably, Patrick wrote:

"Most murders are within the same race, but even then blacks have a much higher rate of murdering each other than whites do."

My comment:

This sentence can be translated to:

"Most murders are within the same income level, but even then poor people have a much higher rate of murdering each other than rich people do."

Please don't spew this racist nonsense.

it is racist to say blacks = low income, aint it? Or, did you mean that blacks make up >12% of the low income population, in the EXACT same way they make up >12% of the drop out population, teen mom population, unwed births population, and murderer population? If that is what you meant, then that was not racist. But, if you just equated black with low income, that is racist. I think.

Bap33 says

if you just equated black with low income, that is racist. I think.

He (or she) was noting that it's low income blacks and more generally low income demographics in general where crime including murder happen much more. So making a generalization about murder among blacks actually implies something that is not true.

That is (just for you Bap), one might falsely infer that even among middle class (and above), African Americans are more likely to commit murder or be murdered. The latter could be true(being murdered), but if so probably because of communities that include lower income and gangs etc.

Bap33 says

it is racist to say blacks = low income

Also just to help you with your logic a bit more, if hc thought that black = low income, then he (or she) wouldn't have suggested that using one term in this context was racist, and that using the other was not.

HC's point was actually closer to: black does not = low income.

I think Chris Rock had it right: most of the people on welfare are "broke-ass white people." "Broke-ass, living in a trailer-home, eating mayonaise sandwiches, f***ing their sister, and listening to John Cougar Mellencamp records."

Hilarious.

Bap33 says

it is racist to say blacks = low income, aint it? Or, did you mean that blacks make up >12% of the low income population, in the EXACT same way they make up >12% of the drop out population, teen mom population, unwed births population, and murderer population? If that is what you meant, then that was not racist. But, if you just equated black with low income, that is racist. I think.

It is not racist to say black people are poorer than white people. Not in the least. It is a fact. And when you do the research, to find out why this is, it's because black Americans were and still are the most oppressed members of our society. An oppressed people = a poor people, regardless of skin color. And poverty leads to ignorance, which then leads to violence. I'm baffled by how many (not all) white folks don't get this basic fact. Who are the real ignorant one's in the end?

There's no question blacks were the most oppressed in America, historically.

Are they still actively oppressed? Or is a lot of the poverty just "inertia"?

I really don't know, I'm just an average "white guy."

Here's another way to look at it:

Fact: Red cars are more likely to get pulled over by cops

Fact: A red colored car will cost you more money in speeding tickets

Therefore, we can all agree that the color red is costlier than the color blue?

If you paint your house red, will you be more likely to get pulled over by a cop? And same thing if you wear red pajamas? Red is bad, red is bad!

wthrfrk80 says

There's no question blacks were the most oppressed in America, historically.

Are they still actively oppressed? Or is a lot of the poverty just "inertia"?

I really don't know, I'm just an average "white guy."

Funny question: "Are they still actively oppressed?" You mean it's okay to oppress them passively? Like the way a white HR hiring clerk might disregard applications from black people behind closed doors? They are most certainly still oppressed, though not as much as before.

housingcasino4865 says

Like the way a white HR hiring clerk might disregard applications from black people behind closed doors?

If they do that, shame on them.

But do they, in fact, do this? Is there evidence for it? Anything is possible, but the courts don't argue cases based on "mere possibility."

wthrfrk80 says

housingcasino4865 says

Like the way a white HR hiring clerk might disregard applications from black people behind closed doors?

If they do that, shame on them.

But do they, in fact, do this? Is there evidence for it? Anything is possible, but the courts don't argue cases based on "mere possibility."

Of course they do. I don't like saying this, but have you ever socialized with people in and outside of your local community or work? See this:

http://career-advice.monster.com/in-the-office/workplace-issues/do-black-names-matter/article.aspx

"In the movie Coach Carter, a pregnant teenage African American girl is asked what she plans to name her baby. "Loquisha," she says. Her friend replies, "Well, she might as well have the name 'Food Stamps.'"

The point is clear: Loquisha is a "black" name, and names affect destiny. That premise gained scientific backing with "Are Emily and Greg More Employable than Lakisha and Jamal? A Field Experiment on Labor Market Discrimination," an MIT-University of Chicago study conducted in 2001 and 2002 and published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in 2003. Researchers sent 5,000 fictitious resumes for sales, clerical and customer service positions in Chicago and Boston. Applicants with white-sounding names were 50 percent more likely to be called for initial interviews than those with African American-sounding ones. The racial gap was uniform across occupation, industry and employer size."

And keep in mind, the study was done in Boston and Chicago. Both are liberal. Now just imagine what it must be like in Conservative cities.

housingcasino4865 says

That premise gained scientific backing with "Are Emily and Greg More Employable than Lakisha and Jamal? A Field Experiment on Labor Market Discrimination," an MIT-University of Chicago study conducted in 2001 and 2002 and published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in 2003. Researchers sent 5,000 fictitious resumes for sales, clerical and customer service positions in Chicago and Boston. Applicants with white-sounding names were 50 percent more likely to be called for initial interviews than those with African American-sounding ones. The racial gap was uniform across occupation, industry and employer size."

Wow that sucks. I thought that kind of thing was relegated to the past.

I'm in engineering where there are just as many Indians and Asians as "white" people. It's true that there aren't many "blacks" where I work, though. There weren't too many black folks majoring in Engineering either, at least where I went to school (Erie, PA). Sad.

housingcasino4865 says

Here's another way to look at it:
Fact: Red cars are more likely to get pulled over by cops
Fact: A red colored car will cost you more money in speeding tickets
Therefore, we can all agree that the color red is costlier than the color blue?
If you paint your house red, will you be more likely to get pulled over by a cop? And same thing if you wear red pajamas? Red is bad, red is bad!

Maybe that's the problem.

Red = Danger (that's why stop signs are red and red means stop)

Black = Evil (the Black Plague, Black Magic, The Dark Side, Darth Vader's costume is black, etc)

wthrfrk80 says

Wow that sucks. I thought that kind of thing was relegated to the past.

I'm in engineering where there are just as many Indians and Asians as "white" people. It's true that there aren't many "blacks" where I work, though. There weren't too many black folks majoring in Engineering either, at least where I went to school (Erie, PA). Sad.

Blacks aren't into science or engineering because they're too busy being gangsta's thanks to social programming (aka, the media). Why be an engineer? That's not "coo," be a gang banger instead. If you need food or shelter, that's what section 8 and food stamps are for. Funny, it's the liberals who are oppressing blacks the most nowadays. Hollywood and the general media, which are both liberal do nothing but dish out gangsta videos/music and movies, and stupid reality shows with one pregnant black girl and five possible fathers. And the liberal politicians encourage dependency and are more genocidal than the KKK ever was: look up "family planning."

wthrfrk80 says

Red = Danger (that's why stop signs are red and red means stop)

Black = Evil (the Black Plague, Black Magic, The Dark Side, Darth Vader's costume is black, etc)

Color connotations/associations can also be positive:

Red: energy, excitement, passion, eroticism, desire, lover, courage, joy, vigor, willpower, etc.

Black: elegance, authority, formality, modernity, sophistication, wealth, style, etc.

housingcasino4865 says

Blacks aren't into science or engineering because they're too busy being gangsta's thanks to social programming (aka, the media). Why be an engineer? That's not "coo," be a gang banger instead.

It's happening to white kids too. Example: Eminem and Insane Clown Posse.

leoj707 says

Color connotations/associations can also be positive:

True.

So what explains the bias against blacks then?

wthrfrk80 says

So what explains the bias against blacks then?

The simple explanation would be tribalism, but I don't think that it is that simple. There have probably been many volumes of information trying to accurately answer that question.

housingcasino4865 says

And the liberal politicians encourage dependency and are more genocidal than the KKK ever was: look up "family planning."

Look up, "How unwanted pregnancies hold you down and ruin your dreams".

Also, look up how the biggest proponents of family planning were once Republicans, including the Bush family's support of Planned Parenthood.

wthrfrk80 says

There's no question blacks were the most oppressed in America, historically.

Are they still actively oppressed? Or is a lot of the poverty just "inertia"?

I really don't know, I'm just an average "white guy."

The minds of the people have not caught up with the times. Many still believe in the methods of the 60s revolution, when in fact, all they need to do is seek opportunities. During the 60s the people turned their backs on white America as had been done to them for 400 years. what you describe is a defensive mechanism....unfortunately, all youth are now following this same approach. IE Hip Hop Thug Nation Being white or black has nothing to do with it...its all about the impoverished thoughts that come with being poor and not knowing opportunity is right around the corner.

wthrfrk80 says

housingcasino4865 says

Blacks aren't into science or engineering because they're too busy being gangsta's thanks to social programming (aka, the media). Why be an engineer? That's not "coo," be a gang banger instead.

It's happening to white kids too. Example: Eminem and Insane Clown Posse.

You are both right, color is not a factor here though. Social and economic status are the culprit....along with piss poor parenting. I wouldnt want my daughter associating with EMINEM, KID ROCK, WILLIE NELSON, TED NUGENT or SNOOP DOGG. They are all miscrients, unfit for a society based on decency.

housingcasino4865 says

Hollywood and the general media, which are both liberal do nothing but dish out gangsta videos/music and movies, and stupid reality shows with one pregnant black girl and five possible fathers. And the liberal politicians encourage dependency and are more genocidal than the KKK ever was: look up "family planning."

Your right to an extent, as this not only affects blacks but now affects everyone whom have adopted ANY culture of stupidity that I listed below.

My list of miscrients I dont want my daughter around:

1. Biker Gang
2. Street Gang
3. Rock N Roll
4. Hip Hop
5. Welfare
6. Trailer Park
7. Ghetto
8. Tattoo Fiends
9. Racists
10. Drug Abusers
11. Thugs of all kinds (KKK, Black Panthers, Prison Inmates)

Yes, Hollywood and Liberal policies enable stupidity by first projecting an image and then supporting the rights of those same miscrients who impede upon the rights of other citizens. We need stronger incentives for those who assume the lifestyle of any of the above cultures I mentioned to take responsibility for their lives. These cultures generally are not concerned with maintaining dignity but moreso their personal freedoms to roam the earth and impart their form of stupidity on everyone else.

CL says

housingcasino4865 says

And the liberal politicians encourage dependency and are more genocidal than the KKK ever was: look up "family planning."

Look up, "How unwanted pregnancies hold you down and ruin your dreams".

Also, look up how the biggest proponents of family planning were once Republicans, including the Bush family's support of Planned Parenthood.

I would also reccomend everyone look up EUGENICS and GENOCIDE on youtube. Planned parenthood was once used as a plot to rid society of Africans and native persons all over the world. Now, it rids society of unwanted babies that have a higher chance of growing up to be a miscrient due to the lack of love in their life. Neither is right.

The KKK lynched 500,000 conscious blacks during the early 1900s shredding any dignity that was left, not sure if abortion had the same effect on the mentality of my people....tit truly goes deeper than can be discussed on a computer.

@Clarence: According to contemporary scholarly research, your statistics are incorrect, sir.

It has been established that blacks have killed more blacks than the KKK ever did.
Q: How many individuals did the KKK lynch since the end of the Civil War?
A: from 1884 to 1900. The number of persons lynched in the United States during that period was 2,516. Of these about 66% were blacks, and (interestingly) 33% were whites [see R. Baker, American Magazine, "Following the Color Line," (1908)].
Tuskegee Institute, [now Tuskegee University], is recognized as the official expert credited with accurately documenting lynchings from 1882 through 1968. During that period they report that there were 3,446 lynchings of blacks and 1,297 lynchings of whites.
Before 1882, there were about 2,100 lynchings by KKK members. Assuming all those killed were blacks, we arrive at a maximum number: less than 5,600 blacks were killed by the KKK since its founding.
Indeed, "Lynching Century" states: "From 1865 to 1965 more than 6,000 blacks died in racial violence in the United States." [That is, 6,000 blacks killed by all sources, not by KKK members]. Intra-racial [not inter-racial], being the most prevalent homicide causality.
Thank you for the discussion. Julianna

Post Script: Two of my great great uncles miraculously survived Andersonville Prison Camp.