patrick.net

2. The banks are fraudulently holding all the inventory back.

This is real.

We all agree that houses were overbuilt from 2003 to 2006.

Someone has to hold these empty houses. If banks don't have, who does?

If you have been to Phoenix, you will understand why I have no faith on Phoenix real estate. Tons of very good houses were built 20 to 30 miles from the center of Phoenix. Yet there are empty lots around Phoenix downtown. People don't care about locations.

TechGromit and xenogear3,

Where would those folks stay after eviction?
If they rent, increase competition for rental.
If they buy, increase competition for houses.
Stay with their parent, duh. Touche.

Careful about talk of shadow inventory. As if out of nowhere, supply of house would increase and those evicted folks would disappear and don't need a home. As if because of economic conditions, no new households are formed. Shadow inventory is not as scary as what permabears claimed because evicted folks need homes, new households need homes, new H1B green-card holders need homes and new EB-5 immigrants need homes.

Bitter? Hardly...you don't know the first thing about me. But I do know I don't have to troll patrick.net day in and out, brag about my properties and money, call the site useless, and call everyone here a loser and me a "little one" (that's the best you can do?) in order to make me feel good about myself. Your daily boast fests and pissing contests about the real estate market speak volumes about how INsecure you really are. I'm surprised you find so much time to grace us with your presence...aren't there just two many dollar bills to count?

Where would those folks stay after eviction?
Stay with their parent, duh. Touche.

Or grandparents. Or find a roommate. Or their old worthless farm houses in the middle of nowhere while they sell their city houses.

After people lost their jobs, they will find the cheapest way to live. The rent will drop.

I can argue #2. Banks sold mortgages to resell mortgages into rubics to investors. They made a butt load!

robertoaribas says

tannen:

any time you develop the thinking power to debate ideas on here, feel free to respond to me.

However, if you insist on posting insults to me: well, the readers can judge you for your words just fine.

You insult Tannen and then complain about being insulted. Dear, me.

hanera says

TechGromit and xenogear3,

Where would those folks stay after eviction?
If they rent, increase competition for rental.
If they buy, increase competition for houses.
Stay with their parent, duh. Touche.

Is that your argument to buy? Lame.

I've not seen ONE dentist ever arrested, arraigned, tried or convicted of dental fraud.)

BUT THEY SHOULD BE!!!!

Real successful and rich people don't post on message boards. Even they do, they don't post how much money they made.

A reasonable guess is that they are failed realtors. "Look how much money I made in real estate. Everyone should invest."

Unfortunately, that chance is low. Posting random messages like that will not convince anyone. Even a failed realtor understands that.

They are more likely kids live in a basement, and trolling.

How about thievery, they try to steal your teeth and charge you the price of Kia for it!!!!

Eventually you won't have any teeth left and have to survive on MASHED POTATOES and BLENDERED UP FLESHMEAT SHAKES.

Can I get a picture of you smiling please, lips open.

xenogear3 says

They are more likely kids live in a basement, and trolling.

Yup, my thoughts exactly. That is the price we have to pay since they put a browser on the game consoles.

They are probably calculating their wealth with the same advance math skills that makes them buy a house today. Similar to GroupOn trying to say the full price of the coupon is their revenue. So, they are worth 1.5 million based on the Zillow estimates, but the reality is they have 800K of houses with 1.2 million of mortgages. They don't know this until they are forced to sell to pay back the parents. Then depression sets in, and thoughts of going back to school, and the whole cycle starts again, just this time they are much older.

I don't think there is any conspiracy or mystery going on here- not on this forum. Its simply the same ole' crap that's been going on and on in bubble forums for years:

1: People who have their financial futures tied to real estate, and in many cases probably bet the farm on it entirely and therefore have a vested interest in seeing it do well. In that case naturally they are going to have either a conscious or subconscious desire to promote its success.

2: Those who have not bought a house yet and therefor have an equally compelling reason to see housing prices and its success fail and do so in perhaps spectacular fashion. Its obviously advantageous to broadcast doom and gloom.

In the end its all about psychology. Real estate is ALL about psychology, from the happy, swinging pending and sold signs, to the reports of massive foreclosures in the headlines. From the investors who trust physical assets more than non-physical assets, like gold and houses versus stocks and bonds, to renters and future home buyers who try to get their houses in good school districts.

Neither side in the end really gets exactly what they want. Bubbles always pop, prices never fall forever, and the economy never goes up or down forever. Homes don't necessarily make good investments and stocks can fluctuate all over the place.

Lastly- I don't think you could pay me to live in Phoenix.

This site has no purpose anymore other than ranting.

Roberto- I would like to respond to your comment on the unemployement numbers. Even though they might 'do a phone survey' of who is looking for work and who is out of work, the fact that unemployment is now 99 weeks vs used to be 6 months will have a major impact on that survey.

For example: If I am lucky enought to laid off I'm not even going to start looking for work until week 98 rolls around. Probably a large part of the unemployed are the same but if you called me in a survey I would lie and say 'im looking for work' in reeality im looking for an awsome job which would have to be better than collecting 1800 a month to watch Oprah and eat bon bons. Sooooo unemployment #'s are now distorted to the high side by how much I dont know.

robertoaribas says

apologize for calling me a liar.

I'm sorry if you are a liar. ;) There are programs that can help.

Roberto -- it's pointless, no one takes those trolls seriously anyway. You and I both know what we're seeing here in Phoenix -- and you and I have both done our research ; ) That's all it comes down to. Let the trolls trollolol until the end of time.

PockyClipsNow says

If I am lucky enought to laid off I'm not even going to start looking for work until week 98 rolls around.

Well, most people aren't as lucky as you who can find a job in 1 week. And most can't live off of unemployment alone so they would be eating into their savings every month they "eat bon bons and watch Oprah".

So that post is completely ridiculous.

NO my post is not ridiculous. Even if you wait 1 year to actually look for work (they give you 2 years of checks) then that is a huge skewed number.
Especially since as you say most people are broke, that means the lower your pay the more of your 'missing pay' the UE checks cover its capped at what 1800 a month? so if thats your salary before you are laid off and you get basically very close to it to sit ass on couch - who the hell would find a job asap?

The liberals like to imagine every single person on unemployment is honets and starving and spending all day looking for work - the truths is probably only half of them do. but impossible to quantify.

Philistine says

An accurate number would be difficult to gauge, but to answer your rhetorical question: it's their own damn fault if they don't do the leg work to be informed.

Yeah, so that's my point. How does that work out for all of us? I think you've described the way many think about many situations. It just doesn't seem helpful in getting us toward a more peaceful world. That's what I want. If that's not what you want, then I get it. Bring on the cannibal anarchy.

I'm a pretty smart person, if I choose to just go find people dumber than me and trick them into giving me money, that seems to be okay with most people. I don't get that. Although, while that might be a working strategy for getting money, I doubt how well it works in contributing toward peace of mind.