patrick.net

From the article:

Plenty could go wrong. The biggest threat is a large shadow inventory of unsold homes, homes which owners won't put on the market because they are underwater, homes that will be foreclosed eventually and homes owned by lenders. They have been trickling onto the market, slowed in part by government efforts to delay foreclosures

Lie Rabbit, you made this alias just to post this crap?

I don't believe 1 word of this article. I just can't believe the wall street journal published it!

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303644004577520414196790098.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsTop

I think the article is highly optimistic, but it's not a bull article in the sense that the conclusions are based on some debatable hinging points, and the conclusion itself isn't exactly saying "rising prices for the long term!"

The author fully admits that the "turn" he/she is describing is the fact that housing prices have "seemingly" stabilized in most areas, and that historically low rates, and constrained supply are the major factors that have buoyed the market in the past few months.

At the end, the author gives full disclosure that "plenty" can go wrong, or in other words, there is still a major downside to housing; "large shadow inventory of unsold homes, homes which owners won't put on the market because they are underwater, homes that will be foreclosed eventually and homes owned by lenders. They have been trickling onto the market, slowed in part by government efforts to delay foreclosures..."

Many of those points above are popular discussion points people bring up on Patrick.net every day to describe why a 2nd crash is still forthcoming.

I guess you're right. I just hate the title!

Its all predicated on mortgage rates remaining at 4% or less 'forever'.

It seems that is likely.... I mean everything is fake and manipulated now right? Free market dead forever?

Yeah, if rates remain that low forever, they may need to start teaching MBAs about a different economy than the one we grew up with.

This article is seriously slanted horseshit. The first line says:

"The housing market has turned—at last."

The writer states this as fact. This cannot be stated as fact. It is pure speculation.

The last line says:

"But the housing bust is over."

The writer states this as fact. Again, this is pure speculation, the kind that has been consistently wrong for the last six years. The writer begins with and ends with the conclusions he wants you to walk away with.

The writer knowingly uses the title for the same effect. It is what will be remembered and regurgitated. The warnings at the end of the article are similar to warning labels on prescription drugs that go largely ignored.

What passes for reporting is really disappointing.

Biff

Zillow sez my neighborhood the turd in the diamond store.
Is red orange against the Neighborhoods a little west and the neighborhood a little East which are Yellow. Those neighborhoods were not destroyed by investor idiot class buying them and ripping out the old growth vegetation, and ripping off the tile roofs replacing them with crappy asphalt shingles, and they are about 20 to 40% bigger on average, and were all built 20 to 30 years later than my neighborhood.

But funny thing. I keep seeing 700K and 1.5 Mil investment commercial properties nestled in the "Single Family" results.

Of course that's going to make those average sells of 79K, look like the average listing price of 279K.

Still I look at it and pretend I don't know what's happening. I dance a victory jig and look in the mirror and ask who's the man? Who's the Man?

But then the mail comes and I get my insurance premium increase notice, and have to say... Those Mother $&@#!'ers

Nationally, the housing bubble is *mostly* over. At least according to Case-Shiller data:

http://www.multpl.com/case-shiller-home-price-index-inflation-adjusted/

Looks like there will be another small leg down to get back to post WWII levels.

Yeah if they refi with the underwater REFI and can then rent the place at a profit or break even or even close to that. Then that underwater house will foreseeably NEVER be on the market.

So the 'underwaterness' of the houses could be an indicator of prices set to rise due to restricted inventory.

Of course this is opposite world, they changed all the rules. Used to be impossible for banks to mark to myth, used to be no underwater refi without paying down the balance.

Notice how these things are slowly slowly crept up, to get max cash out of the people. 2 years ago you couldnt do an underwater refi unless you met strict rules, now everyone can. All those people who paid down the principal to refi into a low rate of 5% 2 years got screwed! Rates are now 3% and no need to pay down underwater part.

Its an awsome racket if you can make money at it.

We've hit bottom. It's a perfect time to buy. LMAO

I have never been a bull or a bear, just an observer of statistics. I get a chuckle out of both extremes, the get in while you can prices will always go up crowd and the real estate will crash to 80% lower prices crowd. The truth typically is somewhere in the middle. All real estate is local, sometimes block per block as far as valuations go. Having said that, I am making a bet that we have in fact hit bottom in most areas. I suspect that the 80% lower prices are in store crowd will be moaning even more loudly as they get priced out once again in the not too distant future. Having said that, like I said local, the bust in Vancouver for example is just beginning.....

Goran_K says

Yeah, if rates remain that low forever, they may need to start teaching MBAs about a different economy than the one we grew up with.

This is why equities market is doing so poorly. Everyone understands that rates will rise in the next several years. No one wants to hold on to worthless paper knowing they may end up losing nearly half of their investment.