patrick.net

I think the dead cat has bounced again.

I think the foundation beneath this new market is prone to liquefaction.

I think most properties in coastal areas remain grossly overpriced

I suspect the data is cherry picked

I think the rich Chinese all-cash investors will be severely disappointed as the rich Japanese all cash investors did in the 80's

I think if enough people believe as I do the market will continue to correct itself as it should

But then again what do I know, I'm a perma-bear

It's bottomed ... until:

- The shadow inventory hits the market.

- Delinquent mortgages become new shadow inventory.

- Mortgage subsidies disappear (I'm betting President Romney will remove the mortgage-interest deduction so he can balance the budget)

- FHA redefines who they'll allow qualify

- Interest rates go from 4% to 7%

So YES, barring NONE of the above happens, now is a great time to buy a house!

I'm sure Gen. Y'ers like me will now be racing out to buy $285,000 houses with our $23,000 a year jobs :-/ Better hurry before we drive prices up!

I think the market will turn when:

Lenders are allowed to issue loans to vagrants... As long as the loan amount is less than $729k More than that is just plain crazy

Seller disclosures are censored by realtors (R)

SqFt is replaced by sqin

Rental properties are bulldozed and replaced by owner occupied only

The 0.1% are forced to buy buy buy or be taxed out of existence

Renters are officially recognized as sub-human and must submit by law their hot wives and daughters to the lusts of their over-landlords

Landlords are allowed to hunt renters

All property taxes and maintenance costs are paid for solely and directly by renters with the deduction assumed by the landlord (this is how works now but in such an obvious manner)

Renters assume all liabilities, including lost equity while landlords reap all benefits

That said, my parents just paid off their mortgage. Took 'em 20 years. But the best kind of house ... is a free house!

Call it Crazy says

Correction... it's NEVER FREE, just ask them what happens if they don't pay their real estate taxes....

Remind me again, what happens again.. probably in less than 30 days.. if you don't pay your rent?

rfsanders says

The shadow inventory hits the market.

- Delinquent mortgages become new shadow inventory.

- Mortgage subsidies disappear (I'm betting President Romney will remove the mortgage-interest deduction so he can balance the budget)

- FHA redefines who they'll allow qualify

- Interest rates go from 4% to 7%

So YES, barring NONE of the above happens, now is a great time to buy a house!

I'm sure Gen. Y'ers like me will now be racing out to buy $285,000 houses with our $23,000 a year jobs :-/ Better hurry before we drive prices up!

Do you believe in the Boogie man also? He's waiting in your closet.. so better not go to sleep!

Everything you listed will not happen anytime soon and by the time it does... It won't really matter because it will have happened so painfully slow that it will be like boiling a frog. No one will notice... but we still will all be cooked.

A) Shadow inventory can be manipulated FOREVER!
B)Romney won't get elected.. And mortgage deductions will get phased out slowly.. not cut. You are insane if you think it will end outright. It's existed a full century.. it will take decades of cuts to unwind from it. The government doesn't quit things cold turkey.
C)FHA redefines that all the time... and it'll be a slow process.
D) Interest rates will reach 7% when the economy is ROARING again or pigs fly.

The old adage is "3-times your salary."

I make $23k with my degree. I can afford a $75,000 house (I qualify for double that, but I can't AFFORD double that). I don't see any $75k houses for sale, even in Utah.

In California, I might be able to make $50k, but I don't see any $150,000 houses for sale in Orange County.

Until my generation gets a DRAMATIC boost in pay, I just don't see the market "roaring back" to life anytime soon.

Maybe move this thread to the RE forum?

The housing market isn't going to forever stay in a slump, sorry to say. Is it possible that the bottom has been reached? Maybe. Let's see where it lies in 3-4 months. If the overall market is sustained then perhaps then you could call a bottom.

Lol, what do you think about this article? Just keep on turning that corner.

http://economywatch.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/07/12/12700715-rising-foreclosure-risk-clouds-housing-outlook?lite

so if I fail to pay real-estate taxes for a year, the government takes the house even if it is paid off and I did 50K worth of new repairs. If my car is paid off and I cannot afford gas due to hard times then the car simply stays in the driveway until things turn around... I keep my collateral... the joy of home ownership I guess

We don't own anything. Our overlords own us.

Is it over?

It is for me.

I've got my kitchen did, the walls painted nice-a-nice, plants and fruit trees in the yard, my Man Cave is complete, all of my outdoor cooking accoutrements are in order, I'm having a Ball.

Liar Hunter says

And deep underwater and sinking.

About as much as any renter renting half the place for what I pay.

You guys assume every home owner is a victim, and all houses have to appreciate 50% the first 2 years or all is lost. Or it's a lost.

The "BUST" was over for the people who took the $8,000 tax credit bait. It was over for all the people who bought after the bubble burst and it will be over for all the anxious buyers over the next few years. As for people who will want to enjoy normal equity appreciation, They will wait till shadow inventory is meager and our trustworthy gubmint releases the interest rate dogs.

ATK says

so if I fail to pay real-estate taxes for a year, the government takes the house even if it is paid off and I did 50K worth of new repairs.

It's okay, a lot of people don't understand you're just paying the government for the right to use their land. They can raise your rent (taxes) as they wish, and if you don't pay you need to leave so they can rent the land to someone else.

The government owns the land. You don't.

StoutFiles says

The government owns the land. You don't.

Absolutely. We are all serfs, save for the top 0.1% who own our government and thus everything (and everyone) else.

wthrfrk80 says

StoutFiles says

The government owns the land. You don't.

Aboslutely. We are all serfs, save for the top 0.1% who own our government and thus everything (and everyone) else.

Thr rich are serfs as well - to their money.

The horror, the horror