patrick.net

yes, wiki also says there are a few places they seed the clouds... they can get a 30% increase in rainfall... not sure what conditions are required for success, e.g. % relative humidity, temp, etc...

people lived in perfect communal harmony with each other and nature. There was perpetual happiness and gumdrops grew on trees and the children laughed and played in rivers of chocolate.

is this another critique of the boomers and flower power?

On a summer day in the month of May a burly bum came hiking
Down a shady lane through the sugar cane, he was looking for his liking.
As he roamed along he sang a song of the land of milk and honey
Where a bum can stay for many a day, and he won't need any money

Oh the buzzin' of the bees in the cigarette trees near the soda water fountain,
At the lemonade springs where the bluebird sings on the Big Rock Candy Mountains

There's a lake of gin we can both jump in, and the handouts grow on bushes
In the new-mown hay we can sleep all day, and the bars all have free lunches
Where the mail train stops and there ain't no cops, and the folks are tender-hearted
Where you never change your socks and you never throw rocks,
And your hair is never parted

Oh the buzzin' of the bees in the cigarette trees near the soda water fountain,
At the lemonade springs where the bluebird sings on the Big Rock Candy Mountains

Oh, a farmer and his son, they were on the run, to the hay field they were bounding
Said the bum to the son, "Why don't you come to the big rock candy mountains?"
So the very next day they hiked away, the mileposts they were counting
But they never arrived at the lemonade tide, on the Big Rock Candy Mountains

Oh the buzzin' of the bees in the cigarette trees near the soda water fountain,
At the lemonade springs where the bluebird sings on the Big Rock Candy Mountains

One evening as the sun went down and the jungle fires were burning,
Down the track came a hobo hiking, and he said "Boys, I'm not turning."
"I'm heading for a land that's far away beside the crystal fountains;"
"So come with me, we'll go and see the Big Rock Candy Mountains."

In the Big Rock Candy Mountains, there's a land that's fair and bright,
The handouts grow on bushes and you sleep out every night
Where the boxcars all are empty and the sun shines every day
On the birds and the bees and the cigarete trees,
The lemonade springs where the bluebird sings
In the Big Rock Candy Mountains

In the Big Rock Candy Mountains, all the cops have wooden legs
And the bulldogs all have rubber teeth and the hens lay soft-boiled eggs
The farmer's trees are full of fruit and the barns are full of hay
Oh I'm bound to go where there ain't no snow
Where the rain don't fall, the wind don't blow
In the Big Rock Candy Mountains

In the Big Rock Candy Mountains, you never change your socks
And little streams of alcohol come a-trickling down the rocks
The brakemen have to tip their hats and the railroad bulls are blind
There's a lake of stew and of whiskey too
And you can paddle all around 'em in a big canoe
In the Big Rock Candy Mountains

In the Big Rock Candy Mountains the jails are made of tin,
And you can walk right out again as soon as you are in
There ain't no short-handled shovels, no axes, saws or picks,
I'm a-goin' to stay where you sleep all day
Where they hung the jerk that invented work
In the Big Rock Candy Mountains

I'll see you all this comin' fall in the Big Rock Candy Mountains!

Interesting (and revealing) side-note: If you try to Google the lyrics to Pete Seeger's version "Big Rock Candy Mountain", you quickly find that every commercial music site has been ordered to remove these lyrics at Mr. Seegers request. I had to pull them from here.

Apparently the irony of enforcing intellectual property law on a song about a hobo's anti-materialist utopia was lost on Mr. Seeger.

Mike,

I know that I don’t actually take delivery of the pork or oil, but actually sell it at a future date to someone who does. What is someone taking delivery of when they sell a housing futures contract, and where did the initial asset come from to buy or sell?

There is not necessarily any exchange of goods in the futures trade of pork or oil. In fact, usually not. Not by you nor by anyone else. The trades are settled either in cash or with offsetting trades.

From Options, Futures and Other Derivatives, John C. Hull, 5th ed. (the bible on derivatives, if you want to learn how they work):

Closing Out Positions

The vast majority of futures contracts do not lead to delivery. The reason is that most traders choose to close out their positions prior to the delivery period specified in the contract. Closing out a position means entering into the opposite type of trade from the original one. For example the New York investor who bought a July corn futures contract on March 5 can close out the position by selling (i.e. shorting) one July corn futures contract on April 20. The Kansas investor who sold (i.e. shorted) a July contract on March 5 can close out the position by buying one July contract on April 20. In each case, the investor's total gain or loss is determined by the change in the futures price between March 5 and April 20.

...so a market of futures based upon a method-driven housing index as the underlying is not necessarily unsound. The question is in the index methodology. But such a market is no more "mysterious" or "vodoo" than an option on an equity index, or any of the various options or futures on ETFs.

There are futures on SPDRs.

There are futures on SPDRs.

So we have...

S&P 500 index funds
SPY
SPY options
SPX options
SP futures
SP futures options
ES futures
ES futures options
SPDR futures

How many ways do we need to "play" the S&P 500 index?

HARM,
Hilarious! Typical communist--Seeger would rather be sure that *no one* can have access to a good or service than let someone make money off of it.

Hilarious! Typical communist–Seeger would rather be sure that *no one* can have access to a good or service than let someone make money off of it.

Yes, in order to make everyone equally happy, they make everyone equally miserable.

Funny development, and one bound to stir joy in the hearts of JBR's every where!

We had a slight summer storm here in the Portland, OR area, nothing major (like in the mid-west) and after a few "dropped calls" from clients cell phones I'd thought the worst was over?

Turns out this brief and minor storm accumulated enough rain to strip away and buckle our rented gutter! Damn! The whole thing is dangling down about two feet! I'm no expert but with the shingles and tar paper it ripped off I'd say you're looking at about $500 minimum! And these soon to be "repartments" are not even two years old. Uh, it only rains about 10 months out of the year here, you'd think they'd have this whole gutter thing down by now? Damn!

Is this what you guys mean when you say "shitbox"?

Man am I ever glad the "owner" declined our generous offer of 180K! This was just on the garage where you could repair it with a six foot ladder. Think how much fun (and expense) it will be to re-gutter the entire second floor! What a mess, what shitbox. Thank you Lord.

For the guys here, I don't know about you but Mrs. DinOR wouldn't care what it took she would want that fixed before she got home! At the very least before the engagement dinner here this coming Saturday.

"But hon, it's a very "special" gutter, they have to ship it in from Muncie, IN"!

Yeah......... right. Just fix it Mister.

I'm now planning to do a photo scrapbook documenting the demise of a shitbox. God this is funny, TWO years old!

I’m now planning to do a photo scrapbook documenting the demise of a shitbox. God this is funny, TWO years old!

Who built that stuff?

Peter P,

Unlike CA many homes and condos in OR are built by small independent operators and most are actually quite good. I met the "builder" one time and he was fishing for compliments and I really didn't have any for him. Genuine or otherwise. For a 1,450 sq. ft. condo to have only ONE phone jack in an "up scale" unit made it difficult to "home office". Actually there are several phone jacks in the bedrooms but only ONE in the main room.

The other night I was on our back deck and I noticed the unit on the opposite end's deck was starting to shall we say......... settle? I don't exactly have an eye for art but you could see that the handrail was lower toward the river than to the house. (It didn't used to be that way).

I’m now planning to do a photo scrapbook documenting the demise of a shitbox. God this is funny, TWO years old!

Oh, please do! Can't wait --we'll have to make a thread out of it.

Your advice about not buying anything built during the bubble was spot-on. Just look at all the Lennar lawsuits going on in FL due to shoddy construction. Ben's blog has an article about it at least once a week.

For a 1,450 sq. ft. condo to have only ONE phone jack in an “up scale” unit made it difficult to “home office”. Actually there are several phone jacks in the bedrooms but only ONE in the main room.

We use wireless everthing now, with cordless phone and wi-fi, so the lack of phone jacks does not bother us too much.

HARM,

Will do! Daughter #2 has a digital camera so this will be a snap. I understand that any deck should slope away from the house "slightly" after all this is Oregon. But the deck is so obviously lop-sided it isn't funny.

But the deck is so obviously lop-sided it isn’t funny.

I remember going to an open house in Palo Alto recently... I nearly lost my balance walking around the house.

Peter P,

That is what we ultimately learned. We now have a wireless modem and can fax, surf and talk at the same time. It took some doing and a little trial and error but we finally got it dialed in. In order to install add'l jacks that would have been an expense. Since there is no crawl space they have to go into the attic. Not fun. Wouldn't it have been better to just put a few in before the drywall went up?

Peter P,

I'm told, in time ALL homes settle. No big there. But these were built right on a creek. If this is the result after two years what will they look like in 20?

Enjoy savory gourmet pizzas, caeser salads, fresh strawberries, ice cream and flavored lemonades.

No caviar? :(

tannenbaum,

Who are they going to get to skydive? FB's with nothing left to lose?

Who are they going to get to skydive? FB’s with nothing left to lose?

Hopefully the divers will experience a softer landing than the FBs.

Rainmaking- I read that the Chinese routinely seed clouds to get rain and to break up hailstorms.

Or one can intensify storms like they did in State of Fear. :)

"Hopefully the divers will experience a softer landing than the FB's"

LOL! Damn!

They're resorting to "car lot" tactics to sell homes! And why not? It's all about the monthly payment isn't it?

If any of you get the chance rent (don't buy) the movie "Slasher".

No it is not a "slasher movie". It's done by John Landis (The Blues Brothers) about the ULTIMATE used car salesman and was shot over a couple of days in Memphis. The guy is a stone alcoholic and car lots from around the country call him in to clear inventory. It's a side of America most Americans don't get to see. Funny stuff.

We have a new metaphor to add to the blog collective:

FB as a parachute-less skydiver.

SFWoman,

My old boss said he would run into Bill Gates and his wife going out to the movies like any other couple up in Redmond. Now? Forget it. I did feel bad for a lot of the people that worked hard to build relationships w/Vulcan Enterprises though. A lot of hard work and rejection just to get their foot in the door and after numerous failed investments (including the "Trailgangsters") Paul threw a lot of good people "under the bus".

Paul? What do ALL of these people have in common? Yeah, that's right, Paul, you! You!

I had clients that worked for the now defunct Oregon Sports Arena and felt their futures were secure b/c they had their wagon hitched to a billionaires star. One of the wives was soooo snooty everytime I would call. How's that working out for ya'?

newsfreak,

NOTHING has been right in MA this year. Much weird weather.

FB as a parachute-less skydiver who thought they have soft-landed at 30000 ft.

Robert posted this on Ben's blog last week, but I'd say it's worth repeating here:

'The Bigger The Boom, The Bigger The Crash’
Comment by Robert Cote
2006-07-07 13:42:33

"Ladies and Gentlemen, this is your captain speaking. As of this time we are plummeting earthward in a death spiral that is sure to lead to our demise. But the good news, the people in the building we are about to crash into will die before us. Thank you for flying Real Estate Airlines for so long. We know you have a choice of investments and we brokers… err… crewmembers know you have a choice of investment vehicles. We also appreciate you willingness to pay more than fulll price for tickets and for your faith in us for so long after everyone predicted we would run out of gas, just as we are doing now. Again, thanks for flying and enjoy your coming swift departure."

How do you even price a $100 million home?

See if you can rent it out for $800,000+/month.

Astrid,

I don't know what I would do if I do make 10 bil. Here are a few random thoughts.

Vaguely speaking, helping excellent causes, especially in traditional research --the star-alignment and ancient history sorts, as Peter P would put it. I'd love to support a few starving (but naturally talented) phycists (as physics was my passion before coming to US of A) and mathematicians. I like archeaology. So I'd support a few expeditions. There are a lot of potential digs in western China, where the ancient dynasties were seated.

I don't care much about directly helping the poor. THere's never enough money to help the poor in this world. One cannot easily justify helping one group of poor people and neglect the vast majority. To me, it's a lost cause. In addition, I don't believe in indiscriminate kindness and generosity. Money should be used to elevate the best people in this world. By elevating the best, we indirectly help the lesser.

I would set up a venture capital fund. The financing terms will not be as predatory as the other funds. But I will call the shots.

I would also use the money to cultivate political influences. I will be too old to enter the political life. But I wish to send some of my children to the military and diplomatic services. Elective politics in a democracy is to be avoided. Should one of children choose an artistic or research career, that'll be fine with me. But the boy must at least give the military service a try. My children will be discouraged to pursue a business career, unless he is naturally talented in and strongly predispositioned towards it.

I will also set up my fiefdom and take care of those who live under me, for loyalty goes in both directions.

SFWoman,

You know it's hard for me to say b/c I don't work downtown any more and most of my clients that WERE season ticket holders have absolutely bailed. Here's what I do know, Paul Allen defaulted on hundreds of millions of bonds, fired his financial advisor (hired his sister) and left Oregon Arena Sports in ruin. The Trail Blazers are on the auction block and a couple of the former players and Jeld Wen are talking about partnering up in time for the fall season. The reason I'm so vague on much of this is b/c no one seems to care. After you've been in Oregon for awhile nothing much upsets you any more.

GC, are you my altered ego? :)

I don’t care much about directly helping the poor. THere’s never enough money to help the poor in this world. One cannot easily justify helping one group of poor people and neglect the vast majority.

Cannot be more true. This is why helping research and education is so much better than feeding starving children. Sorry for being insensitive, I am a utilitarian.

Peter, c'est tres possible.

I don’t care much about directly helping the poor. THere’s never enough money to help the poor in this world. One cannot easily justify helping one group of poor people and neglect the vast majority. To me, it’s a lost cause.

Not true. Gates has been successful in vaccinating millions to curtail preventable diseases. There are a variety of infectious diseases which can be curtailed at very low cost. This is a good use of philanthropic dollars, IMO. He also provides scholarships to deserving low income students, so it is not an "either or" propostion.

In addition, I don’t believe in indiscriminate kindness and generosity. Money should be used to elevate the best people in this world. By elevating the best, we indirectly help the lesser.

And at what point does is this supposed to trickle down to the poor? How about at the point when a multibillionaire software mogul decides to help them.

Gates has been successful in vaccinating millions to curtail preventable diseases. There are a variety of infectious diseases which can be curtailed at very low cost.

True. Vaccination gives a lot of bang for the buck. It should be high on the priority list.

And at what point does is this supposed to trickle down to the poor?

Sometimes it is better just to make a snap judgement and do the right thing. Philanthropy needs not be scientific. :)

The helping the 3rd world poor thing is a pretty small concern in this country. People I meet seem much more interested in "rescuing" animals than feeding 3rd world children. Other OECD countries might have different priorities.

Gateses' philanthropy efforts are quite cost effective. The cost of preventing an epidemic is much lower than the cost of living through one. Developed nations benefit too, because of closer disease monitoring and reduced need for military intervention. However, the innoculation efforts are better if combined with teachings of population control and sustainable agriculture.

However, the innoculation efforts are better if combined with teachings of population control and sustainable agriculture.

Absolutely. Quite paradoxically, the priority for developing countries should be:

1. Education
2. Food
3. Disease

Reversing the order will make the world more unsustainable.