patrick.net

maybe this is contributing to the low inventory?

For all the talk about shadow inventory, the US is building far below replacement rate.

Is it possible the lack of new houses will/has counterbalanced the shadow inventory.

Housing should never be "booming." If it is, an inevitable "bust" will follow.

Housing should keep pace with inflation. Unless they discover gold or oil in Your City.

Booms are speculative in nature, we aren't going to see much more than occasional bull traps driven by few speculators.

I believe we just went through one of these, and it's already losing steam.

Call it Crazy says

Now, Housing Completions... this is a better indicator...

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Hmmmm....... is there light at the end of the tunnel????

NO

I think we are in a bear market bounce that will end soon because the USA is entering a recession.

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc121001.htm

2010 was so not a buyer's market. I was hoping it would be, but it was so not.

The thing is, when has a realtor or a bank ever said that now is not a good time to buy? Sure, they'll say previous years were a bad time to buy, but the present is always a good time to buy.

In IT, companies say, "last year's product was bad, but this year's product is awesome; you should upgrade". I'm familiar with that trick.

War says

repo4sale says

Buy low = 2010-2014

Why buy when prices are falling?

Did u even read his charts?

This argument all comes down to what your view of the future is:

Scenario 1: The economy is dragging bottom, but like 1981, will gradually bounce back over the next few years and be fairly strong for another 6-8 years after that.

Scenario 2: The economy would normally bounce back, except that ALL of western civilization is super-overleveraged and ready to completely implode. An oncoming MEGA-SUPER-depression is coming, as the world deleverages its credit.

If you believe in #1, the time to buy is quickly approaching.

If you believe in #2, save you cash another 5-15 years and buy entire blocks like Mr. Potter.