patrick.net

Sean,
I have a gut feeling that if rents start going up, and housing prices stay up into the stratospere, people are just going to say fuck it and leave. I know I'm pretty much teetering on the edge of simply packing up and moving right now. Every time I feel down about things here, all I do is pull up Austin Craigslist and look at a few beauties like this one http://austin.craigslist.org/rfs/182683471.html
and realize that a few days spent dumping most of my shit at the good will, filling the tank with gas, closing my bank account here, and saying adios to all my friends who are also moving out of here anyway would solve about 90% of my problems and make california and all it's messed up issues a thing of the past.
Will rental increases become the next big thing? Nope- the people getting the hell out of here will, which for those of you who are wanting to spend another 5 gut-wrenching years waiting for prices to become affordable enough for you to barely squeak into will be a good thing since they're be less of us anyhow.

I would be honored to have an "anti-parade" named after me!

The weeks preceeding the "non-event" would be filled with blank ads in the paper and "dead air" on AM Radio. Streets that would normally be barricaded off would be open and parking would be as abundant and normal as any week day! The "anti-parade" culminates in taking the local city park by storm where we have "a" booth set up advocating people save their money, put an end to redundancy and stay the hell home! We'll GIVE you 5 bucks to skidaddle back home and sleep in until at least 10:00am.

I'm tired of people and "organizations" and businesses "commandeering" the weekend for their own profit! (Which is what this is all about in the end). It's all done under the "guise" of fun and family and community togetherness but it's about money. Gee, let's use the public park and make ourselves some money!

We had this thing in one of our parks. I think it was "earth day" in the park or somethingoranother. Anyhow, there were all these activists there with their little flags. There was even a baby apparel company selling T shirts for kids with anti-bush, anti-war slogans on them. way to go! use your kids to advertise your thoughts because simply saying it to people is too difficult. why not chicken out and get your innocent clueless kids to make the statement for you. How convenient.
I quit going to most of those stupid things in town. The only one that's worth anything in our area is the "peanut butter jam", where skippy peanut butter- which started in Alameda- gives out free peanut butter.

Michael Anderson,

So good to hear things are "progressing" in Bend! I agree, come the other side of Labor Day many of these specuvestor homes will HAVE to go into the rental inventory. And you know what? At this point I'll TAKE the 10% price reductions "to get noticed" b/c that may well set off a chain reaction as psychology changes from "how much can we pocket" to how do get out of this thing? There are soooo many Mr. Smarmy's here in the Portland area touting their property in Bend it will be a real pleasure to see these ass clowns fall squarely on their own sword!

SHTF,

Amen. The local "Our Town" publication comes out in April or May and is slap full of "events" that run from the first possible weekend where it "might not rain" up through October! They're just designed for people that want to get out of the house for a few hours but don't have a clue as to what to do with their weekend so these events conveniently fill that void. O.K so I am something of a "kill joy" but at some point we just have to SAY NO to these "festivals". What's ironic is that many of the attendees would likely disapprove of REAL events like Mardi Gras where they get good and hammered but it's over in a week! And when it's over life goes on as before. Like I say I'm tired of other people "sculpting" and commandeering my weekend. I want MY weekend back!

Dinor,
I miss going to "real" events too. Back home, me and my dad used to go to all kinds of amazingly stupid but entertaining events. We used to go to the local dirt track and watch demolition derbies. One time they had a riding lawn mower demolition derby. That was fun as hell. They also had lots of music festivals. You could go watch bluegrass musicians just about every weekend, and most of these were free.

Well I don't want anyone to get me wrong here. I'm all about tradition and I don't have any particular disdain for an event just b/c it's local. We have gone to the Molalla Buckeroo for over 20 years and at the local diner they have pictures of past Buckeroo Queens going all the way back to the 1890's. No problem there.

I guess where I start to have issues is with the "encroachment". Wow, if Molalla enjoys that much success with their event (and we're at least as good as they are) why can't we have "Homer Davenport Days" or whatever! Cruise past (don't stop) at some of these events and you'll find this "tradition" is in the SECOND annual year! Well why didn't we kill it the first year? The Mount Angel "Ocktoberfest" is a REAL event! They've done it for at least a hundred years and it can draw up to half a million people. It's the largest "O" Fest west of the Mississippi! Great for them. I don't mind the traffic and the hassle accomodating those kinds of numbers. But having streets closed off for a turn out of 200 people? Come on! Yes I realize at some point the "O" Fest was in it's first or second year but at the time there was NOTHING ELSE!

I don't understand why people are investing that kind of money in SV. It takes literally 50% more funds to do the same job you could do in any other up and coming urban areas. Screw SV. The I-80 triangle has the potential to beat the crap out of SV by doing the same thing for far less. Lots of phuny muny out there...

i don't know how the boom will bust here, cos there's no respite from the prices like in the US -- all the big cities are overpriced, but there's nowhere else to go.... :cry:

Hey Sean,
Ya, I feel ya. I have some friends in the UK, and unless you can work in London, Birmingham, or Belfast, there isn't really anywhere else to go there. In Australia, I bet the same is true. Either it's Sydney, Queensland, or melbourne and that's it.
I guess we in the US should be happy that if things get really crappy, you can always move to... say Dallas or something.

silitroll Says:

http://www.siliconvalley.com/mld/siliconvalley/15064736.htm

Interesting article. I wonder if all this extra VC money is attributable directly to what's going on macroeconomically. Stocks have been in a funk, so money is probably leaving that asset class as we speak. Then there's the news about how surprisingly large the tax collection was by the US Gov., likely due to the ultra-rich and corporations doing much better than previously thought. Now they need to find somewhere to put their money, and part of that diversified portfolio (with less emphasis on the stock market) will include startup investment. Can't wait to see the next Pets.com or webvan come on board!

As an industry insider I can tell you that what's likely going on is that all that dot-com stuff that was supposed to make anyone with a site rich has in some ways finally caught up. There are many sites- even sites that aren't particularly good ones- that are starting to make millions. Consumer buying via online retail sites has gone up 50% this year alone. A lot of people are keeping quite over that because otherwise, everyone would jump in and mess it up... again...

Michael Anderson,

"It's a 4 hour drive"

Yup, sure is! Even coming from the Salem area (where we live it's every bit of 3 1/2 and that's if your pushing your luck with Johnny Law. I always call people out on that stuff. People used to say what made Portland great was that it's "an hour to the coast and an hour to the mountain". Really?

As for people from Portland having a "feel" for what's going on in Bend? NFW! Anyone contending that "they spend lots of time out there" is full of it too. People that spend 2 weeks during the summer and a few weekends a year to ski or snowmobile should not be misrepresent themselves as an "expert" in any way shape or from!

This to me in many ways was a "self fulfilling prophecy". People from Oregon see 2 lic. plates in a row from CA and it somehow constitutes an "influx". A wave! I'm not saying that there aren't plenty of equity locusts in Bend b/c there are. The truth is though that much of the frenzy we have had to witness really is homegrown.

- be
- from
+ form

Michael Anderson,

Those TWO extra months you and your family stayed at your former landlord's rental may make all the difference in the world for those people's lives! Instead of walking away with "big fat stacks" they are now on the defensive and in damage control mode! Depending on how smart they are (and I get the sense that they're REAL smart) they'll ride this thing down to the bottom. Next thing we'll see is a "FB's March on Washington" to demand they be allowed to write off ALL of their negative equity in ONE year!

Just a "quick" stock market analogy if you will:

Even conservatively managed portfolios took 30% hits (and more) so:

A million dollar portfolio becomes 700K (taxable account). Well using the 3K per year this might be carried forward for about a hundred years. Our pleas fell on deaf ears. Watch, when the FB's march (and they will) we'll see special treatment for writing off cap. losses! What's good for the goose....... Don't let FB's and specuvestors pull this off! Don't.

DinOR,

Bend sounds like the Lake Tahoe of the Portland area.

Vacation homes have been exploding in the last 5 years. I'll have fun watching those markets shrink and properties go back to what they're actually worth (maybe 20% of their current prices). I don't know why anyone honestly think they need a vacation home for a place they'd only use 4 weeks a year (and two of those because they own it and now compell to use it).

SHTF,

I don't know any town that really goes downhill because it's too expensive. The prices just have to retrench 5 to 10 years and everybody will be happy again.

Be way of buying immediately in TX and TN, they may be in for quite a bit of shrinkage once this RE joyride is over. Right now, your rental costs in Alameda are quite low, so enjoy the good stuff here and forget the other 10% (snobby BA elitists again?).

SHTF,

I don't know any town that really goes downhill because it's too expensive. The prices just have to retrench 5 to 10 years and everybody will be happy again.

Be way of buying immediately in TX and TN, they may be in for quite a bit of shrinkage once this RE joyride is over. Right now, your rental costs in Alameda are quite low, so enjoy the good stuff here and forget the other 10% (snobby BA elitists again?).

astrid,

Had a few posts that wouldn't take so I wasn't ignoring you by any means! I think any area that is flush with "second homes" (which btw Ben Jones is quick to point out were just an excuse to speculate) is vulnerable to MAJOR price corrections. I guess a 2 X 4 costs what a 2 X 4 costs so we should see a meaningful price reduction in what HARM describes as the "land bubble". The pricing is getting really sloppy out there. Just today I saw two posts on C/L in Pacific City, OR for buildable lots. One was a single lot that while claiming to have an ocean view was a joke for 160K and then there was a double lot with a direct view of Haystack Rock for exactly HALF that. So like I say, prices in resort areas are all over the board and other than specuvestors willingness to pay for them out of their Home ATM there isn't any driving factors supporting their prices.

Michael Anderson,

That is just amazing. It's not just the amount of inventory out there, it's the time of year and the seeming random nature with which they come on the market that should be concerning bulls. Why are there so many homes for sale? Why are there so many homes for sale in the same neighborhood. Why are there so many homes for sale in the same neighborhood all being listed within weeks or even days of each other? Hmm?

Astrid,
I don't think cities in TX and TN are going to shrink. If you look at the reports, RE, business, and everything else is going up in those regions. The ONLY reason they are doing so is that they were severely depressed for decades. The prices are still extremely affordable, and the rate of appreciation is more in line with actual wages. I looked just a few days ago at a position similiar to mine in Nashville. The pay was actually higher than the wage I get here in SF.
With the savings I have now, I could very easily buy a 2 bedroom home in either TX or TN with some left over. Anyway you cut it, I would be living cheaper, earning more per capita dollars in relation to cost of living, and keeping more take home pay simply because therte wouldn't be any mortgage, rent, or other expenses save property tax and normal everyday goods. As you can see, the opportunities for younger middle income wage earners is pretty sweet in these areas, and I can only expect them to grow at a healthy rate in terms of real substainable business for years to come. I'm only too glad that many here in Cali do not realize this yet.

Hey King,
This whole site is one giant non-ending rant about the same thing: housing, housing, housing, california, the bay area, housing, and more housing. Guess what? There AREN'T ANY tear-jerker housing bubble blogs in TX. There might be a few for the immediate central Austin city, but I'll be damned if you'll find anything even remotely close to the number of sites dedicated to the stupidity that has become the BA. Do you wonder why there aren't any blogs like this in other places? because those other places are doing just fine, and so are the people that live there.

There are HUNDREDS of BA housing blogs out there, all about the same thing, all with people like myself who find it comforting in some ways to vent from time to time.That's the only reason I come here because like everyone else here, this issue affects our daily lives.
As far as jobs paying more elsewhere, well yes- this is entirely feasible. Why? Because wages in the middle income sector in the BA haven't budged in years now while the rest of the country caught right up. So yes in fact, I saw a few jobs that paid as much or in some cases more for the same job I have now... in other states. If your only reason for going off on me is because you think I might be mistaken, then do the search yourself and tell me I'm wrong. The truth that many people here do not want to admit is that the BA is now really only for the loaded folks making 6 figure salaries.That sounds nasty to us folks who recount a time when things were very diffrent. If you make the kind of salary I do, I can gurantee that your outlook would be severely diffrent. As someone from a diffrent part of the country, california economics and social structure strike me as very strange and foreign, which is why I come here to see if this is really for real and not some odd circumstance.

I don't make the kind of money to simply sit back and wait for things to get more conveneient. For me this is a life changing issue, and one that I would rather NOT have to make. But If I have to leave, I'd rather share my thoughts with anomynous people who might be thinking the same exact thing and be able to share what they are experiencing. This stuff is kind of scary. I for am at least hoping that the middle class isn't a thing of the past.
Sorry if my mentions of these places bothers you. I'm really thinking aloud, and this site helps me vent my frusturations.

SFWoman,

Now that you mention it I think there are vampires out on the coast! Yes Medford is a mess. We just went through and it's surprising how much of that stuff is being built within earshot of I-5! (Like why would I move all the way up to OR to live just off a freeway?) Also a good observation on Portlander's inferiority/superiority complex! I've never heard it put better.

Michael Anderson,

Speaking of which Bend could have it's own "over priced" blog. If they don't, they should. I keep wondering the same thing, is there some metric at play here that I just lack the capacity for understanding? Please keep us posted as Bend will prove to be the canary for many other overvalued "resort" areas. God I'm lovin' it!

DinOR,

Heee! I get a real kick out of reading idiots who shouldn't even go on vacation (why do families making 75K a year think they deserve 4 weeks of full out vacation?) buying vacation properties. They seem to share their math skills with the idiots buying up condotels. I really don't understand why anyone would pay a premium for a house in a vacation spot. The whole point of owning a vacation home is that it's so cheap and you'd go there so often that it'll overcome the cost of maintenance for the rest of the year (like coastal New England fifteen years ago). Historically, vacation homes were money pits because they were expensive to insure, require a lot of weather protection, and you're paying 12 months of mortgage for a couple weeks of time there.

Nowadays, vacation properties seems to be btwn trophy property (that's fine if you're a billionaire and the house is 1/500th of your networth) and fantasy unicorn land. Nobody seems to even remember that the pristine vacation environment is created because it's in the middle of nowhere and there's really nothing to do. Also, once you own the house then the house owns you. You can't vacation elsewhere and you're locked into the same house and the same vacation year after year. Once again, maybe that's fine for a cheap fishing cabin you go with buddies on weekends, but not if the vacation home costs as much as the primary residence.

astrid,
I think I brought this issue up a while ago, but I find it funny how nowadays the solidly middle class feel they "deserve" or should have many of the luxuries that a generation ago only the wealthy could own, the "bling-ing" of America. Now every joe sixpack homedebtor feels they should have a vacation home, toys like atv's, boats, RV's, fancy vacations, horseback riding lessons for the girls, luxury cars, etc. When we were growing up, this stuff was only for the wealthy, and many wealthy folks it turns out live cheaply anyway.

SHTF,

Texas and TN both have extremely high foreclosure rates. TX has also seen an influx of West Coast money that's spurring new construction, which is uninhibited by NIMBYism and zoning problems. I don't think they'll see the sort of declines we're beginning to see in FL, AZ, NV, and Central Valley. But I definitely think declines are possible.

If moving there makes you happy and saves you money, so for it. But I'd suggest renting for a little while (ought to be easy with so many CA flippers around) and checking out the scene before buying anything. Just because those places look cheap in California does not mean the locals think they're good values.

Astrid,
The plan is to " wait and see". Like many of you here, I am hoping for the best possible scenario: an implosion of the bubble at which point I would consider staying. As for the comments above about the " deserving middle class", I see this every single day; the young guy in the Audi, or the construction worker in a 50k truck. Even my dad recently told me that there is a rather large increase in people in Nashville driving luxo-european cars, all thanks to leasing options.
There has never been a society in the history of the modern world that has has any long-standing sucess without a healthy middle class. Research shows that up to 75% of the population will be urban within 20 years. If that's so and ALL cities eventually become little san francisco's, then that doesn't bode very well. The middle class is a guage for the sucess of this country, and they ain't doing so hot these days.

Yeah, I think I mentioned it on here a few days ago...the amazing waste that seems to be almost standard over here in the USA. It came a quite a shock to me when I first came over here

Not saying that the UK doesn't have its Bling-Lovers, but on the whole everything is smaller and more cost/effective/environmentally friendly. Then again, gas in the UK has been over $5 a gallon for over a decade now, so people have learned to live without SUVs...

LILLL,
That's very well put. You remind us that what's missing in this whole RE mania picture is any shred of common sense.

Lefantome Says:...

Well put mate :-)

I guess years of people being panicked into buying is going to take a little bit of time to correct.

Being a native born california it was hard to leaving my family and entire support base. I got divorced in 2000, shortly after this madness with prices started. I had about 50k in savings by 2002 that wouldn't be a down payment on a dumpster. I hadn't had a raise in six years meanwhile everything shot up my health insurance , gas, food, and rent. I hoped for a bubble burst and crash but it didn't start in earnest until after I got here in SC.

Will I stay in the south? Probably not but I can't return to california unless I am rich which I'll never be. I never thought I'd have to make this choice in my adult life. Single and one income can't survive there anymore it's been a sobering life lession that has changed my outlook on life forever. I lost alot first with a divorce then the economy and housing changing and not in my favor. It sucks I'm stil sitting on the money but it probably won't help presently. I'm feeling very defeated even with CNN droning in the background seems the world is falling apart. Conflict and economic uncertainty possible ressession? Maybe it's not my fate to ever have a home. Makes me wonder...

Yes it's affordable but I have only a year on my employment contract and no guarentees after that. My place here is a 1350 sq ft 3 yr new condo that is only $695 amonth. In So Cal it would easily be $2200 which I'd never pay I only made about 40k which is poverty in so cal. You are correct I have to start and readjust my thinking. I guess you can say I can't get use to the cultural differences here. I don't like it enough here after seven months to invest in a home. I have moved four times in the last six years locally until Jan 06 when I moved across the country.
I hope eventually things stablelize enough for me to make a commitment somewhere. I guess the things you miss most like calling up a friend and stopping by for a beer aren't available to me anymore. I don't know a soul here.

Sylvie,

Hopefully you'll meet some people in SC. Whether you decide to stay or go, you'll have some friends in the meantime. Please keep us posted.

Now here's a nice t-shirt!

Sylvie,

You don't have to stay in US. You know, in other parts of the world, women really like down-to-earth American men. And the men like American women, to a lesser degree. (They detest American government. But that's a different story.) I am not native. But I've had my fair share of travel to see the attitude around the world.

allah Says:

Now here’s a nice t-shirt!

LoL!
The T-shirt bids at a cent but the Postage and Packing costs $18.95!

And its from San Diego!

What's the matter, noone wants the flipper course?

SFW,

That, is a complete sentence to today's Amerika. Only the premise (or audience), as indicated by IF, matters. Feel-good marketing.

Someone mentioned NYC earlier in this thread. Sigh. It's the only place I consider a real city in US of A. My only regret: I don't really have a feel for the financial industry.

Someone complained about the quality of women in Portland. Last time when I was there, the quality of OK. I was there once for a sailing course on the Columbia River. I took the evening off and attended the wine-tasting festival near the university. Very nice environ. Met a pretty girl. But, she's too lefty for me.

But hands down, the Northeast is endowed with feminine beauty. The wholesome kind. NYC is endowned with the equisite kind (as Stockholm). I actually don't have very high regard for women in BA when I was there in summer '94. LA might be very different.

I forgot to mention Boston. Near BU. Yes.