patrick.net

SHTF Re: Truckers

Yeah, I've always found truckers to be polite and courteous. In exchange I've always tried to be polite back.

I go up to Mammoth on the I395 one or twice a year, and am amazed at people who tailgate trucks on the single-lane sections. If you're driving a big-rig you have no view of the back...
But, Mammoth attracts a lot of Angelinos (me included) and I'm sure that they put something in the water in LA that makes everyone drive like morons.

Just leave the vicinty of LA County and all of a sudden, people have signals on thier cars, and use the slow lane on 2-lane highways unless overtaking. Amazing.

I think the problem for me is watching the bubble burst is akin to watching paint dry - I need something to keep me occupied...

The accident rates on autobahns ( with no speed limit ) is lower than the US highways. That tells something.

That proves nothing. We need strict enforcement of the speed limit law.

Jon,

Much as I don't like to see misfortune fall upon people who don't deserve it, Peter P is right. There is simply no way governement can eliminate all economic and social unfairness in the world by legislation, and most attempts to do so in the past to do so have resulted in moral hazards (unintended consequences) far worse than the "unfariness" they were trying to cure in the first place.

The best we can do is to create a tax and regulatory structure that is as neutral towards asset class as possible (i.e., not rewarding/subsidizing RE investors over stock or bond investors), that does not attempt to "fix" the price of capital, labor or commodities (either directly by decree or indirectly via subsidies) and, and does not create more useless, self-perpetuating bureaucracies that generally do more harm than good (the Fed, GSEs, HUD, Dept. of Agriculture, Energy, etc.).

Some nice people will get hurt because of market imbalances and disruptions, this is unavoidable. The best we can do is NOT to implement policies that WORSEN the normal volatility of the business cycles and exaggerate speculative bubbles beyond what would have happened without active government intervention (as in the Fed dropping rates to 1% and the GSEs "socializing" mortgage risk, while "privatizing" transaction profits, etc.).

I think that’s what you meant, but it almost looked like it was saying that people that don’t earn enough to buy homes at the current bubble houses should move on. Just an observation.

No... the current bubble is causing massive imbalance in the economy, which cannot be good for the economy in the long run.

Prop 13 is causing resources to be misallocated.

my husband has difficulty hiring young lawyers, even lateral associates at $275,000 a year

Per U.S. Census:
2003 median household income (as in two-wage earning families included):
California $48,912

Yeah, I'd say $275K is "tad" above average :-)

There was a recent study comparing accident rates in states that repealed the federal 55 limit vs. those that retained it, and found that the higher limits did not increase fatalities.

On a related note, when Montana had no daytime limit, accidents decreased year over year to national lows, while seat belt usage, road courtesy and proper lane usage increased. Once limits were reimposed, the trends immediately reversed, with interstate fatalities doubling, traffic flow problems and related accidents increasing, and road courtesy decreasing.

So, Peter, I am curious as to why your reverence for speed limits, when both data and engineering principles suggest that at best they provide no increase in safety.

SFwoman,
One question I have for you is what in the hell do the lawyers applying to your husband's firm expect? 275k? if they have a "problem" with the cost of living on 275k, and I assume their wives work too meaning they probably are pulling say- 3-400k a year, then I have a hard time understanding how they cannot afford to live here while most of us make 50-60k. What do they want? A new bimmer AND a mansion in Palo Alto? is it simply out of the question for them that they simply can't drive a camry and live in a decent home in a normal neighborhood? is there seriously that much prestige attached to being a lawyer? I always wonder what I'd do if I made that kind off cash. You better bet I wouldn't be buying expensive cars, homes, food, or any of that stuff. I'd work for 10 years, save a few mil, move to another region, and simply retire.
Sorry if I sound bitter, but if people can't find a way to live off of 275 freaking thousand dollars a year, then perhaps that's why this country has such a massive problem.people don't know the value of money.

SHTF,
I don't want to speak for SF Woman, but for higher-end salaried people here, it's not about trying to "find a way to live off of 275 freaking thousand dollars a year." I'm sure many of these atty's could easily do that. The calculus is that they can compare similar salaries in other cities for the same type of jobs and realize how much more home they can purchase in those cities. The lone exception in the comparison is probably NYC, but that's a whole other ballgame. There are lawyers up the ying yang there, but the high end firms pay HUGE, esp. when you factor in the bonuses. My wife hears from friends a top-tier firm like Wachtel in NYC will give 100% of base salary as a bonus. Then, when you compare other comparable cities, like Chicago, Boston, DC, etc., they are much more affordable, despite their own housing bubble issues.

The effects of Prop 13 seem to be magnified by the bubble. Ignoring whether prop 13 is in itself good or bad (I'm inclined to the bad), I imagine it like a girder in a building that being shoved out of the way by an expanding... bubble. The girder may be inconvenient or annoying, but it only becomes especially noticeable when something in the building has gotten so oversized that it's pressing against it. (A crappy analogy, I know.)

So, Peter, I am curious as to why your reverence for speed limits, when both data and engineering principles suggest that at best they provide no increase in safety.

Because I am fallible. Speed is the issue. But I may have to agree that speed limits may or may not be useful at all.

I'm wondering how feasible it would be to run some voice-stress analysis software on those strident "soft-landing" statements...

danbgood Says:

Geeze you folks must all be from CA
I’m from MA and find your blindness oddly charming
[...]

Someone from Taxachusettes laughing at those from People's Republic of Kalifornia.

NYC -metro- is a lot more affordable than the Bay Area Metro.

I never implied otherwise. Just pointing out that salaries there are even more than here for attys., despite the fact that indeed, cost of living here is worse.

I never implied otherwise. Just pointing out that salaries there are even more than here for attys., despite the fact that indeed, cost of living here is worse.

But I heard that nice condos in NYC are pushing $3000+/sqft while nice condos in SF are usually less than $2000/sqft.

A 15 or 30 yr fixed rate mortgage along with a basically fixed rate prop tax. You can then raise your family and live life without worrying about the market determining your house and prop tax payment.

What about the cost of food and expenditures? There is no such thing as absolute financial security. It is not that bad, this just pushes people to be productive in all stages of life.

That’s Manhattan though. In the other boroughs, it’s not nearly like that - and it doesn’t mean living in the Bronx either (which isn’t that bad anymore).

But even nice condos in SF Financial District or other posh areas are not as expensive.

I heard that most condos in NY do not even have inside laundry, is this true or an urban legend?

SFW,

Is $275 K the base? It's not bad. I want the job. But I don't have a JD. Well, on a second thought, I'll probably decline, as it entails too much work. My current compensation, if you consider the real hourly wage, approaches .. um ... better not say it. It's not infinity.

@Peter P
Having no speed limits and lesser accidents prove a lot of things. Either the people in Germany are mild mannered and well behaved and are very respectable and people in the US are all boors.. I dont think that is the case cuz people are people, be it US, England or Germany or anywhere else in the world. It is the fear of the law that puts people in control and i have heard cops give big tickets to people who stay on the left lanes longer than needed.
Lack of fear of the law is the reason for such recklessness and stupidity in this country.. but hey it is the land of the free..
A kid who was riding a stolen bike in Oakland at 2 am in the nite is a good kid but apparently the cops are at fault for not checking if the driver of the SUV was not drunk though he was interviewed by the cops for an hour. The parents should be punished and punished hard and in front of the public so that public see it and have the fear in them and make sure they dont have to get publicily flogged for their kids actions..

"NYC -metro- is a lot more affordable than the Bay Area Metro."

Indeed, outside of Manhattan, CA prices actually buys a nice upper middle class home, not working class home stock that went for $50K thirty years ago. Plus, good New York suburbs have good public schools and parochial schools, so kids' education is a lot cheaper.

Manhattan is a whole other crazy world, but even there, the truly exorbitant prices seem to be concentrated in a few areas. And at least you don't have to figure car costs into living there.

Peter,

I don't know if it's true in Manhanttan. In the boros, partially true. Some buildings have just a shared laundry room in the basement. Same with old apartment/condo/co-op buildings in Seattle. I suspect it's also true in Manhattan.

If you are rich, you don't do laundry yourself. You have maids come in to pick up and drop off your dirty clothes. It's not that expensive.

So what is the verdict, are we in for a soft landing or not? The San Jose Mercury News was trying to make out there's not a problem today - at least that was the impression I got when I skimmed it today.

Regarding speeding limit.

I drove in Germany and Austria 4 yrs ago. It was my new BMW 3, euro delivery program. Told not to exceed 92 mph, as it was still in break-in period. So tried 90 mph on autobahn. Keine probleme. But every so often, a car would zoom me by. Must be driving at 110+ mph. I took a look. Very old beatup car from 70's or early 80's. A Ford. Another time, a Honda. One time, it was a fucking motocycle zooming by. Again, at least 100 mph.

No accidents. No near accidents. Germans drive very well. Very orderly but fast. I drove well, too. At least, on par.

My sis bought her house in Texas 15 yrs ago. Her prop taxes were $3500. She now pays $7800 per year in prop taxes. She tells me she regrets selling her home in Cali and moving to Texas 15 yrs ago.

Granted this is probably above today's inflation-adjusted value of $3500 in 1991 USD (btw, I would not trust any calculator that uses the grossly-understated CPI), but even so, $650/month plus a 1991 cost-basis FRM payment is not likely to break the bank for most people.

One of the things that has actually helped prevent a similar RE bubble from taking hold in Texas IS the free-floating tax basis, so no, I certainly do not "love" Prop. 13 and it's effects in this or any other market. I would trade the Texas model anyday for CA and its Prop. 13-enforced so-called "fairness".

No accidents. No near accidents. Germans drive very well. Very orderly but fast. I drove well, too. At least, on par.

But an otherwise survivable accident would be fatal at 100mph. A slight impact can cause the vehicle to lose control and flip multiple times. I want lower speed limit because I want more accidents to be survivable.

One of the things that has actually helped prevent a similar RE bubble from taking hold in Texas IS the free-floating tax basis, so no, I certainly do not “love” Prop. 13 and it’s effects in this or any other market. I would trade the Texas model anyday for CA and its Prop. 13-enforced so-called “fairness”.

Fairness cannot be enforced. Similarly, unicorns cannot be captured.

@Claire,
I think it's too early to tell out here. I know what my preference is, and I think we're behind Florida in terms of when the problems start showing up. I also think it's still the calm before the storm, and that the markets won't really notice the problem until autumn.

@Phil,
I should mention that Peter may be correct on speed, as removing limits tends to result in people paying more attention (sense of danger?) while not driving significantly faster. The increased lane discipline also means the people who do want to go fast don't end up weaving, which is an easy way to get into an accident. (A case of "sure, they may be unsafe, but they're less likely to take someone down with them")

Err.. I should revise that to "may be correct on speed itself being a problem", as the studies I mentioned earlier have more to do with the limits than the actual speeds travelled, and also show that average speeds didn't go through the roof.

Didn't mean to assert that Peter P had changed opinions on speed [limits].

heh heh, patrick.net's jumped the shark...

the vast majority of lawyers here only make $50-70K... if commercial lawyers leave Oz to work in UK or US, they never come back.....

An accident at 55 mph is or can be as deadly as one at 70 mph as human body is not meant to take any accident above 5-10mph.

70mph involves 60% more energy than 55mph. So it is at least 60% more deadly.

Have you imagined why rice mobiles have to weave in and out of lanes? cuz slow pokes like you stay on the speed lane at or below the speed limit.

Why do people have to facilitate crimes or infractions (speeding)?

Have you imagined why rice mobiles have to weave in and out of lanes?

it's cos they're little prats, they have fantasies of being race car drivers, they treat driving like it's a video game, and they're so unimportant to anyone that the 5 seconds they've shaved off at everyone else's expense causing near accidents and being rude little gits doesn't really mean anything in anyone's life...

it’s cos they’re little prats, they have fantasies of being race car drivers, they treat driving like it’s a video game, and they’re so unimportant to anyone that the 5 seconds they’ve shaved off at everyone else’s expense causing near accidents and being rude little gits doesn’t really mean anything in anyone’s life…

Something like that. :)

Ever pop the hood on one of those soo called rice mobiles...I am sure they can be made to run faster than German or american piece of shits if needed cuz they are much lighter..
No one is forcing you to drive faster or above the speed limits, some people choose it and i say let them.. you watch out for your own ass and move out of the way and that can be done by staying clear of the fast lane.. it is called a fast lane for a purpose.. does not matter whether it shaves of 5 seconds or 1 hour, its their choice.. an analogy for you - you didnt buy a house but you are renting cuz you wanted to save your ass financially while other people tried the fast lane.. so you got out of the way, just do the same on the road and no one gets hurt..

an analogy for you - you didnt buy a house but you are renting cuz you wanted to save your ass financially while other people tried the fast lane.. so you got out of the way, just do the same on the road and no one gets hurt..

Eh... I thought speeding is illegal. I would like to see an steep increase in speeding fine so that more officers can be hired to catch reckless drivers.

Ever pop the hood on one of those soo called rice mobiles…I am sure they can be made to run faster than German or american piece of shits if needed cuz they are much lighter..

No matter what car you drive the speed limit stays the same. What more speed? Get a Cessna. It can beat ANY car, speeding or not, from San Jose to Santa Barbara.

Yes speeding is illegal, but when you move out of the way, they will get caught faster, but the end result is you saved your ass as well as other people by moving out of the way. I would rather save my ass than trying to teach other people on the road a lesson on driving skills.

Yes speeding is illegal, but when you move out of the way, they will get caught faster, but the end result is you saved your ass as well as other people by moving out of the way. I would rather save my ass than trying to teach other people on the road a lesson on driving skills.

I always stay on the right side whenever possible. But speeding should not be considered acceptable.

Does anyone remember how much the car industry fought airbags, until it was a law? After that, every single car company was like "oh yeah, we pioneered these things, we were the first, oh we're so great, yadda yadda yadda".

On safety... what if we just passed a simple law that said that the bumper and frame of every passenger vehicle on the road had to be at the same height above the surface of the road?

Lots of folks are going to say wah wah wah we can't do that, for a thousand reasons, but you know what, necessity is the mother of invention. The playing field would be level and there would be no, well I bought a compact so i can crush a subcontact, but then i bought a midsize because i can crush a compact, but then i bought a full size because i can crush a midsize, but then i bought an suv because i can crush a full size, and see over it, but then i bought an suv because i can't see through the other suv's with my car, but then i bought a truck because i can crush the suv, but then i bought the hummer because, well, because, uh.... my penis is too small? i dunno.

But if everyone’s doing 75 in a 55, then the speed limits have been set according to politics instead of good engineering principles, and (it may just be me) that’s something I also consider unacceptable.

We need a way to penalize speeding even if everyone is doing it. The CHP will be overworked. This is way we need an electronic system.

Most people overestimate their abilities and so they drive too fast.

I am a big fan of minvans, but my wife refuses to drive one.

I have begged her to get a Honda Oddessy, or a Toyota Sienna, to no avail.

My Jeep is a great car. However, in terms of utility, it's no match for a minivan. Minivans are like twice as spacious. They are a million times easier to get into and out of, especially if you have infants or seniors. All minvans have third row seats, only some SUV's have them.

Minivans have all of the mass and safety benefits of an SUV, and the upright driving position. They're generally easier to drive, too, becaause all of the windows give you excellnet visibility.

Minivans get better fuel economy.

Minivans are superior to SUV's in pretty much every way. But people just won't buy them, they just aren't cool any more.

It's a tragedy.