patrick.net

I understand the desire to highlight bearish news about the market, but old news is not helpful. The problem is not the existence of the shadow inventory which is truly there. The problem is the ability of banks to successfully contain this and drip/trickle houses on to the market as they please.

Bernanke has told banks that they have a bull housing market until 6.5% unemployment (via ZIRP). What's their rush? Basel III rules will not be enforced this year (which may actually allow them to recognize more losses than before and therefore push out more foreclosures into the market, but we're not seeing that happening). Housing is going up until interest rates go up.

Disclaimer: I've found myself on the housing bear camp often. All of the above statements are my conjecture, not backed by concrete data.

Interesting that facts he has gathered, but that video is from six months ago. Yet, nothing has changed. Possibly nothing will change for years and banks will not release foreclosures. They will just make deals with the mortgage holders slowly over the next 10 years to lower their debt Other homes will be bought by private equity firms and keep the whole thing hush-hush. We may never see the crash that Mr. Jurow predicts. I hope we do though.

If the economy stays a float for the next 3-8 years then I think housing has a decent chance of bottoming because the banks and gov't are working together to make it a soft landing.

Unfortunately, we will see a very deep recession (probably bigger than 2008) because this phony economic recovery was fueled by trillions of dollars of money printing. We'll be lucky if we can go 2 more years without seeing another recession. The bond bubble is about the burst and the stock market is way overvalued.