patrick.net

CDon says

What did I do to upset you? I tried to be as dispassionate as I could when I wrote that. Still, given that you dont seem ever willing to set a hard and fast date, is it not, in fact a given that if the fireworks do not come, you will in fact, be waiting for a lifetime?

Like I said, I believe that we are on the verge of a massive economic downturn. After this downturn, I think it would be an ideal to buy. I do believe prices will fall 20-35% during this time. If you want an exact date, it will be wrong of course. This is the reason I am not giving a hard date. It's not because I am "incapable". If you think anyone can give a "hard date" then I think you're the one who is incompetent. My time frame is 2-4 years. We should see a severe recession within this time and the latest GDP numbers is proof

HousingBoom says

CDon says

Do you understand the antecedent of that statement (i.e. printing trillions) is likely to continue so long as the fed exists? Are you willing to spend, potentially your full lifetime, "waiting out" the fed?

IMO, the Fed won't be able to print like this and keep rates down for very long. It will eventually destroy the currency. If rates go up to over 5%, then that itself will crush housing and the economy.

I wish more people realized this.

ElenaMo313 says

I wish more people realized this.

No kidding! Most people think we can print our way out of this problem and everything will be all dandy. lol

We will see massive deflation or massive inflation as the end game. Either way, it won't be pretty.

HousingBoom says

CDon says

What did I do to upset you? I tried to be as dispassionate as I could when I wrote that. Still, given that you dont seem ever willing to set a hard and fast date, is it not, in fact a given that if the fireworks do not come, you will in fact, be waiting for a lifetime?

Like I said, I believe that we are on the verge of a massive economic downturn. After this downturn, I think it would be an ideal to buy. I do believe prices will fall 20-35% during this time. If you want an exact date, it will be wrong of course. My timeframe is 2-4 years. We should see a severe recession within this time.

And if 5 years from now, we continue to kick the can, your plan will be (a) realize you are wrong and then buy or (b) wait juuuuust a little longer. My suspicion is B, but I guess we shall see.

Incidentally, you should maybe also set upside and downside targets too. Downside is easy enough, but what if its say, 2016 and prices have gone up another 8% to 10% - will that be enough to put you into action, or do you then still wait for your 20-35% (or perhaps that + the 8-10% in the interim)? I dont expect you to answer that, as these are really really tough questions - the type that cannot be answered on the fly in the middle of a discourse.

Again, I am sorry I upset you, but I offer this as some constructive criticism. The manner in which you write, the near "certainty" of your conviction of an imminent decline - and the fact that (despite 2+ years of seeing nothinburgers) your conviction has not changed in the slightest - it all reminds me of the guy I happen to know who spent 20+ years, constantly putting his target just out of his reach.

Thus, if we do get to 1/31/2017 and the debt is still massive, and the printing continues, and the various interweb pundits are still screeching "imminent calamity", just remember that conversation you had with that Cdon asshole on 1/31/2013 before you decide what you do next.

CDon says

but what if its say, 2016 and prices have gone up another 8% to 10% - will that be enough to put you into action

What if prices skyrocket to 2007 levels, doesn't that mean we returned to an unsustainable bubble? Wages are falling so any price increase is not sustainable IMO. The current price level is not sustainable in most metro areas without gov't intervention.

It is obvious that you don't understand the economic situation we are in. I am not willing to waste anymore time trying to explain to a novice where this country is headed.

Anyone of us can die tomorrow so why even bother saving for retirement? This appears to be your way of thinking.

HousingBoom says

Wages are falling so any price increase is not sustainable IMO

http://news.yahoo.com/personal-income-posts-biggest-gain-eight-years-133706758--business.html

tatupu70 says

HousingBoom says

Wages are falling so any price increase is not sustainable IMO

http://news.yahoo.com/personal-income-posts-biggest-gain-eight-years-133706758--business.html

Nice find. We'll see how this plays out in the next few months.

underwaterman says

Do a thought experiment and imagine the FED removed today all forms of monetary
manipulation distorting the timing and the market including things like
ZIRP,
85 billion per month MBS, HAMP/etc, forcing banks to really mark assets to
market, guaranteeing 90% of all new mortgages of Fannie and Freddie, etc.

If you go back to my earlier discourse, you will see that I agree with you 100%. Thats why I happen to believe that the can kicking will continue, far longer than anyone can contemplate.

I also disagree with you in scope - in that I think you are to sanguine in your idea of what would happen. Namely, if you happen to read the writing or testimony of Bernanke, Ackerloff, etc. you can see how seriously they treat it. Back in 08, the Ted Spread was going crazy - A1/P2 blew right through previous benchmarks of volatility seen during the 1930s. Rightly or wrongly, they believed we were on the verge of a liquidity trap - the type of which, (should it unwind too quickly) can be a recipe for massive social unrest. In so many ways, we are not that different from the various banana republics where they call for revolution when things move too swiftly. Thus, in lieu of rolling the tanks - they engaged in a massive can kicking campaign, the types of which we have not seen in decades.

And therein is why timing is absolutely an issue. In 305, emperor diocletian set forth a series of monetary reforms that would be the undoing of the roman empire - and 1,100 years later, they were proven correct. Likewise, the height of the UK's hegemonic power was probably 200+ years ago, and in various corners of the world, their empire has indeed collapsed. Yet, in the core, on the islands itself, its business as usual.

And therein is why I ask for stricter calls to timing. And no I dont mean to the day, or even to the year. Still, I am but a finite being, I have say 40 trips around the sun to set my investment affairs in order. This makes me but a blip compared to the potential magnitude of the forces at play here. Thus, if in the year 2138 the historians note we finally had the currency collapse that so many had predicted, it does me little good in that I would have long since been dead and buried.

HousingBoom says

It is obvious that you don't understand the economic situation we are in. I am
not willing to waste anymore time trying to explain to a novice where this
country is headed.

Please see my retort to underwaterman above. Respectfully, I dont think you understand the seriousness of the potential consequences we faced - at least in the minds of TPTB. Ripping the band aid off was not an option - revolutions are borne on the shoulders of such events. As such, the only option was to make this a long slow and unremarkable decline, such that we go the way of the Romans or the Brittish, and not the way of the Ottomans or the Soviets who collapsed virtually overnight.

CDon says

HousingBoom says

It is obvious that you don't understand the economic situation we are in. I am
not willing to waste anymore time trying to explain to a novice where this
country is headed.

Please see my retort to underwaterman above. Respectfully, I dont think you understand the seriousness of the potential consequences we faced - at least in the minds of TPTB. Ripping the band aid off was not an option - revolutions are borne on the shoulders of such events. As such, the only option was to make this a long slow and unremarkable decline, such that we go the way of the Romans or the Brittish, and not the way of the Ottomans or the Soviets who collapsed virtually overnight.

Dont get me wrong, it very well still could go kaboom overnight, but im not sure if that is going to be a problem for me, or even my grandchildren, but instead their grandchildren. Accordingly, I am not going to wait on an event that can outlast me, easily by a full lifetime.

underwaterman says

You really don't need to time it from my perspective. One can simply sit in
gold or silver and watch the currency devalue in real time irrespective when the
collapse happens and profit from either end (collapse or waiting while the
currency debases). Look at a chart of what gold has done in currencies for the
past 12 years. That isn't going to stop until money printing or currency wars
end and they won't end until the system collapses.

Fair enough - but see a difference between where you are sitting, and HousinBoom is sitting. He is waiting, on the assumption that the collapse is very, very near. And if it does not happen soon, he may be willing to wait it out for a lifetime - hence my entire comment thread.

Cdon said earlier that he had to foreclose on 3 of his investment homes when he bought in 2006. He said he feels like an idiot and a loser.

HousingBoom says

Cdon said earlier that he had to foreclose on 3 of his investment homes when he bought in 2006. He said he feels like an idiot and a loser.

Really? Is this the way all discourse on Patnet is destined to end?

As an aside, assuming all those aspersions of me were true, how does that change the contents of my argument?

CDon says

HousinBoom is sitting. He is waiting, on the assumption that the collapse is very, very near. And if it does not happen soon, he may be willing to wait it out for a lifetime

Then stop putting words in my mouth. Just because you have no valid argument, you shouldn't twist other people's words. I never said "I am willing to it out for a lifetime"

HousingBoom says

CDon says

HousinBoom is sitting. He is waiting, on the assumption that the collapse is very, very near. And if it does not happen soon, he may be willing to wait it out for a lifetime

Then stop putting words in my mouth. Just because you have no valid argument, you shouldn't twist other people's words. I never said "I am willing to it out for a lifetime"

I said "may" because you seem unwilling or perhaps unable to pick a time upon which you will reconsider your thesis.

Lets try this a different way. Assume its now the year 2063 - the fed is still printing like mad, and the stagnation continues, with no calamity having taken place - at what point in that 50 year time continuum will you have purchased?

CDon says

Lets try this a different way. Assume its now the year 2063 - the fed is still printing like mad, and the stagnation continues, with no calamity having taken place - at what point in that 50 year time continuum will you have purchased?

This proves my point. Crack for brains think we can print trillions out of thin air for the next 50 years. lol. I'm done. you know what they say, never argue with an idiot, they'll bring you down to their level then beat you with experience.

I'm willing to bet anybody 5 ounces of gold that there will be no economic collapse in the next 2 years. 20 for 5.

"I don't understand economics so I'm scared by arbitrary statistics" is a weird way to live your life.

HousingBoom says

Crack for brains think we can print trillions out of thin air for the next 50
years.

It is frustrating but Japan has been doing it for 20+ years..........

HousingBoom says

This proves my point. Crack for brains think we can print trillions out of thin
air for the next 50 years.

Out of curiosity, what have they have been doing for the last 200 years? If they have done it for 200, why can they not do it for another 50?

yup1 says

HousingBoom says

Crack for brains think we can print trillions out of thin air for the next 50

years.

It is frustrating but Japan has been doing it for 20+ years..........

There is a good possibility that we will be like Japan but we can already see inflationary forces right now in food and other commodities.

The Professor says

It does not look like the Federal Reserve (established December 23, 1913) helped with smoothing out the business cycle; quite the contrary. I also noticed that our economy booms with war.

Are you looking at the same chart as I am? Certainly, the Federal Reserve didn't instantaneously change things, but clearly the business cycle has been smoother after WWII. To what do you attribute that change?

The Professor says

tatupu70 says

OK--Here is a chart showing US GDP since the early 1800s. You tell me--does it look like there were more boom/bust cycles before 1970 or after 1970?

It does not look like the Federal Reserve (established December 23, 1913) helped with smoothing out the business cycle; quite the contrary. I also noticed that our economy booms with war.

That is graphing business cycles it is not even showing the 2008 crash, HAHA

HousingBoom says

Yup, that's a possibility. The fact that central banks are trying to hoard as
much gold as possible tells me that they are losing faith in the system. The
system does not have to fail for home prices to fall another 20%+. That is all I
am expecting at best.

I fully expect you see your 20% - however, as has been the case for the last 3 years, I fully expect you see it in the form of nominal stagnation while inflation slowly works its magic and the remaining slack in the system is removed. You have very little upside risk in waiting IMO.

The Professor says

If the crash happens those with property and precious metals will be ok, not
great, ok. Those in paper (401k, stocks, bonds, etc.) are screwed.

If the crash happens all asset prices will get crushed. Cash is king when credit is collapsing.

yup1 says

That is graphing business cycles it is not even showing the 2008 crash, HAHA

Did you look at the x-axis? The chart is a little dated, I'll grant, but it clearly shows underwater was very, very wrong.

yup1 says

The Professor says

If the crash happens those with property and precious metals will be ok, not

great, ok. Those in paper (401k, stocks, bonds, etc.) are screwed.

If the crash happens all asset prices will get crushed. Cash is king when credit is collapsing.

It's going to be a crash but we don't know if it's a deflationary one (stock market collapse) or inflationary (bond market and/or dollar collapse). The job market is the biggest factor for home prices. All I know is that the job market will be in a world of hurt when this occurs. This will not be a soft landing like most bulls are predicting. The longer it doesn't happen, the bigger the bubble and the bigger the collapse will be

tatupu70 says

HousingBoom says

Wages are falling so any price increase is not sustainable IMO

http://news.yahoo.com/personal-income-posts-biggest-gain-eight-years-133706758--business.html

That is from early dividend payouts for tax purposes. It will not continue.

yup1 says

That is from early dividend payouts for tax purposes. It will not continue.

Maybe, maybe not. But to say that incomes are falling is not right.

tatupu70 says

Maybe, maybe not. But to say that incomes are falling is not right.

That payroll tax just killed any hopes of an increase in wages. lol

tatupu70 says

Maybe, maybe not. But to say that incomes are falling is not right.

Sorry on that point you are incorrect.

http://beschloss.blogs.mydesert.com/2013/01/07/flat-per-capita-incomes-weigh-on-us-employment-sector/

HousingBoom says

That payroll tax just killed any hopes of an increase in wages. lol

You got that right!

yup1 says

Sorry on that point you are incorrect.

I didn't know your timeframe was a decade. I figured you were referring to present time

robertoaribas says

54k down to 50K sounds about right for the crisis

I was only linking to show the income drop I did not read his crappy blog :D

tatupu70 says

I didn't know your timeframe was a decade. I figured you were referring to
present time

Oh yes more long term, short term gains are too volatile. And that is the average which is dragged higher by the high end. A better statisic would be median incomes which are hopelessly low, 26k is the median single wage in the US, DOH!

HousingBoom says

This will not be a soft landing like most bulls are predicting.

While written today - this could have just have easily been written 3 years ago.

For the last 3 years, despite you continuing to call for a "collapse", it has been the soft landing as each crisis turns into nothingburger after nothingburger. So again, is there any point in the next 0-50 where you decide to re-evaluate your conclusion? Is there any point in the next 0-50 years when you say, "gee, I guess there is not going to be a second collapse after all"?

And if not a date, how bout an event? If the DJIA hits say XYZ then you will change your tune. Or perhaps if unemployment hits ABC then you will reconsider...

BTW - if the answer for you is "I dont know" so be it. It just seems to me that anyone this "certain" of something, despite the some or even any evidence to the contrary, is setting themselves up for a lifetime of disappointment.

CDon says

For the last 3 years, despite you continuing to call for a "collapse", it has
been the soft landing as each crisis turns into nothingburger after
nothingburger. So again, is there any point in the next 0-50 where you decide to
re-evaluate your conclusion? Is there any point in the next 0-50 years when you
say, "gee, I guess there is not going to be a second collapse after all"?

I guess I would ask why do you believe that 2008 cannot be repeated? What has changed to stop that from happening? Nothing. Do you think that the Fed can bailout everything if everyone decides to sell? When will you get concerned with the Fed balance sheet 5 Trillion, 10 Trillion, 50 Trillion?

yup1 says

I guess I would ask why do you believe that 2008 cannot be repeated?

Because he's a mental midget!

yup1 says

I guess I would ask why do you believe that 2008 cannot be repeated? What has changed to stop that from happening? Nothing. Do you think that the Fed can bailout everything if everyone decides to sell? When will you get concerned with the Fed balance sheet 5 Trillion, 10 Trillion, 50 Trillion?

Lots of reasons why 2008 can't be repeated anytime soon:
Home prices are not overpriced anymore. They are under priced.
Recent home purchases are not leveraged with zero downs. Many were all cash.
Interest rates are a lot lower.
Economy is not sinking anymore, but making a slow come back.
The worst is over, the future is bright.

Raw says

Recent home purchases are not leveraged with zero downs.

So 3% FHA loans do not happen?

Raw says

Home prices are not overpriced anymore.

So says those that own, those that rent believe the opposite, some of those that own (me) still believe the opposite. Home prices are being supported by low interest rates. What happens if rates rise?