patrick.net

robertoaribas says

cool! I can use this in my "bad graphs" statistics lecture! Thanks!!!

Great idea! I also found it useful to include negative examples in teaching material as well as positive.

They are trying to show that the medium house price is part of a bigger conspiracy theory. It is some god-like realtor just drawing a picture of a butterfly. There is no real economics behind it. Looks like the picture is no completed, so what now? Uh Oh.

California Association of Realtors-No hidden agendas here?

What's interesting is the table on the left which shows home prices have incresed 12 fold over 40 years.
Real estate was, is, and always will be the best investment ever.
In the long run the bears are always wrong.

I think it means "grab your ankles, you are in for a sales pitch".

Raw says

In the long run the bears are always wrong.

Nobody outlives inflation.

ChrisKolmar says

What does this graph even mean?

good question, it's needlessly confusing.

Raw says

What's interesting is the table on the left which shows home prices have incresed 12 fold over 40 years.
Real estate was, is, and always will be the best investment ever.

In 1970, a Mustang Boss 302 cost $3,700 and a 2013 model costs 42,000 (11 fold increase). In 1970 the Dow Jones was 800 (17 fold increase). Housing is somewhere between new cars and the stock market.

Oh and if you had the foresight to stick new 70 boss in storage you could sell it for $80k today easy.

So I think we figured out what it's showing. The thing on the right depicts how much the median home costs based on the length of a ray. So the longer the ray, the higher the median price in that year.

So yea.. it says everything the chart on the left says, just 20x harder to understand.

For the right half, the angle of each ray indicates the year (straight up == 1970, each year after 1970 is approximately 4 additional degrees clockwise, until you end up with 2012 straight down). As you say, the length of the ray indicates the median price.

This graph is BRILLIANT. How do you indicate that prices are on the rise when your own data indicates that within the last decade the median price was 75% higher than it is now? Easy, highlight only some data points. How do you present this graphically, when a straightforward graph will immediately show the recent drops? Not so easy, but still possible: instead of presenting a normal Cartesian coordinate system graph (X-Y), use a polar coordinate system.

I'm staying with my butterfly theory. However, now I think it is a dead butterfly. They just sprayed it with hardener to give it the appearance of being alive. Once you sign up for the 30 years of payments then they reveal to you that it is actually dead. ;)

It means: now is the time to buy - call your friendly agent now!! House prices can only go up! ;)

varmint says

ChrisKolmar says

What does this graph even mean?

good question, it's needlessly confusing.

Raw says

What's interesting is the table on the left which shows home prices have incresed 12 fold over 40 years.

Real estate was, is, and always will be the best investment ever.

In 1970, a Mustang Boss 302 cost $3,700 and a 2013 model costs 42,000 (11 fold increase). In 1970 the Dow Jones was 800 (17 fold increase). Housing is somewhere between new cars and the stock market.

Oh and if you had the foresight to stick new 70 boss in storage you could sell it for $80k today easy.

Most cars don't appreciate like the Mustang Boss. Besides, unlike a house, you can't live in a car.
6% annual compounded for something you need, along with tax benefits is just unbeatable. For the average Joe, real estate is the best and easiest way to accumulate wealth.

Raw says

unlike a house, you can't live in a car

Raw I wish you could just shut your big YAPPER!

You could also throw up a chart of prioces since we went off the gold standard. Or the devaluation of the dollar since the Federal Reserve was created a century ago(a 95% loss). Your chart is just reflecting the dollar has lost its value and government lies about inflation.

And while your homes selling price has increased so has the cost of most goods. Suppose prices go back to their bubble highs. But milk is now $30 a gallon. A loaf of bread $20. You think you sold your home at new highs, but the dollars exchanged bought you less than you could just a few years prior. Your chart also doesn't take into consideration the input costs of owning a home. How much money was extracted via property taxes, insurance, hoa, new roofs, heating/cooling costs, lawn mowing, vegetation, commute time to work?

Raw says

Most cars don't appreciate like the Mustang Boss.

It was more a statement that many things cost 10 times or more what they did in 1970. A can of Campbell's tomato soup cost $0.10.

Raw says

Besides, unlike a house, you can't live in a car.

Thanks. Just checking, is it possible to drive my house?

I like it! It's definitely Chunder-style mobile living. Unfortunately, I'd need to hire a sizable road crew anytime I had to run an errand.

Raw says

Most cars don't appreciate like the Mustang Boss. Besides, unlike a house, you can't live in a car.

6% annual compounded for something you need, along with tax benefits is just unbeatable. For the average Joe, real estate is the best and easiest way to accumulate wealth.

Absolutely true! Because of what you said it doesn't matter at all the purchase price. The higher the better. If it has gone up, then it will continue to go up even faster. That is the nature of the housing market. If it goes down (God forbid) then it just means it will go up even more once God is removed from the picture. Buy and buy as much as you can. Each morning should be a call to your bank to make sure you are extended to the maximum amount possible. Joe down the street is doing it, so you must as well, or you will end up working for Joe cleaning up his backyard. Do it and do it now! Extend and pretend wealth. It is the American dream.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Absolutely true! Because of what you said it doesn't matter at all the purchase price. The higher the better. If it has gone up, then it will continue to go up even faster. That is the nature of the housing market. If it goes down (God forbid) then it just means it will go up even more once God is removed from the picture. Buy and buy as much as you can. Each morning should be a call to your bank to make sure you are extended to the maximum amount possible. Joe down the street is doing it, so you must as well, or you will end up working for Joe cleaning up his backyard. Do it and do it now! Extend and pretend wealth. It is the American dream.

California real estate has been following a roughly 6 year cycle.
1980 - 1986 flat prices
1986 - 1991 sharp increases
1992 - 1998 falling prices
1998 - 2006 sharp increases
2007 - 2011 sharply falling prices
2012 - ???? sharply rising prices till 2018?
2018 - 2024 flat prices? Lets hope.
My biggest mistake one year ago when I started buying dirt cheap condos in prime Orange County locations was not leveraging myself with "free" money. My strategy at that time was to profit from high rental returns, with a possibility of prices doubling in 5 years. I did not expect such a sharp jump in prices. 50% increase for those condos in less than a year. I am still kicking myself for not leveraging at that time, but as they say hindsight is 20/20.
I have close friends who did not buy one year ago when they had the once in a lifetime golden opportunity to do so, and now they have missed the boat.
One day prices will fall, but it won't be in this decade my friend.

Raw says

My biggest mistake one year ago when I started buying dirt cheap condos in prime Orange County locations was not leveraging myself with "free" money.

Don't sweat it -- Victor Valley real esate still looks pretty good. Come on out.

JodyChunder says

Raw says

My biggest mistake one year ago when I started buying dirt cheap condos in prime Orange County locations was not leveraging myself with "free" money.

Don't sweat it -- Victor Valley real esate still looks pretty good. Come on out.

Would love to, I'll even buy you a drink, but prices have gone up there too. So now my strategy is to stick with zero leverage and buy land. Land will, IMO, outperform houses 5:1
I have done very well with land in the past.

Raw says

California real estate has been following a roughly 6 year cycle.

Yep. That seems to definitely be the case. It sort of leads back to my assertion that real estate nationally only really barely keeps up with inflation. Its just that in California the prices are more of a sawtooth pattern versus most of the rest of the country where its more of a very slow incline.

donjumpsuit says

So, $1.2m in 2018, then about $1.5m in 2024. This for a 3br/2ba in Milpitas.

I don't see anything wrong with this assessment.

All done on a household income of 85K and mortgage rates of 6%. The black market must be roaring in Milpitas! Yahooooo

A million will be the new thousand in 2024! They will be talking about getting ride of the $20 dollar bill. ;)

RentingForHalfTheCost says

donjumpsuit says

So, $1.2m in 2018, then about $1.5m in 2024. This for a 3br/2ba in Milpitas.

I don't see anything wrong with this assessment.

All done on a household income of 85K and mortgage rates of 6%. The black market must be roaring in Milpitas! Yahooooo

A million will be the new thousand in 2024! They will be talking about getting ride of the $20 dollar bill. ;)

The average homebuyer in California will just have to downsize over time. Smaller homes with smaller lots. That has been the trend for decades which we should expect will continue.

Raw says

The average homebuyer in California will just have to downsize over time. Smaller homes with smaller lots. That has been the trend for decades which we should expect will continue.

Good luck there. We couldn't possible only have houses track to salary inflation over the long run. Impossible. It has to explode to the upside, just has to! Many people's retirement is counting on that.

Raw says

Smaller homes with smaller lots. That has been the trend for decades which we
should expect will continue.

What fucking planet do you live on? That has not been the trend for decades you fucking ass wipe......

Nevada and Florida are starting to look a lot more attractive in the long run :)

Raw says

Would love to, I'll even buy you a drink, but prices have gone up there too

It's true...about 23% YOY. I confess, I didn't even see that coming.

yup1 says

Raw says

Smaller homes with smaller lots. That has been the trend for decades which we

should expect will continue.

What fucking planet do you live on? That has not been the trend for decades you fucking ass wipe......

yes.. take a look at home in SF (or any city) and compare when people moved to the burbs.. all of sudden people were cutting their lawns on weekends... and planting flowers.

thomaswong.1986 says

yup1 says

Raw says

Smaller homes with smaller lots. That has been the trend for decades which we

should expect will continue.

What fucking planet do you live on? That has not been the trend for decades you fucking ass wipe......

yes.. take a look at home in SF (or any city) and compare when people moved to the burbs.. all of sudden people were cutting their lawns on weekends... and planting flowers.

I looked and none of the houses (in the city or the burbs) have shrunk. I stood there for hours waiting for it to happen. I even seen some in the city cutting their lawn and planting flowers. Nonsense talk here.