patrick.net

All assumptions are destroyed by reality. But the people paying 1m for a house in menlo park really are running the numbers and buying looks 'ok' its not insane at all.

SFace says

donjumpsuit says

I could make an argument that I could rent a $4000 house, and get 3 roommates

who pay $1000 each, and keep my $271k

or I can make the argument you can buy the house pay 2,500 in permanent cost and still get three roomates who pay 1,000 each.

In the latter situation, I don't need permission from the landlord.

I did it in 2001. Worked great. Roomates didnt even care when I sold it for twice what I paid. (no i did not share profits hahaha). I went thru a bunch of roomates back then. The worst were the women. (never live with a woman you arent %&*#ing!!!! all the painintheass and none of the benefits.)

PockyClipsNow says

Based on the past it looks like silicon valley has almost no political pull when compared to the banks, the fed, and the nar (FIRE complex)

The dot com burst had about zero bailouts. All those failed companies failed. And they actually did real things like entertain or webvan delivered groceries. AIG and the banks simply push paperwork around, speculate, lend, insure- classic middlemen/parasites right?

none... zippo zilch... no bail out... but the tech bust was also more on tech companies that did hardware and software geared for enterprise class companies.. large Auto, Aerospace, Banking/Finance, Life Science/ etc etc etc. They dont get mentioned cause the media doesnt quiet understand it. The Toys.com and Webvan while high on the media list was a minority .. not a good example!

PockyClipsNow says

I suspect Patricks wife works so he can fart around all day with this website. If so, good job!!!!

LOL! Now that's funny. @Patrick, great job. That'd make two of us, and I'm very proud of it.

donjumpsuit says

If I had $271k in cash, I might lend it to a flipper at 14% a month.

Can I get the name of the flippers who are paying that kind of interest rate? I'd love to loan them some money at 10%/month, and I'll let you keep 4% referral fee.

Uh oh, the 'rich dads poor dads' are at it again, Everybody knows that houseownership is the secret TRILLION dollar cash-flow industry - call you agent and OWN now! ;)

mell says

Uh oh, the 'rich dads poor dads' are at it again

Didn't that guy declare bankruptcy and didn't his fancy, blonde wife dump him??

lostand confused says

mell says

Uh oh, the 'rich dads poor dads' are at it again

Didn't that guy declare bankruptcy and didn't his fancy, blonde wife dump him??

Apparently so. But he was going strong for quite a while ;)

PockyClipsNow says

Obviously renting was the wrong choice from 09 to 2012

I think people who rented made a good choice.

You are talking about dumping in a quarter of a million dollars into one asset, that is stagnant, and saves you rent money.

You are responsible for the care of the asset, and you still have three quaters of a million dollars in debt on your ledger, all so you can save money on rent.

You could say that the asset will increase to $1.3 Million, but how do you know? Even if it does increase in sales price will those be inflation dollars, or appreciation over inflation?

You don't know, because the Real Estate market place has billions of dollars in speculation money driving it.

The stock market is hot. You may not be able to afford to play, but speculators can certainly pull dollars from Real Estate assets, and invest elsewhere.

Kind of sounds very shakey to me. I spend a quarter of a million dollars of my hard earned money to put three quarters of a milion dollars in asset liability on my ledger sheet. Hmmmm...

E-man says

Can I get the name of the flippers who are paying that kind of interest rate?

Here in Seattle one company is called Vestus, and they have made a ton of money lending to want to be investors.

David Losh says

Kind of sounds very shakey to me. I spend a quarter of a million dollars of my hard earned money to put three quarters of a milion dollars in asset liability on my ledger sheet. Hmmmm...

Presumably that entirely depends on what a like-for-like comparison between rent and PITI looks like, how long you plan to spend in the property etc. etc. If all those things look OK for you, then why would you want to fund someone else's mortgage payments?

Bigsby says

If all those things look OK for you, then why would you want to fund someone else's mortgage payments?

They don't look OK to me.

I see plenty of people who are in over their heads in properties. It sounded like a good idea at the time, but they didn't know what they were buying into.

Another thing we see in Seattle is temporary contract positions that pay really well, but they have a five year span.

Many people here rent for what a mortgage payment would be. I don't get this idea that by buying you automatically are paying less. You have lost opportunity on your down payment, and are at the whim of a future Real Estate market place, that I have stated looks really suspect to me.

One year of double digit price hikes doesn't make a bull market, if you want to use those terms.

David Losh says

They don't look OK to me.

I see plenty of people who are in over their heads in properties. It sounded like a good idea at the time, but they didn't know what they were buying into.

Another thing we see in Seattle is temporary contract positions that pay really well, but they have a five year span.

Many people here rent for what a mortgage payment would be. I don't get this idea that by buying you automatically are paying less. You have lost opportunity on your down payment, and are at the whim of a future Real Estate market place, that I have stated looks really suspect to me.

One year of double digit price hikes doesn't make a bull market, if you want to use those terms.

How many of the people who bought in the last couple of years are in over their heads?

PockyClipsNow says

Somehow I have met a very large number of people with net worth > 1m from real estate.

At the same time, almost no one who rents and has a stock portfolio over 1m. I'm sure they are out there.

That's because you live in California where pretty much anyone who bought property between World War II up until a few years ago has realized huge gains. Go to other states and the incidence of real estate millionaires drops significantly.

I have friends who are worth a few billion $$$ who rented a 2 or 3 BR apartment until a couple of years ago. Admittedly, that's pretty unusual, but I have other friends who are very well off who rent because they have professional jobs that require moving every few years.

Not for a 1-2 bedroom condo when you figure in the down payment, insurance and taxes. I ran the numbers and unless rent goes to 3k a month its a wash.

Bigsby says

How many of the people who bought in the last couple of years are in over their heads?

All of them,

So, with 20% down plus double digit price hikes, your claim is that these peopple who bought are now whole, and on the way to a profit.

Two years doesn't make a market place for Real Estate. None of these people could sell today, and be made whole.

Here are some interesting things that keep getting ignored.

The reason no one looks at data for apartment construction is that it really doesn't mean a lot beyond the municiplity that issues the permit, but here in Seattle, apartment construction is rising:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-05/seattle-signals-glut-risk-as-apartment-construction-rises.html

This idea that your mortgage is half the price of rent isn't really true either. I find there is a per centage at today's rates, but it isn't half the cost when you figure the debt load, plus maintaining the property.

Look at the people who buy, and end up at Home Depot each week end to remodel the house they just bought to make it the way they like it.

Don't worry, we can fix it! No matter how much damage they do, or uncover in the process, we can fix it!

Rents are falling, buying is a huge expense, and going forward I don't see why people will be paying higher rents. If rents determine value, that price of property will also decline.

This thread is luck giving a sucker punch to 3rd grade math. Silly

David Losh says

Look at the people who buy, and end up at Home Depot each week end to remodel
the house they just bought to make it the way they like it.

Ever wonder how much profits are made by the 3 home improvement stores with their in-store credit cards? Most people are cash poor after buying and use those cards pretty heavy for things like fixutres and paint. Home dpeot didn't get that big by cash only sales alone.

upisdown says

Ever wonder how much profits are made by the 3 home improvement stores with their in-store credit cards? Most people are cash poor after buying and use those cards pretty heavy for things like fixutres and paint. Home dpeot didn't get that big by cash only sales alone.

Brick-and-mortar is pretty much a break even business today. These companies are running on basically 40% maintained margin for their goods, with 15%+ lease costs and 10%+ payroll, and operations eats up the rest. Without running credit programs, they would basically be operating to pay wages and put a name on a building.

David Losh says

All of them,

So, with 20% down plus double digit price hikes, your claim is that these peopple who bought are now whole, and on the way to a profit.

Two years doesn't make a market place for Real Estate. None of these people could sell today, and be made whole.

WTF are you blathering about?

You don't make sense.

How the hell do you pay under $2000 a month for a 1million home? Mortgage alone is going to be much much higher than that.

And taxes, property taxes aren't cheap. Your property taxes alone would be higher than most peoples mortgages around the country.

And I know you wrote some hypothetical scenario about %2.75 Interest Only Arm... but that is stupid. That is what got everyone in this country in trouble in the first place, not to mention I doubt any bank would take that kind of risk today.

The Professor says

Question to all of the investors: If all your leveraged properties dropped in
value, your renters left, and you could not afford maintenance, taxes, ansd
insurance, what would you do?

I know my scenario above is highly unlikely but the stated answer by many
investors is walk. Bankruptcy or whatever it takes, many investors will not be
responsible

All?, not very likely. But, a similar situation or close to what you described has already happened. We survived, and everybody else did too. The economic downturn took out some flippers, but that was likely to happen anyway due to their philosophy about housing in general which is by doing the least amount of work and expending the least amount of resources, while trying to extract the most profit. People get wise fairly quick to the polished turd routine, with new paint of course.

FortWayne says

You don't make sense.

How the hell do you pay under $2000 a month for a 1million home? Mortgage alone is going to be much much higher than that.

And taxes, property taxes aren't cheap. Your property taxes alone would be higher than most peoples mortgages around the country.

And I know you wrote some hypothetical scenario about %2.75 Interest Only Arm... but that is stupid. That is what got everyone in this country in trouble in the first place, not to mention I doubt any bank would take that kind of risk today.

Its not hypothetical, this is the loan I got!
If anyone wants this loan go to unionbank.com today and get it.

robertoaribas says

yeah, someone that bought a home 2 years ago, has been paying a mortgage far less than rent

True in a lot of places like Phoenix. But in the SFBA, 2 years of the savings of renting vs owning is pretty equal to the manipulated price advance that we are witnessing. I'd take the increase in my savings any day over the hope that the games will continue.

FortWayne says

You don't make sense.

How the hell do you pay under $2000 a month for a 1million home? Mortgage alone is going to be much much higher than that.

And taxes, property taxes aren't cheap. Your property taxes alone would be higher than most peoples mortgages around the country.

And I know you wrote some hypothetical scenario about %2.75 Interest Only Arm... but that is stupid. That is what got everyone in this country in trouble in the first place, not to mention I doubt any bank would take that kind of risk today.

Interest only ARM loans...

Risky when you have the skin in the game. If you sell before the next downturn, you win big tho.

Mobi says

Interest only ARM loans...

Risky when you have the skin in the game. If you sell before the next
downturn, we win big tho.

Yes, but I think Popy put a down payment of 100-200k? Now if it is a zero down payment ARM only-I guess that is worth it?

David Losh says

Two years doesn't make a market place for Real Estate. None of these people
could sell today, and be made whole.

Does not make sense. I know at least one case personally (at lot more than that if I do the research) who was made whole by buying and selling within the last couple years.

For this loan unionbank requires a 20%+ down payment.
I would have loved to do a zero down loan - the closest loan left is FHA and the rates and fees are high.

I totally am going to sell this home in the next zero to two years. A 30 year fixed loan would have been dumb IMO.

lostand confused says

Mobi says

Interest only ARM loans...

Risky when you have the skin in the game. If you sell before the next
downturn, we win big tho.

Yes, but I think Popy put a down payment of 100-200k? Now if it is a zero down payment ARM only-I guess that is worth it?

Correct. That is whay I meant to have skin in the game. Pretty much you want to unload it before the next down turn.

lostand confused says

PockyClipsNow says

At the same time, almost no one who rents and has a stock portfolio over 1m.

Unrelated, but this reminded me of the poor Enron lady. She was an employee of Enron and was ready to retire I think and had 1 million dollars of Enron in her 401K I think. When the sh*t hit the fan, she couldn't sell , the executives sold and then her 1 million became worthless! Poor lady.

I think the old proverb goes something like this:

Better to have been rich and lost, than to never have been rich at all

; )

Bigsby says

WTF are you blathering about?

robertoaribas says

what a complete idiot... it is really unbelievable!!!!

yeah, someone that bought a home 2 years ago, has been paying a mortgage far less than rent, and has seen the home value go up 10 to 30% depending on where has done fine. Only the absolute dumbest person in the whole world can't understand that, cue david lush.

That is the most ridiculous assertion in the sales person hype bag.

First it's the less than rent blather, now it's that double digit price hikes have made people whole.

So, it's 10% to sell, we have the one year of price hikes, and Hmmm.... I'm the idiot?

10% to 30%, Hmmm.... do you mean from Case Shiller, Zillow, Trulia, and what other source? Is that a universal set of truths of more anecdotal information.

Mobi says

Does not make sense. I know at least one case personally (at lot more than that if I do the research) who was made whole by buying and selling within the last couple years.

What doesn't make sense is that some one bought to sell two years later who wasn't an investor flipper kind of person.

rent STILL cost twice the mortgage

Then rents are too high.

KarlRoveIsScum says

If you can afford to rent a home worth $1M there is something wrong with you if you don't buy!

This is a very helpful, succinct statement illustrating why a majority make owning a house their biggest financial goal.

Why do rental payments have to equal mortgage payments?

There are many places in the world where rents are cheap, but home buying is incredibly expensive - and vice versa.

It's the Austrian/Neoclassical fantasy about equilibriums.

I actually got a 5 year IO ARM on my house. I only used the 3 year in the example because its common to move every 2 years, then you got an extra year which seems safe.

We know the pattern that established from last bubble:
buy and then every 2 years sell for tax free gain to trade into better house
repeat
repeat
..
bankruptcy and/or foreclosure/loan mod/short sell etc.

The IO arm loan is perfect for such a lifestyle. The bubble jumping job hoppers like me will appreciate it.

David Losh says

That is the most ridiculous assertion in the sales person hype bag.

First it's the less than rent blather, now it's that double digit price hikes have made people whole.

So, it's 10% to sell, we have the one year of price hikes, and Hmmm.... I'm the idiot?

Maybe you should stop saying things like 'none of these people (who bought within the last 2 years) could sell today, and be made whole.' Actually, why don't you just explain what the hell that is supposed to mean?

thunderlips11 says

It's the Austrian/Neoclassical fantasy about equilibriums.

Austrians are quite explicitly against equilibrium theories. The Keynesians OTOH are quite fond of equilibria.

Bigsby says

Actually, why don't you just explain what the hell that is supposed to mean?

I don't know anyone in today's retail market who could sell in 2 years, and come out with a profit.

Flippers might, if they were scrambling for a deal, but I don't know any homies, who are in multiple offers, no inspection, and now no appraisal, escalator clause offers who are doing well.

Bigsby says

Actually, why don't you just explain what the hell that is supposed to mean?

Actually why don't you explain it to me, because so far you have said nothing other than demand proof from me, about my statements, which I have readily supplied you.

If you already know this Real Estate market place is heavily manipulated then why play?

It seems exceedingly risky to me.

David Losh says

Bigsby says

Actually, why don't you just explain what the hell that is supposed to mean?

I don't know anyone in today's retail market who could sell in 2 years, and come out with a profit.

Flippers might, if they were scrambling for a deal, but I don't know any homies, who are in multiple offers, no inspection, and now no appraisal, escalator clause offers who are doing well.

Most people who buy to live in the property themselves aren't going to sell in 2 years, but the point was you claimed they are all in over their heads. That is just blathering nonsense on your part and is completely unsupported by the actual facts. I bought 18 months ago and am more than happy with both the purchase and the price. I'm not in over my head, so you are wrong.