patrick.net

robertoaribas says

meanwhile, in this place called REALITY, a place that most pat.net readers
and writers have never heard of, rents in many cities are increasing; In some of
the worst hit cities, the rents of single family homes are flat, while apartment
complex rents are increasing...

pat.net = hysterical nonsense by people looking for an excuse to be scared of
something.

Your reality is Phoenix, just like my reality is Sacramento. I am sure you could take me around Phoenix and convince me that things are looking up, your rentals are rented, life is good. I am certain that I could take you around Sacramento and scare the shit out of you about how bad things are.

KarlRoveIsScum says

so there is a frenzy!

Typical frenzy situation: Buy now see later what you just bought.
http://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/In-hot-market-bid-first-see-house-later-4408233.php

robertoaribas says

pat.net = hysterical nonsense by people looking for an excuse to be scared of something.

It scares me you are dispensing Real Estate advice?

Here in Seattle rents are stabalizing because within the city of Seattle alone, there are 11,000 apartment units under construction, 2200 of them in Ballard alone.

robertoaribas says

I said sell in 2005, 2006... (and I sold) when it was a great time to sell...

So did I.

robertoaribas says

I said buy starting in 2010,

I said buy in 2008, to 2011. I stopped at August of 2011.

robertoaribas says

david losh, you have said consistently not to buy for the past 2 years,

That's right, it's not smart to buy into a hot market.

robertoaribas says

.

you've proven over and over how stupid you are, with your posts on here.

You certainly have proved you have a very limited working knowledge of the Real Estate Industry.

You part time residential Real Estate sales people are a concern to me. You made your money in Real Estate by simply following you computer screen. What you did wasn't smart, it was luck. You were lucky, so you should be grateful, and position yourself for future gains.

robertoaribas says

your advice is worth nothing next to mine.

Many people have made a lot of money by listerning to me.

I am sincerely asking and wondering if the RE bears are playing this situation real time with skin $$$ in the game or just by posting some article or opinion they have or have adopted which is fine, just like sitting on the sidelines is cool and sometimes best ?
However please tell me if I were bearish on RE how can I play the short side and make some $$$? How are the bears actually making money in the RE industry as an investment.

IMHO investors can look with a measure of confidence to have 20% more price appreciation for the ones who got into RE at the bottom. Flippers can figure/target the same appreciation going in today rather they get it or not is yet to be seen however I place a high probability they will, prices have confirmed they are going up that is a fact, maybe not at warp speed but they are going up. (I know a real revelation...lol)

My best guess of the #'s there are 18mo. to 2yrs. in this play before the selling pressure starts to mount up with the "potential" of toppling price. If anyone here is actually on the fence and thinking about buying now would be better then next year in that the situation of chasing price may be a bigger part of the scenario.

The most liquid REIT's might be a better risk play then RE itself (easier anyway). If you really think you are or will be seeing RE collapse in the near time then there are REIT shorts to exploit.

Either way you see it get in the game and have some fun, make your bets whatever they are long or short. Skin the cat, it can be done more than 1 way.

robertoaribas says

yeah, says the jackass who bought in Atlanta for $90K only to sell later at $30K...

You're not worth engaging. You have no point to make.

It was $60K, but the point was that not all markets were appreciating, and they won't continue to.

robertoaribas says

One of us started a company sending his wife and kids out to clean toilets and floors, does that sound like someone who did well in real estate?

If you looked at the global market place rather than your Multiple Listing Sales data you would have seen the changes in the global economy in 2011, and the Feds response to drop interest rates by 1% in a year.

You didn't see it, and still don't.

We invested in our company rather than Real Estate and it has paid off. While you are done we are still growing market share.

Money is money professor.

robertoaribas says

Whereas, I bought in phoenix at 103K, sold for $176K in 2004, bought for $200K, in 2002, sold for $370K in 2005,

I missed this, because I don't really read your comments, but you have to be kidding with these pathetic numbers.

You're a complete ametuer.

Many factors to consider about hitting a peak:

1. inventory (i.e. months on market for lower end units)
2. price to rent ratio
3. interest rates
4. local unemployment rate
5. net income as a percentage of principal, interest, taxes, insurance and maintenance (PITIM) or average % return on investment if the home sale was not financed
6. vacancy rates of rental properties

Somebody needs to write a forecasting algorithm with the above as an input data file.

The Professor says

And then you engage him.

That is the last time. It's just pointless, there is nothing there.