patrick.net

Seller's market: buy now or be priced out forever
Buyer's market: never a better time to buy

Conclusion: buy, buy, buy :)

not investment advice

Thanks TFS.

You're both an introducing and executing broker for CME CSI Futures? Any way you can hint at what kind of liquidity the options are seeing?

SHTF,

Congratulations. My wife and I made the same decision a few months ago and I look forward to our own move as soon as I have a job nailed down. Life is too short to be put on hold indefinitely, or be held hostage to credit bubbles and NIMBY politics.

Personally, I'm sick of California period. Current bubble aside, living here hasn't been even close to "affordable" or comfortable for working families in well over a generation. It still amazes me how people from other places have such an unrealistic rose-tinted view of the "California lifestyle", as though everyone who lives here is a successful actor, lawyer or surgeon, and we all live in Malibu. Simply put, life here stinks for the average person --shitty substandard housing, extreme overcrowding everywhere, a flood of illegal "free riders" simultaneously driving down wages and driving up taxes, perma-gridlock in most cities, hellishly hot summers (unless you're rich enough to live ~1 mile from the beach), shitty schools and high crime. Who could ask for anything more?

Someone else can take my CA Gold Wonka Housing Ticket the next time that rare, brief window of peasant affordability rolls around (2010, 2015?). I'm done waiting.

You’re both an introducing and executing broker for CME CSI Futures? Any way you can hint at what kind of liquidity the options are seeing?

Wow.

@tannenbaum,

Huntsville, AL, Raleigh, NC & Portland, OR are all top spots on my list. Aside from being very affordable and very livable, I have family and friends in these locations.

@George,

:lol: So, I'd be trading the frying pan for a somewhat more affordable saucepan?

Marin county is really pretty. Perhaps I should get a place in Fairfax near Jack. :)

@Ryno73,

Culture is great when you can afford it. All most CA "natives" have time and money to do is go to work to feed their mortgage(s). I'll grant you, the BA is a whole lot nicer than SCAL or Central Valley --especially along the coast. However, there are plenty of other locations rich in natural beauty where an average wage earner can live a whole lot better.

Peter P,

Thanks for the link. Calling the data sparse at this point doesn't seem to go far enough! I hope the chart "fleshes out" soon! Wouldn't that be crazy, if someone here became a super sharp CME housing futures trader and paid for his/her "post bubble manse" with trading profits?

I've vowed abstinence from this blog. But cannot resist ...

What distinct culture does BA have/offer, other than geek-making-money and mindless health freaks?

I’ve vowed abstinence from this blog. But cannot resist

This is why teaching abstinence may not work. :)

What distinct culture does BA have/offer, other than geek-making-money and mindless health freaks?

It has the very good sushi.

Wouldn’t that be crazy, if someone here became a super sharp CME housing futures trader and paid for his/her “post bubble manse” with trading profits?

Short of raising a minimum of 350M to set up hedge plays using said futures, I'm afraid the rest of us will have to wait for an ETF tracking those futures.

Yes, excellent international food one of the (few) things I'll miss about CA. Sadly, this does not come close to making up for the hellish rat race that life for non-elites here has become.

What distinct culture does BA have/offer, other than geek-making-money and mindless health freaks?

Compared to? Surely not your Heimat designate?

Yes, excellent international food one of the (few) things I’ll miss about CA. Sadly, this does not come close to making up for the hellish rat race that life for non-elites here has become.

To me, food is slightly more important than my life.

HARM,

Good to hear you being angry! More people in SoCal should be. When I was stationed in Long Beach, CA (early 80's) we made around a hundred dollars a week. The truth is though we had MORE disposable income than many of our civilian friends in the area. B/c our "housing" medical and dental plus all of our meals were covered the $400 a month was for partying (save for an occasional haircut).

I'll agree, it hasn't been affordable for most working people at least since then. But I had to light a powder keg under my old buddy to get him the hell out of there. It's like this strange "co-dependency" or weird fear that keeps people paying taxes for things they don't get to use, insurance thru the roof and unreal mo. mort. payments b/c they're afraid that if they leave things will revert back to being "cool"?

Compared to? Surely not your Heimat designate?

Shanghai is way better than BA, hands down, except for the horrible summer weather.

Randy H,

O.K just open the housing ETF's at $10 a share? These guys always seem so hungry for new offerings, I'm giving it 6 months! They don't necessarily have to base it on the Case Shiller model, they'll think of something.

Shanghai is way better than BA, hands down, except for the horrible summer weather.

Isn't it too hot in the summer. The pollution is likely to be worse though.

I heard that food in Shanghai is very good. :)

Not only can you save on the purchase price, but you can have instant equity in your home.

Instant equity?

When people say cultured places in America, NY and New England come to mind. Some parts of old South, too, although I haven't been there.

When we say cultured places on this planet, the old world come to mind. Italy, Southern France, old towns in China and India, blah, blah, and blah.

In cultured places, there are traditions and people know their places in this world.

The world cultured means aged when one talks about certain food items. But the same holds for the culture of a society.

CA has nice coast lines. Nice, but not great. When I was an intern at SGI in 1994, a bunch of intern geeks (mostly from the east coast) went to visit many parts of CA with a BA native. Cool. But I wasn't impressed. The east coast is far better, if not for the insufferable summer.

I don't know why building a mansion on a view cliff is such a grand thing. I for one would be bored by such a dwelling. Occasional weekend hideaways, yes. But primary dwellings? No way.

The so-called beautiful, expensive, scenary places are for middle-class suckers who never had money and struck rich later in their life.

About TFS, from CME, for those interested:

http://www.cme.com/files/TFSHousingPresentation.pdf

HARM,

Maybe I worded that incorrectly. Let me put it this way, even hacks like myself will from time to time hit a "decent" golf shot. Friends will kid you about how you're really "sandbagging" and are a better golfer than you let on.

But to yourself you're thinking "Man, and I was just about to give up this STUPID game entirely". "Maybe I don't suck as bad as I thought". So your love for the game is renewed all over again.

Are there rare instances where you find you CAN get home in under an hour? Where there IS a great sunset? Like just enough to keep you going?

HARM, SHTF,

Hope the decision works out for you. Good luck. It must have been a tough decision. But you have to do what you have to do. California - or any place - is not worth putting you life in mortgage slavery or on hold. You will miss something, you will gain something. As long as result is more aggregate happiness for you, that's all that matters.

RE: When is it a buyers' market? I think the reason realtors are calling this current market a buyers' market is that they really don't have a better name for it. It's a stagnant market really, where sellers and buyers both have no particular advantage, and the people who are worst off are the realtors due to lack of transactions. The realtor-spin is clearly calling this a buyers market to try and get transactions going again. However, until buyers set the agenda at negotiations (eg, when Randy's lowball offers get consistent and earnest counteroffers), that's when we're approaching a real buyers market.

And…I’m in my 40s and would like to know the feeling of ‘owning outright’.

It may not be a strong feeling... property tax, insurance, and other fees will still need to be paid.

It is better to be a king with everything provided for. :)

Governor Conan Says:

What distinct culture does BA have/offer, other than geek-making-money and mindless health freaks?

lol. Is there a 12-step program for blogging addiction?

The BA is overrated. I like it here just fine. It's certainly prettier, with better outdoor activities, food and possibly better culture than some parts of the country. However, it's definitely not the be-all and end-all.

Prettiness, outdoor activities: Tetons, Tahoe, PNW, Colorado Rockies, southern Utah all come to mind as prettier with better access to outdoor stuff (opinion).

Food: NYC is comparable, if not better.

Culture: NYC, Chicago, LA, ?DC, Boston are all comparable if not better.

There are just a lot of people in the BA who HAVE to believe this is a better place to live in order to justify the rat race, paying $1000/sf for crappy homes, hellish commutes, and overcrowdedness in general.

Food: NYC is comparable, if not better.

APAC cuisines taste funny in NYC, although it has much better Italian and Continental food.

Culture: NYC, Chicago, LA, ?DC, Boston are all comparable if not better.

To me, culture is all about food. Boston has good seafood.

I want close to a half acre…4br. and 3 baths and at least 2400 sq ft. And of course mature trees.

I do not know what I want yet...

Sometimes, I _dream_ about a 3000 sqft, 3 bedroom, 4.5 bath condo with a doorman.

Sometimes, I fancy a cute Victorian house.

Sometimes, I just do not care. :)

Good mexican food is tough to find in NYC and Boston. The BEST Thai I’ve ever had is at Brown Sugar in Boston. But I can’t claim to be an expert.

Good Mexican food is tough to find even in California. I am not an expert in Mexican food though.

It is actually not difficult to judge food even if you know nothing about the cuisine: food is considered good only if you can feel every ingredient singing.

A buyer's market means a young professional couple like me and my wife were 12 years ago could easily afford an average home in the blue ribbon neighborhoods of the Bay Area (3x household income) on a traditional 20% down, 30-year fixed rate mortgage.

A buyer's market means there were so few buyers as compared to the sellers that the sellers bent over backwards to make the sale happen, we got half a house full of furniture thrown in for free.

A buyer's market means the shell or whatever structure they erected on top of a lot is thrown in for free and seller will pay for the eradication. The shell will become a negative cost to the buyer.

I bought in the last buyer's market, and I will know when it is buyer's market again. We are far from it, but I can wait for 2009 or 2010.

For “high culture,” NYC edges the BA, in my opinion. For low culture, well, that’s what Graceland is for.

Graceland is pretty damned high culture in my book! IMO, NYC is a clearcut favorite over the BA for culture. NYC is among the world cities for art, music, dance, trendsetting. BA has maybe trendsetting for pop-culture, but that's about it.

APAC cuisines taste funny in NYC, although it has much better Italian and Continental food.

Have you been to NYC lately? Cheap Asian food is now better there than in the BA, I think. Chinese food in Flushing, Korean near Madison Sq Gdn, and all kinds of other stuff. Sushi's a wash between the two. Italian, pizza, deli food, bagels are hands down better in the east, but BA has better Mexican, California cuisine (duh!), and Southeast Asian. There are 4 restaurants in NYC with 3 Michelin stars. It'll be interesting to see how many the BA will get. French Laundry is a shoe-in, but the others, even Gary Danko, I'm not so sure about.

The BEST Thai I’ve ever had is at Brown Sugar in Boston. But I can’t claim to be an expert.

I agree, oddly enough, Brown Sugar in Boston of all places has great Thai. Lobster is cheap there, but the preparation is not any better than elsewhere. It's better in Maine and the Canadian Maritimes, anyway.

skibum,

Excellent definition! When lowball offers are actually being considered (not countered with ABOVE asking) we can say it's a (BM)* Did you hear that one? I couldn't believe how immature that was!

These sellers are all about "playing hardball" when it's their turn, but then we get into this playground mentality when it's not to their liking. Headset had a great post above where he describes sellers portraying us "vultures" after they HELOC the hell out of the home and expect us to pay for their consumption habits (that when you think about have little to do with the value of the home).

Shanghai has NO culture, everything is about cheap, imitated version of the American culture, Shanghainese take pride in having lunches at KFC, McDonald's and Pizza Hut, because they think it is high class.

No kidding, once a local girl told me pridefully, "you know, my family is quite well off, I am used to having meals at KFC, and I only eat Haagan Daaz icecream, Norwegian icecream is the best." I almost couldn't hold my laughter.

Governor Conan Says:

What distinct culture does BA have/offer, other than geek-making-money and mindless health freaks?

Well, as someone on the blog said earlier, the BA has certain things that make folks appreciate it more than others. For one, it has a Davies Symphony hall and a plethora of other theater/art outlets. No, it does not compare to the symphony in Vienna, but what does? Manhattan has more and better theater than the BA and the real estate is priced accordingly. But NY has miserable weather. The BA is very temperate. Folks in Chicago can enjoy great symphonies, shakespeare festivals, local summer fairs and lot's of water sports, but the weather has an almost 120 degree range. It can go from -20 to 100+ degrees in the span of 6 months. The locals even brag about the temperature range? Why are they bragging about freezing their toes off and then melting in the sun with 100% humidity?

I've worked in different parts of the US where you can't get good Chinese , Mexican, Thai or French within a 5 block radius. And some places don't even know what good Asian food is. A broad mix of different people bring all the "intangibles" together in the BA. Plus I like to snowboard. Can you drive 3 hours to go snowboarding from Dallas, Orlando, New Orleans or Alabama? Nope, you gotta fly. The BA has a whole lot of everything. You can live in a city, a suburb, a farm, in the mountains, in an exurb or in a hovel somewhere. Virutally every kind of lifestyle that sheople could want, you can find in or near the BA. Granted, I don't know much about the hunting scene in California, its probably sparse when compared to the midwest states. Many Americans would disagree with me, but I'd take good sushi over good hunting any day.

The BA is "different" because it does not have one distinct culture, it has many distinct cultures. But housing prices will go down ~ I hope.

Have you been to NYC lately? Cheap Asian food is now better there than in the BA, I think.

About two years ago. Higher-end Asian food was not that impressive. Surprisingly, Las Vegas has pretty good Asian food.

There are 4 restaurants in NYC with 3 Michelin stars. It’ll be interesting to see how many the BA will get.

I bet ZERO.

http://www.andyhayler.com/files/3_Michelin_Star_Restaurants.htm

Shanghai has NO culture, everything is about cheap, imitated version of the American culture, Shanghainese take pride in having lunches at KFC, McDonald’s and Pizza Hut, because they think it is high class.

I heard that food in Shanghai can be quite expensive in high-end restaurants (US$100+/person).

I love NYC, but the thought that it may easily come under another terrorist attack makes me hesitate about living there. Plus the weather is quite horrible in winter.

Peter P,

fusion food in Shanghai cost easily $100/pp, but the taste is quite ordinary, at least it won't make the cut for you, I am sure. Local food is dirt cheap, but what the nouveau riches really care for are the "western food", particularly Pizza Hut, Starbucks and Haagan Daaz, because these three brands define the "upper class lifestyle". What a wonderful job the American marketers are doing.

I would say the only other place that may have a chance to rival NYC in food is perhaps Tokyo. Shanghai is not even close, it ranks way below Hong Kong, Taipei and Singapore just in the non-Japan Asia region alone.

No kidding, once a local girl told me pridefully, “you know, my family is quite well off, I am used to having meals at KFC, and I only eat Haagan Daaz icecream, Norwegian icecream is the best.” I almost couldn’t hold my laughter.

But I thought they have good shark's fin and abalones. :)