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When Can We Call it a "Buyers Market?"


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2006 Aug 1, 1:17am   29,612 views  215 comments

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foreclosure for dummies

Scores of realtors® are throwing out the term "buyers market" hoping to lure buyers into purchasing the ever increasing inventory of overpriced $hitboxes that are currently on the market.

But most housing bears still aren't buying it. Is it because homes are still way too high in value? Or do you think it's just too early to say the buyers now have the advantage?

At what point would you call it a "buyers market?" What will you look for?

#housing

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69   OO   2006 Aug 1, 6:25am  

Peter P,

fusion food in Shanghai cost easily $100/pp, but the taste is quite ordinary, at least it won't make the cut for you, I am sure. Local food is dirt cheap, but what the nouveau riches really care for are the "western food", particularly Pizza Hut, Starbucks and Haagan Daaz, because these three brands define the "upper class lifestyle". What a wonderful job the American marketers are doing.

I would say the only other place that may have a chance to rival NYC in food is perhaps Tokyo. Shanghai is not even close, it ranks way below Hong Kong, Taipei and Singapore just in the non-Japan Asia region alone.

70   Peter P   2006 Aug 1, 6:25am  

No kidding, once a local girl told me pridefully, “you know, my family is quite well off, I am used to having meals at KFC, and I only eat Haagan Daaz icecream, Norwegian icecream is the best.” I almost couldn’t hold my laughter.

But I thought they have good shark's fin and abalones. :)

71   speedingpullet   2006 Aug 1, 6:28am  

OO said...
I love NYC, but the thought that it may easily come under another terrorist attack makes me hesitate about living there.

I wouldn't worry too much about it.

Most Western cities will have, or have had, terrorist attacks, and they're still there.
I lived in London during the 70s, 80s and 90s where the IRA would bomb something four or five times a year. Not to mention the July bombings of last year. People just got on with thier lives.

News Just In: Israeli troops near Baalbek in Northern Lebanon.
Take a moment to bend down and kiss your arse goodbye.

72   Peter P   2006 Aug 1, 6:30am  

I would say the only other place that may have a chance to rival NYC in food is perhaps Tokyo.

Chinese food tastes funny in Tokyo. IMO, Osaka area has better Japanese food than Tokyo. However, my friend told me that French cuisine in Tokyo is excellent.

I want to visit Taipei. I heard that Japanese food is very good yet inexpensive.

73   OO   2006 Aug 1, 6:31am  

All seafood (abalone inclusive) in China are severely polluted if they are not imported. The best abalones in the world come from the peninsula area south of Adelaide, and Hokkaido.

As far as shark's fin is concerned, there are lots of fake stuff in China. You probably want to head for Hong Kong and Vancouver BC for the real thing :-)

74   Peter P   2006 Aug 1, 6:33am  

I’m not saying that prejudice and bias don’t exist in the Bay Area, they do. Take a random city like Cupertino or Daly City or Fremont. You’ll see a good mix of races, religions, sexual orientation, beliefs, etc in most neighborhoods, and most people are pretty tolerant of other people, no matter who they voted for or what the color is of their skin.

Diversity does not make prejudice go away. Local friends do not like my pro-whaling stance.

75   Peter P   2006 Aug 1, 6:35am  

All seafood (abalone inclusive) in China are severely polluted if they are not imported. The best abalones in the world come from the peninsula area south of Adelaide, and Hokkaido.

I think they are probably imported as dried goods. Abalones from California down to Mexico are not bad either. :)

76   HARM   2006 Aug 1, 6:36am  

Are there rare instances where you find you CAN get home in under an hour? Where there IS a great sunset? Like just enough to keep you going?

@DinOR,

Sure there are "those moments" when I'm reminded of California's glorious past, the California of my early youth. Back when you could drive from Pasadena to Santa Monica in under 30 minutes on a Saturday morning and get a parking spot right next to the pier. Back when you could easily find a clean, untrashed spot to spread your towel without being surrounded by the local chapter of MS-13. Back when you could even go for a swim without worrying about the bacteria count, the medical/industrial waste and raw sewage in the water.

Unfortunately, such days have become exceedingly rare, and are growing more rare with each passing year. The California of my youth now exists only in my memory. Don't get me wrong --I don't hate the entire state or even the people (ok, I DO hate the smug, arrogant yuppie-Boomer types). I just hate what it's becoming and what much of it already has become.

77   StuckInBA   2006 Aug 1, 6:37am  

I know I am opening a can of worms, but let me give my perspective.

For a software techie from India (or other Asian countries) who is immigrating here in US, there isn't really a whole lot of choice. For example, I do not have friends/family anywhere else in the country. There are not that many hi-tech centers with plentiful jobs. And snow is no-no.

So, even if BA has its share of problems, that's all I got. I have been fortunate enough to travel to many countries and interact with many different peoples. And hence from my personal experiences, for BA is the easiest of the societies to get assimilated into. That's IMHO, YMMV.

I am not alone. Hence I put a lion's share of the reasons for RE bubble in BA on Indians and Asians. Again, IMHO, others will disagree.

I am going to change my handle to StuckInBA to reflect that (lack of) choice.

78   edvard   2006 Aug 1, 6:40am  

Guys,
Yes indeed the decision to move was/is extemely difficult for me. I know that for a long time I yammered on about how cool things are in Nashville-Austin-Anywhere- compared to the BA. But the simple fact is that where I will likely be is going to be very diffrent from the BA. There will probably be little to no Sushi. Not a huge selection of wine. Probably a sea of anglo-saxon christians. Wal-Marts will be the nearest thing to a hardware store. At the same time, they have their own charms that the BA lacks.

I will miss the BA a lot. But when I stopped and thought about it, it isn't the physical area that I will miss. Instead I'm almost irate at myself for having spent 8 years here. I believe that anyone can become attached to anywhere if they are there long enough. I recall NOT liking it here for almost a year. I'm attached here and feel like I invested too much of myself in it when all along I knew that I didn't want to waste decades of my life obtaining what most people everywhere else can procure very easily.

What I don't like is picking up my life and having to almost restart all over again. My priorities have changed from affordable living to finding a job and settling in somwhere. It's scary, but I'm sure I'll make it.

I'm also now a stranger to my own home state and the entire region in general. The region is now totally diffrent.So when I come back, I'll have to get familiar with it all over again. The south I knew as a kid doesn't exsist anymore. I've only been to Raliegh once yet heard some good things from friends that already made the move there. I have heard that Atlanta is taking off. Again- I wouldn't know.

But there is some aspect that is sort of exciting about making this change. As Americans, we have the unique ability to change our surroundings if they don't work for us anymore. I view California as a broken state and outdated laws that will haunt it for generations, if not eternallly if this chain of booms and busts continue. I want no part of that. I look forward to the coming months and hopefully by this time next year, I will happily be able to tell you all what my experiences are like so that perhaps if sme of you too have had these thoughts, you can see how someone like me fared.

79   ScottJ   2006 Aug 1, 6:40am  

Skibum said

Have you been to NYC lately? Cheap Asian food is now better there than in the BA, I think. Chinese food in Flushing, Korean near Madison Sq Gdn, and all kinds of other stuff.

Well, I like Sun Hong Kong on the border of Chinatown and Northbeach, Brother's KBQ on Geary and Saigon Chinese sea food (too bad its currently under construction from a fire) in Richmond right by I80. Also Go Go Cafe in the Sunset is good. Those are some pretty cheap asian food places that kick a$$. I was in NY a couple of years ago ~ not that two years ago is current ~ and I just didn't find the Asian cuisine all that great. It could be that I was taken around by an Italian local, not an Asian local. French, Italian and all the Euro flavors were far superior in NY. I haven't ever had roast duck with butter sauce as good as this place in Manhattan. I forgot the name though.

80   HARM   2006 Aug 1, 6:47am  

I’ve worked in different parts of the US where you can’t get good Chinese , Mexican, Thai or French within a 5 block radius. And some places don’t even know what good Asian food is. A broad mix of different people bring all the “intangibles” together in the BA. Plus I like to snowboard. Can you drive 3 hours to go snowboarding from Dallas, Orlando, New Orleans or Alabama? Nope, you gotta fly. The BA has a whole lot of everything.

Again, I think the "good international food" benefit is over-hyped and as better cuisine is spreading to other regions, will become even less of a factor in the years to come. 20 years ago you probably couldn't even get decent asian food in most Southern cities --no longer true today.

As far as snowboarding goes, it sounds great as a concept, but how many people actually do this on a regular basis? Can't speak about the BA, but I can tell you that any ski/snowborad areas that are within a 3 hour drive from L.A. are insanely overcrowded during ski season. Once you start having to drive 5+ hours to avoid the crowds, why not just get a cheapo ticket and fly?

81   ScottJ   2006 Aug 1, 6:49am  

@MA,

Understood, yes a lot of people do complain about the BA or California not having "real" seasons. The change of color can be very nice and the BA is basically the same shade all year round. I just can't deal with the temp range of certain areas.

82   skibum   2006 Aug 1, 6:50am  

There are 4 restaurants in NYC with 3 Michelin stars. It’ll be interesting to see how many the BA will get.

I bet ZERO.

Really? I don't see how Per Se got 3 stars and French Laundry will not.

83   Peter P   2006 Aug 1, 6:53am  

Really? I don’t see how Per Se got 3 stars and French Laundry will not.

This is why I do not care about Michelin stars. Restaurant ratings are overrated.

84   ScottJ   2006 Aug 1, 6:53am  

SHTF,

I can almost feel the pain coming from your words... moving is tough. But I think you'll do just fine. If you don't like it out there, you can come back and if you like it, that just means you made the right decision. More power to you!

85   HARM   2006 Aug 1, 6:53am  

Back OT...

Buyer's market: When buyers start demanding 1000-word essays/biographies from prospective sellers accompanied by 8x10 family photos before we'll even consider listening to their offering price. When the sale is contingent upon the sellers continuing to feed the squirrels after I buy the place. I also like (DinOR's?) idea of sellers having to personally perform lawn maintenance for 1-2 years after the sale.

86   HARM   2006 Aug 1, 6:59am  

Diversity has been redefined as “No White People” or “Majority XXXX Ethnic group”. Maybe it should be called “California Diversity” like “California King”.

:lol: "California diversity" to complement "California affordability" ($million condos financed with 110% LTV stated-income NAAVLP).

87   GallopingCheetah   2006 Aug 1, 7:00am  

Sigh ...... people feel defensive when Shanghai is overtaking Hongkong, Taipei and Singapore to become the premiere city in East Asia.

Shanghai has a pretty long (cultural and prosperous) history when compared with the other three.

The city is changing rapidly. Not necessarily to my taste. But over the long run, it'll settle down.

A lot of pompous people don't like Shanghai because they weren't treated like a king or queen. I notice that in Beijing's hotel the staff were very servile. No doubt, the descendants of the Chinese serving in the Manchurian capital must be the servile kind. In Shanghai, the hotel (and restaurant) staff were cordial and polite and very helpful. But not servile.

88   speedingpullet   2006 Aug 1, 7:03am  

Yeah, that's the thing I noticed the most after moving back to LA from London: people talk about 'diversity' in Los Angeles, but the only people I ever saw in West LA who were a different colour from me were mowing lawns or doing laundry.

From what I can gather there are lots of ethnically diverse areas, but you don't really get any intermingling of people.

When we were first looking for places to live, I'd mention places and people would say stuff like 'oh, you don't want to live there, nobody speaks english...
to which I'd think 'and?...'

Not blowng the trumpet for London (well, not much ;-) ) but when they say ethnic diversity, they mean ethnic diversity in that area, not a community of X living next to a community of Y next to a community of Z etc...

Maybe its an Angelino thing - I've noticed in the BA, especially San Francisco, that people from different countries/backgrounds live in a more 'diverse' way- ie on the same street as each other - than here.

89   ScottJ   2006 Aug 1, 7:04am  

Just to post something on topic

I think it will be a buyers market when a 3/2 can be bought on a median income with an income to debt ratio of

90   skibum   2006 Aug 1, 7:05am  

Scott J. and randomuser,

The weather and "diversity" are the usual stock answers (often given by realtors) for why the BA is so special. This summer and last winter put the weather thing into perspective - not so great, eh? The Mediterranian climate can be found in a lot of places, anyway, not just here: the Mediterranian (of course!), South Africa, Australia, and Chile are supposed to all have similar climates - coincides with good winemaking regions, too.

RE: "diversity," I agree with burbed "no white people" does not equal diversity. Cities in the BA, and pretty much most everywhere I've seen still remain very segregated. And yes, the couple of food places you mention are good (especially Brothers), but that doesn't justify housing prices here!

As far as snowboarding goes, it sounds great as a concept, but how many people actually do this on a regular basis? Can’t speak about the BA, but I can tell you that any ski/snowborad areas that are within a 3 hour drive from L.A. are insanely overcrowded during ski season. Once you start having to drive 5+ hours to avoid the crowds, why not just get a cheapo ticket and fly?

That would be me, and I know many people who go up to Tahoe more or less every weekend in the winter. I try my best to do that as time permits. That being said, winter sports are much more accessible in many other cities: Seattle-Cascades, Vancouver-Whistler, Denver-Loveland, Winter Park, or Summit Cty, Portland-Mt Hood, just to name a few. Don't even bring up East Coast skiing - it sucks big time. The skiing close to LA sucks as well - Mammoth is the only place worth going down there, and that's a hike.

91   StuckInBA   2006 Aug 1, 7:07am  

OO said :

Shanghai has NO culture, everything is about cheap, imitated version of the American culture, Shanghainese take pride in having lunches at KFC, McDonald’s and Pizza Hut, because they think it is high class.

No kidding, once a local girl told me pridefully, “you know, my family is quite well off, I am used to having meals at KFC, and I only eat Haagan Daaz icecream, Norwegian icecream is the best.” I almost couldn’t hold my laughter.

Oh ... for a moment I thought you were talking about Banglore / Mumbai (Bombay). ;-)

92   hugel   2006 Aug 1, 7:15am  

I will know when it's a buyer market when this blog turns into something like craigslist housing where many people post one line messages just to vent. And all of the names we see here now will be gone because they are busy shopping for houses rather than blogging.

93   GallopingCheetah   2006 Aug 1, 7:16am  

I like Scott's viewpoint. But since there's so much mobility in BA and there isn't a strong tradition in BA to absorb and indoctrinate the new comers, we are left with fads in BA.

The situation in LA might be very different.

94   GallopingCheetah   2006 Aug 1, 7:19am  

Peter P says:
Diversity does not make prejudice go away. Local friends do not like my pro-whaling stance.

Good one :)

95   Peter P   2006 Aug 1, 7:22am  

Good one

I see that you are also pro-whaling? :)

96   DinOR   2006 Aug 1, 7:22am  

SP,

Your "original" definitions are spot on! We need to remind ourselves of the basics more often.

97   requiem   2006 Aug 1, 7:22am  

OO: I'm picturing the "Taco Bell is fancy?!" scene from Demolition Man, so I must ask, are the KFCs in Shanghai like what I'd expect in the US, or are they some fancy $100/plate mutation?

On diversity: If I head back to the Central Valley, I see nothing but white people. I know that's really not the case, because there is some insane number of different languages spoken in the area (Assyrian, Hmong, Arabic, Farsi, Russian, etc.) and I've encountered some of the communities outside of day-to-day life. But, If I walk around, I see nothing but white. If I go back East or South, I see a mix of black and white. It's only in the BA that I can step outside and have a high probability of seeing something other than solid white/black.

'Course, I don't think of CA as wonderful, just the northern part of the BA. LA would be much improved by a meteor strike, and the rest of the interior seems to be a fairly homogeneous and insular people.

98   OO   2006 Aug 1, 7:23am  

Governor Conon,

The only place that I could land a woman any time was Shanghai. If you speak English fluently, you can literally sleep with any Shanghainese woman, you need to find a way to get away from them. If you are white, you are golden, there are endless choices of women there. Although many are attempting to sleep for passports, most are just happy enough to brag to their friends that they bagged a white guy. Being seen in public engaging in PDA with a white guy is considered a source of pride for local women.

This is nothing special about Shanghai, most colonies or ex-colonies behave the same way. In the earlier days of Hong Kong, women prefer British to Chinese, same thing for Singapore. Just that Shanghai is just beginning to relive its colonial days after China opened up, so it is still at the bottom of the curve climbing up to become a city with an identity. Currently, it has none.

99   GallopingCheetah   2006 Aug 1, 7:24am  

Peter,

I'm pro hunting. Don't know about whaling thing. Will support if whaling doesn't endanger the species. Never had whale meat. Does it taste good?

100   Peter P   2006 Aug 1, 7:28am  

Never had whale meat. Does it taste good?

It tastes horrible. I mean horrible.

But the if whaling is to be banned, finning of sharks will be next. Then wild sturgeons will be protected. Soon enough, vegetarianism will be forced upon us. It must stop.

I may support an international tax on whaling if it can slow down the depletion of whales.

101   DinOR   2006 Aug 1, 7:28am  

Anthony,

I do agree! Sure, my wife and I still shop our local Portland area market once in awhile but it's primariliy for "entertainment" purposes. Like; "can you beleive what these J.O's think they're going to get for that dump"?

What's equally astounding is that there appear to be a fair amount of "panic" sellers too! If I wasn't so damn stingy we'd already have a 4 bd. 2 1/2 ba. with a pool. Some of these people have of late (2006) learned there just might be a bubble and Portland is still reeling from the tech meltdown so some of us don't need to be told twice. For a goof, check out C/L in Portland and you'll see homes priced ALL OVER the board. Funny really.

102   HARM   2006 Aug 1, 7:30am  

Question for those considering leaving the BA:

If (big if, I know) you were able to get into a nice home in a nice neighborhood without being a slave to your mortgage, would you stay here? I’ve read a lot of griping about other negative aspects of the BA, but if housing prices “righted” themselves, would you still consider leaving, and why?

Can't speak to leaving the BA specifically (living in L.A.), but I'd still want to leave CA due to all the other serious long-term structural issues: overcrowding, perma-gridlock, crumbling infrastructure, pollution, unmanaged flood of illegal immigration, NIMBY/SMUG/fake"diversity"-driven politics, high tax (for what you get), crappy public schools, etc. Maybe the desire wouldn't be as extreme, but it would still be there.

California itself has created most of the pervasive problems it now faces (NIMBYism/SMUG/"diversity"-driven politics), while others (unchecked illegal immigration, wage erosion, overpopulation/urban ghetto-ization) are at least partly due to policies set at the federal level. I'll admit that some of this is due to the slow, inevitable process of globalization. But even so, the effects are only made worse by federal and local policies that accelerate this process far beyond the capacity for individual communities (and individuals) to cope.

If being a "real" Libertarian means I have to support race-to-the-bottom globalization where my standard of living drops to that of your average Bagladeshi, then please count me among those "capitalism-hating" protectionists. May I suggest an alternative: How about we start promoting a type of "globalization" that actually RAISES up the standard of living in other countries to match ours?

103   GallopingCheetah   2006 Aug 1, 7:31am  

OO,

You are projecting your fantasy and past wrongs done to your people onto others. It is not healthy.

I was in Shanghai last year, I didn't see anything like what you described. I had a reunion with my high-school classmates last year. I didn't detect any sentiments among my classmates that they wanted to suck up to foreigners. Most were happy with what they had accomplished so far. But then again, I went to the elite of the elite high schools.

You've been hanging out with the wrong people.

BTW, I don't appreciate that you attack women of any place.

You are a low-life, insecure, and self-hating scumbag.

104   ScottJ   2006 Aug 1, 7:46am  

Skibum,

Yes, SF proper has a lot Chinese people whereas Danville and Black Hawk are predominantly white. But there are a lot of mixed communities like Berkeley, Hercules, El Cerrito, Redwood City and Fremont. Yeah, Daly City has a lot of Philipinos, yeah Marin county is mostly white. Tell me of another metro area in the US that isn't like this where certain cities or certain suburbs have a heavier concentration of one ethnicity, race or socio-economic group? You can't really call one city diverse, but you can call the Bay Area diverse. Self-segregation seems instinctual for "happiness". It also makes things more interesting because different cities will have their own "feel". Champaign-Urbana isn't diverse and neither is South Central LA. But Chicago metro is a diverse area and LA metro is a diverse area. Diversity is just one of the things that I like about the BA.

The weather anomolies from this past year are just that, anomolies. California also had a drought in '77 which was pretty bad, but it wasn't normal. Anybody who lived in CA around that time remembers the drought. Chicago is always freezing in the winter and NY is always swealtering hot in the summer. Just because it can be hot in the BA doesn't mean that it's always hot.

Ok, my pro-BA stance makes me feel like a realt-whore pan-handling for a sale: "real estate never goes down, this place is different"

105   Michael Holliday   2006 Aug 1, 7:59am  

DinOR Says:

"...Just think how wonderful 2007 is going to be!"
_____

Oh, yeah!

Summer of Love 2007: Burn, baby burn...(disco inferno!).

106   skibum   2006 Aug 1, 8:01am  

Ok, my pro-BA stance makes me feel like a realt-whore pan-handling for a sale: “real estate never goes down, this place is different”

Exactly! All I'm saying is yes, the BA has great things about it, but they don't justify current housing prices. Another definition of a real buyers' market (in the BA): when people say they want to move here because of the cheap housing! (never in our lifetimes).

107   DinOR   2006 Aug 1, 8:03am  

Even if we were lucky enough to find "the pony" in this steaming pile of manure it may not be meaningful when surrounded by For Sale signs and REO's and ever softening prices. My big issue where obligating myself for any kind of a mortgage (let alone a HUGE one) would be concerned is that for every dollar I am OVERPAYING on a mortgage that's a dollar NOT going into my SEP/IRA! At this point that's more important to me than having a pool or a "peek a boo view".

108   GallopingCheetah   2006 Aug 1, 8:08am  

Folks. It's all about psychology. To most people, owning is more honorific than renting. If owning (sorry, borrowing to buy) entails enslavement for 20-30 years, it might not be worth it.

If one tells himself that he refuses to be a slave to (fill in the blanks), he can set himself free mentally and physically.

If his woman constantly nags him to make the sacrifice of his liberty in order to catch up with the Jones (fellow slaves), he will make the right decision to set her free and free himself.

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