patrick.net

egads101 says

2006.... such a nice time to buy a home in seattle! none better!!!

I was wrong, so sorry!

Bob, look at the graph, we sold before August 2007. In your cyber stalking you must be able to see that.

David Losh says

Bigsby says

And you should knock your gun theory on the head.

This is a tough one to figure out, then Bob follows that with a comment about my right to bear arms?

@Partick, very sophisticated trolling.

?

It's official, David Losh is a moron and anyone who didn't buy a house because of him is a nimrod.

David Losh says

None of the data, nor economic statistics look that way.

You mean, other than the house prices?

Call it Crazy says

It does??? Here is today's Case Shiller... Want to take a guess at the
direction of home prices??

Up. Anything above zero means rising prices.

tatupu70 says

You were wrong. Own it. Move on.

All you have to do is look at today's economic data to see how wrong all of you have been.

It's already unraveling.

Let me bring in this quote from an absolute Real Estate cheerleader:

"We've seen more volatility in real estate in the past five years than we have in the past 500," said Glenn Kelman, CEO of Redfin, an online real estate sales company."

That boy has venture capital at stake.

Real Estate has been a tradition safe haven investment, now it's just fodder for speculation. Big players have entered for those 6% returns, but they will be the ones moving on.

tatupu70 says

Up. Anything above zero means rising prices.

egads101 says

The housing oracle has already foretold that price gains shall now slow.

Just more nutty responses to clog the threads.

Is this how Darryl ended, I forget.

Call it Crazy says

It does??? Here is today's Case Shiller... Want to take a guess at the direction of home prices??

Huge down movement is already happening, we just have to wait for the data to get collected as we speak. Anyone thinking of selling but waiting is a fool. Now is a much better time than later.

David Losh says

All you have to do is look at today's economic data to see how wrong all of
you have been.

You're seriously losing it.

The bears didn't say economic indicators would be xyz in 2013, they said prices would fall.

And prices rose. Therefore the bears (and you) are wrong.

Call it Crazy says

tatupu70 says

Up. Anything above zero means rising prices.

Give it a few more months.... At that direction, it could be at zero soon.... Dropping from 1.73% down to 0.89% in two months ain't a positive direction....

The rate of increase has slowed yes. But like the oracle said, 11%/year growth is a FAR cray from falling.

Call it Crazy says

I know, you have a tough time following a trend line..... See if this helps
your comprehension..

I understand fine. Any time the bar is above zero means prices are rising.

Sure, prices aren't RISING as fast as they were in March, but they are still rising at a pretty healthy clip.

Call it Crazy says

tatupu70 says

Give it a few more months.... At that direction, it could be at zero soon.... Dropping from 1.73% down to 0.89% in two months ain't a positive direction....

The rate of increase has slowed yes. But like the oracle said, 11%/year growth is a FAR cray from falling.

I know, you have a tough time following a trend line..... See if this helps your comprehension..

*

What is your argument again?

Thanks Professor for getting the trolls out so we can see who they are, and how elaborate the ranting has become.

What a train wreck!

tatupu70 says

But like the oracle said

LOL, You guys must be losing it in this beginning bear market. What's next, the keymaster? ;)

mell says

LOL, You guys must be losing it in this beginning bear market. What's next,
the keymaster? ;)

This is like an alternate universe. 11%/year rise in prices is a bear market?

tatupu70 says

11%/year rise in prices is a bear market?

It's called the rusty nail.

Just because a rusty nail sells for more than it's value, doesn't change the value.

That's an extension of the golden rail road spike theory, that says not all gold rail road spikes are actually gold, some are solid gold, some are dipped in gold, and some are painted gold.

If they all sell for the same price it doesn't mean the have the same value.

You're flailing here, because Real Estate isn't something you understand.

Glenn Kelman at redfin figured that out long ago. He's been described as a snake oil sales person, and I agree.

Keep pushing the hype. I'm just glad you are all corralled here in one place.

David Losh says

You're flailing here, because Real Estate isn't something you understand.

I'm flailing? Really? You do live in an alternate universe.

David Losh says

That's an extension of the golden rail road spike theory, that says not all
gold rail road spikes are actually gold, some are solid gold, some are dipped in
gold, and some are painted gold.

If they all sell for the same price it doesn't mean the have the same
value.

That is a very poor analogy. Nobody is committing fraud on buyers.

OK, then, let's get to the crux of your argument. How do you determine "value" of housing now? What metrics are you using?

Call it Crazy says

It was 23% a few months before that in March....

And it was 12% a few months before that in January. My guess is it will go back to very small rises or flat.

tatupu70 says

mell says

LOL, You guys must be losing it in this beginning bear market. What's next,

the keymaster? ;)

This is like an alternate universe. 11%/year rise in prices is a bear market?

I said "beginning", but I was more referring to the "oracle" anyways. This is rich ;)

mell says

I said "beginning", but I was more referring to the "oracle" anyways. This is
rich ;)

Wouldn't even the "beginning" of a bear market require prices to, you know, actually be falling?

egads101 says

So, if you say prices will drop, and they drop.... that is real

but if they go up.... that is fantasy?

Hey, you can never be wrong then!!! Except that you are wrong!

Maybe a group picture?

If you could see today's data you would see they drop. Once this baby turns, it will turn fast, and I think it already is. Each day home owners are losing money at this point. Sucks to many.

egads101 says

the gain will be lower, but it will not be zero.

We absolutely agree. The gain will be negative and negative for a while, until the fed decides to steal from 2 generations forward. They already rapped the first.

tatupu70 says

mell says

I said "beginning", but I was more referring to the "oracle" anyways. This is

rich ;)

Wouldn't even the "beginning" of a bear market require prices to, you know, actually be falling?

Yes, and they are. Just wait until you are shocked by the sales that are occurring today in both the new and existing homes. Looking at June data and beating your chest really seems silly to me. We are almost in September and things are not as good as people believe. Sales are down, prices are down. You will see soon enough.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Yes, and they are. Just wait until you are shocked by the sales that are
occurring today in both the new and existing homes.

No offense, but you've been preparing me to be shocked for quite some time now. And your track record for delivering the shock is zero. I think I'll continue believing that the appreciation will slow this year, but there will be no reversal.

egads101 says

The oracle has the power of vision. You do not.

Sorry Oracle, in this case you are a fool and moron. The crash is happening right before our eyes. Next data sample will be horrific to the Oracle.

tatupu70 says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Yes, and they are. Just wait until you are shocked by the sales that are

occurring today in both the new and existing homes.

No offense, but you've been preparing me to be shocked for quite some time now. And your track record for delivering the shock is zero. I think I'll continue believing that the appreciation will slow this year, but there will be no reversal.

That is exactly why you and many will be shocked. To the point you will rush to the nearest agent and sell your cozy shack for 40 cents on the dollar.

Call it Crazy says

bob2356 says

Perhaps you could share your definition of everywhere with us?

I think his "everywhere" is a 100 mile radius of Concord....

round as a bubble... "he is in the bubble unable to see it while the rest of us
can clearly see it."

sbh says

You may eventually be right about a reversal

No might. This thing is going down faster than anyone can predict. Erasing all the recent gains will be the good case scenario. Good luck to all the ones holding the bag.

egads, why do you refer to yourself in the third person?

egads101 says

The oracle cares not if you understand.

Well, Turtledove, or "Her Imperial Highness" as she is referred to on her home planet, cares not if your readers are distracted from your message by your word choices.

egads101 says

so the oracle entered 3.1415926535897932384626433832795028841971693993751058...

Pi. Something a math teacher might think of. The plot thickens...

turtledove says

egads101 says

The oracle cares not if you understand.

Well, Turtledove, or "Her Imperial Highness" as she is referred to on her home planet, cares not if your readers are distracted from your message by your word choices.

egads101 says

so the oracle entered 3.1415926535897932384626433832795028841971693993751058...

Pi. Something a math teacher might think of. The plot thickens...

Bob has returned to offer David Losh politer pearls of wisdom (at least for now).

To answer the original question of this post: Is Roberto gone?
Why don't we ask the Oracle what the answer is.

I wonder what his oracular knowledge will deduce. What will it all add up to?

Too bad, dead site, eaten by trolls.

I have to admit, I like the Oracle better than Bob.

At least I won't have to hear about how great Phoenix is all the time. Or how much money Bob made (even though he didn't sell any homes recently), or how we are all nitwits because we didn't buy in Phoenix like he did, or how great his crapshack empire is.

Yeah, the Oracle's mystic pronunciations are definitely better than Bob's egotistical rants.

waiting_for_the_fall says

I have to admit, I like the Oracle better than Bob.

At least I won't have to hear about how great Phoenix is all the time. Or how much money Bob made (even though he didn't sell any homes recently), or how we are all nitwits because we didn't buy in Phoenix like he did, or how great his crapshack empire is.

Yeah, the Oracle's mystic pronunciations are definitely better than Bob's egotistical rants.

Her Imperial Highness decrees this to be a good point.

David Losh says

Too bad, dead site, eaten by trolls.

There is no good
And no bad

Except in perception
And real estate blogging

There is nothing that is dead
That is not also undead

Let the trolls feast
For tomorrow is

Another day
And as God is my

Witness, I'll never
Go hungry again.

Oh, bother, screw all this. Get me another bottle of cheap scotch.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

tatupu70 says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Yes, and they are. Just wait until you are shocked by the sales that are

occurring today in both the new and existing homes.

No offense, but you've been preparing me to be shocked for quite some time now. And your track record for delivering the shock is zero. I think I'll continue believing that the appreciation will slow this year, but there will be no reversal.

That is exactly why you and many will be shocked. To the point you will rush to the nearest agent and sell your cozy shack for 40 cents on the dollar.

Shocked you say? Horrific? Strong words...extremely strong words... the type of words I (and most rational people) only apply to extremely rare circumstances (like maybe 2-3 times in a lifetime). But I digress..

Seeing as you use such strong words, all with an air of prescience, almost cocksure arrogance, tells us you are "in the know" on what next months CS data will look like.

Care to put that into a numerical value so all of us can see whether your "shocked" and "horrific" words ring true?

I ask because it seems like many here on patnet are (for lack of a better word) drama queens. They seem to expect the 2006-2008 price declines (the last time the data truly was horrific) will resume in earnest - whereas the rest of us see a slight rise/flat/slight decline data point as yet another ho hum nothingburger we have seen (circa 2009-2012).

Is this what you are expecting?

Alternatively, the other possibility is that you will not give us any numerical value to judge your "shocked" and "horrific" statements against, and then when the next CS number comes out (no matter what it may be) you will triumphantly declare victory to no one in particular.

Is this what you are expecting to do?

CDon says

Shocked you say? Horrific? Strong words...extremely strong words... the type of words I (and most rational people) only apply to extremely rare circumstances (like maybe 2-3 times in a lifetime).

This is not even a 2-3 times in your life. This will be a 1!!! A horrific, shocking, beyond you wildest nightmare event. Like I said, a retrace of all the recent gains will be just the start. I predicted a war a long time ago that will kick this thing off like a wasp nest. Once we are all distract with yet another war, the value of your house will be the last thing on your mind.

Bigsby says

Bob has returned to offer David Losh politer pearls of wisdom (at least for now).

Anyone wants to bet on how long this polite version of Bob will last?

This is the dumbest fucking thread I have seen in my life and the person who started it is a complete idiot