patrick.net

THis just in . . .

"Refco Inc., reeling from the disclosure that its chief executive officer hid unpaid debts, blocked clients from withdrawing funds and said one of its units doesn't have enough liquidity to keep doing business. Refco is the biggest independent U.S. futures broker."

This is really really bad news. Bad bad omens, my friends.

Al - What you are saying has too many conditionals to be valuable.

Yes, you are correct, buy low, with no bidding competition, when interest rates are low.

Sure, we agree on that.

When the whole thing blows, the Remax people just get in the air ballon and leave OZ.

Unless the flying monkeys get to them first.

Ah yes, I fogot about the appraisers and mortgage brokers.

“Refco Inc., reeling from the disclosure that its chief executive officer hid unpaid debts, blocked clients from withdrawing funds and said one of its units doesn’t have enough liquidity to keep doing business. Refco is the biggest independent U.S. futures broker."

I used to have an account at Refco and I have to said that they are pretty good. I called in the morning to withdraw funds and the money is wired to my bank in the afternoon.

This is really a sad development.

Bush’s tax panel is close to recommending caps on deductions for home mortgages and employer provided health insurance.

I suspect that the caps on deductions will be implemented. Not that it is a popular measure... but it will be packaged and compromised into law.

The top end does not depend on deduction. The bottom end will not be affected or they will benefit in cause deduction is changed into tax credit. The Blue coasts will be toast.

Effects of deduction caps:

1. More psychological impact on the part of potential buyers
2. More financial pressure on marginal homedebtors
3. More incentive to use bigger downpayments
4. More incentive to use short-term mortgages (e.g. 5YR and 15YR)
5. Price decompression around 1M
6. Price compression arounf 300K

As a Realtor, an issue that always bugs me is kind of statistics that are published by the media. Usually when someone reports "house prices rose 17%", a more likely correct statement would be something like, 'the median price of homes sold this month is 17% higher'. This can mean that higher priced homes are selling rather than lower priced homes. It doesn't mean that individual homes are worth more, although there will probably be some correlation.

That being said, home prices in Half Moon Bay really have risen pretty astronomically and I see something going on in the market.

A quick search gave me some #'s. At the end of January 2005, Inventory for all San Mateo County was 530 homes listed and 294 sold in that month. At the end of September 2005, inventory was 1229 homes (+231%) and 507 were sold. On the Coast side, inventory has grown significantly in every month except January. In September, there were 45 sales and 69 homes listed in coastside communities from Pacifica to Pescadero.

I haven't applied any math, but I sense that our market peaked before April 15th, but a lot of sellers don't understand that and continued inflating their asking prices. For sellers who really want or need to sell, we're seeing significant price reductions, but the prices for comparable homes seem to be pretty much equal to what was happening in March and April.

A number I came up with some months ago was the disparity between what entry-level buyers pay per square foot and what luxury buyers pay. Essentially, a older 800SF shack on the coastside is worth about $650 /SF - Golf-course ocean view new homes are selling for about $375/SF.

I think we're pretty much seeing the limits of what people are willing to pay for marginal homes and I think folks in the million plus range are actually getting pretty good value.

I think we’re pretty much seeing the limits of what people are willing to pay for marginal homes and I think folks in the million plus range are actually getting pretty good value.

Quite true though.

What does anyonw know about foreclosure.com? Are listings accurate? Has anyone joined this website?

Thanks for all the awesome discussion. I feel so much better being a renter. Loved Patricks' comment that home owners are subsidizing my housing costs.

Dear SantaCruzan - you might want to post your question on the most recent thread. This thread hasn't been posted to in a week.

I checked out a few listings at foreclosure dot com when I was looking to buy. The properties were out of date. Also, when I contacted several of the contact people given on the website for a particular house, the people had no idea what I was talking about.

I think it's a good time to be a renter. Give it another year or two and, in my opinion, you'll know why the smart money isn't buying housing right now.

Thanks Escaped from DC. I will check the other thread. This is so fascinating to read. A friend keeps insisting the weather is good in the BA so of course people will buy. Seems too simple.