patrick.net

Worst in 50 years? I don't think so.Maybe in timbutu Oklahoma ..not in the Bay area. Quit whining all the time you guys and get to work. It is like you guys are trying so hard to WANT to have a terrible economy and market that you keep saying it OVER and OVER again trying to force it to be your way...then you can say see, see we were right! All markets go up and down, that is the nature of the economy we live in..duh?

You guys should see this as the Gretaest buying opportunity in Real Estae in 60 years! Wake up and get your head out of the sand. Buying is so much cheaper than renting now.

Moved this thread to Real Estate forum.

That article was written in Sept 2011.

No, it merely demonstrates that some people need to read more than the headline before posting. Then, they may actually notice that it's a year out of date.

Darrell In Phoenix says

It's still good news though.

Starve the beast.

What news would that be?

The national housing bubble is pretty much completely deflated as any cursory glance at inflation adjusted house prices shows. There are obviously still areas with inflated prices, but then there always are. How much they will decline if at all is the judgement call that people have to make. Where do you live by the way?

LIke Warren Buffet said...He likes to buy when there is Blood in the streets. ALso buy when no one else is buying...sell when everyone else is buying..Sounds like the current housinbg market. Time to buy guys?

mike2 says

You guys should see this as the Gretaest buying opportunity in Real Estae in 60 years!

LMFAO

Darrell In Phoenix says

The risk is massive and the losses are massive if you buy a house now.

AMEN!

mike2 says

LIke Warren Buffet said...He likes to buy when there is Blood in the streets. ALso buy when no one else is buying...sell when everyone else is buying..Sounds like the current housinbg market. Time to buy guys?

Warren Buffet's advice is to make him richer and you poorer.

Darrell In Phoenix says

Sorry my Phoenix Debtor but buying is 10% lower this year.

Doesn't it make more sense to use a graph for house sales rather than one showing rents in order to back up your claim?

I agree that using an old article to make a point isn't really proving much. Perfect case in point is when we started looking at buying a house in the Bay Area. All during last winter and even up until early Spring there was hardly activity at all. Houses were sitting around forever. Then by late spring is was suddenly absolutely nutty and its been that way ever since. At least here. Not sure about everywhere else. But in Sept 2011 sure- things were different here.

Bigsby says

No, it merely demonstrates that some people need to read more than the headline before posting. Then, they may actually notice that it's a year out of date.

The problem is still the same. 1 year did not fix it. Running some simple numbers it looks like more like 20 years of pain and suffering might calm the beast. Wait for it...

Darrell In Phoenix says

Bigsby says

Darrell In Phoenix says

Sorry my Phoenix Debtor but buying is 10% lower this year.

Doesn't it make more sense to use a graph for house sales rather than one showing rents in order to back up your claim?

That's all you have? You're running out of ducks and weaves.

And you're running out of lines.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

What Demand? Sales are horrible.

You must not have read the article. I'll post the first few sentences here to make it easy.

"The home-buying season was a bust.March through August are typically the peak buying months. But this time, Americans bought fewer new homes in that stretch than in any other six-month period since record-keeping began a half-century ago"

No Demand! Even at the post bubble prices, people still view things as overpriced. Hence no buyers at today's prices. Hence record low sales. I can break it down ever further if I lost you along the way.

The article is from 2011. Did YOU read the article?

robertoaribas says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

You must not have read the article.

says half a brain! the article is from 2011 dipstick!

days on market active listings phoenix metro:

Sept 2011 93.9

Aug 2012 68.9

median sales price aug 2012 147K

median sales price aug 2011 109K...

Yeah, looks real bad, if you look at the data upside down!

So, everything is fixed by a year. Wow, that was such a tough crisis. Lets see. Live like your house is an ATM machine for 2 decades and then wipe it all away in 1 year of doing absolutely nothing but printing money and waiting. Get a thought going in that head of yours. This train is not even close to slowing down. What you fixate on is a small pause. Wait for the main event, Wait for it...

Bigsby says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

What Demand? Sales are horrible.

You must not have read the article. I'll post the first few sentences here to make it easy.

"The home-buying season was a bust.March through August are typically the peak buying months. But this time, Americans bought fewer new homes in that stretch than in any other six-month period since record-keeping began a half-century ago"

No Demand! Even at the post bubble prices, people still view things as overpriced. Hence no buyers at today's prices. Hence record low sales. I can break it down ever further if I lost you along the way.

The article is from 2011. Did YOU read the article?

Wow, so 1 year fixed it all. I must have fell asleep. What a great job we did. Thanks everyone. Now I can back to investing in real estate. Incredible how easy that fix was.

robertoaribas says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

You must not have read the article.

says half a brain! the article is from 2011 dipstick!

days on market active listings phoenix metro:

Sept 2011 93.9

Aug 2012 68.9

median sales price aug 2012 147K

median sales price aug 2011 109K...

Yeah, looks real bad, if you look at the data upside down!

BTW, phoenix doesn't compare. When the average dwelling has a strong stench of dead carcass, broken windows, head imprint holes in the dry wall, and left over shringes and crack pips in the corners, I don't really care what some other fool is willing to pay for it.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Wow, so 1 year fixed it all. I must have fell asleep. What a great job we did. Thanks everyone. Now I can back to investing in real estate. Incredible how easy that fix was.

Ah, yes, because that's what I said. Perhaps it would be better to address what was actually written rather than simply referring to your own script.

robertoaribas says

In fact, I bid on one today, and it got 20 offers in 48 offers, my full price cash offer rejected... because there are no buyers...

Yes, that's exactly what he said. Because, if the same group of 20 stupid people are walking around all the open houses in phoenix, and making offers on the same houses, and there are only these 20 buyers in all of phoenix, that's not too many buyers for the metropolitan city of phoenix. Even someone who is as dumb as roberto should understand that.

dunnross says

Yes, that's exactly what he said. Because, if the same group of 20 stupid people are walking around all the open houses in phoenix, and making offers on the same houses, and there are only these 20 buyers in all of phoenix, that's not too many buyers for the metropolitan city of phoenix. Even someone who is as dumb as roberto should understand that.

Why isn't there a face palm smilie for this site?
He already stated recent sales. Clearly, there are one or two more than 20 people buying houses in that part of the world. Even you should be able to understand that.

old news = no news

robertoaribas says

In your above example, you postulate that "inventory is dropping, because there aren't enough buyers..." Might I suggest any economics textbook, chapter 1, to point out how stupid your idea is?

Yes, you are more than welcome to suggest, however you would be completely wrong professor. Wrong in misquoting any textbook worth something in economics, and wrong thinking you have the knowledge to be identifying such a textbook.

robertoaribas says

In your above example, you postulate that "inventory is dropping, because there aren't enough buyers..." Might I suggest any economics textbook, chapter 1, to point out how stupid your idea is?

Ok, fine. multiple offers on every darn home that hits the market at a reasonable price, because there are no buyers.... In fact, I bid on one today, and it got 20 offers in 48 offers, my full price cash offer rejected... because there are no buyers...

7500 sales in the past 30 days, and only 14,500 homes active on the mls, because there are no buyers... price per square foot increasing because there are no buyers.

Whatever, what's the point? is this merely an effort to prove day after day, that you really have no idea what you are talking about?

Sales are still at record low levels. A bump from the bottom is still a long way from normal.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Sales are still at record low levels. A bump from the bottom is still a long way from normal.

And a long way from 1975...

Bigsby says

dunnross says

Yes, that's exactly what he said. Because, if the same group of 20 stupid people are walking around all the open houses in phoenix, and making offers on the same houses, and there are only these 20 buyers in all of phoenix, that's not too many buyers for the metropolitan city of phoenix. Even someone who is as dumb as roberto should understand that.

Why isn't there a face palm smilie for this site?

He already stated recent sales. Clearly, there are one or two more than 20 people buying houses in that part of the world. Even you should be able to understand that.

Okay, I'll give you that. There are 22 buyers then. Still the same problem. The problem is not low inventory because of lack of sellers. It is low inventory because of lack of buyers willing to pay what would bring more sellers to the game. Remember, you are viewing the number of sellers as to how many people put their how up for sale. In the supply-demand economics everyone is a seller. Everyone is a buyers. Low sales means not enough buyers and sellers are meeting. Why? Because sellers think the prices are too low, and buyers think it is too high. I think Roberto already referenced the chapter in the economics 101 that you need to read. ;)

robertoaribas says

In fact, I bid on one today, and it got 20 offers in 48 offers, my full price cash offer rejected...

I bid on it also. My 3.5% cash offer was accepted! In the contract I also got the seller to sign up for be my man servant for the next 20 years. I don't understand why your all cash offer never made it. Maybe a personality issue.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Okay, I'll give you that. There are 22 buyers then. Still the same problem. The problem is not low inventory because of lack of sellers. It is low inventory because of lack of buyers willing to pay what would bring more sellers to the game. Remember, you are viewing the number of sellers as to how many people put their how up for sale. In the supply-demand economics everyone is a seller. Everyone is a buyers. Low sales means not enough buyers and sellers are meeting. Why? Because sellers think the prices are too low, and buyers think it is too high. I think Roberto already referenced the chapter in the economics 101 that you need to read.

There are plenty of reasons why inventory is low, not least that those underwater are sitting tight, but what exactly has that got to do with your argument that there are no buyers out there and those that are there aren't bidding? Presumably that's why Robert is saying there are multiple bids where he's from, and why others are reporting a similar situation in parts of the BA.
I have no problem if you argue that parts of the BA are overpriced because they look like they are, but you are arguing the toss with someone who is buying in Phoenix and who is telling you that there are buyers and that prices have risen quite a lot in his area in the last year. You generalize too much and you compound the issue by spouting crap about economics 101.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

robertoaribas says

In fact, I bid on one today, and it got 20 offers in 48 offers, my full price cash offer rejected...

I bid on it also. My 3.5% cash offer was accepted! In the contract I also got the seller to sign up for be my man servant for the next 20 years. I don't understand why your all cash offer never made it. Maybe a personality issue.

Really, what is your problem? You're bearish on housing, he's more bullish. Does that really require you to get your knickers in such a twist?

RentingForHalfTheCost says

It is low inventory because of lack of buyers willing to pay what would bring more sellers to the game.

What an eye opener. You caused me to have a revelation! Thank you.

"Was there ever a people whose leaders were as truly their enemies as this one?"

-Ernest Hemingway, For Whom the Bell Tolls

"Somehow it seemed as though the farm had grown richer without making the animals themselves any richer- except, of course, for the pigs and the dogs."

-George Orwell, The Animal Farm

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Lets see. Live like your house is an ATM machine for 2 decades and then wipe it all away in 1 year of doing absolutely nothing but printing money and waiting.

I don't know about Roberto, but some Realtors I know, and I know MANY, live in a world of NAR's making. They believe the hype and believe it serves them as well as their clients. They will even back up their beliefs with their own money. The one's that do eventually wind up falling off the same cliff their clients do. Unfortunately these are the honest ones. Not honest in terms of perceiving reality, but honest in that they truly believe what they're preeching. It's the minority of Realtors who know it's all just a sales pitch. In most sales businesses you're given a sales manual, you know it's a sales pitch for better or worse. In real estate it becomes a way of life. A self identity. You forget or never realize you're a salesperson delivering a sales pitch.

It's similar to the medical profession. Doctors don't realize they are delivering a sales pitch for the drug companies to their patients because it's in their best interest to push drugs and the drug companes are very savvy in their approach to doctors offering the best statistics and "scientific proof" money can buy.

Your beliefs are based on common sense. Roberto's are based on the numbers he's looking at. The problem with numbers is we tend to only look at the numbers that agree with our paradigm.

I think if deep down Roberto felt he could liquidate with a million dollars profit he would. He's stuck on a slow moving roller coaster that going a little too fast to jump off, yet slow enough not to frighten him.

Let's put it this way Roberto, if it were a stock and you could sell with a million dollars profit at the click of the mouse, knowing the jobs statistics and the artificially propped up nature of the RE market, you wouldn't grab that million bucks today?

ELC says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

It is low inventory because of lack of buyers willing to pay what would bring more sellers to the game.

What an eye opener. You caused me to have a revelation! Thank you.

Oh, my, so you actually weren't being sarcastic.

ELC says

I think if deep down Roberto felt he could liquidate with a million dollars profit he would. He's stuck on a slow moving roller coaster that going a little too fast to jump off, yet slow enough not to frighten him.

Let's put it this way Roberto, if it were a stock and you could sell with a million dollars profit at the click of the mouse, knowing the jobs statistics and the artificially propped up nature of the RE market, you wouldn't grab that million bucks today?

Are you being serious or is this a spoof? 'Deep in your heart you know you'd cash in if you could make a million dollar profit.' WTF.

robertoaribas says

So supply will stay low until prices rise more,

Or (cause there is always an 'or'), prices will fall and inventory will stay low or even decline. If buyers go the way of the dinosaur (which is happening before our eyes), then no one can or will want to sell.

Works both ways. In order for true (not this small bump) prices to rise, we need wages to rise. Don't see it, quite the opposite.

Aren't pay rises tracking above inflation?

robertoaribas says

I bought for (including rehab) 61K, 75K, and 85K. today, those 3 homes would go for 120K, 130K, 140k. However, why sell at those prices, when the rent alone on these three is giving me an over 8% return on the entire asset price, even with maintenance and vacancy estimated? where else will I get 8% on my money?

If I calculate my return on my PG stock from the original cost to me, then I am making over 140% return just in the dividend. However, I wouldn't do that type of calculation to justify not selling. I would use the value I get today in selling. That would only show me a 3.3% return.

As, to where you can get your 3-4% return today. There are a few hundred dividend public traded companies that fit the bill. Housing is not the only horse in the stable.

Bigsby says

Aren't pay rises tracking above inflation?

Unfortunately not.

http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/11/news/economy/wages-jobs/index.html?iid=HP_LN

I should add, that they are tracking close if you believe that real inflation is only 1-2%. I don't. The number is much higher.

http://www.wnd.com/2012/03/you-wont-believe-the-real-inflation-rate/

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42551209/Inflation_Actually_Near_10_Using_Older_Measure

All real estate markets are local. Roberto's experience might not match up to yours. Sounds like a lot of investor interest in Phoenix right now.
In my area supply of houses is extremely low. Nice stuff under 500k is gone in a couple days. Undesirable stuff sits until it reaches a low enough price. High end stuff is a tough sell right now and is actually bargain priced. Overpriced homes, even nice ones, sit until price drops. The buyers that remain are picky and price conscious, but they are willing to move extremely fast.