patrick.net

But then you'll have to take peoples money to just tell them they are making the biggest mistake of there lives. So once paid You'll just say "Run RUN RUN!"

or" this house is the biggest F'n money suck pit I've ever seen.
you know the truth."

or "you'll just be divorced anyways in 10 -15 years so way waste the f'n money now."

people really pay to be lied to these days or to be told what they want to hear IMHO.

so really you'll just be lying through your teeth also.But WTF this is America.

StoutFiles says

How again are you an expert? If your opinion is so valued when it comes to housing, I wonder why you aren't out there making a killing off the housing market with your expert knowledge of investment properties?

Because there isn't a killing to be made out there. Nobody is making a lot of money in real estate - selling, investing, whatever.

I wasn't suggesting that I had some magic plan you could subscribe to and make your millions flipping houses. You're right - if I did I wouldn't be here.

Katy Perry says

But then you'll have to take peoples money to just tell them they are making the biggest mistake of there lives.

Maybe. If they are. Wouldn't you be happy to have paid a few hundred bucks to avoid the biggest mistakes in your life?

Katy Perry says

people really pay to be lied to these days

You are right. They do. Sellers typically don't hire the listing agent who tells them the truth, they hire the agent who tells them what they want to hear. It's a disingenuous relationship from the get-go.

You want to blame the agent for over-promising, but part of the blame goes to the sellers for not seeing through it.

terriDeaner says

Uh... can you now see how this pseudo-legal authority is confusing many of the posters in this thread?

The threshold for needing an actual lawyer is hard to describe, but you know it when you see it.

Like porn.

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Tony Manero says

Or just go to an open house with some friends, grab the Realtor®, chain him to a truck and drag him to his death and sell the video to MTV!

Hate the game, not the playa. Most agents are clueless, but still decent people.

This service is completely reasonable.

I see endless clueless noobs posting on this forum 'should I buy this deal its a 3/2 blah blah blah'.

As you can see from this very thread - the 'free' advice on the internet is mostly useless to the clueless.

Getting an education in any subject matter is costly in time, money, heartache.

gregpfielding says

Forever is a long time. 2-3 more years (hopefully) before we get close to a bottom.

At least you admit that we are off from the bottom.

bubblesitter says

At least you admit that we are off from the bottom.

http://bayarearealestatetrends.com/2011/09/29/housing-head-and-shoulders-revisited/

gregpfielding says

You want to blame the agent for over-promising, but part of the blame goes to the sellers for not seeing through it.

That's what we do. If the house burns down, we sue the fire department. If the economy has been tanking, we impeach the president. A flat tire ? That used car salesman KNEW it was a bad tire.
Real Estate prices became detached from reality due to OUR OWN greed, and seeing as how the market is always right (at that particular moment), WE should assume responsibility for our own actions. But it is less painful to blame others.
On your prediction of two years +/- to hit bottom, Is there a basis or some contributing factors to anticipate the time to buy ?
Unlike the Stock market it seems much more difficult to convince home sellers of NEW \ LEANER market conditions.

TMAC54 says

Is there a basis or some contributing factors to anticipate the time to buy ?

Take a look at these charts: http://bayarearealestatetrends.com/2011/09/29/housing-head-and-shoulders-revisited/

Prices here in the Bay Area have already begun the next leg down. Buyers are drying up and listing prices are dropping.

As far as the time to buy... It'll be tough to pinpoint the exact bottom, but we won't be there until nearly all of the foreclosures - get worked through. If government gets out of the way, that could happen within a few years. If they insist on "helping" people keep their homes, then it could take another 5-6 years.

Check out http://bayarearealestatetrends.com/2011/09/02/5-ways-obama-can-fix-housing-next-week/

Remember, the market started to shift in the fall of 2005 - that's when the buyers first hesitated. We're already a full 6 years into this mess. 2-3 years is my minimum guess.

One thing is for sure: when prices do hit bottom, they aren't going to rocket back up again. I would rather buy 6-12 months after prices bottom than potential years before it does.

Greg,

as long as you are honest with the public about current real estate trends - your service could definitely be of value to the right person.

You seem to be of good character and if this is a way to diversify your business, go for it. You can always adjust the little things (pricing, services) as things progress.

May want to put together a business plan, or a list of topics/ideas - depending on what service people are interested in. Good luck !

Thank you to everyone here for your feedback and support. Hopefully it catches on.

As you guys come across people who could use some help, please send them my way!
http://bayarearealestatetrends.com/

Greg,
Do you know how to calculate IRR, NPV, Replacement Cost, Intrinsic Value, perform Feasibility Study, Market Analyses, understand Risk Premium, Structural Financing and Future Value?
If not,… you can be consultant for your mom and your friends only.

REpro says

Do you know how to calculate IRR, NPV, Replacement Cost, Intrinsic Value, perform Feasibility Study, Market Analyses, understand Risk Premium, Structural Financing and Future Value?

Golly gee... maybe I'll have to refer all of that hard stuff to you.

gregpfielding says

Buyers are drying up and listing prices are dropping.

+ the interested buyers are disappointed by loan denial from banks,that's why most offers accepted homes are right back on market.

gregpfielding says

they aren't going to rocket back up again

Right. Not until banks bring LIAR loans.

gregpfielding says

attorneys, therapists, accountants, doctors, healers, decorators, and other niche professionals.

If I outsourced my life to all these experts I'd be in a whole lotta mo' trouble by now.

Its a good idea how many hours would it take to consult me on how to sell my million dollar home without paying the 3% commission?

toothfairy says

Its a good idea how many hours would it take to consult me on how to sell my million dollar home without paying the 3% commission?

The problem is that while I could (and would) give you a discount, I couldn't simply be an hourly adviser in a transaction. The reason is Fiduciary Responsibility.

My job would be to do my best to protect your interests in every aspect of the deal. Not only does this equal quite a few hours, but I can't tell you up front exactly how many it would be.

In short, even if you only paid me for 3 hours, I would be at fault in any lawsuit - even if it was brought by the other party - if I didn't do a "complete" job.

I agree with everyone here that this is messed up. The industry needs a major overhaul.

But, if you are serious about selling, call me.

Greg, I think your service will be of value. I will strongly consider it and I've bookmarked your page.

The used car salesman after hours is a great analogy.

Besides, paying $150 to prevent someone from buying a $500,000 piece of shit seems like a good deal to me.

gregpfielding says

The problem is that while I could (and would) give you a discount, I couldn't simply be an hourly adviser in a transaction. The reason is Fiduciary Responsibility.

I am not sure how fiduciary responsibility would prevent you from taking an hourly wage instead of a commission.

gregpfielding says

My job would be to do my best to protect your interests in every aspect of the deal.

The commission system --for numerous reasons posted in this forum-- only incentivises a real estate agent to act against their clients best interest.

gregpfielding says

In short, even if you only paid me for 3 hours, I would be at fault in any lawsuit - even if it was brought by the other party - if I didn't do a "complete" job.

Do a complete job then. Charge a minimum rate to sell a house.

gregpfielding says

I agree with everyone here that this is messed up. The industry needs a major overhaul.

Yes, I think we all agree that this is true, but I don't know that the answer is to pay real estate agents $150/hour so they can advise us to give them a commission on buying or selling a house.

anonanon says

The used car salesman after hours is a great analogy.

It is a great analogy. I am sure that the slimy used car salesman would be happy to "consult" on car purchases for you in exchange for $150/hour. I am sure that his advise would be unbiased when he tells you that your best option is to come down to the lot and buy a car from him.

gregpfielding says

I'm one of the good ones - someone you wish your friends, neighbors, and family would listen to.

A word of advice. This makes you sound like Christine O'Donnell in her "I am not a witch" ad.

I am not saying that I think you are being dishonest, but just letting you know that nothing smacks of dishonesty more than someone saying, "Hey, you can trust me" or "I am not a crook" or "I am one of the good ones".

Instead just say what you think, post supporting links to your blog on topics. Let others come to the conclusion that you are "one of the good ones".

leoj707 says

This makes you sound like Christine O'Donnell in her "I am not a witch" ad.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0071853/quotes

Sir Bedevere: There are ways of telling whether she is a witch.
Peasant 1: Are there? Oh well, tell us.
Sir Bedevere: Tell me. What do you do with witches?
Peasant 1: Burn them.

Sir Bedevere: And what do you burn, apart from witches?
Peasant 1: More witches.
Peasant 2: Wood.
Sir Bedevere: Good. Now, why do witches burn?
Peasant 3: ...because they're made of... wood?

Sir Bedevere: Good. So how do you tell whether she is made of wood?
Peasant 1: Build a bridge out of her.
Sir Bedevere: But can you not also build bridges out of stone?
Peasant 1: Oh yeah.

Sir Bedevere: Does wood sink in water?
Peasant 1: No, no, it floats!... It floats! Throw her into the pond!
Sir Bedevere: No, no. What else floats in water?
King Arthur: A Duck.

Sir Bedevere: ...Exactly. So, logically...
Peasant 1: If she weighed the same as a duck... she's made of wood.
Sir Bedevere: And therefore...
Peasant 2: ...A witch!

B.A.C.A.H. says

Sir Bedevere: ...Exactly. So, logically...
Peasant 1: If she weighed the same as a duck... she's made of wood.
Sir Bedevere: And therefore...
Peasant 2: ...A witch!

Who are you who are so wise in the ways of science?

B.A.C.A.H. says

A word of advice. This makes you sound like Christine O'Donnell in her "I am not a witch" ad.

But I'm not a witch...

I agree it sounds silly. Real estate pros here are guilty until proven innocent, so that was my plea to hold off judgement.

robertoaribas says

egomania much?

Yes.

leoj707 says

Yes, I think we all agree that this is true, but I don't know that the answer is to pay real estate agents $150/hour so they can advise us to give them a commission on buying or selling a house.

Agreed. It's a problem within the whole business model.

If we could start over, agents should be paid hourly, just like an accountant or lawyer. The good ones charge more, the weak ones, less.

To answer your question about how many hours of actual work involved in selling a house. A typical sale might look like this:

3 hours initial setup and getting property on the market.

1-4 hours for the first week of follow-up with agents, potential broker’s tour, and marketing.

1 hour each additional week on the market doing market research, checking out new competition, following up on showings, and talking with agents who have interested buyers.

1-3 hours of contract negotiation time once we get an offer.

2-4 hours each week during escrow for inspections, additional disclosures, misc. paperwork, and continued negotiations.

2-4 hours for actual closing and then closing out the file.

The total average hours might be between 28-40 IF the home sells within the first month or so. And, obviously, difficult homes (or difficult clients) require more time and effort.

HOWEVER, I can't (yet) charge you hourly to sell your home. The reason is that the brokerage community would never allow me to do it. I literally couldn't hang my license anywhere with this plan.

Any ideas?

gregpfielding says

HOWEVER, I can't (yet) charge you hourly to sell your home. The reason is that the brokerage community would never allow me to do it. I literally couldn't hang my license anywhere with this plan.

Where in the licensing regs does it say you can't do it?

As far as I know, realtors don't have true fiduciary duties. However, lawyers and accountants do have true fiduciary duties, and they can still charge by the hour.

gregpfielding says

HOWEVER, I can't (yet) charge you hourly to sell your home. The reason is that the brokerage community would never allow me to do it. I literally couldn't hang my license anywhere with this plan.

I am just not familiar enough with what the brokerage community is doing to prevent this type of competitor to have any concrete ideas on the topic, but here are a couple of thoughts.

Aren't there brokers who offer a flat rate to list on the MLS? I am not sure how this then works with the commission. Could you not just do this? 40hrs @ $150/hr = $6,000.

Could you not have an arrangement where you track your hours then refund back to your client the amount that exceeds what was earned per the hourly rate?

corntrollio says

Where in the licensing regs does it say you can't do it?

As far as I know, realtors don't have true fiduciary duties. However, lawyers and accountants do have true fiduciary duties, and they can still charge by the hour.

I am sure greg knows better than I do on this topic, but I think it is more about black balling people who don't go with the program.
-Your bids get ignored
-They don't submit offers on your home listings
-etc.

corntrollio says

As far as I know, realtors don't have true fiduciary duties. However, lawyers and accountants do have true fiduciary duties, and they can still charge by the hour.

We absolutely have a fiduciary responsibility. And by giving any advice in a deal, we open ourselves up to lawsuits because lawyers sue everyone and they know we have E&O insurance.

leoj707 says

Could you not have an arrangement where you track your hours then refund back to your client the amount that exceeds what was earned per the hourly rate?

That would be the correct way to progress. The problem is that any of the big (or even medium) brokers would not allow me to do business this way. The other agents would revolt. And they would complain that it cheapens the brand.

I toyed with putting together a straight-hourly pay structure, where you pay me whether the home sells or not, or you buy a house or not. This really is the way it should be in my opinion. But the brokerage community won't allow it.

My consulting program isn't the perfect answer, but it can work in today's business environment. Baby steps.

corntrollio says

Where in the licensing regs does it say you can't do it?

It's not licensing regs. It's the business culture.

And my clients benefit from my association with a good brokerage, rather than being on my own.

gregpfielding says

We absolutely have a fiduciary responsibility. And by giving any advice in a deal, we open ourselves up to lawsuits because lawyers sue everyone and they know we have E&O insurance.

Not the same at all. Think dual agents, where your agent doesn't actually represent you. Realtors don't have true fiduciary duties, and very few things are actually actionable vs. lawyers and accountants.

gregpfielding says

It's not licensing regs. It's the business culture.

Okay, that's what I thought. The realtor industry is run like a cartel, and it's hard enough for someone like Redfin to break in. Of course, if someone were to take the risk and be successful with it, it could change the model.

corntrollio says

Think dual agents, where your agent doesn't actually represent you.

This is incorrect. In a dual agency, that agent represents both parties and has a responsibility to look after all of their interests.

gregpfielding says

In a dual agency, that agent represents both parties and has a responsibility to look after all of their interests.

That's the same as looking out for either nobody or the seller. The only incentive is to make sure the deal goes through.

Shit, even the bible can tell you this. Matthew 6:24. And you know something's up when I'm quoting the bible.

gregpfielding says

Agreed. It's a problem within the whole business model.

If we could start over, agents should be paid hourly, just like an accountant or lawyer. The good ones charge more, the weak ones, less.

To answer your question about how many hours of actual work involved in selling a house. A typical sale might look like this:

3 hours initial setup and getting property on the market.

1-4 hours for the first week of follow-up with agents, potential broker’s tour, and marketing.

1 hour each additional week on the market doing market research, checking out new competition, following up on showings, and talking with agents who have interested buyers.

1-3 hours of contract negotiation time once we get an offer.

2-4 hours each week during escrow for inspections, additional disclosures, misc. paperwork, and continued negotiations.

2-4 hours for actual closing and then closing out the file.

Haha. That would be a nightmare. If agents got money upfront, they'd drag their feet on the whole process. People would start avoiding agents altogether.

If we could start over people would use a computer to list their own houses with many more pictures, video!, rough sketched floor plans, the works. Without that 6% payment, prices would be lower, the realtors wouldn't screw the seller over by making deals with their friends, the banks wouldn't ship foreclosed homes to the realtors first...

The world would survive and prosper without sleazy middleman gumming up the works as they've been for so long. Some jobs will need to be done like a home inspection and someone for paperwork, but the current % is crazy and paying realtors by the hour would just make things worse.