patrick.net

It is great to see so many people thinking! That is the first and most important comment.

Is anyone parsing beyond materiality? Get rid of all your possessions and wander around the earth? That was fun at 21; but no more, right?

Next, Of course!
Rates low > asset valuations high > greed followed by fear

Yes, the media did not want to look as foolish as they did during the tech bubble.

Yes, supply and demand
[I was in Boston during that real estate market bust and bought in to (not "bought into") the panic.]

Yes, look how people are running all the numbers, (e.g. solve for $700K at 6% versus $600K at 8% in your depreciation future or maybe $800K at 5% in your appreciation future and look at the capital gain differentials in your analysis as well.

Then of course you get in to things like roommates(jesus), light, your identity, your wife's or girlfriend's identity - don't have a girlfriend or wife? Hmmm, what is the most important thing to a woman?? Daddy. Provider. Hello?

Okay, what's your angle?
I laughed at people for years for buying instead of renting - I didn't really laugh - I am just too wealth-oriented let's say and I had better opportunities for my money. Well, all that wealth building paid off and guess what. At some point you have enough money so that you can actually think like this:

"Do I take this money and try to earn X% or do I want to consume housing with it and if I do, what is worth buying?"

Hopefully, if we the market has in fact soften as all these people had predicted, you will be able to look around and find something truly worth buying with your 'housing consumption' money. This is different from your investment money. Sorry, you all know that.

Many towns and neighborhoods really have a just select number of streets that are really valuable to the residents of the town. These are the streets that once you start owning in the town, you wished you lived on. These are the streets with views that when you wake up in the morning or come home and see the city shimmering (or equivalent) you just feel really good. That's an understatement. People live on these blocks stay there 40 years. The houses were built before the '06 quake. They sit on bedrock baby. This is what people who really make money and create wealth trade up to. This is the end of saving and risk taking. This is the end of hurricanes and floods and fault lines and commutes and the carnival of some other highly trafficked streets. This is the end of moving out to the land of slow minds to save for a few years - it's hot AND cold out there and you are either going to meet a very simple person or (if you are taking a spouse out there) your kids are going to grow up slow. I am just exaggerating now, obviously. Even at retirement age you will want to be here. I see it now. I see old people coming back to the city every month to see their kids and grandkids, to get out of the cold or the heat, just to shop, go to a museum or park, wine country, whatever.

This is the end game for some of you. At the end of passing GO and saving and risk taking there is you and your identity and the people you surround yourself with. Or, you know there is the nomad, hippie, travel thing too, that sounds cool and tastes even better - but know one reading this site is really thinking about that. Most people reading this site seem to be looking for comfort from others - seeking some approval. I hope all these entries are still available in the ether 10 years from now. I will make a note to myself now and put it in a sealed envelope to remind myself to search for these keywords on Oct 24, 2015 (xyzhtc fear).

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