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Rents going up? Prices going down?


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2005 Oct 20, 4:02pm   25,698 views  93 comments

by tsusiat   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Is anyone aware of an inverse correlation between a housing bubble of massive proportions popping and subsequently rising rents?

My thinking goes something like this: after all the suckers who go bankrupt lose their houses and are back in the rental market, they will drive vacancy rates in typical rental properties lower (supply and demand).

*Or* do all those illegal in-law suites all over the place absorb a lot of those ex-property owners, and do all those empty houses now rented after foreclosure or whatever depress the market?

As house prices go down over several years (by not appreciating or actually coming down, whatever), and rent gets more expensive (lower vacancy rates), these same people will start to think about the money they are wasting renting and thinking about buying again, and the cycle begins anew.

My vote - I have a feeling rents will be going up as housing prices go down.

Any thoughts?

by tsusiat

#housing

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16   SQT15   2005 Oct 21, 3:20am  

Rent will not go down… it never does.

I have to disagree. Friends of our were living in SF, and their landlord dropped their rent without being asked to a few years back. Apparently everyone was buying homes and there were a lot fewer renters on the market. Rents all over town were going down and he didn't want to lose good tenants, so he lowered the rent.

I think the rental market is going to suffer from schizophrenia for awhile. I'm seeing tons of short term rentals out here because people aren't buying. The sellers are praying for a spring bounce in housing, so they're putting the homes up for rent short-term in hopes of holding out for higher prices. When that doesn't happen, people will either put the homes up for rent long-term or they're going to sell at a lower price and hope to minimize the damage. If we start seeing lots of foreclosures, that's most likely going to mean more renters entering the market and rents going up as home prices go down. I think rents and home values will meet somewhere in the middle.

17   KurtS   2005 Oct 21, 3:21am  

County assesors will need to hire more staff in the coming years!

18   SQT15   2005 Oct 21, 3:21am  

Surfer-X

Any sign of Mr. Fuchs?

19   surfer-x   2005 Oct 21, 3:30am  

SactoQT,

The Fuchs hasn't come back yet. It's been a week, and his record AWOL time is 2 weeks, that time he left at 18lbs, returned at 13lbs. This weekend I"m going house to house with flyers. I just don't know if cats actually get lost, if they do, what he'll likely do is go until he's good and hungry and then go ask someone for food, when he does this they'll call me. He's got a big butch studded dog collar, so it's unlikely its come off, plus he has tags and a microchip. Fucker. Man I miss that cat, he's just sooooooooooooo special. He's a Hemingway cat.

20   SQT15   2005 Oct 21, 3:30am  

Mr. Fuchs

Cat with attitude. (Would you expect anything else from a cat that belongs to Surfer-X?)

21   surfer-x   2005 Oct 21, 3:31am  

Mr. Fuches? Average alley cat looking for some action without humans?

Ahh, the Fuchs is any thing but average check surferx.blogspot.com he's likely on a brawl/prowl mission. Super special cat.

22   surfer-x   2005 Oct 21, 3:31am  

SactoQT, thank you for asking about Mr. Fuchs.

23   SQT15   2005 Oct 21, 3:35am  

SactoQT, thank you for asking about Mr. Fuchs.

It's all about the cat. I'd be nuts if mine went AWOL. I still think he'll show up looking like he's been on a 2 week bender. If he could talk, he'd just look at you and say "what?"

24   Peter P   2005 Oct 21, 3:37am  

I spoke to my property mgmt company earlier this week and one of my SFR in Vegas is vacant now. The husband of the renting couple had developed a gambling habit and needed to leave the state. Yeah, a lease is good for tenants and limits the landlord’s abilities to increase rent only.

If I go live in las Vegas I will go broke without gambling. The food is too good but too expensive.

25   Peter P   2005 Oct 21, 3:39am  

Yeah, a lease is good for tenants and limits the landlord’s abilities to increase rent only.

A contract applies only to those who have the capabilities to honor it.

26   surfer-x   2005 Oct 21, 3:43am  

he’d just look at you and say “what?”

LOL, that is so funny, that is exactly what he would do, saunter in and say "what"? Yeah I'm back, where's my fucking food?

27   SQT15   2005 Oct 21, 4:36am  

According to my property manager the limit on rate hikes is 10%, but the standard hike is more like 5%. They said the hikes are kept reasonable to keep tenants from moving out. Our last propety manager didn't hike our rate exorbitantly either. We want to stay here 2-3 years and hopefully buy into the maket on a downswing so a 5% rate hike would probably be ok. But after a few years it probably wouldn't be cost effective anymore. Our last rental raised rent every other year. That seems like a good strategy to me.

28   surfer-x   2005 Oct 21, 5:22am  

i’ll put $5 on him coming back befor the end of the weekend though

Me too, little fucker got the nuts removed a long while back, but is still very very male, loves to brawl. Last time he came back with a notched ear, must be a badge of honor in catdom. Actually looks good on him.

29   surfer-x   2005 Oct 21, 5:23am  

Although I am paranoid of someone taking him, as he's very very beautiful and friendly, plus he has giganitic paws due to 4 extra claws on each one.

30   surfer-x   2005 Oct 21, 5:43am  

i’de be willing to wager that rent in japan has gone down from the 1995 level to today also . (course i could be wrong there)

It is now cheaper in Tokyo than SF, by far (personally verified).

31   surfer-x   2005 Oct 21, 5:58am  

I urge you to purchase an implant chip for him

PK, already done after his last long night out a few years ago. I just with it was active rather than passive so I could track his little orange butt.

32   surfer-x   2005 Oct 21, 5:59am  

shit, hard to type with this hook, "wish it" not "with it".

Ever seen Superman and Clark Kent in the same room?

Ok, how about Jack and Bob Ross? Coincidence? I think not.

33   KurtS   2005 Oct 21, 6:06am  


Ok, how about Jack and Bob Ross? Coincidence? I think not.

I had to look up who "Bob Ross" is--omfg.

"The Joy of Paintingâ„¢"
http://tinyurl.com/7ccqt
kill me now...please.

34   surfer-x   2005 Oct 21, 6:11am  

Do they make active tracking collars similar to lojak

Catjack? Man, I wish they would.

35   surfer-x   2005 Oct 21, 6:13am  

I ran around calling for him and listening and then heard the plaintive meow. Have you taken some walks around?

I'm pretty shameless in this regard (and many others), I walk around the neighborhood loudly "fuchie, fuchie", and listen for the meowrrrr or the jingle. Fucker isn't hungry enough yet.

36   surfer-x   2005 Oct 21, 6:17am  

Does nobody else agree that lock-boxes on foreclosures would inconvenience, disrupt and reduce supply of rental properties?

Al Gore Lockbox?

37   SQT15   2005 Oct 21, 7:49am  

"catjack"

That term works in more way than one. If someone stole the cat you could say he was "catjacked." Though I hope that isn't the case.

I remember years ago a kitten showed up on my doorstep, a little guy. I asked around and a neighbor pointed me in the right direction. When I got to the owners house they were thrilled to see him since he'd been gone 2 weeks. A kitten! Turns out the little freeloader had been going door to door living on handouts. Maybe he was too young to find his way home.

38   SQT15   2005 Oct 21, 8:04am  

I hadn't thought about the condo factor when it comes to rent, but there has been an awful lot of condos/condo conversions built lately that are bound to turn into rentals.

Once this thing gets chugging, we're in for a ride.

39   Peter P   2005 Oct 21, 9:06am  

I think the tax form has a moderately high chance of becoming law. It benefits most Americans and it reduces tax code complexity. It will have massive political support.

Just a while ago people laughed when I suggested that Schwarzenegger would run and win. (Back then he was not sure about running.)

40   Peter P   2005 Oct 21, 9:13am  

What does good old Arnold think about this housing market?

He is supposed to fend for Californians, I guess. But he cannot run for the White House anyway. Also, he probably understands that the tax code needs to be simplified.

41   Peter P   2005 Oct 21, 9:32am  

Yeah, but what are his beliefs as far as the housing bubble?….Does he believe it’s going to collapse?

I do not know.

42   Peter P   2005 Oct 21, 9:33am  

But I knew people would vote for a brand-name instead of some nobody.

43   Peter P   2005 Oct 21, 9:44am  

While Bush’s pronouncement against illegals is unlikely to result in the border being militarized tomorrow, it has certainly fed anti-immigrant** sentiment.

Sentiments will be there but policies will be different. The Hispanics is now a formidable political force. Information flows more easily and quickly nowadays. Globalization = global labor arbitrage.

(Did you know that "hanging, drawing and quartering" was legal in England less than 200 years ago?)

44   KurtS   2005 Oct 21, 9:44am  

OT--Anyone have stats on inventory for San Mateo county?
Dqnews lists an approx -17% in home sales over last year, but no inventory stats.

My sister just bought a new house in that county, without selling the old one.
Well, I hope they sell soon!

45   Peter P   2005 Oct 21, 9:46am  

My sister just bought a new house in that county, without selling the old one.

Strong demand for housing indeed.

46   santacruzwatcher   2005 Oct 21, 9:46am  

Sorry, these might not be where they should go, but found some interesting links:
http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north366.html
http://realtytimes.com/rtcpages/20051021_siliconvalley.htm

47   Peter P   2005 Oct 21, 10:47am  

is this somehow related to the lost cat?

Huh?

48   KurtS   2005 Oct 21, 11:17am  

(Did you know that “hanging, drawing and quartering” was legal in England less than 200 years ago?)

Yet, to this day...English food still is.

49   Peter P   2005 Oct 21, 11:19am  

Yet, to this day…English food still is.

I love Yorkshire pudding though. Also, cream tea and finger sandwishes. Yum!

50   Peter P   2005 Oct 21, 11:21am  

BTW, Devonshire cream is truly amazing on scones. 60% milk fat though.

51   KurtS   2005 Oct 21, 11:26am  

I love Yorkshire pudding though. Also, cream tea and finger sandwishes. Yum!

And Brit-style Fish n' chips!

52   Peter P   2005 Oct 21, 11:32am  

And Brit-style Fish n’ chips!

Wrapped in newspaper! Malt vinegar is a must!

53   Peter P   2005 Oct 21, 11:32am  

What is a Bob Ross?

54   KurtS   2005 Oct 21, 11:43am  

I love knowing that some on this blog will never get that disgusting image to separate with my name for the rest of eternity.

Agreed--that could be freakish!

Time to clear the mind....visualize Rob Ross, trapped in a Francis Bacon painting...for all eternity.

55   surfer-x   2005 Oct 21, 12:51pm  

Jack, de-nile is not just a river egypt

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