patrick.net

Is anyone aware of an inverse correlation between a housing bubble of massive proportions popping and subsequent rising rents?

Did you mean conundrum? Also, demand increases when price increases...

My vote - I have a feeling rents will be going up as housing prices go down.

I think there will be a slight uptick in rent when prices retrench. There will not be dot-com-era double digit rent increases in the silly valley.

What about all those freed up dollars from those interest only mortgages gone bust, those suckers proved they could pay more. That's why they were homeowners, not renters. Will they pay more, now that greedy landlords know they can?

:>

Demand increases when price increases - CLASSIC!

I disagree. I think the market will be flooded with rentals. There will be lot’s of desparate owners competing for renters.

Especially if you count room rentals. :)

Marginal homedebtors will need to rent out some of their bedrooms.

iceman,

short term, you're probably right, but I'm talking about the real housing crash, where all those "homeowners" have gone bust - in the current market, renting a room may not cover the difference if mortgages jack up significantly - so what happens when those houses sell, and are bought by everyone at Patrick.net, buying nice cheaper houses they plan to live in as homes, not investments, and certainly with no plans to rent out any rooms. What happens to all the ex-owners, when they flood the rental markets?

Heck, you're probably right in the short term; medium-long term, I don't know.

I just remember rents being relatively higher when prices were quite a bit lower.

If only there were some way to track rental prices in the bay area market...

http://patrick.net/

Cheers,
prat

Iceman, when it's all said and done I've gotta believe yours is the correct call. I was talking with a realtor over in Bend, OR and he freely admitted that 98% of the 2nd homes in the "rental pool" require feeding. I'll take that to mean negative cash flow. He was quick to add that none of these speculators care because these holdings are appreciating at 2% a month. Really? Many times we will see homes that are listed by owner first then with a realtor and finally with a "For Rent" sign, (usually the generic type bought at the hardware store). We probably sold a little early and in the fall of 2003 there few rentals were available. We now live in a luxury condo for $850, water, sewer and garbadge included. When the couple below moved out to their newly built dream house the property mgr. advertised their unit for $900. It remains empty. My latin is weak at best but I know there is a phrase that translates, "Let the facts speak for themselves".

Rent will not go down… it never does.

The speed of rent increase will pretty much match the speed of mortage rate increase… but I guess everyone knows that

Really? And I thought supply of rentals was a key factor.
At least it's the case here, and despite the investors wanting to price for "positive cash flow", they have to reduce to be competitive.

Rent will not go down… it never does.

Now thats really odd, the last 3 places i've rented cost me less than the prior tenant. Hmm, I must have just have gotten really really lucky. I totally understand, housing and rent only go up. Nice to know that there are things that violate the 2nd law of thermodynamics. Hey could be worse, you could be in the desert with a horse with no name, cuz there aint no one there for to give you no pain.

Rent will not go down...it never does.

Its gone down for us here in Marin the last few years. I think it is just now back on the up tick, but not near where it was 4 years ago.

tsu,
It was demand...dot.bomb caused huge demand...everyone was coming, noone leaving. There were no vacancies.
If RE tumbles, more likely to be people leaving bay area, similar to after dot.bomb crash, due to RE & related industry job loss...unless "the next big thing" comes along at the same time.

Or is it impossible for anywhere in California to have a net population outflow?

Check out the stats for California and other metro areas.
It's rather interesting that many bay area towns have seen an 00-04 population decline. Given flat or negative growth, how does one account for "demand" for homes (and rentals) in those towns?

http://tinyurl.com/9vqgf

Short article:

http://tinyurl.com/7cta7

Astounding:
Costs in the San Jose area are down even more dramatically than that, with the average asking rent of $1,296 down 25.6 percent from the peak of $1,425 reported in 2002.

As I thought, lowering your assessed value in CA is no walk in the park. This is from the State website.

Decline in Value Appeals
If you believe the market value of your property has decreased and is no longer as high as its assessed value, you can file a “decline in value” appeal for the current year. Decline in value appeals must be filed during the regular assessment filing period for your county, as shown below.

• July 2 through September 15. This is the regular assessment filing period for all property in your county if the county assessor elects to mail assessment notices to all owners of real property by August 1.

• July 2 through November 30. This is the regular assessment filing period for your county if the county assessor does not elect to mail assessment notices to all owners of real property by August 1. Check with the clerk of your local board if you do not know the regular assessment filing period for your county. Every county is required to determine the regular assessment filing period by April 1 each year and publish the filing period in local newspapers. Your appeal must be based on the market value of your property as of January 1 of the year in which you are filing. For example, if you file your appeal in 2003, your appeal must be based on the market value of your property as of January 1, 2003.

Note: An application must be filed for each year you disagree with the assessor’s value, even if you have a decline in value appeal pending for a prior year.

You must pay your property taxes on time — even if you have filed an appeal.

If your appeal is successful, the new assessed value will be used to determine your property taxes for the year appealed. The new assessed value of your property, however, does not automatically become the value for the following year. The assessor is required to review your property’s value annually once a decline in value has been determined. He or she will compare your property’s market value with its base year value plus adjustments for inflation (“base year value” is defined on page 15). The assessor is required to assess your property at the lower of those two values.

Rent will not go down… it never does.

I have to disagree. Friends of our were living in SF, and their landlord dropped their rent without being asked to a few years back. Apparently everyone was buying homes and there were a lot fewer renters on the market. Rents all over town were going down and he didn't want to lose good tenants, so he lowered the rent.

I think the rental market is going to suffer from schizophrenia for awhile. I'm seeing tons of short term rentals out here because people aren't buying. The sellers are praying for a spring bounce in housing, so they're putting the homes up for rent short-term in hopes of holding out for higher prices. When that doesn't happen, people will either put the homes up for rent long-term or they're going to sell at a lower price and hope to minimize the damage. If we start seeing lots of foreclosures, that's most likely going to mean more renters entering the market and rents going up as home prices go down. I think rents and home values will meet somewhere in the middle.

County assesors will need to hire more staff in the coming years!

Surfer-X

Any sign of Mr. Fuchs?

SactoQT,

The Fuchs hasn't come back yet. It's been a week, and his record AWOL time is 2 weeks, that time he left at 18lbs, returned at 13lbs. This weekend I"m going house to house with flyers. I just don't know if cats actually get lost, if they do, what he'll likely do is go until he's good and hungry and then go ask someone for food, when he does this they'll call me. He's got a big butch studded dog collar, so it's unlikely its come off, plus he has tags and a microchip. Fucker. Man I miss that cat, he's just sooooooooooooo special. He's a Hemingway cat.

Mr. Fuchs

Cat with attitude. (Would you expect anything else from a cat that belongs to Surfer-X?)

Mr. Fuches? Average alley cat looking for some action without humans?

Ahh, the Fuchs is any thing but average check surferx.blogspot.com he's likely on a brawl/prowl mission. Super special cat.

SactoQT, thank you for asking about Mr. Fuchs.

SactoQT, thank you for asking about Mr. Fuchs.

It's all about the cat. I'd be nuts if mine went AWOL. I still think he'll show up looking like he's been on a 2 week bender. If he could talk, he'd just look at you and say "what?"

I spoke to my property mgmt company earlier this week and one of my SFR in Vegas is vacant now. The husband of the renting couple had developed a gambling habit and needed to leave the state. Yeah, a lease is good for tenants and limits the landlord’s abilities to increase rent only.

If I go live in las Vegas I will go broke without gambling. The food is too good but too expensive.

Yeah, a lease is good for tenants and limits the landlord’s abilities to increase rent only.

A contract applies only to those who have the capabilities to honor it.

he’d just look at you and say “what?”

LOL, that is so funny, that is exactly what he would do, saunter in and say "what"? Yeah I'm back, where's my fucking food?

According to my property manager the limit on rate hikes is 10%, but the standard hike is more like 5%. They said the hikes are kept reasonable to keep tenants from moving out. Our last propety manager didn't hike our rate exorbitantly either. We want to stay here 2-3 years and hopefully buy into the maket on a downswing so a 5% rate hike would probably be ok. But after a few years it probably wouldn't be cost effective anymore. Our last rental raised rent every other year. That seems like a good strategy to me.

i’ll put $5 on him coming back befor the end of the weekend though

Me too, little fucker got the nuts removed a long while back, but is still very very male, loves to brawl. Last time he came back with a notched ear, must be a badge of honor in catdom. Actually looks good on him.

Although I am paranoid of someone taking him, as he's very very beautiful and friendly, plus he has giganitic paws due to 4 extra claws on each one.

i’de be willing to wager that rent in japan has gone down from the 1995 level to today also . (course i could be wrong there)

It is now cheaper in Tokyo than SF, by far (personally verified).

I urge you to purchase an implant chip for him

PK, already done after his last long night out a few years ago. I just with it was active rather than passive so I could track his little orange butt.

shit, hard to type with this hook, "wish it" not "with it".

Ever seen Superman and Clark Kent in the same room?

Ok, how about Jack and Bob Ross? Coincidence? I think not.

Ok, how about Jack and Bob Ross? Coincidence? I think not.

I had to look up who "Bob Ross" is--omfg.

"The Joy of Paintingâ„¢"
http://tinyurl.com/7ccqt
kill me now...please.

Do they make active tracking collars similar to lojak

Catjack? Man, I wish they would.

I ran around calling for him and listening and then heard the plaintive meow. Have you taken some walks around?

I'm pretty shameless in this regard (and many others), I walk around the neighborhood loudly "fuchie, fuchie", and listen for the meowrrrr or the jingle. Fucker isn't hungry enough yet.

Does nobody else agree that lock-boxes on foreclosures would inconvenience, disrupt and reduce supply of rental properties?

Al Gore Lockbox?

"catjack"

That term works in more way than one. If someone stole the cat you could say he was "catjacked." Though I hope that isn't the case.

I remember years ago a kitten showed up on my doorstep, a little guy. I asked around and a neighbor pointed me in the right direction. When I got to the owners house they were thrilled to see him since he'd been gone 2 weeks. A kitten! Turns out the little freeloader had been going door to door living on handouts. Maybe he was too young to find his way home.

I hadn't thought about the condo factor when it comes to rent, but there has been an awful lot of condos/condo conversions built lately that are bound to turn into rentals.

Once this thing gets chugging, we're in for a ride.

I think the tax form has a moderately high chance of becoming law. It benefits most Americans and it reduces tax code complexity. It will have massive political support.

Just a while ago people laughed when I suggested that Schwarzenegger would run and win. (Back then he was not sure about running.)

What does good old Arnold think about this housing market?

He is supposed to fend for Californians, I guess. But he cannot run for the White House anyway. Also, he probably understands that the tax code needs to be simplified.