patrick.net

depends.
depends on location.
depends on what the economy does over the next six to twelve months.

Personally, I expect we'll bounce around the bottom for another two years in most major metropolitan areas.

But I reserve the right to be wrong. I don't have a crystal ball.

Has the job market bottomed? I'd watch that over the housing market, it isn't as transparent.

who cares if you pay cash.
debt is slavery.

StoutFiles says

Has the job market bottomed? I'd watch that over the housing market, it isn't as transparent.

I think the housing market has shown a total disconnect from the job market as of late. If the two were joined at the hip, we would be seeing prices falling month over month by significant numbers. Perhaps investors are putting a floor in the market since an increasing number of sales are now being done all cash.

HousingWatcher says

With several cities now starting to show positive year over year numbers or annual declines that are barely noticeable, is this the beginning of the bottom?

2 out of 20 cities have positive year over year gains. washington at 0.3% and detroit at 2.7%.

third best is denver at -1.6%.

18 out of 20 or 90% of the cities have year over year declines.

my conclusion: it's always a great time to buy!!!

Actually it is 5 cities if you take those that are positive or have less than a 2% annual decline.

Where things go from here depends on big-picture stuff.

Perry winning and the Republicans taking over the Senate would be . . . interesting.

I'd change planets, if I could, in that scenario.

Then again maybe all their talk is BS like Bush and they'll just inflate the absolute shit out of everything.

Either future is equally likely I think.

HousingWatcher says

StoutFiles says

Has the job market bottomed? I'd watch that over the housing market, it isn't as transparent.

I think the housing market has shown a total disconnect from the job market as of late. If the two were joined at the hip, we would be seeing prices falling month over month by significant numbers. Perhaps investors are putting a floor in the market since an increasing number of sales are now being done all cash.

They are joined at the hip, they just aren't simultaneous. Lost jobs doesn't mean home prices drop instantly because of refinancing, unemployment, banks being slow to foreclose, etc.

Yes, some areas with primo property will have their own bottoms where investors can't wait any longer, but no, until the job market gets fixed the housing market can't improve. At the very best it will stagnate for years which means there's no rush to buy.

I suspect that it has in Detroit and probably most of Michigan. Other places, not so much.

HousingWatcher says

Actually it is 5 cities if you take those that are positive or have less than a 2% annual decline.

why use 2%? why not use 10% decline as your criteria? then all 20 cities are positive! it's always a great time to buy!

for "real" prices to be flat, nominal prices have to appreciate at the rate of inflation.

in 2011, inflation is approaching 4%.

so on an inflation adjust basis, all 20 cities in the CS index have inflation-adjusted price declines. i don't know how anyone (except those in denial) could think that's positive.

HousingWatcher says

Has the Housing Market Bottomed?

No, too much artificial government support. Looks as stable as a deck of cards in the face of tornado.

Bottomed? Not yet,but the difference I see now is the attitude of sellers. They realize that they can't list the house for whatever the price they want,so that is the first step in the right direction to come out of this recession.

I doubt August numbers would indicate an absolute bottom. House buying is seasonal and usually drops in the winter.

It's possible August numbers could show a YOY bottom, but I don't know if I'm convinced yet. This much government stimulus and we still have somewhat anemic sales.

corntrollio says

This much government stimulus and we still have somewhat anemic sales.

Yeah,wait until republicans take over the Senate and pull the plug on all government stimulus. Not that I like Republicans or Democrats either.

"Yeah,wait until republicans take over the Senate and pull the plug on all government stimulus."

HA HA! That's a good one. There will most certainly be govertnment stimulus under Republcians.. stimulus directed towards Republica causes and Republican cronies.

HousingWatcher says

HA HA! That's a good one. There will most certainly be govertnment stimulus under Republcians.. stimulus directed towards Republica causes and Republican cronies.

Exactly. Everyone believes in more government spending on worthy things and less waste. It's just that their ideological preference determines what's worthy and what's waste.

I tend to think when the Republicans take control again next year they'll try to do a repeat of the 2001-2005 era of misdirection.

Cut taxes and let the mother of all debt bubbles come back as a grandmother or something to pay for it all.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TCMDO

looks like we're just resting now, waiting for another round of sweet, sweet debt.

This time they may or may not be smart enough not to knock over another Arab country the hard way.