0
0

Where to safely invest $3.5M?


               
2011 Dec 8, 10:03pm   20,302 views  51 comments

by Iron Ranger   follow (0)  

Well, I hit the jackpot. I had a stake in a startup that just sold. Amazing.

Now what?

I just moved to the Bay Area from the Midwest this year to take an awesome job at Apple. Sold my big home at a 33% loss and was happy to be free of that money pit. Living in a 2 bedroom apt with wife and 3 kids. It's pretty cramped. Kinda nice being debt free though.

Do I buy a home in the Bay Area now? Are there pockets of value? I think prices will slide, or crash with a global depression. If I buy, do I pay cash or get a loan and invest the money so I get the mortgage interest deduction?

Where to invest? CA tax free state bonds? That freaks me out.

It's surreal, but nice. I had some successes in my career, no big ones, lots of failed startups. A dot com startup that made investors some money, but not great.

#housing

Comments 1 - 27 of 51       Last »     Search these comments

1   langr   @   2011 Dec 8, 11:43pm  

My advice is to not take advice from this board. Get the pros involved- attorney, investment advisors, tax planners, etc. Good luck and good for you.

2   TMAC54   @   2011 Dec 9, 12:40am  

United Country Real Estate.com

Buy an almond orchard someplace w a jacuzzi.

3   blackhammer   @   2011 Dec 9, 12:42am  

Comment taken outside by gman. View

4   edvard2   @   2011 Dec 9, 1:16am  

I would echo reply No.1. You need to seek professional financial advice. But if you wish to read further, here is my opinionated advice- thus not to be considered "advice" per say.

It doesn't matter whether you have $10 or $10 million dollars. The game is still the same. The very very basic principle behind investing is how to invest in areas that have historically performed a certain way and can more likely give you a consistent return. In general, a broad investment in the stock market has returned around 7-8% per year over the long term. That doesn't like that much but when you consider the effects of compounding, it takes a surprisingly small amount of initial investment to get you to a million dollars in 30-40 years. The key is time. Real estate has not proven to be the best investment as it only tends to return an average of 3-4% per year- also over the long term.

Anyway, it sounds like you're in a situation where you can have some flexibility. If I were in a situation where I could just generically stuff 100-150k into general stocks you better bet I'd do it in a split-second. But ultimately you really need to seek some professional advice.

* Disclaimer: Not considered financial advice

5   Iron Ranger   @   2011 Dec 9, 1:24am  

blackhammer says

A conservative method I've started using is the Permanent Portfolio. There is a mutual fund (PRPFX) by that very same name but it is not quite the same allocation.

blackhammer: Interesting comment. Is the gold and silver in PRPFX physical or only ETF? I don't want paper commodities.

Another question I have is about investment firms. I like Fidelity, but they are private and it's hard to know what's up with them. E-Trade is a public company, but just about went under with bad mortgages.

6   SFace   @   2011 Dec 9, 1:26am  

Iron Ranger says

Living in a 2 bedroom apt with wife and 3 kids. It's pretty cramped.

Let's fix that situation first as it seems more urgent. It's a good chance to mingle and network with your new Apple colleagues and pick their brains about where they live and why. And on the side, tell us when Apple TV will roll out.

7   Patrick   @   2011 Dec 9, 1:29am  

Traditionally, US Treasuries are the end game, where security is everything and interest doesn't really matter. But lately, US Treasuries don't look like a 100% sure store of value anymore.

If you just want to keep the value and don't care about growing it, I'd say diversify the hell out of it:

* Treasuries
* CD's
* extremely boring and stable dividend-paying stocks like utilities
* a little gold and silver, though that could easily crash
* a house if it's not terribly overvalued compared to renting the same thing (see http://patrick.net/housing/calculator.php)
* rental property with positive cash flow and outsourced management

Mutual funds usually underperform the stock market because of fees and churn.

I would definitely not get a mortgage. You can be your own mortgage funder now, so why pay anyone else a profit you can keep yourself? Cash flow is not an issue for you.

You won't save any money with the mortgage interest deduction. You'd pay $1 interest to save 30 cents on taxes. Don't spend the $1 on interest in the first place and you're way ahead.

8   Iron Ranger   @   2011 Dec 9, 1:31am  

langr says

My advice is to not take advice from this board. Get the pros involved- attorney, investment advisors, tax planners, etc. Good luck and good for you.

Thanks, very good advice. I need to make sure these guys are fee based and don't have incentives that go against my needs.

9   Patrick   @   2011 Dec 9, 1:32am  

langr says

Get the pros involved- attorney, investment advisors, tax planners, etc.

Investment advisors are not necessarily a good idea. Their interests and your interests are different.

Investment advisors in particular take their 1% of your assets annually no matter how much they screw up. And they can take even more by getting kickbacks from putting your money into their friends' mutual funds, etc.

10   blackhammer   @   2011 Dec 9, 2:01am  

Iron Ranger says

blackhammer says

A conservative method I've started using is the Permanent Portfolio. There is a mutual fund (PRPFX) by that very same name but it is not quite the same allocation.

blackhammer: Interesting comment. Is the gold and silver in PRPFX physical or only ETF? I don't want paper commodities.

Another question I have is about investment firms. I like Fidelity, but they are private and it's hard to know what's up with them. E-Trade is a public company, but just about went under with bad mortgages.

I'm a Vanguard person myself, although the MF Global debacle is making me consider diversifying among different brokerages as well. Vanguard's interface is ugly and keeps me from overtrading.

PRPFX holds physical coins and bullion, but their prospectus states that they have the option use futures markets. I believe they even state they may issue dividends/gains in the form of coins/bullion as well. It has an expense ratio of 0.77% which I consider too high, but I've recommended it to family and friends who aren't the do-it-yourself types.

The newer ideal permanent portfolio is an equal allocation of 25% Stocks/30-yr Treasuries/Physical Gold/Cash - totally unbiased toward any economic condition or prediction. I beat the PRPFX expense ratio using VTI, TLT, GLD. (I know I know, it's not physical)

11   edvard2   @   2011 Dec 9, 2:10am  


Investment advisors are not necessarily a good idea. Their interests and your interests are different.

Investment advisors in particular take their 1% of your assets annually no matter how much they screw up. And they can take even more by getting kickback from putting your money into their friends' mutual funds, etc.

Financial advisers make money giving advice. That's like saying you shouldn't trust lawyers because they charge money to provide legal advice and services. How are financial advisers or any other finance professional different? There are good and bad ones- just like in any other profession. My mother in law and parents use advisers and have done quite well doing so. They have gotten some very good advice in the process. Remember- someone that gets paid to manage investments for others typically has it in their own interests to have those investments do well.

As far as companies like Fidelity and so on, well there's nothing wrong with Fidelity. I've used them for years. Them and a few others like Edward Jones and so on.


Mutual funds usually underperform the stock market because of fees and churn.

Depends. Most of what I've got invested is in mutual funds and all of the except one are performing at market average or higher. One is currently 13% YOY. Mutual funds can be as risky/conservative/diversified/specialized as any other form of investment. The fees I get charged are extremely minuscule. So its not really accurate to make a blanket statement that they "usually" underperform.

* Disclaimer: Not considered financial advice.

12   clambo   @   2011 Dec 9, 2:31am  

Talk to Vanguard or T.Rowe Price. If you open a money market account with some dough in it they'll make financial plans for you for free. The guys at Vanguard are as capable as anyone working anywhere in the business.
Money is invested for several goals of either 1. capital appreciation 2. income 3. capital preservation.
Unless you work again, you want to have some of your money provide 2. income. This means a bond fund. Dodge&Cox, T.Rowe Price, Vanguard have good plain vanilla bond funds of various kinds. I personally like Vanguard but all three companies are good.
The reason for some 1. capital appreciation (e.g. stocks) is as a way to beat inflation. Some good stock mutual funds are available at T.Rowe Price, Vanguard, Fidelity, etc.
Remember, the fee based planner is going to perform the same service for you as a planner at T.Rowe Price or Vanguard but for a lot more money.
An example of one fund that is conservative is at T.Rowe Price, called Capital Appreciation. It actually has bonds and stocks in it.
You can read in the prospectus or even the summary of the fund what it is trying to do. This is illuminating.
E.g. A stock fund that is a growth focus: "The objective of the fund is capital appreciation"
E.G. A Hybrid, or balanced fund: "The objective of the fund is capital appreciation, capital preservation, and income."
A bond fund I own at Vanguard is Total Bond Market Index. This is going to provide you with a yield of only 2.5% I think.
Another I own is Vanguard High Yield Municipal Bond. The yield is a little higher.
If I were in your shoes I would set aside at least 33% into something that can appreciate some capital, e.g. a stock mutual fund or a hybrid/balanced mutual fund.
Look at a prospectus for T.Rowe Price Capital Appreciation. Look at Fidelity Contrafund, then read one for Vanguard Dividend Growth fund.
Your enemy is inflation. Sitting on cash is not such a great strategy.

13   clambo   @   2011 Dec 9, 2:43am  

By all means avoid those who want to charge you a 1% "wrap" fee to "manage" things for you. This is an absurd fee if you consider what is done to earn it.
My father is an MD, and he inherited a bunch of bank stock, Wachovia.
He asked me questions but kept to himself what he had/makes, etc. I said "call up Vanguard.They do financial planning for a small fee ($1000?) or it's FREE if you have a money market account with them with $100K in it."
My father went to some jerk at Ameriprise financial planners.
The "rule of thumb" is not to have a lot of your financial net worth in ONE stock. Vanguard, Price, or I would have told my father "sell Wachovia and buy a mutual fund." This is the correct answer.
BUT, those planners will say to you what YOU want to hear because the correct answer to them is the one that makes you like them. They want you to like them and put all your money in their hands so they get that 1% of your financial net worth paying them forever.
What happened? My father said he "lost" $600K.
Of course he never blamed the Ameriprise person who was an idiot. He blamed it on "the market".
I briefly worked in this business, but it was a mistake for me to try to fit into the whole salesman nonsense. When I called Vanguard with a very complex question, I was amazed at the abilities of the people I spoke with.

14   EBGuy   @   2011 Dec 9, 3:00am  

Here's The best investment advice you'll never get. It's an index fund polemic that was written before the crash so YMMV.

15   clambo   @   2011 Dec 9, 3:04am  

Vanguard offers various types and levels of service at very low cost. You can have a financial plan, or ongoing wealth management, etc.
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/whatweoffer/advice/overview?Link=facet

I don't work there but they are an awesome company.

16   kt1652   @   2011 Dec 9, 3:13am  

IR, that is a good problem to have.
Consider only ~1/10 SV startups hit the jackpot, the rest burn out. To facilitate, look at the simple chart I drew.

Where are you on this?
My humble opinion -
1) Guns and ammo, potatoes
2) Las Vegas or ultra short etf
3) vwelx
4) index funds and go enjoy life
5) diversified or find good FA (Is 4%/yr good enough?)

Mostly joking.

17   MisdemeanorRebel   @   2011 Dec 9, 6:48am  

clambo says

My father went to some jerk at Ameriprise financial planners.

Oh boy. Sorry to hear that Clambo. Did they try to sell him a VUL policy?

EBGuy says

Here's The best investment advice you'll never get. It's an index fund polemic that was written before the crash so YMMV.

Great Article. I don't know why people still buy mutual funds instead of ETFs, particularly if they just want to track an Index.

18   uomo_senza_nome   @   2011 Dec 9, 8:24am  

edvard2 says

In general, a broad investment in the stock market has returned around 7-8% per year over the long term. That doesn't like that much but when you consider the effects of compounding, it takes a surprisingly small amount of initial investment to get you to a million dollars in 30-40 years. The key is time.

edvard, is it 7-8% real return or just nominal return?

I know you are optimistic in general about the stock market.

I suggest you read this:
http://www.thetrader.se/uploads/2011/04/artemis-volreport.pdf

It is rather quite clear that we're in a decade (or even two) of deleveraging, which means that conventional wisdom doesn't apply. Return of capital is more important that return on capital.

19   clambo   @   2011 Dec 9, 9:45am  

The deleveraging is happening in the countries that have slow GDP growth. In the other countries the consumers spend and have usually no debt.

20   uomo_senza_nome   @   2011 Dec 9, 10:57am  

clambo says

The deleveraging is happening in the countries that have slow GDP growth.

First off - GDP as a statistic itself is useless.

Here's why: http://financeandeconomics.org/Articles%20archive/2011.09.02%20Why%20GDP%20is%20nonsense.pdf

Second of all, US and Europe combined is a very significant contributor to the consumer market and both these continents have to deleverage. Whether they do this with more money printing or through austerity is the question. Europe will probably do both, US will go the printing way. Which means that nominal dollar measures are not meaningful comparisons.

clambo says

In the other countries the consumers spend and have usually no debt.

There are housing bubbles in other countries too. Australia is in a massive housing bubble, Canada is in one. China real estate prices are falling. All of this points to further deleveraging. China's massive capital misallocation in infrastructure investment cannot sustain forever. You only have to pull their credit growth chart and see the problem clearly.

I know all of this sounds bearish, but that's exactly what it is.

You can say that boring companies like Pepsi, P&G will still continue to exist. This is probably true, but nevertheless whether their stocks can keep up with all this deleveraging is questionable. As I said, return of capital is more important than return on capital.

21   mdovell   @   2011 Dec 9, 12:25pm  

yeah that amount is way too much to really give advice on a message board.

I guess here's some do's and don'ts

Don't get into art - it is easy for some to tell if gold is a fake but for paintings who the heck knows

Don't get into anything collectible. Collections drop in price. Baseball cards and comics don't yield the same they did decades ago. I'd argue the same with antiques.

Do get into something liquid and diversify. Putting 3.5 million into something you cannot sell in a given period of time isn't a good idea.

Do you get a discount on shares of apple being an employee? I'm not advising all 3.5 million go into it...it is near a all time high as well.

22   joshuatrio   @   2011 Dec 9, 10:42pm  

Buy a decent place in the states, some gold and keep some cash.

+

Buy a decent place in another country, with some gold and the other currency.

23   Hysteresis   @   2011 Dec 9, 11:16pm  

put it somewhere as secure as possible. spread it out over 14 fdic insured bank accounts(fdic insures accounts up to $250k @ $3.5M = 14 accounts). not sure if these accounts can be all at one bank or have to be spread out over 14 banks.

don't touch it for a year. spend this year to plan what you're going to do. most people do stupid things with a jackpot. don't be stupid.

majority of financial advisors give not-so-great advice but the good ones are worth their weight in gold. if it were me, i would spend most of my time interviewing and rejecting financial advisors until i found one that suited my personality. i might spend the majority of the year doing this.

search google they have lots of ideas on how to manage your new wealth.

24   sales   @   2011 Dec 10, 1:05am  

3.5 after federal taxes- that only leaves you 1.8
not even enough to last if you wanted to retire

25   Tude   @   2011 Dec 10, 11:26am  

You guys are all so boring!

Geeze, just put the money in some fdic accounts and travel while you can! No rush to buy a house or anything else for that matter. See the world and expose your children to the world while cheap energy still exists and the world is still a relatively safe place to travel around.

Then I'd find a nice town outside the immediate Bay Area, buy a nice place for relatively cheap where you can raise your children away from all the horrible people and crazy tiger moms and f'ed up kids that inhabit this area. Start a nice small company for yourself, figure ut what you and your wife love to do and do that for extra income.

Figure out how to enjoy LIFE!

26   FortWayne   @   2011 Dec 10, 2:28pm  

The only safe investment you can ever have is US government bonds. It's safest.

You made over 3 million though by taking chances in life, why not continue on the same path? Take some time off to enjoy it and go back into the game of start-ups and venture capitalism? Doesn't seem like quitting is the right thing to do when ahead.

27   nope   @   2011 Dec 10, 4:14pm  

If you have $3.5m, why would you stay in the bay area? The only reason to go there is to get rich. It's a shit hole as far as actually living goes.

Buy a nice house further down the coast where people are sane and prices are more reasonable.

Comments 1 - 27 of 51       Last »     Search these comments

Please register to comment:

api   best comments   contact   latest images   memes   one year ago   users   suggestions   gaiste