Time to revist iTulip.com 2005 HB predictions.(15-20 years to bottom!)
invite response
2012 Jan 3, 4:06am 3,056 views 1 comment
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bmwman91
2012 Jan 3, 5:30am
I think that between now & 2025, we will have far more serious economic demons surfacing that will cause some serious deterioration of this nation & government functionality. We continue to borrow money that we cannot ever hope to pay back (nor are we even trying), and the day of reckoning WILL come at some point. When that happens, extraneous stuff like houses & most of the consumer goods that fuel our economy will lose all value.
Now, house prices will likely continue to fall for the time being. Falling house prices are an effect of the nation's economic fabric being rotten and being based on mindless, cancerous consumer debt. Now that consumer debt sources are drying up, and people are reconsidering taking it on (to a limited extent), house prices will keep declining slowly as they move in the direction of what the weakened consumer can afford. As far as I can tell, the American consumer will continue to weaken.
http://www.itulip.com/housingbubblecorrection.htm
They called the top in 2005 (which is a year earlier than CA top of 2006, other areas like FL probably peaked in 05).
They also predicted a return to mean price in 15 to 20 years!
So we are now 7 years into this correction counting from Jan 2005 article! With no bottom in sight. Breathtaking fall really.
I 'saw the bubble' thanks to the bubble blogs like this one - but I never imagined virtually unlimited gov bailouts, freebies, 2 years average foreclosure timelines, or the inespabable horror of Perpetual ZIRP from which no country has ever escaped -japan- (rates are always supposed to be 'going up next year' to trick the sheep to refi...but always opposite happens! wtf!?)
So after 7 years of 'prices down every year' in a YOY comparison, it looks like the 15-20 year correction call might be correct!
Are we still on track to bottom out in 2020-2025? What do you guys think? Its impossible to predict what the feds will do and that is the whole key to everything now, stocks, investment, everything is centrally planned and can have a major setback caused by fairly minor government decisions on down payment%, or loan cap rate or MI deductions. The whole thing is STILL a house of cards constantly under construction/reconstruction.
It seems to be the case that 'rural/flyover' is at or close enough to bottom RIGHT NOW.
It seems to be the case that coastal/premium is still crashing due to thats where the only jobs are/its desirable and so crash is slower.
We can look forward to the government bubble to crash and create a disaster for everyone when the USA cannot deficit spend in a massive way any more AND we are still stuck with the massive federal debt.(feds spend double what they take in, do not try this at home! lol).
I am predicting 7 more years of pain for housing in coastal/premium areas.(BUT rural/flyover is already at/close enough to bottom)
Enjoy renting folks, I have made peace with it! It ain't that bad. I sold in 06 and been renting ever since.
#housing