0
0

Rent or Buy...simple?


 invite response                
2012 Feb 8, 1:14pm   9,644 views  23 comments

by virginwhodoesntwanttobesacrificed   ➕follow (1)   💰tip   ignore  

I am a noob to real estate. I agree with the skeptics, don't trust realtors and I am not really optimistic...read below...should I be way more negative on buying?

I made a smart decision when I didn't get pushed into buying by my friends a few years back. Now my apartment rent is being jacked up 150 (2nd year in a row)...I live in Chicago River North aka downtown and will have to pay 1650 +225 parking + cable + elec + renter insurance. I could move but I am finding that stock is tight and rates are high. I know I will be in Chicago until June 2014 after that I will probably move. I just don't like the idea of sinking 40k+ into rent over the next 2 years.

I used a few calculators
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/business/buy-rent-calculator.html

I'm think about buying a 200K place... but everything is so tenuous and contingent in the market and little changes dramatically change the calculation. My personal feeling is that housing prices will stay flat in the near term 3-5 years. I think the people who are unemployed are minimum wage and I don't see those jobs coming back...and in that sense the 8% unemployment is mostly on the back of the lower middle class/poor. The people I see who are in downtown chicago seem to be doing ok...

I don't know much about real estate but I have a business background...I am now in healthcare.

Any thoughts on this Chicago centric decision. And one more thing I'm not exactly handy and a little worried about renting the place out after I leave...how much does it cost to hire a company that would do that for you...assuming that I have to leave chicago and I can't sell the place.

thanks

#housing

Comments 1 - 23 of 23        Search these comments

1   woppa   2012 Feb 8, 1:25pm  

Property management fees are usually around 6-10% of rent, you should be able to get them down to the lower end of that in this market.

If I were you I would talk to the landlord and explain to him that you feel this raise is unjustly high, but first look for a new apartment and armed with that information you can threaten to leave if he doesnt at least raise it less than 150$. Renting probably is better if you don't plan on living there more than a couple years. But 40 grand on rent in 2 years...ouch.

2   bighorse   2012 Feb 8, 1:52pm  

Just find a cheaper rental. I don't see any reason into buying a property knowing you will not be living there in 2 years. In 2 years, most of your mortgage payments would have contributed to interest, and not principle. It really is the same as sinking money into rent.

3   Â¥   2012 Feb 8, 1:53pm  

Transaction cost is $12,000 or so but at 3.75% interest rates a FHA loan would only have a cost-of-ownership of $1000/mo or so.

LLs know they have you by the balls -- $2000/mo you're paying now is a $1000/mo premium over buying

Over two years renting would be $24,000 extra expense, or $12,000 counting the transaction costs of buying & selling.

Tough call I guess. I don't know what the market's going to do in the next 2 years. If you've got friends or friends of friends who might want to rent from you maybe you could keep the place and just rent it out for $1000 or so, but that comes with its own hassles.

Including amortization, the monthly nut would be $1300, which sounds like a competitive rent for your segment, so if you can find good renters a purchase might not be a bad thing to get stuck with.

4   Â¥   2012 Feb 8, 1:55pm  

bighorse says

In 2 years, most of your mortgage payments would have contributed to interest, and not principle. It really is the same as sinking money into rent.

Thing is, the monthly interest on $200,000 @ 3.75% is $625, and that doesn't count the MID. Nice rent if you can get it!

5   Â¥   2012 Feb 8, 1:57pm  

robertoaribas says

5. closing costs on purchase
6. closing costs on sale.

wat? How does one get stuck on both ends of the these transactions.

It's of course debatable who pays what, but ceteris paribus this can surely be assigned one way or the other.

6   Buster   2012 Feb 8, 2:22pm  

40K in rent over 2 years is IMHO, very reasonable, especially if living in a central Chicago neighborhood and have a nice place. If you are bolting out of the city in two years, I would stay a renter. Sort of a no-brainer situation here. The only way I would buy and sell in 2 year window is if the realestate market was zooming upwards in prices, which it is not, and is not forecast to for quite some time.

7   Â¥   2012 Feb 8, 2:53pm  

Buster says

Sort of a no-brainer situation here.

Oops, I forget that with such a short term loan a 5/1 ARM is the way to go.

Google isn't giving out mtg quotes any more but I think 2.5% is close enough.

With 20% down PITI less the P is $420/mo, ~$10,000 for two years.

Other costs are the opportunity cost on the $40,000 DP and amortization (~$1000), transaction costs of buying and/or selling ($12,000?), and any HOA and other fees you don't get directly hit with as a renter ($6000?).

So that's about $30,000 in costs to save $40,000 in rent.

Not such a no-brainer, LOL

8   woppa   2012 Feb 8, 3:02pm  

Assuming all that, just gota hope you dont get stuck with it for more than 5 years.

9   Â¥   2012 Feb 8, 3:04pm  

woppa says

just gota hope you dont get stuck with it for more than 5 years.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GS5

And chances are very very good that if by some oddness interest rates are going up, rents are also going up.

And if the meteorite of interest rate rises and falling rents hits, back to the bank it goes (though for that one should not put 20% down I guess).

10   Â¥   2012 Feb 8, 3:12pm  

robertoaribas says

there are heavy transaction costs both ways, and much more time involved

Well, the 6% agent fee is the long pole in the tent here.

But, yeah, LLs are of course willing to pocket ~$10,000 for the convenience of being able to walk after the lease expires.

11   clambo   2012 Feb 8, 4:20pm  

Drop 1. cable 2. parking 3. renter's insurance.
I don't think you need renter's insurance unless you have some very valuable artwork in your place.
Electronic stuff can be replaced for a thousand bucks today.
Buy an antenna for your HDTV, check out CCrane.com for amplified ones.
Get roku for streaming movies no netflix=$8/month.
You live somewhere that has no street parking?

12   bob2356   2012 Feb 8, 4:51pm  

Bellingham Bill says

bighorse says

In 2 years, most of your mortgage payments would have contributed to interest, and not principle. It really is the same as sinking money into rent.

Thing is, the monthly interest on $200,000 @ 3.75% is $625, and that doesn't count the MID. Nice rent if you can get it!

“Nessuna soluzione . . . nessun problema!„

You have to exceed the standard deduction to itemize, 625 a month isn't going to do it.

No way, no how 12k transaction costs on buying and selling a 200k property. Have you actually ever bought a house?

BTW the rent is 1650 not 2000. How do you know the 200k place doesn't also have paid parking.

Pretty loose set up assumptions all around.

13   tatupu70   2012 Feb 8, 8:28pm  

bob2356 says

You have to exceed the standard deduction to itemize, 625 a month isn't going to do it.

You get property taxes and state taxes as well.

14   virginwhodoesntwanttobesacrificed   2012 Feb 14, 3:34pm  

bob2356 says

Bellingham Bill says

bighorse says

In 2 years, most of your mortgage payments would have contributed to interest, and not principle. It really is the same as sinking money into rent.

Thing is, the monthly interest on $200,000 @ 3.75% is $625, and that doesn't count the MID. Nice rent if you can get it!

“Nessuna soluzione . . . nessun problema!„

You have to exceed the standard deduction to itemize, 625 a month isn't going to do it.

No way, no how 12k transaction costs on buying and selling a 200k property. Have you actually ever bought a house?

BTW the rent is 1650 not 2000. How do you know the 200k place doesn't also have paid parking.

Pretty loose set up assumptions all around.

Thanks everyone for the responses. Yes Bob I have never bought a house that is kind of why I am here...you guys know what you are talking about. What would you expect total cost to be? what do you need MID to be to itemize?

clambo says

Drop 1. cable 2. parking 3. renter's insurance.

I don't think you need renter's insurance unless you have some very valuable artwork in your place.

Electronic stuff can be replaced for a thousand bucks today.

Buy an antenna for your HDTV, check out CCrane.com for amplified ones.

Get roku for streaming movies no netflix=$8/month.

You live somewhere that has no street parking?

Our friend the mayor sold the parking to some corporation...they raised rates by 100-200%. Street parking in downtown Chicago is not ideal if not impossible most of the time.

I was thinking about the roku... what subscriptions do you have?

Renter's insurance is mandated...think I could just cancel after I turn it into the landlord?

15   unstoppable   2012 Feb 14, 4:34pm  

Move to a beat up old apartment in ukranian village, enjoy life more.

16   FunTime   2012 Feb 15, 3:10am  

virginwhodoesntwanttobesacrificed says

I'm think about buying a 200K

Why does your desire not to spend $40k over two years result in a decision to spend $200k in the time it takes to sign the papers? You're thinking that the $200k will become more than $200k, right? Much of what you wrote doesn't support that condition.

You have a business background, so consider the relationship of time and money. Then consider your budget and how much income you're committing to saving/spending for growth/investment.

17   bubblesitter   2012 Feb 15, 3:12am  

unstoppable says

Move to a beat up old apartment in ukranian village, enjoy life more.

Or move to one the empty ones near the Chernobyl site when the cannibal anarchy hits,as AF says.

18   CashWillCrash   2012 Feb 15, 4:34am  

cheapest way to go is to buy with fha 3.5% down. then stop paying after 6 or 9 month and live the second year completely free. if the house is still not foreclosed when you leave chicago rent it out and collect rent to recoup your 3.5% down. long live the obama insured fha!!!

19   EBGuy   2012 Feb 15, 5:14am  

CashWillCrash said: cheapest way to go is to buy with fha 3.5% down. then stop paying after 6 or 9 month and live the second year completely free.
Everything I've seen on the intertubez says that Illinois is a recourse state so you could end up with a deficiency judgement. IANAL. YMMV.

20   drew_eckhardt   2012 Feb 15, 5:18am  

clambo says

Drop 1. cable 2. parking 3. renter's insurance.
I don't think you need renter's insurance unless you have some very valuable artwork in your place.

You need renter's insurance and perhaps an umbrella policy for liability coverage against damage you might do to the multi-million dollar building (one of my friends without renter's insurance had to cough up five figures out of pocket because a light fell over, started a small fire, and caused smoke damage) or six figure medical bills (one broken leg will do it) if some one steps in front of your bicycle.

Especially if you have assets (like a $40K down payment for a $200K piece of real-estate).

21   drew_eckhardt   2012 Feb 15, 5:29am  

virginwhodoesntwanttobesacrificed says

Thanks everyone for the responses. Yes Bob I have never bought a house that is kind of why I am here...you guys know what you are talking about. What would you expect total cost to be? what do you need MID to be to itemize?

Federally it depends primarily how much you're already paying in state and local taxes which are the biggest potential itemized deductions for most people. You need to come up with $5950 in itemized deductions as a single person or $11,900 as a married couple before you're paying interest and property taxes with pre-tax dollars.

If you lived someplace with no state income tax (like Washington state) and low property taxes (some of the east side cities are below 1%) with 20% down on a $200K property you'd be paying local taxes and the 2.5% arm interest with post tax dollars.

Your mortgage and property tax bills generally need to be higher to get out of paying state income tax on the interest since the states don't allow an itemized deduction for their own taxes.

22   gregpfielding   2012 Feb 15, 5:52am  

You've got costs going in - mostly loan and escrow/title expenses. And costs going out - mostly commissions, but also 1% or so of misc. costs.

All told, the price of your home would have to appreciate 8-10% just for you to break even. Probably more if you get an FHA loan with upfront mortgage insurance costs.

I don't know much about the Chicago market, but I have to believe the odds of this kind of appreciation over such a short time are very low. In the Bay Area, I usually advise buyers to only buy if they can realistically see themselves staying there for 10 years.

You should rent.

23   DaveM_Renter   2012 Feb 15, 6:17am  

Two years, really?? Rent, of course!!!

Please register to comment:

api   best comments   contact   latest images   memes   one year ago   random   suggestions