patrick.net

Indeed I feel that jobs are coming back. I made a change in career that doubled my current salary.

Since I purchased a home already and my old salary worked, this increase is all disposable income.

double does not mean as much since the dollar goes less than halfway to where it did.

buy houses

CL says

We do! That's why I just hired a super-sunny dispositioned individual. Almost entirely for morale!

I find these people tend to be on serious medication or are just plain old dorks.

Nomograph says

Pessimists seldom realize they are pessimists; they always claim to be "realists."

I believe in being a "realist". Trust me, if I really think that things are going great, I'd be the first to tell you.

Optimism is great during good economic times. But if you're always optimistic no matter what, then you're just deluding yourself. Both optimists and pessimists only see half of the equation. Realists look at real world data and are capable of changing their mind.

Realists asks for the unfiltered data, that the chart was comprised from.

SFace says

The next follow-up leading indicator will be consumer confidence which I predict will be up.

Here it is.

http://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had decreased in January, increased in February. The Index now stands at 70.8 (1985=100), up from 61.5 in January. The Present Situation Index increased to 45.0 from 38.8. The Expectations Index rose to 88.0 from 76.7 in January.

next up, February jobs report, I expect around 200K.

It is developing nicely except gas.

TPB says

robertoaribas says

bring on $4 gas, my properties are all located near light rail and/or close in to employment centers. I ride my bicycle to work..

Wow Robert, you don't say? What is your secret for being unscathed with the important drawbacks of higher gas prices. Like paying double for minimal food, than we were before this all started, because gas is more expensive, everyone is paying 20% inflation a year, for everything across the board, as a direct result of our last and current President Rat fink bastards selling the American people out to Wallstreet and greedy ass speculators.

I think that's great Robert, you live in your own little Snow Globe, wow, no I mean WOW! how in the hell did you fit your over inflated since of bike riding self, in such a little space?

William E Baughb

+1

SFace says

Jobs are coming back!!!

But,Are home prices coming back???

Jobs are coming back? Pay off debt! Pay off debt! Pay off debt!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

As my marketing prof used to say twenty five years ago...IT DEPENDS. Our top storage guy at my present employer (he's the best I've ever known) says good systems engineering talent is always in demand. It's about a lot of things. Technical knowledge is the job but compatibility with other members of the team and then a willingness and ability to learn and adapt must all be part of the mix. You'd be stunned and amazed by the number of people I've worked with in this business who I would not admit to my home. It's scary.

bubblesitter says

SFace says

Jobs are coming back!!!

But,Are home prices coming back???

Eventually? Sure. Folks who said America was kaput in the Great Depression (we knew people who had been through it, have heard all the stories about the banks and FDR confiscating gold and folks walking through two feet of snow to get to their jobs) couldn't have been more wrong.

A former management prof of mine was an acquaintance of Louis Rukeyser who always said people had been betting against us since 1776 and they were always wrong. Warren Buffett will tell you the exact same thing.

People who walk around crowing about 99 percenters are either morons or trying to manipulate the rest of us. I'm not persuaded. If America is done, why do people keep flooding in here from Asia? Why do you think all those Asian students are spending their time and parents money at Berkeley for if not to get out there and make money?

Do we have problems? Yeah. Our currency is shit and we have to fix that, probably with another recession. Remember 1980-1982? That's gonna happen again and it HAS to because we can't get from where we are right now to a growth economy. The Fed says there is no inflation. They quit reporting the level of M3 in 2005 and then we took food and fuel out of the consumer price index. I mean, what in the hell else do most people buy?

Look for Paul Volcker, Act II. You heard it here first. He may not be the guy sitting at the desk testifying before Congress but he'll draw the map. You just watch and see.

Houses beat inflation by only 0.4% annually from 1890-2004. Since 2004, that number is probably right around 0%. The new idea of home prices coming back is really prices staying stagnant. We have been fortunately to feel like houses always appreciate (at least up to 2007), but the reality is a house is one of the worst investment you can make. Investing in wigs would do you better over time. Buy a house because you want shelter and can afford the purchase. Don't buy because you think you can sell later and get your money back and more.

It appears SFAce was right:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/february-jobs-gains-seen-strong-060614362.html

Of course jobs are coming back.

1. Person loses job making X dollars.
2. Person stays on unemployment hoping to find job that pays X dollars.
3. Unemployment finally runs out. Person takes job making much less than X.

So yes, there are jobs, but not at the same salary as they once were. That won't help the housing market.

StoutFiles says

So yes, there are jobs, but not at the same salary as they once were. That won't help the housing market.

Bingo!

Yup. It's the same pattern that's been happening since the 70's. Good jobs are lost to China and India and replaced by shit-jobs in the service sector.

wthrfrk80 says

Yup. It's the same pattern that's been happening since the 70's. Good jobs are lost to China and India and replaced by shit-jobs in the service sector.

Te good,bad and ugly part of globalization!

lol--I figured this would bring out the bears and glass half emptiers.

rootvg says

Eventually? Sure. Folks who said America was kaput in the Great Depression (we knew people who had been through it, have heard all the stories about the banks and FDR confiscating gold and folks walking through two feet of snow to get to their jobs) couldn't have been more wrong.

Thanks to game changing massive reform that was just short of a revolution, called the New Deal.

Not because of a little patience.

thunderlips11 says

rootvg says

Eventually? Sure. Folks who said America was kaput in the Great Depression (we knew people who had been through it, have heard all the stories about the banks and FDR confiscating gold and folks walking through two feet of snow to get to their jobs) couldn't have been more wrong.

Thanks to game changing massive reform that was just short of a revolution, called the New Deal.

Not because of a little patience.

Homo Economicus. Like Bigfoot, reported to exist in fantasy books, but never seen in the wild.

We know for a fact that Roosevelt's reform made the Depression worse. Things were getting better around 1936-1937 when we took another hit after all the government money dried up. I think it's gonna happen again with another recession.

rootvg says

We know for a fact that Roosevelt's reform made the Depression worse. Things were getting better around 1936-1937 when we took another hit after all the government money dried up. I think it's gonna happen again with another recession.

Wow--talk about revisionist history. Let's analyze that statement. Things got better under FDR's reform until 1936/37 when the reforms basically stopped. Then things got worse. To summarize--reforms = better, no reforms = worse.

Your conclusion is that the reforms were the problem??

rootvg says

we took another hit after all the government money dried up. I think it's gonna happen again with another recession.

The Dow tanked 500 points right after the debt-ceiling fiasco. What does that tell us about how much of our economy is dependent on government money?
tatupu70 says

lol--I figured this would bring out the bears and glass half emptiers.

Who said the glass was half empty? It's more like one-fourths full.

rootvg says

We know for a fact that Roosevelt's reform made the Depression worse. Things were getting better around 1936-1937 when we took another hit after all the government money dried up. I think it's gonna happen again with another recession.

tatupu70 says

Wow--talk about revisionist history.

Word.

?w=510

rootvg says

Eventually? Sure.

When? after Japan style lost decades?

thunderlips11 says

rootvg says

We know for a fact that Roosevelt's reform made the Depression worse. Things were getting better around 1936-1937 when we took another hit after all the government money dried up. I think it's gonna happen again with another recession.

tatupu70 says

Wow--talk about revisionist history.

Word.

?w=510

Homo Economicus. Like Bigfoot, reported to exist in fantasy books, but never seen in the wild.

What you don't know is that I've spent years with people who went through the Depression. I'm betting you haven't.

Or, I could be wrong.

rootvg says

What you don't know is that I've spent years with people who went through the Depression. I'm betting you haven't.

Anecdotes make for poor evidence.

Do you have any hard facts to support your claim about the New Deal making things worse?

We cannot have any real growth in the economy until the private debt is completely de-leveraged. Gov't ZIRP (zero interest rates), while helping the debt de-leveraging is killing lending, because, at these low rates and high risk of foreclosure, banks don't want to lend money for housing. ZIRP is also killing savers, so young people cannot save any money to buy the houses from the retiring baby boomers. All those things have to be reconciled, in order for the jobs and real growth to come back. The only solution is lower house prices.

thunderlips11 says

rootvg says

What you don't know is that I've spent years with people who went through the Depression. I'm betting you haven't.

Anecdotes aren't evidence.

Do you have any hard facts to support your claim about the New Deal making things worse?

Homo Economicus. Like Bigfoot, reported to exist in fantasy books, but never seen in the wild.

And this isn't a parlor game and I'm not in your court of law.

We had what was basically a third set of grandparents, and THEIR parents lost all their money in the Depression. I spent the better part of thirty years hearing their stories.

Where do you think I learned all this stuff?

rootvg says

We had what was basically a third set of grandparents, and THEIR parents lost all their money in the Depression. I spent the better part of thirty years hearing their stories.

Yep--the depression was a horrible, horrible time. Which is why I can't understand why many of the posters here seem to want to relive it.

Raising interest rates, cutting government spending, etc. are a recipe for Great Depression II.

And just so I understand--how does your knowing people who lost everything during the Depression lend any credence to your ridiculous statement that FDR's policies made things worse?

dunnross says

We cannot have any real growth in the economy until the private debt is completely de-leveraged. Gov't ZIRP (zero interest rates), while helping the debt de-leveraging is killing lending, because, at these low rates and high risk of foreclosure, banks don't want to lend money for housing. ZIRP is also killing savers, so young people cannot save any money to buy the houses from the retiring baby boomers. All those things have to be reconciled, in order for the jobs and real growth to come back. The only solution is lower house prices.

There are lower house prices, but not in most parts of the Bay Area.

As I keep saying, I was raised in this business. I don't see any reason to believe that desirable parts of this region are going to come into price ranges most of us here would see as "affordable". They're simply too much in demand and there are too many foreign investors (Asians) out there ready to pounce. You can give me all the charts and graphs you want but at the end of the day it's my money and I'm gonna do whatever the hell I want. I saw an opportunity, I took advantage of it and so far the people telling me it was a good idea outnumber those who don't about three to one.

This is always the battle that goes on between academics who say you can't do this or that and the people in the trenches who go out there and do it. After that, it's usually the academics who want some dickhead from the government to come in and make things "fair", whatever the fuck they think that means on any given day.

If you can't pay the prices here, MOVE. We almost did but (as I said) we got lucky in the right neighborhood and the people liked us and we ended up buying something out of an estate. All the kids from that family live in the same neighborhood where daddy built the houses. The oldest brother comes up to check on us about once each day.

tatupu70 says

rootvg says

We had what was basically a third set of grandparents, and THEIR parents lost all their money in the Depression. I spent the better part of thirty years hearing their stories.

Yep--the depression was a horrible, horrible time. Which is why I can't understand why many of the posters here seem to want to relive it.

Raising interest rates, cutting government spending, etc. are a recipe for Great Depression II.

And just so I understand--how does your knowing people who lost everything during the Depression lend any credence to your ridiculous statement that FDR's policies made things worse?

If raising interest rates and cutting government spending are a recipe for Great Depression II, why didn't we have one in the mid to late eighties?

robertoaribas says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Houses beat inflation by only 0.4% annually from 1890-2004. Since 2004, that number is probably right around 0%.

So lets see: I buy a home that rents for 10% or more of price, with a loan at around 4%... AND it increases at the inflation rate? Inflation is quite low right now, but let's use 2% as a goal. With 2% appreciation, ANY purchase at near the same monthly outlay as renting becomes an extremely good investment long term.

Buying in areas where houses are cheap makes good sense. Like you said if you can rent for 10% of price then go for it. Impossible to do that in most areas of the country, especially the BA. BTW, real inflation (you know the one with energy and food) is running more like 6-7%. Don't listen to the results from a new formula that was designed to shield us from the truth. Lets do a 1-for-2 reverse split on the dollar and then post headlines saying "House prices have gone up 100%!" Let them fool the masses, but not us. i.e. watch the shells closely as they move, but also check the table for the trap door. That ball might move around if you are not looking hard enough. :)

http://etfdailynews.com/2012/03/08/inflation-how-the-government-lies-about-the-real-inflation-rate-uup-udn-tlt-tbt/

rootvg says

If raising interest rates and cutting government spending are a recipe for Great Depression II, why didn't we have one in the mid to late eighties?

Well, you have to look at what was going on at the time. There is no single recipe that works all the time. The economic conditions of the mid to late 80s are vastly different than what is going on now. You agree, right?

Therefore the economic policies must be different.

rootvg says

If raising interest rates and cutting government spending are a recipe for Great Depression II, why didn't we have one in the mid to late eighties?

There was no cutting government spending in the mid to late 80s.

Edit: Another chart:

tatupu70 says

rootvg says

If raising interest rates and cutting government spending are a recipe for Great Depression II, why didn't we have one in the mid to late eighties?

Well, you have to look at what was going on at the time. There is no single recipe that works all the time. The economic conditions of the mid to late 80s are vastly different than what is going on now. You agree, right?

Therefore the economic policies must be different.

Volcker's actions between 1979 and 1983 set us up for the twenty year growth spurt that followed. Geez, everyone knows that.

I think we're going to get a new President and Congress and Fed chief who are going to do precisely the same thing. I think they have to.

thunderlips11 says

rootvg says

If raising interest rates and cutting government spending are a recipe for Great Depression II, why didn't we have one in the mid to late eighties?

Homo Economicus. Like Bigfoot, reported to exist in fantasy books, but never seen in the wild.

Here again, it's all about results. If you add up the number of years Republicans versus Democrats have served in the White House since World War II, I think you'll find Republicans come out very well.

Reagan's deficits were so bad because he had a Democratic House to deal with. That won't be a problem for the next guy. Paul Ryan is already meeting with various movers and shakers in both parties, on the sly. They know this president and this administration are dog shit. They can't come out and say it but his polls are what they are, and that means it's just over.

robertoaribas says

rootvg says

Volcker's actions between 1979 and 1983 set us up for the twenty year growth spurt that followed. Geez, everyone knows that.

rootvg: you really are the village idiot!

Volckers action was taken to stop spiraling inflation... It was not taken to 'spur growth' and in fact caused a nasty recession.

seriously, my dogs have a better grasp of economics than you do!

Volcker conspired with Reagan to stimulate the 1980-1982 recession to wring all the inflationary pressures out of the economy that had been hanging around since the late sixties when we had guns and butter. That allowed us to grow for twenty years afterward...and I think the next Fed chief (with the blessing of the White House) will do the same thing. He'll have to.

thunderlips11 says

There was no cutting government spending in the mid to late 80s.

Sort of depends as to what is meant by spending. Under Carter there were block grants to states given with no strings. When Reagan got in they had plenty.

What happens sometimes is that the federal government gives out funds but it can only be spent in that given way. So technically a federal plan might be so similar to a state or local plan but due to spending it crowds it out. It could be called cutting spending depending if you view government as different levels vs all together.

The labor participation rate is too low. We have more people than ever and a lower rate since the 1980s. Also, all women "need" to be working these days - most households are at least dual income.

We are potentially at the edge of a big change. We are certainly in a severe stagflation, with wages dropping and prices of food, gas and rent accelerating.

Its not going to end well. Enjoy every day and love life while you still have it.

Mick Russom says

The labor participation rate is too low. We have more people than ever and a lower rate since the 1980s.

I just read an interesting article about the labor participation rate and why it's lower now. The conclusion of a recent study was that the lower rate was due more to demographics (read older population) than long term unemployment. The authors further thought that the participation rate probably would not jump up as jobs came back and that the unemployment rate should drop faster than most expect.