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odds are that prices will fall this year. nobody knows by how much.
only retards are predicting price increases this year, then again retards have been predicting price increases for the last 5 years so that's nothing new.
gregpfielding
2012 Feb 27, 2:38am
The inventory is half of what it used to be last year and it seems like the inventory that comes onto the market is quickly bought up.
That's exactly the reason why we haven't had authentic price discovery yet. All of the folks who would be for sale (as either short sales or reos) are stuck in loan-mod limbo.
If the extend-and-pretend shenanigans ever stop, expect supply to rise and prices to fall again. Of course, they might never stop and we're just going to be stuck in neutral for another decade.
What do I think RE: Bay Area houses?
1. Foreigners pooling capital and buying. Particularly Chinese and corrupt Chinese officials. The Bay Area and Vancouver are popular, and California in general.
2. Foreigners and nerds working in well paid high tech buying so they can attract and please females. Females want to see a "nest", this is their normal behavior.
3. Clueless among 1&2 above who have been here in USA a short time and think it's not unreasonable to pay $700K for a place having no historical reference except falling prices if they have not been here that long. H1B visa guys who have high salaries may not care.
I may have left some people out.
1sfrenter
2012 Feb 27, 2:51am
I don't believe so, although flat housing prices with inflation means lower prices over the next few years.
What I am seeing right now (in SF proper) is low inventory and many buyers for anything decent under 600K. Open houses that we have attended are mob scenes, with dozens and dozens of people filing in to look.
Crappy over-priced places sit and then get price reductions, anything in good shape that is not fantasy priced gets multiple offers within a week. We've been outbid twice in the last month and the all cash buyers, whoever they are, are out there in force.
I guess that's the "pent-up demand" at work. I know we've been waiting to buy, and apparently so have a lot of other people. Rents are crazy here and the rental market is tight.
I can only speak for my experience, which is limited to houses in the 400-600K range in the city.
gregpfielding
2012 Feb 27, 3:15am
I guess that's the "pent-up demand" at work. I know we've been waiting to buy, and apparently so have a lot of other people. Rents are crazy here and the rental market is tight.
Demand seems high only because Supply is so low.
gregpfielding
2012 Feb 27, 3:20am
Females want to see a "nest", this is their normal behavior.
When you boil just about everything that men do down to it's most basic level - where they live, what they drive, how they dress, where they work, what they eat, etc. - it's almost always to attract and keep a woman. Deep down, we're all cavemen.
RentingForHalfTheCost,
Do you have any new data, this seems to be 3 years old. Since they are using the cure rate from 2009 with NOD from 2010. This website http://bayarearealestatetrends.com/2012/01/24/california-foreclosure-activity-tumbles-in-2011/ states that we had 61,517 NODs filed last quarter. Which is about 20,000 a month. In December we had 37,734 home sales in California. Lets assume inventory didn't change since your article was published at 468,833. So 468,833/(37,734-20,000) gives us 26 months of inventory. But if the inventory number is less than 468k and we get a NOD cure rate higher the zero the months of inventory number will drop fast.
I am beginning to believe that the great crash in the nicer parts of the bay area where people with families would "ideally" love to reside will never happen. I am basing this on my own experiences in visiting a lot of open houses (I have visited over 120 open houses over the past 1.5 years in 3 local cities) in certain parts of the bay area where anything around a million is snapped up with multiple offers (hint, hint - houses in school districts with sky high APIs and in cities with "clueless foreign investors and rich FOB immigrants" as per many threads on patrick.net).
It seems that I need to wait until I am old and gray for there to be a 50% - 65% price drop until I can go shopping. By which time, I may not need a house in the bay area at all. I might need to shop around for retirement homes. So, a lot of $$$ saved for my retirement!
Comments 1 - 11 of 406 Next » Last » Search these comments
Like many of you here I have been waiting for the prices in the bay area to come falling back to earth. Over the past year, the things that I'm seeing make me believe that a huge correction will no longer happen and the prices in most area's have already corrected themselves.
The main reason why the Bay Area was spared from the large housing crash seems to come from the fact that the great recession didn't hit us as hard as other places. This let people keep their jobs and save money. Now as the U.S. is coming out of this recession, the stock market is rising, and people in the Bay Area didn't get scared of investing in housing because there was no major housing crash. We might get a good rise in housing prices. The last example that turned my opinion around is the amount of homes for sale in santa clara county. The inventory is half of what it used to be last year and it seems like the inventory that comes onto the market is quickly bought up. What do you guys think?
#housing