patrick.net

I'd go as high as $100K. Only because I like the Foster City area.

One of my co-workers here in the Bay Area told me that Foster City was built on land fill. I wonder how that is going to work when the Bay Area gets hit by a major earthquake?

Also property taxes. I see that the house is currenly listed at $98K. What happens to your taxes when you buy at a much higher price?

Lady Realtard is having an open house this weekend. I might go just to get a good laugh. Better yet, get a big sign with www.patrick.net on it and protest in front of the property.

Occupy Foster City!!!!

http://rumanajabeen.com/

That is fair market? Wow. You are really drinking from the punch bowl. Wait a year or two and this place will be 20% less. If you can take that kind of drop, then get the home today. Foster City is a great place to live, unless we get that liquefaction happening. Then the rest of your life will be fighting FEMA for money along with everyone else close to the bay, while ignoring the calls from the creditors.

It is not called the "might happen flood". It is called the "100 year flood" and the Foster City Levee doesn't even meet the standard for that. More like a "30 or 40 year flood" can take this place out. Read up on it, it'll scare you silly. Or better yet, walk on the Levee during a high tide. There really isn't much protection. A stiff wind at high tide, along with a small swell would be enough. i.e. If Hawaii burps ;)

A first pass with my calculator says it's worth something like $621K because the rent would be $4,200:

http://patrick.net/housing/calculator.php?uaddr=760+Celestial+Ln%2C+94404

But then I didn't take HOA into account.

Seems unbelievable to me that it could rent for and be worth that much, but they are numbers from my own service, so it's hard to argue with myself.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

That is fair market? Wow. You are really drinking from the punch bowl. Wait a year or two and this place will be 20% less

Just FYI, had I bought in Tarzana just last December, I would have already lost 10%

A first pass with my calculator says it's worth something like $621K because the rent would be $4,200:

http://patrick.net/housing/calculator.php?uaddr=760+Celestial+Ln%2C+94404

But then I didn't take HOA into account.

Seems unbelievable to me that it could rent for and be worth that much, but they are numbers from my own service, so it's hard to argue with myself.

Yah, seems strange to me as well and I have lived here for 5 years. The condos in Foster City rent high compared to houses. It is like there is more demand for condos. Maybe everyone here wants that no/low maintenance feeling.

To me, I don't know why someone wouldn't just rent a larger house for less that the $4200 rent. Here is one available today.

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/pen/apa/2871250447.html

You wouldn't have midnight footsteps, kids banging on the walls, etc. You actually have your own place. Makes no sense to me, but I am always confused by this BA and real estate.

Are these rents this way because of the Bay Area RE Bubble? I mean these numbers are just crazy.

Talked with the Realtard (listing agent) today. She says that she will refer me to a fantasic buyers agent if I decide to make an offer on her listing. Otherwise, she will be my new agent. Oh and by the way, how much money do you have for a down payment and what is the most you are willing to pay for a house?

She can't even wait until the open house this Sunday.

:-(

jvolstad says

what is the most you are willing to pay for a house?

Haha. How can you screw yourself in a most effective way!

It seems you are desperate to buy. First Marlin Ave and now this house. Since I know Foster City very well, let me give some advice. It's up to you weather to take it or leave it. First of all, this house is going to sell for more than its listed for. I do not know how much but somewhere around $675k - $690k. The listing agent is very seasoned player and MARK my word it is going to sell for more. She knows all the tricks.

Second advice. Do not buy NOW. it's absolutely worst time to buy. Wait for 6 more months. Feb - June is worst time to buy. Prices are always high. You will have better negotiating power if you buy in Oct - Dec. I am not sure how desperately you need house but if you can wait then please wait. Don't believe that Facebook IPO will make everyone crazy. US market is going to crash in early 2013. If you can wait it would be best time to buy. If not then Oct- Dec 2012.

leo9,
We have been looking since 2011 August. The inventory was low in Oct 2011- Dec 2011. We did not like any house we saw. So I am not sure if waiting for Oct 2012 will serve us. Foster City inventory has started opening up since Jan 10th 2012 or so.

Also could you please detail why you think the US market is going to crash in early 2013?

We are not desperate to buy but we are not sure waiting longer will do us any good. Places like Palo Alto, Cupertino, Mission Fremont are virtually untouched by the so called bubble burst.

Bay Area != Rest of the USA

Thanks.

leo9 says

Feb - June is worst time to buy.

A year ago this was not the case. Inventories were up this time a year ago quite a bit.

peninsulabuyer says

leo9,

We have been looking since 2011 August. The inventory was low in Oct 2011- Dec 2011. We did not like any house we saw. So I am not sure if waiting for Oct 2012 will serve us. Foster City inventory has started opening up since Jan 10th 2012 or so.

Also could you please detail why you think the US market is going to crash in early 2013?

We are not desperate to buy but we are not sure waiting longer will do us any good. Places like Palo Alto, Cupertino, Mission Fremont are virtually untouched by the so called bubble burst.

Bay Area != Rest of the USA

Thanks.

This site is littered with data showing that there is absolutely no positive energy that will drive prices any higher. In your calculation please assume at best prices stay stagnant for a while. If that is okay with you then buy, otherwise just hang tight. The gravy train is over here in the BA. Stocks will be kicking housing ass for the foreseeable future (obvious my opinion). Tying money up in a house is really pulling it away from good growth areas. (again my opinion).

peninsulabuyer says

leo9,

We have been looking since 2011 August. The inventory was low in Oct 2011- Dec 2011. We did not like any house we saw. So I am not sure if waiting for Oct 2012 will serve us. Foster City inventory has started opening up since Jan 10th 2012 or so.

Also could you please detail why you think the US market is going to crash in early 2013?

We are not desperate to buy but we are not sure waiting longer will do us any good. Places like Palo Alto, Cupertino, Mission Fremont are virtually untouched by the so called bubble burst.

Bay Area != Rest of the USA

Thanks.

Pennisula Buyer -

I agree that there is not much in terms of inventory in oct- dec but you have more negotiating power. Not many people are looking during oct-dec. For the house on Celestial Lane, if you can get this house around $670k- $674K then it's OK price during this time of the year. I am quite positive however that you will probably won't get this house for $670k/$675k. There will be multiple offer on this house. 4bedroom is hard to find in Foster City. If you are willing to stretch your budget a little then go for it but don't be surprised with multiple offer.

Let me tell you how this realtor works - She won't be taking any offer on Sunday for sure. There will be a set date to submit offer. I don't know when but may be this coming tuesday or next tuesday (or any other day). It's typical set up to attract buyers and have them bid against each other.

For 2013, If you look at Macro/Micro economics, you would know that this fake rally is not going to last longer. Elections over market down.

peninsulabuyer says

leo9,

We have been looking since 2011 August. The inventory was low in Oct 2011- Dec 2011. We did not like any house we saw. So I am not sure if waiting for Oct 2012 will serve us. Foster City inventory has started opening up since Jan 10th 2012 or so.

Also could you please detail why you think the US market is going to crash in early 2013?

We are not desperate to buy but we are not sure waiting longer will do us any good. Places like Palo Alto, Cupertino, Mission Fremont are virtually untouched by the so called bubble burst.

Bay Area != Rest of the USA

Thanks.

If you are going to buy in Foster City, please please factor in paying for flood insurance.

http://www.fostercity.org/news/press_releases/Foster-City-Officials-Take-Action-to-Prevent-Special-Flood-Zone-Designation.cfm

Wow wow wow - that is just an absolutely insane amount of money for some shitty 40 year old condo right near the sfo flight path and just off hillsdale and in a flood zone no less.

I know the BA is 'special' but I could never in a million years consider buying something like that - 100k ? Maybe.

Bubbles ALWAYS pop. No way any of this ends well.

we saw 760 celestial lane, 94404 this weekend. there are absolutely no upgrades in this house. windows, carpet , bathroom, sinks etc are all 35 years old . it doesnt has double pane windows or any upgrades in bathrooms.

so its not fair to compare this house with other sold houses that have upgrades with them like gemini lane house or the one that recently got sold on ursa lane.

i would think this house should range around 670k.

bayareadweller says

i would think this house should range around 670k.

Stop using the 'K'. Write it out to feel the full effect of that amount of money. 670,000.00! Over 2/3rd of 1,000,000.00 dollars. For a dump no less. Must be something in the water. I took a sabbatical from high tech for a year and after practically flying around the world and visiting every place I wanted I only burned through 50,000. I could do that 13 times over for 13 years. That in no way is even comparable to the crappy condo asset that is for sale here. Yah Yah, the bay area is special. I contest that it is not the bay area that is special, it is the people that live in the bay area that are 'special'. Not in a good sense of the word. ;) It takes people buying to justify that price.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

That is fair market? Wow. You are really drinking from the punch bowl. Wait a year or two and this place will be 20% less. If you can take that kind of drop, then get the home today. Foster City is a great place to live, unless we get that liquefaction happening. Then the rest of your life will be fighting FEMA for money along with everyone else close to the bay, while ignoring the calls from the creditors.

If everything's going to be twenty percent less than a year from now, that strong precipitous drop would already be occurring. Even Brentwood has somewhat stabilized and it's not even a place where most of us want to live.

It depends...upon location, schools, demographics, proximity to infrastructure, etc. I guess there's another realtor out our way who's screaming bloody murder that we bought ours for what we did. Right there, it tells me we did okay.

It's not what they say. It's what they don't say.

rootvg says

It depends...upon location, schools, demographics, proximity to infrastructure, etc. I guess there's another realtor out our way who's screaming bloody murder that we bought ours for what we did. Right there, it tells me we did okay.

Realtors seems to scream out more than any other profession, except maybe porn. I remember a realtor screaming at me wanting to put 40% down. She said with that money I could buy 3 houses and have 2 rentals. To which I said that I felt that I actually am 60% short on having enough to buy one house. I then witnessed that blank look coming back at me. She then responded that I didn't understand real estate. To which I responded that I actually understood is better than her. ;)

Fast forward to today and that advice if I had taken it, would have crippled me financially.

This really doesn't have much to do with your comment. Except that a screaming realtor is not really a good measure about any decision. You could have gotten a great deal. I hope you did, but if you listen closely enough realtors are screaming each and every day for numerous reasons. They are paid to scream, beat their chests, act like they have more information and knowledge than the average person. If they didn't they would have no followers and be out of work. The job definition needs a certain BS trait that even the nicest realtors learn quickly.

I was raised by real estate and insurance salesmen. I'm all too familiar with their particular brand of pathology. I could have gotten into that business in about thirty seconds. I didn't, and I'm glad.

Yes, they lie but I know where the lies are coming from. Most of them aren't very well educated. That's why they're in real estate, insurance or work for the banks. You don't have to be Einstein to work for a bank.

Had it not been for the increasingly brutal tax bills we're seeing and the fact that we were paying in rent+utilities the same as owning will cost, I would have remained as a renter. We did taxes last weekend on the phone with our CPA and even HE said I needed to buy something because we so desperately needed to find a way to shelter some income. That guy got his MBA from Johns Hopkins and I figure he's smarter than I am.

rootvg says

Had it not been for the increasingly brutal tax bills

But you never save money by paying a mortgage. It doesn't shelter income at all.

You pay interest, and it's gone. Sure, maybe you paid it with pretax money, but its still gone.

rootvg says

Had it not been for the increasingly brutal tax bills

But you never save money by paying a mortgage. It doesn't shelter income at all.

You pay interest, and it's gone. Sure, maybe you paid it with pretax money, but its still gone.

I hear you and for years, that's the opinion I had.

How is it that a guy with a John Hopkins MBA and another guy with an engineering degree and twenty plus years in the commercial real estate business say you're wrong?

What are you and I missing?

Never Trust Realtors says

There isn't a house on the planet worth 670k.

Prices Are Falling.

Realtors Are Liars.

The White House?

Look Obama, you and your family can stay, but you'll have to pay rent, and it's not going to be cheap.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Realtors seems to scream out more than any other profession, except maybe porn.

Classic! +1.

My friends, I want all of you to please consider that bay area is very very costly place. We all know that. Now think about your employer. It's is very costly for them to operate here. You have to pay very high salary, top benefits, bonus, etc. They are not fool. To keep the value of the company and reduce operating expenses they are moving job out of bay area. If you are doing very very special job which only you can do then good you are safe but if you are in profession which can be easily outsourced then it is very stupid to buy in bay area. Most of the jobs in bay area are computer software related which can be outsourced very easily. PLEASE THINK ABOUT THAT. If you are in your mid 30 or 40 it is not fun to loose job.

There's no reason for any large business to remain in the bay area when costs are so rediculously expensive.

Unless that large business is a Big Bank, in which case money is no object. They play by different rules. They are gauranteed a profit.

wthrfrk80 says

There's no reason for any large business to remain in the bay area when costs are so rediculously expensive.

Unless that large business is a Big Bank, in which case money is no object. They play by different rules. They are gauranteed a profit.

If your wife works in public sector, is vested in the pension system and is getting increased responsibility every year, it makes sense.

Otherwise, I would have moved to Virginia or North Carolina long ago.

wthrfrk80 says

There's no reason for any large business to remain in the bay area when costs are so rediculously expensive.

I'll worry about revenue before I worry about cost. The big business here like facebook, Google, Salesforce are generating opearating margins higher than any cheap cost area business.

You can save cost all you want, but top line growth building and enterprise value starts with having a viable product/service first. Sandisk collected several billion in royalties from their IP portfolio. If I was an executive, I'll worry about execution first before cost. You can say Pandora, Zynga never really made money. But the fact of the matter is they are multibillion dollar companies in a handful of years. Spending millions for billions makes sense and the expensive employees are terrific return on investment.

Dell and Apple 10 years ago were peers 10 years ago. Apple in one of the most expensive areas and Dell one of the least.

Apple = Top line approach = thriving
Dell = bottom line appoach = struggling

It took awhile, but Dell has significant research and design in Silicon Valley. Along with Amazon, Nokia, Motorola, Samsung, Microsoft, Research in Motion among others.

SFace says

I'll worry about revenue before I worry about cost. The big business here like facebook, Google, Salesforce are generating opearting margins higher than any cheap cost area business.

There's no reason those businesses can't relocate to cheaper areas in order to make even better margins. You can hook up PCs and servers to the internet anywhere.

wthrfrk80 says

SFace says

I'll worry about revenue before I worry about cost. The big business here like facebook, Google, Salesforce are generating opearting margins higher than any cheap cost area business.

There's no reason those businesses can't relocate to cheaper areas in order to make even better margins. You can hook up PCs and servers to the internet anywhere.

They can but they generally don't. That's because of the local workforce.

People who pay attention to the sorts of things we pay attention to don't always understand what's beyond the numbers. We think the numbers are the story. Sometimes they are and sometimes they aren't. The company I work for is obsessed with what it costs to do business here. They HATE this office, but guess what? Certain highly placed executives have been heard to say the depth of talent here far eclipses that in other parts of the country and since we're in an intellectual capital intensive business, that's the end of the story.

I never expected to be able to buy here. I thought I might be relocated by an employer or would just end up renting because I had to. It didn't happen. We were at the right place at the right time in the right town with the right people...and part of it was just pure dumb luck.

rootvg says

hey HATE this office, but guess what? Certain highly placed executives have been heard to say the depth of talent here far eclipses that in other parts of the country and since we're in an intellectual capital intensive business, that's the end of the story.

I agree that talent is bay area is very good so people who are difficult to find are safe. My main point was replaceable work force. People who are not very difficult to find. Believe me if you are in software firm doing coding then it is very easy to replace you.

leo9 says

rootvg says

hey HATE this office, but guess what? Certain highly placed executives have been heard to say the depth of talent here far eclipses that in other parts of the country and since we're in an intellectual capital intensive business, that's the end of the story.

I agree that talent is bay area is very good so people who are difficult to find are safe. My main point was replaceable work force. People who are not very difficult to find. Believe me if you are in software firm doing coding then it is very easy to replace you.

Good systems engineers who can work with people are NOT easy to find outside major markets. Our senior storage guy told me that over a few beers one day.

Yes, a lot of our people go to lunch and have a beer. I don't do it very often but when the CIO and his lieutenants come to town, they take the troops next door and do pizza and beer. Those guys can DRINK.

rootvg says

Good systems engineers who can work with people are NOT easy to find outside major markets. Our senior storage guy told me that over a few beers one day.

Don't believe everything you hear. I have seen myself two companies shifting base from SF to east coast and canada. You don't Einsteins in your workforce to do day to day operations. Do a little more research and you will be amazed how many jobs are moving.

leo9 says

rootvg says

Good systems engineers who can work with people are NOT easy to find outside major markets. Our senior storage guy told me that over a few beers one day.

Don't believe everything you hear. I have seen myself two companies shifting base from SF to east coast and canada. You don't Einsteins in your workforce to do day to day operations. Do a little more research and you will be amazed how many jobs are moving.

I've been in this business for almost twenty years. I'm advanced certified in my platform of choice. I have connections. My soft skills are pretty good. I'm degreed and university certified where a lot of us aren't.

I'm also not one of those who always thinks the glass is half empty. That's another Bay Area, perpetually-angry-at-the-world, going divergent on all three axes, uncontrolled emotions thing. You don't see a lot of it out where we live. You DO see it in the Castro. No further comment necessary.

There are jobs for me in Texas, Florida and North Carolina but my wife is here and she's public sector with a pension (long ago vested) so I'm stuck.

Sorry but what is your point ? Are you saying companies can't move out of bay area or you can't ?

Penninsula buyer if you are still looking - check out this outrageous listing

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Foster-City/1585-Beach-Park-Blvd-94404/home/932317

leo9 says

Sorry but what is your point ? Are you saying companies can't move out of bay area or you can't ?

I'm saying it's not that simple...

...but for those who have a reason to stay, there are ways to make this place work.

It'll always be vibrant here and it'll always be expensive. Some will stay and some will leave.