patrick.net

rootvg says

Right, except that our jobs aren't in Paterson, NJ.
They're HERE...and they're gonna stay here.

Rootvg,

None of my comments are directed at people like you who are "stuck" in the Bay Area for whatever reason. I get that your situation is unique.

Well, looks like I am falling-back to waiting for salvation...in the form of a 8.0+ earthquake on the San Andreas fault line! If I am REALLY lucky, it will happen on April 4, which will freak out a certain group even more, and that also happens to have a lot of peninsula RE. The more people the next rumbler can shake-out, the better!

thomas.wong1986 says

Anyway much of our tech growth peaked in 2000, as part the industry maturity. So the prior decades are no idicaton that we will repeat the same furious growth. Therefore its going to be much more flat, at best, for years to come with continued pricing and cost pressures.

I completely agree with this. Flat or slightly declining prices is what I see as most likely as well.

What I had an issue with was the forecasts of the $750k house going down to $400-$500k, or that we should expect in your chart that SF and San Jose falling all the way back to the green national inflation line (another 50% drop). Which in fairness you didn't actually write but the chart may seem to suggest.

drtor says

thomas.wong1986 says

Anyway much of our tech growth peaked in 2000, as part the industry maturity. So the prior decades are no idicaton that we will repeat the same furious growth. Therefore its going to be much more flat, at best, for years to come with continued pricing and cost pressures.

I completely agree with this. Flat or slightly declining prices is what I see as most likely as well.

What I had an issue with was the forecasts of the $750k house going down to $400-$500k, or that we should expect in your chart that SF and San Jose falling all the way back to the green national inflation line (another 50% drop). Which in fairness you didn't actually write but the chart may seem to suggest.

400-500K is still too high. After the earthquake it'll be in the 200-300K range IMHO. Cash will be king. ;)

drtor says

I completely agree with this. Flat or slightly declining prices is what I see as most likely as well.
What I had an issue with was the forecasts of the $750k house going down to $400-$500k, or that we should expect in your chart that SF and San Jose falling all the way back to the green national inflation line (another 50% drop). Which in fairness you didn't actually write but the chart may seem to suggest.

Yes that sounds reasonable, considering pre bubble homes between 150-250K... Yes! and than doubled by year 2000..

In some cases we saw 400% increases by peak years..

Yet at best we saw inflation and income chalk up 30-35% ...
it was said time and time again, prices being diconnected from both.

So yes... we would/will see further cuts.. and 50% for some is not of the realm of posibities.

SJ says

Milpitas? Seriously, what a disgusting smelly place to live! P-U! Nothing like the smell of garbage in the summer when the wind blows the aroma of the dump through town.

Didnt they know what they were buying ???

Fremont dump... NYC Hudson River sewage..
what the difference ???

California. Where you pay 3/4 of a million bucks to live by a garbage dump.

Eman,

I looked at these homes also
562 Shelley Ct., and
540 Glasglow Ct.

I was hesitant to put offer as they are crossed 900k and the listing agents told me they have multiple offers and might not even consider my offer (which i was think to put around 850k or so).

If you submit an offer, how would you know that your offer will be accepted regardless of what price you're submitted?
Not sure, I do not trust RE agents

How would you know if the current homeowner does not have a relative buying it back for them, and essentially wiping out the difference in mortgage debt. Also, there is no tax consequences on this transaction. Nice isn't it? :)
I highly expect this is happening in Milpitas area, as lot of agents do not return my phone call to show me the property.

Eman,

I looked at these homes also
562 Shelley Ct., and
540 Glasglow Ct.

I was hesitant to put offer as they are crossed 900k and the listing agents told me they have multiple offers and might not even consider my offer (which i was think to put around 850k or so).

Q1.
Ans.Not sure, I do not trust RE agents

Q2.
Ans. highly expect this is happening in Milpitas area, as lot of agents do not return my phone call to show me the property.