patrick.net

this will end well!

lol

lol f**k this place.

Cattle, racing each other to the slaughterhouse.

bmwman91 says

lol f**k this place.

Cattle, racing each other to the slaughterhouse.

Aye. I grew up here (well, Santa Cruz) and have been doing the Silly Valley start-up thing for ~17 years now. While many of my friends have become incredibly wealthy during that time, my start-up choices haven't been as lucky.

I'm debating on just moving somewhere else.

Just haven't figured out where that somewhere else is yet though.

Funny, not one address to verify these claims

permanent_marker says

"It's amazing what's not out there right now," he said. "There are only 32 homes in the whole city of Santa Clara. We're down 74 percent from February 2011."

Inventory has been simply pathethic here in San Francisco as well with the same level of inventory reduction as noted above.

Seller's expect higher price later and decided collectively to not sell.

ptiemann says

@crazyman: I thought Santa Cruz was the black hole that one cannot get out of? Or so I was told by a girl who wants to leave since 2000. I'm stuck here too, since '97.

I have family and life long friends there so it's a bit hard to leave the area, though it would be nice to part from this rat race.

SFace says

permanent_marker says

"It's amazing what's not out there right now," he said. "There are only 32 homes in the whole city of Santa Clara. We're down 74 percent from February 2011."

Inventory has been simply pathethic here in San Francisco as well with the same level of inventory reduction as noted above.

Seller's expect higher price later and decided collectively to not sell.

Statistics without informed context are usually worthless, easily manipulated and often misleading.

Yes, "collectively" as they probably get further and further behind on their payments =/

So, how long CAN sellers, that want to sell, hold-out? They obviously have some sort of reason for wanting to sell in the first place. Not everyone is going to make a fortune selling their house for IPO cash though. Even if a couple thousand houses along the peninsula go for exorbitant amounts and drive up appraisal comps, who is going to be left to pay those re-inflated prices after IPO folks have been soaked up? If sellers demand comparable asking prices to FB-IPO house sales, but there aren't any FB-IPO folks still buying...they will either have to take the house off-market, or lower the price. If they lower prices to make the sales, that will lower the FB-IPO people's houses appraised values, which will probably irritate some and make for interesting times.

It looks like we have some frothy times coming up (not quite bubblicious). Talk about impulse response testing of the system! The next 12-18 months are going to be interesting. I certainly don't expect to buy anything during that period.

I think the stock market will crash after the facebook ipo.

political instability in other countries will exacerbate these trends.

the article says

The winning bidder on the Palo Alto home was a Google (GOOG) employee

Seriously? $1.65M for a 3/2 ranch with original harvest gold non-functioning oven and vintage knotty pine paneling. A remodeled version of that would rent for what $5k-$6k a month?

I thought Google was supposed to hire smart people?

xenogear3 says

I think the stock market will crash after the facebook ipo.

It will crash again, but for a lot more reasons than the ipo.

David9 says

Funny, not one address to verify these claims

Yeah, I want documentation of these claims. Addresses, bidders, everything.

justme says

Yeah, I want documentation of these claims. Addresses, bidders, everything.

I went to Redfin, searched all records between $1 Million and $1.75 Million, Active and Sold in Palo Alto, there are 65 records.
Not one had 3 brown poles in the front, a tree by a corner with an awning, or even looks remotely like that tan/brown thing in the article.

I think the article is total fabrication complete with paid models.

justme says

Yeah, I want documentation of these claims. Addresses, bidders, everything.

Here ya go:

7 Bennington 94110
House for midgets. SO small.

Listed at 599K
Sold within a week for 711K

justme says

eah, I want documentation of these claims. Addresses, bidders, everything.

Here's another, just a few blocks away, sold immediately:

1 Nebraska St.
Listed 629K
Sold 660K

It's a 1 br 1 ba
WTF?!

bmwman91 says

So, how long CAN sellers, that want to sell, hold-out?

I've been tracking the NODs and auctions. Many are not getting bought at auctions, but the banks aren't listing them after, either.

There's A LOT of people majorly underwater out there. But there really is no inventory.

...Meanwhile, the houses for sale around us just sit and sit and sit.

I thought Google was supposed to hire smart people?

Some people just make money easier than other.
They don't have to be smart.

xenogear3 says

Some people just make money easier than other.
They don't have to be smart

shorting GOOG

xenogear3 says

I thought Google was supposed to hire smart people?

Some people just make money easier than other.

They don't have to be smart.

The BA is full of people that are really smart and make a lot of money, but are also really dumb when it comes to using that money. The combination of lots of money and little financial sense is a dangerous one, as most people here that are interested in BA RE are keenly aware.

bmwman91 says

BA is full of people that are really smart

I knew an engineer (PhD) in SV who knocked out a couple of front teeth when he started some work on his backyard fence. Held the nail in place with his left hand. With right hand, drew the hammer back for his first stroke onto that nail, but drew it too far back, too quickly. Drew it right back till the claw whacked his mouth and two front teeth.
Yeh. Smart folks.

Bernanke bought a house in Washington DC at peak.
Now he is trying to print trillions of dollars to bring the house market up, so he can stay above water.

Scary stuff.

As per reality track, foreclosures are likely to rise 15% this year. In the month of January 2012, 1 in 278 houses in CA got a notice of foreclosure so expect houses to flood the market this year. Have patience.

B.A.C.A.H. says

bmwman91 says

BA is full of people that are really smart

I knew an engineer (PhD) in SV who knocked out a couple of front teeth when he started some work on his backyard fence. Held the nail in place with his left hand. With right hand, drew the hammer back for his first stroke onto that nail, but drew it too far back, too quickly. Drew it right back till the claw whacked his mouth and two front teeth.
Yeh. Smart folks.

smashing a hammer into your own mouth seems, ummmm, rather narrow when i look for smart

lets call the phd a kind of focused intelligence, not the kind of smarts thats good for all humans.

specialization is for insects to quote uncle Bobby H.

http://c2.com/cgi/wiki?SpecializationIsForInsects

if risk, reward and reality are completely decoupled in this bay area

if an applicant couldnt untie their own hands in a hostage situation and program their way in a combination of PHP, SQL, C++, java, perl and 8080 assembler i wouldnt think twice about ignoring that applicant's resume

when i hire, i dont look for specialists, i look for problem solvers, generalists

its always divide and conquer debugging, i dont care if its fuel versus spark for your
car to find why its running rough or if its asserts in your C code

self inflicted hammer to the mouth is a sad life experience, but suggests that the experience is too narrow to understand that debugging fence is the same as the sink drain trap dishwasher, is the same as debugging the rough Ducati idle and the same as the run time stack overflow.

bmwman91 says

lol f**k this place.

Cattle, racing each other to the slaughterhouse.

Man, that is profound! (serious) I love that expression, I'm gonna steal it. Is it common? "Cattle, racing each other to the slaughterhouse" Perfect!!!

Calvium Networks, FriendFinder, Pandora, and few others went IPO but no one mentions them. There are NO millionaires to speak from them. Many many more start up gets sold off because they were never ready for such a responsibility.

NorCalBear says

the article says
The winning bidder on the Palo Alto home was a Google (GOOG) employee

Seriously? $1.65M for a 3/2 ranch with original harvest gold non-functioning oven and vintage knotty pine paneling. A remodeled version of that would rent for what $5k-$6k a month?
I thought Google was supposed to hire smart people?

Yes, they are idiots... Providing you have a stable job and good salary, at least for a Million you can actually buy a $1M home.. in San Jose.. the extra can go to kids education or buy yourself a Corvette.

$1,020,000 5940 KILLARNEY Cir
San Jose, CA 95138
Beds: 4 Baths: 3.5 Sq. Ft.: 2,485

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Jose/1586-Silver-Ranch-Ln-95138/home/559221

Property History for 5940 KILLARNEY Cir
Date Event Price Appreciation Source
Mar 21, 2012 Listed (Active) $1,020,000 -- MLSListings #81210603
Dec 06, 2004 Sold (Public Records) $960,000 1.6%/yr Public Records
Aug 01, 2002 Sold (Public Records) $925,000 14.8%/yr Public Records
Aug 29, 1996 Sold (Public Records) $408,000 -- Public Records

This ones a gem... 3300 sq ft fairly modern home.

Sold on 03/16/2012 $940,000
1603 RANGEWOOD Pl
San Jose, CA 95138

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Jose/5940-Killarney-Cir-95138/home/1520866

Property History for 1603 RANGEWOOD Pl
Date Event Price Appreciation Source
Mar 16, 2012 Sold (MLS) (Sold) $940,000 -- MLSListings #81202082
Mar 14, 2012 Sold (Public Records) $940,000 -8.2%/yr Public Records
Mar 07, 2012 Pending Without Release -- -- MLSListings #81202082
Jan 30, 2012 Pending (Pending With Release) -- -- MLSListings #81202082
Jan 18, 2012 Listed (Active) ** -- MLSListings #81202082
Sep 20, 2011 Sold (Public Records). $846,000 -- Public Records
Apr 20, 2006 Sold (Public Records) $1,555,000 27.8%/yr Public Records
Sep 10, 2004 Sold (Public Records) $1,048,000 -- Public Records

B.A.C.A.H. says

I knew an engineer (PhD) in SV who knocked out a couple of front teeth when he started some work on his backyard fence. Held the nail in place with his left hand. With right hand, drew the hammer back for his first stroke onto that nail, but drew it too far back, too quickly. Drew it right back till the claw whacked his mouth and two front teeth.
Yeh. Smart folks.

Yes, I agree, and you been around too long to know. Its all the media that have created this crap.

http://www.youtube.com/embed/C5d151lqJsA

http://www.youtube.com/embed/CmYDgncMhXw

Its important to realize that once again, this conversation is about the very narrow confines of Silicon Valley. Elsewhere in the BA there is TONS of inventory.

I can honestly say that if I were a Facebook millionaire, I wouldn't buy any bay area property. I'd "throw" my money away and rent a really, really nice house somewhere until I built my dream home elsewhere.

Part of what makes rich people stay rich is investing wisely (or stealing, both tactics work in this day and age), and 50 year old fixer upper homes for 1.5 million bucks, just because you can, does not sound like a wise investment, at least to me.

generallyfd says

Part of what makes rich people stay rich is investing wisely

What part of handing 28-33 year olds $millions of dollars sounds like a recipe for wise investment? lol

a good analysis here : http://bayarearealestatetrends.com/2012/03/28/are-bay-area-home-prices-going-up-again-whats-going-on-here/

Would someone please find this house that sold in Palo Alto for 400K more than asking price with the 3 brown front poles, a tree by an awning, and the tan/brown color? I'm at work and can't do it. Or call the name/number in the article and ask that person. I believe sale records are public domain. Thank you.

permanent_marker says

a good analysis here : http://bayarearealestatetrends.com/2012/03/28/are-bay-area-home-prices-going-up-again-whats-going-on-here/

Good link, thanks!

David9 says

Funny, not one address to verify these claims

I think the claim is true. Movoto shows only 26 homes forsale today in Santa Clara.

However, I don't see that as positive. To me it shows that people are not happy with the price their home would get them. They are holding out for better. The question is if they are right to hold out or not. I personally, know a few people that own in Santa Clara and would sell in a heartbeat if prices where higher.

http://www.movoto.com/mapsearch.aspx#ButtonResult&Santa$032Clara$044$032ca&&MinPrice_0/MaxPrice_0/PropertyType_1/ListingType_0/SortBy_0/PriceReduced_0/HasPhotos_0/HasPool_0/NewListing_0/HasOpenDate_0/MetroArea_1/

There seems to be ample evidence that, right now, supply is highly restricted in the "desirable" areas and the areas adjacent to them. Constricted supply & undiminished (or larger) demand = higher commodity price. For how long will the supply be tightly constricted? Nobody knows. The shadow inventory out there is huge, but I am not 100% sure that we can ever count on it hitting the market & being available to normal people.

Why does it really matter if supply is limited in the "desirable" ( specific SV towns and parts of SF) areas anyway? The prices have been crazy high- as in higher than probably any of us can afford for years- both during and after the boom. Meanwhile, prices and supplies are lower and plentiful most anywhere else in the BA.

bmwman91 says

The shadow inventory out there is huge, but I am not 100% sure that we can ever count on it hitting the market & being available to normal people.

I too don't buy the shadow inventory in the bay area. Or if there is such an inventory the banks would greatly prefer to sell in bulk to investors as they have in the past. I have gone after a few foreclosures and have found the process to be much more confusing than a regular purchase.

Anyone who has tried to buy a house recently knows that the bidding wars in certain areas are back. I have watched the inventory decrease steadily in Santa Clara for the past few months. I think you combine that with a slight uptick in interest rates and you have the ingredients for a bidding war. Whether that subsides is just a guess for anyone. But if you believe that the economy is at least stable for the time being and you combine that with the fact that construction has been limited the past few years then things may stay heated for awhile.