patrick.net

bmwman91 says

Why does it really matter if supply is limited in the "desirable" ( specific SV towns and parts of SF) areas anyway?

If those places are your home, where you work and where your kids go to school and where you have roots and community, then yes, it does matter. Just not to you...

If you are twenty-something and childless, maybe relocating is an option. But once you have kids and hit your forties and are established in your career....

bmwman91 says

The media seems to be pushing the "2012 year of recovery" angle, and a lot of people that want to believe that seem to be buying it.

They've been saying this for 5 years running.

1sfrenter says

bmwman91 says

The media seems to be pushing the "2012 year of recovery" angle, and a lot of people that want to believe that seem to be buying it.

They've been saying this for 5 years running.

For sure. This year seems to have extra fervor though, probably due to the elections coming up.

Yes I cant wait for Obama to brag about all the bailouts he has done (saving loanowners and thier loans!) and to promise even more bailouts for the banks (loanowners loans again disguised as housing).
Of course the R party is the same party (except for non financial doesnt matter cant enforce it anyway stupid social issues).

1sfrenter says

The real shadow inventory is all the people who borrowed and bought between 2004-2008 in the Bay Area who are now underwater by hundreds of thousands$$$.

While that may be true, time will take care of some, some will give up, and others will stick it out until their house is paid off. I would not deem it as bulk inventory screaming to come back on the market.

I don't know much about the city, only my little corner of the bay area. SF is another world to me, but here is to hoping your strategy pays off for you.

Here is something to consider:

here is a search for zipcode : 94043 (mountain view, not high end)
redfin : for sale : 12
realtytrac : regular sale (5) , foreclosure sale (7) [adds upto 12 reported by redfin],
but here is a kicker : in-foreclosure : 72 !

see the screen shots

2 cents says

I too don't buy the shadow inventory in the bay area.

image from realtytrac

Wow, a 90% Foreclosure Micro Market.

I suppose we should believe the article.

You should make the same comparison for Santa Clara, only since it was mentioned that the inventory is so low.

I made a thread last week about the this. Based on the numbers from foreclosureradar & hotpads, the shadow inventory of houses in foreclosure (but not listed) is many times the size of the market of regular listed sales.

The real question is whether or not those houses will become available to the public to purchase. My bets are on "no" since the RE game is a rigged one, and the only people that I think will get access to them are in large institutional investing firms.

bmwman91 says

and the only people that I think will get access to them are in large institutional investing firms.

Bingo

Santa Clara stats :
redfin : 86 for sale
realtytrac : in foreclosures 244

@patrick
the image scaling / resizing isn't working correctly.

75% Foreclosure Micro Market.

Let me get out my check book.

1sfrenter says

Pacific Heights will NEVER be cheap, so don't hold your breath for an affordable mansion with views of Alcatraz.

For many in decades past, Pacific Heights never mattered, so why should it matter today and decades into the future.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

I think the claim is true. Movoto shows only 26 homes forsale today in Santa Clara.

You have over 64 sold last month in SC City from +1200 total county.

http://dqnews.com/Articles/2012/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay120315.aspx

http://dqnews.com/Charts/Monthly-Charts/SF-Chronicle-Charts/ZIPSFC.aspx

permanent_marker says

the image scaling / resizing isn't working correctly.

Thanks for telling me! OK, scaling is fixed now, but width is still limited to 500 pixels.

Should I make the maximum image width 600 pixels instead? Might muck up the text formatting a bit.

Should I make the maximum image width 600 pixels instead? Might muck up the text formatting a bit.

@patrick
thanks for fixing it!
500px width is fine; could you make the images clickable to show the actual image
(I don't want to hijack the thread... )

permanent_marker says

could you make the images clickable to show the actual image

OK, done! Well, it's done for new images from now on. All the old ones are already formatted and the formatting was not clickable. I'd have to change the database in a big weird way to find all the existing images and make them clickable.

More suggestions please!

generallyfd says

I can honestly say that if I were a Facebook millionaire, I wouldn't buy any bay area property. I'd "throw" my money away and rent a really, really nice house somewhere until I built my dream home elsewhere.

$5M is sitting in your bank.. all cash.

You get up one morning say 6 or 7 am ready for another day at work and it hits you. Everthing changes! You reach over and leave a message on your bosses, voice mail. "I quit". You lay there contemplating.. "what now?".. its a very strange feeling.
Everything looks and feels diferent.

The foreclosure maps are not helpful unless you remove the NOD (notice of default). 90+% of the NODs recover, or are sold at normal market value.

permanent_marker says

Santa Clara stats :
redfin : 86 for sale
realtytrac : in foreclosures 244

...Precious...

Netreality says

The foreclosure maps are not helpful unless you remove the NOD (notice of default). 90+% of the NODs recover, or are sold at normal market value.

I am not sure I would use the foreclosure maps as any kind of barometer as to the health of the market or direction of prices. I am actively looking for a good foreclosure in the area and I have not had any luck finding a bargain amongst them. If it has any kind of rental value there is good competition. The one I went after as a residence a couple of years ago ended up getting dozens of offers and I had no sense of where the other bids were. The top bidder didn't get a great bargain, but did get a nice house (for Santa Clara).

2 cents says

I am not sure I would use the foreclosure maps as any kind of barometer as to the health of the market or direction of prices

I do. Cause the market is tanking.

edvard2 says

2 cents says

I am not sure I would use the foreclosure maps as any kind of barometer as to the health of the market or direction of prices

I do. Cause the market is tanking.

But the market is going up? Foreclosures are being sold at higher than market value. It doesn't matter that they have been sitting idle for the last 2 years. People like the fact that they have to reinstall the copper piping and repair the walls and fixtures. It means they can shop at Home Depot. People's savings accounts are growing incredibly with the huge unemployment and welfare checks. They are looking for somewhere to pull all that cash. The cost of food and energy has dropped to nearly nothing so they find it hard to spend the check fast enough before the next check arrives. What a great time for our country!

Yes, a high NOD rate is indicative of a healthy RE market. Clearly, there isn't enough money here to support the market or these NODs wouldn't happen in the 1st place. This fact should not be ignored.

Also, Netreality, please show us a citation WRT 90% of NODs recover or are sold at market.

I'd hazard a guess that 90% are short sold under market and maybe 10% of the owners recover or get mods.

I think the real issue here isn't the shadow inventory of foreclosures, because the banks and uncle sam control that market. It's the number of would-be short sales where the owners are holding out hope for a principal reduction. Once that ship sails, I think we'll start to see more short sales hit the market.

But I doubt we'll see principal reduction dreams crushed during an election year. 2013 will be the earliest inventory begins to rise again.

gregpfielding says

But I doubt we'll see principal reduction dreams crushed during an election year. 2013 will be the earliest inventory begins to rise again.

Good point. I never though of the implications of the election year. I guess we can label 2012 as the "wait-n-see" year.

This is so different, yes, in Southern California, than the last housing downturn around 1993.

1.) No property auctions or very few at high reserve price
2.) Low inventory, debateable quality and features of available listings
3.) Extended time length of market stagnation
4.) Expected market behaviour different than real market behaviour considering most of the properties available are bank owned or short sales.

Hmm, clicking the images to get larger versions does not work for me...

It will only work for new images. That is, images posted after Wed, 28 Mar 2012 at 4:41 pm.

My husband and I currently rent a 2bdrm 2 ba apartment for $2200!

After following the market for a year or so, we had finally (after much hesitation) decided to buy a house -
Renting a 3bdrm 2ba house in santa clara/sunnyvale/milpitas area is currently about $2600. And buying a similar house with 20% down payment is $2800 - it made sense - why shouldn't one buy?

And now this article comes along and we're back to square one and confused again! Thanks Patrick.net! :(

I believe that housing is going to go further down, especially in bay area. Does this mean that the world is going to go to hell in a hand basket if I am right? Is the sky really falling?

bg says

Does this mean that the world is going to go to hell in a hand basket if I am right?

LOL! when you look at the long history of home prices like that of the SFBA, the answer is NO! its going back to normal. And yes, its Hell for those who were making a rich Commissions on the sale of Bubbles... They will see or have seen a 75% drop in their commission earnings. So it depends who is asking...

Back to normal lower prices is good for everyone !

nspiratn says

Renting a 3bdrm 2ba house in santa clara/sunnyvale/milpitas area is currently about $2600. And buying a similar house with 20% down payment is $2800 - it made sense - why shouldn't one buy?
And now this article comes along and we're back to square one and confused again! Thanks Patrick.net! :(

I think a lot of people who read these articles get sucked into competing and overbidding. If you hang in and make reasonable offers that work for you, you will eventualy stumble on the the right situation. But it pays to be hanging around when the high offer drops or the person wants to sell quick and you are the one left sitting at the table. I was outbid many times for properties, but have never regretted not paying more than I thought was reasonable (by Bay Area standards).

I agree that exercising patience and being persistent can pay off. My cousin is closing on house in San Jose. They got out-bid on 4 or 5 prior to this, but they kept tabs on those 4 or 5 and ended up getting one when a higher bidder fell through. To the best of my knowledge, they paid exactly asking price since the seller got antsy. It is a lot of work, but if you are adamant about buying, and you aren't anywhere near the peninsula, persistence probably pays off.

http://www.foreclosureradar.com/california/santa-clara-county-foreclosures

Someone asked me to state my source. It's in the news periodically that almost nothing actually makes it to a sale on the courthouse steps.

In the above example, about 600-800 new Notice of Defaults are filed monthly in Santa Clara, but only 150 or so are actually repossessed by the bank. The rest are recovered, cancelled, perhaps short sale, but not REO.

Ignore NOD listings. Not meaningful, at least in the short term. Only 10-20% become actual foreclosures in 1-2 years.

Short sale, reo, it's a wash to me. More houses need to come on the market. The fact that they're being issued means people aren't making their payments. I can't see how that's meaningless. The link you posted shows 37% are foreclosed on. That's quite a bit.

Considering that the cure rate for homes that receive a NOD is about 5% for the entire nation, I'd say NOD shouldn't be ignored.