patrick.net

I will:

F: start shorting the banks that hold the mortgages

I will do what wthrfrk80 is doing. Fundamentals will assure that another "bubble" can only be temporary.

A lot of people will simply move.

wthrfrk80 says

I will:

F: start shorting the banks that hold the mortgages

Same here, of course I don't live in the BA. But the way this state is ran I wouldn't be surprised if many will want to abandon it simply.

IBM has job openings in San Jose and San Francisco on a regular basis that can't be filled. Most of their people can't afford to live in the area.

Things aren't gonna change. There's no reason. The trust fund babies are still here. The wealthy Baby Boomers are still here. The Berkeley profs who live in Orinda and Lafayette are still here.

If anything, the property situation and income disparity are likely to get worse.

There's too much money here...but that's how it is. Been that way for years.

wouldn't do anything different.

1. keep renting
2. keep investing the extra money i save by renting, in stocks and bonds

i make good money. rent is cheap. no reason to change my strategy.

I think this is just a spring bump up that will not last. Yahoo laying off thousands of workers will balance out the facebook IPO.

We are looking, but will keep renting til we find exactly what we want. We are looking in the 400-600K range in the city and I have been following very closely.

There is a shadow inventory out there and banks are sitting on vacant homes, even in desirable places within San Francisco.

Everyone who bought between 2004 and 2008 is underwater, to the tune of 100K or more.

The only reason we are seeing bidding wars is because realtors are listing places for under what they know they will go for. There are plenty of places that are sitting fort 30, 60, 90+ days.

1sfrenter says

The only reason we are seeing bidding wars is because realtors are listing places for under what they know they will go for. There are plenty of places that are sitting fort 30, 60, 90+ days.

Well the thing is that even though the realtor was trying to insinuate that things were heating up, there are a lot of houses that have been sitting, sometimes for a marked period of time. Now- granted most have now sold and some seemingly more recently. But some had been sitting for 6-9 months.

At least in the area we live in it seems that there are homes that will sell, but only at a certain price. Anything that's north of 500k seems to sit. Anything over 600k sits for quite a long time. Perhaps I find this a bit comforting. My wife and I make a dual 6 figure income and there's no way I would touch anything over 500k. Otherwise our mortgage- even with a big down payment- would be a lot more than we're paying in rent. Perhaps others are feeling the same and thus the reason why only houses that aren't crazy expensive are selling.

Hysteresis says

rent is cheap

Rent is FAR from cheap... Last I checked rents were at a historic all-time high and increasing.

Rent isn't cheap as it was. Our situation is unique in that we've lived in the same house 9 years with no rent increases. But even if we rented now it wouldn't take much of a house in the BA to suddenly pay a lot more than renting the same house, and that's also after adding in a down payment.

BoomAndBustCycle says

Hysteresis says

rent is cheap

Rent is FAR from cheap... Last I checked rents were at a historic all-time high and increasing.

i wasn't speaking for you. i was speaking for me.

rent -for me- is cheap.

rent is cheap relative to my income, and relative to the cost of housing in my neighborhood (median around $800k).

i suspect, although i haven't looked too deeply, my rent is cheap relative to a lot of the rent prices in the bay area even though i'm in a nice neighborhood. i've had one rent increase in the 6 or 7 years i've been living here.

Anyone got an opinion on Mountain View?

Personally, I think this generation is a little tired of housing as a bubble so I expect the next bubble to be elsewhere. BUT if I did suspect a bubble situation then:

A.5 Buy a house on cheap & easy credit, flip it, make 25%. Rinse and Repeat.

Duh. Absolutely nothing but fantastic things have happened to the people who did this last time EVEN if they acted a fool at the end.

Goran_K says

I will do what wthrfrk80 is doing. Fundamentals will assure that another "bubble" can only be temporary.

I'll not only short, I'll do shorting on margin. Bring it on!

BoomAndBustCycle says

Hysteresis says

rent is cheap

Rent is FAR from cheap... Last I checked rents were at a historic all-time high and increasing.

In the BA rents are way under the ownership costs. By a lot! That makes them cheap when comparing against the alternative of buying.

Hysteresis says

wouldn't do anything different.

1. keep renting

2. keep investing the extra money i save by renting, in stocks and bonds

i make good money. rent is cheap. no reason to change my strategy.

Ditto. I'd probably pick up a few home depot shares cause if people are going to start living in the empty foreclosures they will need to fix them up first. ;)

Hysteresis says

i suspect, although i haven't looked too deeply, my rent is cheap relative to a lot of the rent prices in the bay area even though i'm in a nice neighborhood. i've had one rent increase in the 6 or 7 years i've been living here.

Your situation is the exception to the rule. You must have a very generous landlord.