patrick.net

Nope.

IMO trailing stops make timing your exit pointless.

As a fundamentals-driven investor it is irrelevant to me that some index score passes 14000. However, it is true that as the stock market gets higher, it tends to become more compelling to sell off the positions I have and more difficult to find new deals that I think are cheap, so I may reduce total stock ownership for those reasons.

E-man says

Who is planning on bailing out of the stock market or raising a significant amount of cash in their portfolio when the DOW hit 14,000?

Me.

Stocks are overvalued on a long-term basis:

http://www.multpl.com/

I think people are putting money into stocks because there's simply nowhere else to put it: safer investments yield far too little.

There's too much money chasing too few investments. Thank you, ultra-low interest rates.

If interest rates (REAL interest rates) rise, stocks and bonds will drop.

Right now I think cash is the worst asset class, except for all the others.

Some stocks I'll sell as soon as I get it into capital gains territory. Just the gambles.

Most I'll hold on to for either dividends or long term.

everything else is still down except the stock market... not good... yes, safe investments are not good either...

Bail out to buy WHAT?

clambo says

Bail out to buy WHAT?

Exactly.

There's too much money in stocks because all of the alternatives suck.

Cash? Being eaten away by inflation.
Gold and Silver? They're already high.
Bonds? They'll go down if interest rates rise, rates are at record lows.
Real Estate? That's not exactly an "investment" unless you plan on becoming a landlord.
Beer and Hookers? Hey, you only live once...

Few people make out like bandits who pull their money based on gut reactions.

clambo says

Bail out to buy WHAT?

Damn good question. Buy and hold (if possible forever) AAPL. It is a growth stock that pay dividends, what not to like. As pointed out by wthrfrk80, other asset classes are not good.

Cash? Being eaten away by inflation.
I don't know... Beef is the only commodity I'm worried about right now

EBGuy says

Beef is the only commodity I'm worried about right now

Tell me about it, I told my favorite Butcher the other day...
"You used to have reasonable prices, but now you're boutique Man!" Then I walked.

But then I realized as I drove away, I'll probably regret that after the prices come back down. He always humors me, by bringing several loins out and allowing me to meticulously inspect each one.

I keep telling people the great thing about cash is, it's yours and nobody can take it away from you. Sure they quip about inflation and the devaluation of the dollar. But I pulled of something by just saving my money, and paying my bills, before the ink dries. Built good credit and bought a house. I'm pretty sure I can parley that technique into buying a business eventually.

I'd like to see 401K'ers be so lucky, they'll do good just to retire with what they put in it, let alone what the employer matched.

E-man says

It has nothing to do with the number 14,000. It just coincides with a double top at approx. 14,000.

If you say so. "Double top" is as irrelevant to me as "14000" :)

Cash? Being eaten away by inflation.

Not if we get a depression or big recession.

Cash is the worst asset class right now. Except for all the others.

E-man says

Actually, it's not based on guts. It's based on technical analysis and market timing. Don't know what to do until we get there, and will have to evaluate the A/D ratio and some other indicators before pulling the trigger. It's hard to take watching the DOW drop to 10,000 then 8,000. :)

Then if the decision were based on technical analysis then everyone would leave their stocks in place- assuming they had invested broadly. If they did so then historical technical analysis would show that they would basically expect a 7-10% annual long-term return and that pulling their money would be a dumb move.

* not financial advice.

technical analysis is voodoo

rockyroad says

lame chart readers

Bwra Ha Ha Ha(gulp)(swallows my skoal) cough cough cough hack! Ha ha ha ha...

I have a feeling that we will see 12000 before 14000.

Anyone here want buy DOW 30 at 14k from me?

Simple answer.
All you need to know is SELL when the masses show FEAR and BUY when they show CONFIDENCE.

Unless some knucklehead prints trillions, bails out banks with taxpayer funds and offers that money with NO INTEREST !!