patrick.net

According to the SJ Murky News, and most of the intertubes, Facebook is going to have its IPO tomorrow. Just for fun, let's get some guesses going in here. I'd suggest a betting pool, but that's sort of illegal in CA and I am not sure how we'd handle the money anyway.

OK, so put down your guesses for what the stock price will do relative to the opening price at future dates, and your explanation of WHY in 10 words or less for each. Use the dates in my guesses as the template. Either guess higher/lower (feel free to add adjectives), or as a percent of tomorrow's initial offering price.

@Closing on 5/18: 250% - Initial frenzy by anyone with an account
@Closing on 5/21: 300% - Continued frenzy by anyone with an account
@Closing on 5/25: 150% - Many initial buyers selling for quick profit, uninformed masses panic
@Closing on 6/18: 125% - Uninformed buyers are mostly out, large players remain
@Closing on 8/18: 125% - Large players holding still
@Closing on 11/18: 80% - Lock-up ends, employees & pre-sale buyers liquidate
@Closing on 5/18/2013: 50% - Earnings not amazing, more employees liquidate, approaching company's actual valuation

And of course, we can get some good trash talking going in here. My guesses may well be full of shit, or yours, or everyone's. There's no need to be bashful about it.

I will NOT be trying to buy any FB shares. While it seems like a "sure thing" to buy as many shares as I can at opening & sell before closing for quick money, there is no such thing as a "sure thing." Honestly, anything could happen tomorrow since this is probably the most hyped market event ever.

Cheers!