patrick.net

Housing Prices Are Cratering says

Give it time because 1990 levels is the bottom.

1990 home prices were higher than 1996 home prices in Los Angeles.. so calling 1990 a bottom doesn't really make sense.

Avg homes in my neighborhood were $175K in 1996.. but interest rates were like 8%. Now average homes are $365K...with interest rates a 3.75%.

2012 - About $2059...PITI 16 years later...
1996 - About $1413.. PITI

So about $600 a month more expensive to own a home from 16 years ago...

Yeah, what a painful bubble that needs to burst much further... that's about on par with inflation...

Now if rates rise.. (which i dont' see happening.. I see us going JAPAN style with rates). Only our housing fell a lot harder and faster than JAPAN ever did... so if we keep rates low for as long as Japan has... we already have a huge head start in price drops.

I don't see the downside being much more than 20% at MOST from current prices. And that would mean the economy would have to TANK hard.. and the FED would have to raise interest rates hard.

I do see the economy tanking hard.. but no way the FED is raising interest rates if that happens.

A long slow slide is the only viable scenario... People will lose money on homes.. but nothing catastrophic like in 2006. Renters will continue to be gouged in RENT increases.

And in 15 years.. renting vs. owning will be a wash at worst if you buy in 2012.

BoomAndBustCycle says

Avg homes in my neighborhood were $175K in 1996.. but interest rates were like 8%. Now average homes are $365K...with interest rates a 3.75%.

not to mention for some who can remember.. both prices and interest rates declined from 1990 to mid 90s. Lower interest rates didnt influence higher buying and prices.

Housing Prices Are Cratering says

Then you're going to be shocked.... stunned over the coming years.

in my area, some sellers and potential sellers Im sure are already shocked due to the recent facebook fuck up...

look at this idiot!

LOS GATOS, Calif. (KGO) -- A Silicon Valley couple is offering an unusual deal to sell their house. Their 11.5-acre estate on Forrester Road in Los Gatos, California is selling for $29 million. But if you're short on cash, the owners will also take pre-IPO shares of Facebook.

Housing Prices Are Cratering says

Then you're going to be shocked.... stunned over the coming years.

The side effects of real estate falling over 20% more nationwide would be shocking to you also. I'd watch what you wish for!

Housing Prices Are Cratering says

Uh huh. Right. Because we'll all come down with radiation sickness and the sun will rise in the west, right?

Our government has started WARS for far more trivial reasons than a collapse of real estate to 20 year lows.. and wiping out of the middle class via asset and wage deflation.

So "radiation sickness" may be a viable possibility.. things can get ugly fast when you got a lot of desperate, broke citizens spanning the globe... and broke governments with their fingers on nukes.

BoomAndBustCycle says

The side effects of real estate falling over 20% more nationwide would be shocking to you also. I'd watch what you wish for!

It happened before, the country didn't go into cannibal anarchy.

OMG, here Patrick, here is everything mentioned, only you didn't say it. ;-)

1.) Zombie, insolvent, bankrupt banks
2.) $1 Trillion in toxic, impaired mortgages
3.) Banks borrow for 0, zero percent interest
4.) Another pool of three percent 3% down sucker buyers

http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-03-21/markets/31219076_1_shadow-inventory-insolvent-banks-real-estate-market

I inquired about a shared rental today, in asking questions, party told me they are in foreclosure and won't be booted out until the end of the year so is trying to recoup some money. Payment is 1240 + condo dues + property taxes, they paid 175k, now it's valued at 124k.

That's a fairly heavy debt burden, but a good one to get out from underneath.

Call it Crazy says

That article was right on the money....

Yes, thank you. :) There is no housing market. It's all about the banks waiting:

"until unicorns arrive and valuations return to bubblicious 2006 levels where the bank can unload them with no loss."

Call it Crazy says

We'll all be dead by the time that bubble returns....

Hopefully we won't be dead by time more reasonable, 'real' housing prices return. I don't want to use the term 'market' because it is anything but that.

Housing Prices Are Cratering says

Yet the truth is housing prices are still at 2003 levels.

Why deflect from that truth?

My reference was to your CALL for housing to fall back to 1990s prices.. or lower. I'm saying if that happened... The "fallout" could EASILY cause World War 3.

Goran_K says

It happened before, the country didn't go into cannibal anarchy.

that's because the stock market rebounded.. and unemployment is keeping people from starving. Austerity hasn't kicked in for the US yet....

Another crash and a republican presidency will guarantee austerity... then all bets are off..

Again, watch what you wish for...

Call it Crazy says

What happens if housing falls back to where it should be... 2.5 times wages? What year was that??

2.5x wages doesn't take into account interest rates... My home is approx 3.5x my wage... but i have a sub 4% rate.. if i bought a home 2.5x my current income in early 2000.. I would have been paying more per month upon purchase.

Refinancing would change things.. but 2.5x wages while safe.. isn't really the average for many major US cities. Even in high rate environments.

If interest rates stay below 4% for as long as they did in Japan... Then a long slow slide is all that will occur.. and eventually nominal home prices will rise.

BoomAndBustCycle says

2.5x wages doesn't take into account interest rates... My home is approx 3.5x my wage... but i have a sub 4% rate.. if i bought a home 2.5x my current income in early 2000.. I would have been paying more per month upon purchase.

And home prices shouldn't be the metric--it should be mortgage balance.

Margaret Has A HorseFace says

WRONG.
Prices are construction costs + profit+ lot costs less depreciation.
And don't you forget it.

Here's an econ 101 lesson for you.

Price is not a function of cost. It doesn't matter how much it cost to build a house, the price is a function of supply and demand.

Margaret Has A HorseFace says

When demand is met by new supply

Sure--when is that new supply coming? Housing starts are at all time lows, last I checked.

Margaret Has A HorseFace says

You better check again because we're building and we'll continue to build and sell at double digit percentages under resale housing.

OK--I checked again. Still near all time lows.

Margaret Has A HorseFace says

Whatchya think about that

I think I'm wasting my time with a troll.

Margaret Has A HorseFace @ #34,

Just read your comment about being "shocked". Being the spur of the moment & without links for backup,I can remember those that thought home prices would end in middle 1950's prices. This was around 2-3 years ago.

Margaret Has A HorseFace,
My Bad:adjusted for inflation.
http://boingboing.net/2011/03/04/us-house-prices-fall.html

I went to the open house this weekend. Nice community built in 1995. At that time there were selling these new homes for $245k (2,700 sq ft). Prices in 2005 were at $845k and now they are at $715k. I don't think they would ever go to 1995 prices but how much you think they would sell for when that bubble bursts completly?
I think that median family income in that area is close to or a little bit over $100k.
I still cannot imagine that these houses would go down as much as to $300k - $350k.

@Lynnetemarcene

Flood of Shadow Real Estate Inventory about to hit the market will drive prices further down.

Heard this story a couple years ago. How do we know it's gonna be for real this time?

People are still stretching to buy a house. Job loss is still a potent threat and globalisation and free trade are accepted as the gospel truth by both parties and Presidential candidates.

Housing will have to match the new reality. I remmebr back when a million dollar home was something rare. Then the boom came and every track home in places like Dublin and San Ramon came close to a million or more. 300-400k would be the right place-all things considered.

OK people, I believe you!

However, when I come to that web site I feel like I live in an alternate reality.

I put an offer on the foreclosure a month ago. It was a "multiple bidding" situation. I said "screw it I'm not going to go crazy and outbid myself and gave up".
Today this same house sold for $140k more than I offered and $100k more than selling price !!!

Tell me why we would have such a catastrophic downturn when everybody drinks that 'cool-aid' again?

Times are so crazy right now that I really need some kind of faith to stay rational myself. Just convince me some more. I'm losing it...seriously!

We try to be rational, calculate our price range, prepare our down payment, we make sure our credit score is good, we go through the lending process. We check comps, we check the neighborhood schools, inspect houses 4 times, talk to neighbors, research, and study the market conditions and current situation. We understand laws of supply and demand, we know inflation rate, we use buy vs. rent scenarios calculator. We consider additional costs of owning, pros and cons of renting.
We tried to buy a short sale house 2 years ago. Waited with our offer for four mounts and finally learning that the bank took someone else's offer which was about $20k lower than our offer and we were better qualified buyers anyway.
Now, this one was bought by someone for $140k more. Does it even make sense? Does even any logical, mathematical law apply in that type of environment?
You try to learn, you try to prepare, you do everything you possibly can and it still doesn’t work!
There is no book, no web site, no blog, no agent, no prescription which could help you to get the house you want at the price you feel is right. I feel it is just plain and ugly luck or a lot of cash which regular person doesn't have anyway.

Call it Crazy says

GraooGra says

Today this same house sold for $140k more than I offered and $100k more than selling price !!!

Tell me why we would have such a catastrophic downturn when everybody drinks that 'cool-aid' again?

Because one house or one situation doesn't make a trend!! Take a step back and look at the BIG picture in the COMPLETE country, not just your little local area of CA!!

I know. Our neighbors and friends are telling us "don't worry. If we were to buy our own house today we wouldn't be able to afford it".
It is still something you are yearning for and start obsess about after a while, especially if it is impossible to get.

GraooGra says

Times are so crazy right now that I really need some kind of faith to stay rational myself. Just convince me some more. I'm losing it...seriously!

I saw your comment in my email, wanted to reply, and then discovered we are neighbors along the 101 corridor.

I am just as perplexed why properties along the 101 corridor from Ventura to Los Angeles are still higher priced than even other California cities. Price certain Orange County cities, Long Beach, and San Diego and you will see for yourself.

True, and apartment is an address, but I do 'want' a small property here.

For whatever it is worth, I have looked online for 3 years, with prices slowly declining in the low end, the pitiful offererings from the banks, and have not once even come close to 'wanting' to put in an offer. For my job, I would need to stay in this area.

Enlarge chart for excitement.
We will never drop to 110 much less 100 because house values only rise.LOL

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/07/updating-the-case-shiller-100-chart-forecast/

HEY YOU says

Enlarge chart for excitement.
We will never drop to 110 much less 100 because house values only rise.LOL

And also for your entertainment, it wasn't long ago, Mr. Patrick was considered: "Three years ago, plenty of folks considered Patrick Killelea to be a loony tune raving about real estate Armageddon."

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/09/24/BUKCS4NNB.DTL&ao=all

Nothing has really changed regarding the flim/flam aspect of the housing market, it's as dishonest a trade/business as ever, especially with 5-10% foreign investment coming in, on top of the investors the banks have lined up.

It's a game of capital, having connections, and having piles of money sitting around, you either got it or you don't.

APOCALYPSEFUCK isFrank Sinatra says

This guy Lanning shit on the Poobah. Never forget.

Oh! Matt Lanning, he is 'in' the article, one of the criminal psychopaths, got it! thanks, fuck him.

Margaret Has A HorseFace says

Sideways with a utility pole.

LOL! The scum. I don't need to know what he did, he's dog meat..

GraooGra says

I went to the open house this weekend. Nice community built in 1995. At that time there were selling these new homes for $245k (2,700 sq ft). Prices in 2005 were at $845k and now they are at $715k. I don't think they would ever go to 1995 prices but how much you think they would sell for when that bubble bursts completly?

I think that median family income in that area is close to or a little bit over $100k.

I still cannot imagine that these houses would go down as much as to $300k - $350k.

wait or buy elsewhere, these prices do not reflect a sane market. 10 year of inflation perhaps, but now; no.

Foreclosures are starting to spike. Maybe the banks finally figured out that loan mods don't work, and letting underwater owners squat for eternity isn't a profitable business model:
http://money.cnn.com/2012/06/14/real_estate/foreclosures/index.htm?hpt=hp_t2

Yup, it's simple really. They can pretend things are good on the books by keeping the bad non-performing assets, or actually make money by foreclosing and turning them into performing assets by selling them at market value to people who can actually afford the house.

This choice would be easy for any private enterprise not receiving billions of dollars in government welfare money.

tatupu70 says

Margaret Has A HorseFace says

Whatchya think about that

I think I'm wasting my time with a troll.

Definitely juvenile trolls under the age of 12 and with the analytical skills of a slug. At least Call it Crazy backs up his/her arguments.

Call it Crazy says

I'm still waiting for Tat to back up his....

What are you looking for? I usually post links to back up my facts...

whenever there is a buying mania it's a safe bet to say that there is another bubble in the making... the current buying mania is reminiscent of the heady days of 2004, it definitely does not signify normal sustainable demand.

These are investors trying to make a quick buck gambling that prices will rise OR buyers on the fence thinking they will be priced out forever if they don't act now. We have seen both groups in the bubble that elapsed and we know what happened to the market after that.

Call it Crazy, small favor if possible, but could you stop quoting tatupu70? I originally ignored him because he was turning a lot of threads into bull vs bear troll arguments, I'm not saying his points aren't valid for consideration, but I'm trying to cut down on the clutter so I can read non-emotional-troll post. But since you've been quoting him it's like the arguments are starting all over again.

I think you add a lot to the discussions here, but the petty arguments get tiresome.

Goran_K says

I'm not saying his points aren't valid for consideration, but I'm trying to cut down on the clutter so I can read non-emotional-troll post. But since you've been quoting him it's like the arguments are starting all over again.
I think you add a lot to the discussions here, but the petty arguments get tiresome.

Yes, it's much easier to read posts from only those who agree with you.

Unfortuntately, you'll find that you will be caught off guard quite frequently.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groupthink

Call it Crazy says

Sorry, I keep telling myself to ignore him but then he states something nuts

Really? Something nuts? Could you please show me one example of anything I've said that could be possibly be interpreted as "nuts"?