patrick.net

Robert is clearly correct. Mortgage rates are into the 2% range people! I guy I know did a refi at 2.78 and rates are lower today.

I'm not happy about rock bottom rates and CD paying 1% - but this is what the people in charge decided to do to - the US is like china a lot now - run like a corporation and connected businesses never fail. At least we still have internet porn! :-)

Nice analysis Roberto. I'm hoping this is just an intermission before another leg down. But I can only hope. It would be great to add to the portfolio....

we are seeing more mixed results than outright increases across the board in BA... Some people said mid 200s wouldnt happen in the Bay Area.. but that is what happened in Contra Costa..

Contra Costa $255,000 $295,000 up 15.7%

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2012/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay120614.aspx

robertoaribas says

In Phoenix this has actually been extreme

You were very lucky to have the media put so much attention in Az regarding the overbuilding and speculation. Hum! Recently, how many Californians did move to Az ? many im sure.

I dont belive KPFK, those people are using scare tactics to get thier agenda passed. (so far its working!) and so since the deadbeat loanowners 'cannot be foreclosed upon, ever'(thats thier agenda) we are seeing them WIN - they got prices to go back up by letting deadbeats get underwater refi, mods galore, 3 years to foreclose.

The liberals want higher house prices and are winning. weird huh.

PockyClipsNow says

agenda

Agenda? They are a poor little radio station that has to beg for funds to keep the lights on.

I take my news where I can get it.

PockyClipsNow says

I dont belive KPFK, those people are using scare tactics to get thier agenda passed. (so far its working!) and so since the deadbeat loanowners 'cannot be foreclosed upon, ever'(thats thier agenda) we are seeing them WIN - they got prices

ditto.. yes, thats pretty much it.. in fact i doubt you will hear them talk about homes being over priced to begin with. I think even their listeners will point that out. Fact is they dont talk about past prices in SF BA..

David9 says

Agenda? They are a poor little radio station that has to beg for funds to keep the lights on.

Poor little radio station or the CA state gov.. they have doubled down on bubbles.. Stock Bubble, RE Bubble, and even Education Bubble.

They too complain about education cuts, yet not once have they questioned .. WHY have costs of Education gone up ?

But they are good at PAY ME, GIVE ME.. Its my human rights !

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says

The banks thought they were being clever by getting the accounting rules shifted.

Its not the Banking or Accounting issue.. its the issue of Consumers not asking. Why am I paying 200-300% vs a few years ago ? Since when is this normal ?

But they actually believed in 20-50% appreciation in the long term.

thomas.wong1986 says

radio station

I wasn't endorsing the radio station or a perceived general viewpoint of the radio station listeners, just one hour of programming on housing.

I get my news where I can, including here, which is a blog.

Robert is absolutely correct! I have posted here in late March, early April about the difficulty I was having finding a home. I am still looking and have put in several offers, so many I don't want to take the time to count. I am extremely frustrated trying to locate a home that meets my criteria. Yes there are some homes that I have seen drop in price, but these are the ones no one wants. Except when the price drops low enough for a cash investor to snatch up. I have continually been out bid or late to make an offer because there are multiple offers and they are no longer excepting. I was the first and only person to see a home, I immediately submitted my offer $11,000 over asking price, it was excepted and sent to the bank for approval. The owner hired a short sale Lawyer who was going to help speed up the process. The bank sold the loan to another bank, we resubmitted to new bank, then one day the owner got a knock on the door, the bank foreclosed on the owner without giving notice making my contract offer void. I hit the market again a month later, and prices have increased even more.

I am so sooo upset. I can't believed the crap I qualify for in my price point. If I would have started my search aggressively six months ago, I would have saved myself $50,000 - $100,000. This is no Joke.

To those that are talking crap to Robert, just shut up!

Your are complete idiots! You know nothing. If you knew anything you would have been able to predict this stupid upswing. I believed the majority of you big mouths on this site and waited, thinking that prices would go farther down. When you are actively looking for a home then you can talk. I hate what is happening, and hope that something changes. But there are so many investors out there. I wouldn't be surprised if it isn't the banks buying up all these homes. There is very little inventory. Also manipulated by the banks.

Carolyn, my wife and I are in the same predicament as you (same area in fact). It's clear from you tone that you are being led by your emotions. This is never a good thing when it comes to buying a house (well, except for the seller and the real estate agents). Please take a breath and start looking at the bigger picture.

We've been looking to buy a house since 2002 and it seems house prices always tick up around this time of year. There are a few other factors leading into the price increase you are noticing, and as we get closer to the election you will probably see some other wacky fluctuations in price.

Point being, expect to be discouraged over the next few months, but keep watching for signs that pricing continues it's slow trend lower starting sometime in early 2013:)

Carolyn C,
I've been in the same situation for 19 mos. RealtyTrac & Zillow will show foreclosures. RealtyTrac shows foreclosures for sale & foreclosures that aren't on the market. You can compare these to resales through MLS in your area. Do not get upset.
Remain persistent. A good rule to follow is: Never have an EMOTIONAL attachment to a house. Another rule:Your looking for a deal, not to make the seller or bank any money. This is business not morality.

As far as advice from comment sections, don't take them as gospel. Including mine.

Thanks for the advice.

E-man says

SophiesChoice says

but keep watching for signs that pricing continues it's slow trend lower starting sometime in early 2013:)

So you expect these same homes to drop $50k-$100k by early next year. It would be fantastic if you're correct. What if you're wrong? Wouldn't you be better off now had you bought in 2002?

Learn from your victory. Prosper from your failure.

In Pleasanton, I don't know, but it could happen fairly quick in Dublin/San Ramon as 50K is just a 10% drop on a lot of the current inventory. Plus there are a lot of townhomes / condos in that area which fluctuate greatly and could put pricing pressure on the SFH's.

Also, for me I wouldn't have been better off if I bought in 2002 although my situation is probably atypical of the average BA buyer. At the time I was too young and would have overpaid for a 2bd in a somewhat bad school district (it almost happened twice). Fast forward to 2012 and now I have 2 kids and know the added value that location can bring. If I had bought in 2002 the timing would have put us trying to sell a 2br right after the 08 crash. Might have been a wash on the sale price, but I would have lost my equity / Down payment. instead it's been investing and growing for the last 10 years.

Like I said, I think things will start to slide in 2013 but it might be a long slow slog as we find bottom and bounce along for a decade or so.

Everything is being thrown at housing to make prices rise. Simply wait this temporary situation out and prices will resume their fall. Mortgage rates rose this week and huge tax increases are coming in january. Time is the buyers friend.

Strategic Renter says

Everything is being thrown at housing to make prices rise. Simply wait this temporary situation out and prices will resume their fall. Mortgage rates rose this week and huge tax increases are coming in january. Time is the buyers friend.

This post pretty much sums up the situation, much better than the OP (with all respect of course).

The fed is propping up prices with low interest and help with closing costs which make buying a house cheaper, in order to get this basicly free money you have to buy a house,

California real estate tax incentivizes not selling your house if you have owned long term, live in huge house and sell and scale down costs actually can go up, so why hassle with selling and moving when you are doing fine as is. If they need money then they sell if they have enough they stay.

The banks know more supply means less money so don't expect a huge tsunami of houses out of them, but you can count on a steady flow unless they sell them all to investors in bulk to rent.

I think with rising prices there is still a good group of sellers who will get pushed onto the market. so I think there will still be a oscillation up and down in prices right now we are in the up.

DEAD. CAT. BOUNCE.