patrick.net

He is right on some things but has been wrong on timing these events quite often.

Edit: he is claiming 2012 will be when the next major blow up happens in that article. I don't know about that personally...only around 5 months left in the year. I think the US/EU/world will keep going sideways for a year or 2 more before something big happens. While its obvious that something has to give currently most governments are still able to engage in quite a bit of rule twisting and competitive devaluation. A major disruption in a government's ability to do either of those 2 things at all or effectively will likely be the next trigger for another Global Financial Crisis, or rather another major leg downwards in the current one depending on your POV.

His one major success was calling the top of the housing bubble fairly accurately. That he did so in a very public setting while getting razzed by the "news" team and NAR spokesmen gained him some notoriety too.

If a person is constantly calling for a crash, they will eventually be "right."

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

To be fair though, I wouldn't be surprised if the EuroFiasco triggered another meltdown.

At some point there will be a giant economic crash, we all see it coming. Debt is growing, liabilities are growing, economy is sliding... it's not looking good long term.

Ron Paul was very right when he said we have to end the "welfare warfare state".

wthrfrk80 says

If a person is constantly calling for a crash, they will eventually be "right."

Except Peter Schiff isn't one of those crackpot forum trolls who is always calling for a crash, he's one of the most credible economist of the past decade as he was completely right about gold, and is one of the few individuals who actually called the 2000s housing crash leading up to the height of the real estate bubble when everyone was in "buy buy buy" mode.

He was wrong about interest rates rising, but that's only because no one could predict the suicidal ZIRP policy the FED eventually implemented when this crash was taking place. In a normal, unmolested economy, interest rates would rise.

Here he is in 2005 schooling the CEO of Mcgraw-Hill about the actual state of the economy. Actually his analysis still kind of holds true even today which shows how much growth has actually occurred in the economy the past 10 years:
http://www.B035vl7u-hg

Here he is at the beginning of 2006 schooling a Harvard economist about the housing bubble:
http://www.MIFGfgKHrwU

In 2006, he was already talking about the economy crashing hard, and the housing bubble when it was still a minority opinion, he even predicted it would last for many years as he schools a former Reagan economic adviser in this video:
http://www.LfascZSTU4o

Plus, everything he's said in the article (QE making the economy sick, weak employment indicators, risk on treasury bonds and the dollar, etc) is based on solid fundamentals.

When it comes down to it, if you had listened to Peter Schiff in 2004-2006, you would have saved and made a lot of money.

wthrfrk80 says

If a person is constantly calling for a crash, they will eventually be "right."

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

To be fair though, I wouldn't be surprised if the EuroFiasco triggered another meltdown.

Peter Schiff should follow me back and forth to the data center in Sunnyvale. It sure as hell doesn't look like a collapse is coming from what I see.

Goran_K says

dividend stocks, gold to protect yourself from inflation... this decade will be worse than the 70s or 80s.. ."

He was right about gold.... but for the wrong reason, not sure that gives him much credibility. I am still waiting for the hyper inflation he predicted 10 years ago.

rdm says

He was right about gold.... but for the wrong reason, not sure that gives him much credibility. I am still waiting for the hyper inflation he predicted 10 years ago.

It's not his fault that he couldn't predict that the U.S government would throw every single cent of tax payer money, and the FED printing press into its QE measures. Who could have done that? If you told that to someone in 2002, they might look for your tin foil hat, yet... here we are.

Also, you don't think the U.S is creating inflationary pressure right now by buying its down debt, therefore decreasing the value of the dollar which in turn makes commodities cheaper in foreign currency, which drives prices higher?

If not for the massive amounts of privately held debt creating deflationary pressure, we might actually have hyper inflation, instead of the "stagflation" we have currently.

He may not have predicted when the inflation would occur (no one is perfect), but the FED through QE measures is creating the seeds for the dooms day scenario he described back in 2002.

In fact, I personally think it's much worse than what he described back in 2002 because of how much weaker and less stable the financial institutions are now compared to back then.

*puts on tin foil hat*

Goran_K says

he couldn't predict that the U.S government would throw every single cent of tax payer money, and the FED printing press into its QE measures. Who could have done that?

True, which leads to the point, that economic predictions should always be taken with a "grain of salt." These guys are not true soothsayers merely economists full of ideas, guesses and not the least prejudices which color their predictions.

It's not possible to call a top or bottom exactly, except in hindsight.

Peter Schiff is another moron. 8 out of 10 times he is wrong.

rootvg says

Peter Schiff should follow me back and forth to the data center in Sunnyvale.

Well, I know Cisco just froze a lot ifs travel.

JodyChunder says

rootvg says

Peter Schiff should follow me back and forth to the data center in Sunnyvale.

Well, I know Cisco just froze a lot ifs travel.

Our travel has been semi frozen for years. You can't go anywhere without the CIO signing off on it.

Just some info on Schiff's investments and predictions:

Use this link provided by CL.

Below is Shedlock's list covering 12 Ways Schiff Was Wrong in 2008

* Wrong about hyperinflation
* Wrong about the dollar
* Wrong about commodities except for gold
* Wrong about foreign currencies except for the Yen
* Wrong about foreign equities
* Wrong in timing
* Wrong in risk management
* Wrong in buy and hold thesis
* Wrong on decoupling
* Wrong on China
* Wrong on US treasuries
* Wrong on interest rates, both foreign and domestic

rootvg says

Our travel has been semi frozen for years. You can't go anywhere without the CIO signing off on it.

Well they just froze a lot more of it. Cisco and some other jockeys got they tit in the wringer but are not gonna holler about it.

This link may work, TT
http://tinyurl.com/7j7dq5h

The list of things seem to reflect a libertarian's goggles!

CL says

This link may work, TT
http://tinyurl.com/7j7dq5h

Thanks. The other one works if you do a manual cut and paste of the full link. For some reason the clickable link stops at the "!"

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says

Hey, is cannibal anarchy all that hard to predict when face-eating incidents are hitting the papers every week?

I know a boy what et his dog down in Waco Texas. Dog was alive and all.

More to come!!!

dunnross says

December 2000: Alan Greenspan

Isn't Greenspan a Rand Acolyte? What did he do that would make you consider him Keynesian?

CL says

Isn't Greenspan a Rand Acolyte? What did he do that would make you consider him Keynesian?

That's the biggest deception if there ever was one. It's undeniable that both Greenspan and Bernanke completely betrayed everything Rand stood for. Even the Rand Institute president says so:

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/alan-greenspan-betrayed-ayn-rand-ruined-economy-says-124734929.html

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says

Greenspan is an Austrian School fucktard.

He needs to be fucked in the ass, beheaded and eaten by a starving neonazi who's done being told a 3/2 in Flint should be $350,000 and he can buy it and raise a family on a $4.45 an hour WalMart job - or just start a hedge fund.

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says

WOW! Did you take this picture?

Yes, he did. That's how he got the idea that they loved each other.

Goran_K says

what's the big deal in him predicting that real estate would collapse in 2002?

Since you made an NBA analogy upthread, I'll do the same. In 2004, Mark Cuban of the Dallas Mavs let Steve Nash leave his team because he didn't think he could play for a high level. The following year Steve Nash became the league's MVP and 8 years later is still playing elite basketball. If Steve Nash starts breaking down and playing poorly next year, can you really say that Mark Cuban was spot on in his prediction?

Obviously Bernanke has been wrong many times, and after reading the articles posted upthread, it seems like the only thing Schiff was correct about was gold. I mean timing is everything right? What's the point in calling it a bubble if you can't call the or bottom.

Goran_K since you're defending Schiff and go as far as calling him an oracle, what do you think of the article posted by tinytina. Seems pretty clear to me that's he's wrong at least as often as he's right.

http://tinyurl.com/7j7dq5h