patrick.net

Intrest rates are about 25% lower than 2010.

Thus prices are that much higher.

Simple math.

Anecdote: there is a "white elephant" house near me. Built on spec, never sold, finally foreclosed on, still empty. While it was listed for sale, the price varied from $2.9 mil to $3.9 mil. It's called fishing. Sellers around the bay area always seem to be looking for suckers. Don't be one.

I would still like to buy if the numbers pencil out for me. But what I won't do is get caught up in hype either way - I won't go to outrageous lengths to buy something that doesn't make fiscal sense, and I won't wait forever for a price that is 'cheap' and just won't come around here. It has to be an acceptable place to live for a price I am willing to pay - i.e. somewhere in the same universe as the lifestyle I enjoy and numbers I pay for rent.

leo9 says

There is VERY BIG bubble forming again.

Forming again? California is still a massive bubble. $550k for 1500 sq. ft townhouse is insane. You could buy that same place in a nice neighborhood for 1/4 that price anywhere else.

I feel bad for anyone trying to scrap by in California. You pay a fortune for housing, and because the state is epically broke, they will eventually start taxing you to death. I hope a couple extra sunny days a year is worth fighting to keep your head above water.

Facebook man Facebook.
It was the third shoe.

DON'T BUY IN FOSTER CITY. THE PLACE IS UNDER SEA-LEVEL AND HAS A BIKE PATH FOR PROTECTION!!!

Listing price does not mean anything. How about analyzing comp sales to see where the market is heading compared to 2010.

Wife and I were in the same boat. Whether this is a bubble or not, I have no clue. But at least here in the east bay it seemed that things changed really quick. Over the winter houses were just sitting. By the time we started looking in the Spring suddenly houses started selling and inventory totally dried up.

Inventory now is the biggest problem. There's a few guesses as to why. One is that those who bought in the boom and had to sell already sold or foreclosed. The rest can afford to keep their homes but they're also heavily underwater. So they don't sell and thus there's less supply, which means there are less homes to bid on and so the resulting competition makes it feel like a bubble.

We got sort of lucky and won the house we wanted, but it was definitely not an easy situation.

As far as the areas around Silicon Valley, well the situation there sounds like a whole different story- as too is SF...

RentingForHalfTheCost says

DON'T BUY IN FOSTER CITY. THE PLACE IS UNDER SEA-LEVEL AND HAS A BIKE PATH FOR PROTECTION!!!

I heard they don't even have a high school and students must be bussed into mateo.

I'm sort of unsympathetic. There's a unit for sale in Foster City for $699,000 that sold for $430k back in 2011. The question is why you didn't buy last year. You tried to time the market and failed.

Delurking says

This does not deny the possibility that rents will keep going up regardless.

unlike 1997-99 there isnt a shortage of rentals... the last time rents went up, renters picked up and moved. And your correct neither higher incomes nor new hiring are supporting higher rents...

RentingForHalfTheCost says

DON'T BUY IN FOSTER CITY. THE PLACE IS UNDER SEA-LEVEL AND HAS A BIKE PATH FOR PROTECTION!!!

I'm not kidding at all with my comment. Even 499K is a joke in Foster City. You are living in a swamp and at any time there could be a traffic jam trying to get across the lagoons and out of town. You really want to park your hard earned money in a swamp? Seriously.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/qmap/

And I thought a rent increase was bad enough.

No, rents also go up when a critical mass of the population receives larger paychecks or more cash from Mommy and Daddy -- or Ben Bernanke.

StoutFiles says

leo9 says

There is VERY BIG bubble forming again.

Forming again? California is still a massive bubble. $550k for 1500 sq. ft townhouse is insane. You could buy that same place in a nice neighborhood for 1/4 that price anywhere else.

I feel bad for anyone trying to scrap by in California. You pay a fortune for housing, and because the state is epically broke, they will eventually start taxing you to death. I hope a couple extra sunny days a year is worth fighting to keep your head above water.

It's a rat race here, and most of the good people are on the Oregon trial now. The Bay Area is getting worse and worse, since all the sane people are moving to Portland or somewhere affordable and safe. Tempted to do the same, but a lot of my elderly family members still live here, and I feel I need to be close by in case they need me.

Thomas, I usually agree with you, but it is an easily verifiable fact that rental units are in short supply in the Silicon Valley and that rents are going up. Palo Alto/Mountain View/Sunnyvale/Santa Clara all have much fewer listings than 2-4 years ago, and most listings are taken within 3-4 days. This was the exact case last summer when I was trying to find a new apartment and all of my friends and relatives that are looking to move are having a hell of a time finding anything decent in the SV for a price anywhere near what they were paying 18 months ago. The East Bay is a little better, but even that has less available inventory than a couple of years ago.

Rents in Mountain View have increased almost 30% from 18 months ago. They shot up close to 40% last summer and then backed-off ~10% since then. I know this because I live here and had to move last summer. All of the areas surrounding the high-paying job centers are fucking insane right now. At least around here, wages easily support the rents, which sucks because they can probably go up a lot more before there are serious vacancy issues. The 3BR unit I used to rent with roommates was $2312 a year. They tried to crank it up to $2560 last summer and I left to get a place with my fiancee. New leases on my old unit were $3400 and it filled instantly, along with much of the rest of the complex. I couldn't believe it, but if you are a Googler pulling $130k+ base salary (which anyone technical at Google probably will per ex-coworkers that went there), even the $2400 a month the place is now asking for a 1BR seems like no big deal. It is ludicrous, but there are more than enough willing and able tenants at that price point.

BMWman,

Wow. I'm in the wrong business. I'm making like $10/hour now. Is anyone willing to offer E-man a $50/hour job? :0)

I'm looking into the "Equity Buyout" business model right now. It's a little cut throat under some circumstances, but it does make sense under some circumstances especially on properties that have encumbrances. We'll see how that works out. Live only once. Might as well try it. Haha.

E-man,

What you are doing may pay less now, but it is probably something that you don't need to "retire" from since it resembles self-employment, and you can live off of it later. Hire a property manager and live with paying some of the rental income for that, or just sell the properties and you'll be set until you die.

Us tech slaves, on the other hand, are replaceable by college-grads for 1/2 to 2/3 the pay by the time we hit 45 because college grads will work harder and longer. You have to really be on your game, or make your way into upper management, if you want to have job security to even age 65. The techies that aren't stashing 50%+ of their pay into 401k's and savings are going to be flipping burgers or just plain fucked when "retirement" comes along. Working in high tech is a sucker's game unless your long term strategy includes self employment of some fashion. I've only been out of school for 5 years and in this industry, but that's the impression I get. So, maybe I am way off.

bmwman91 says

So, maybe I am way off.

Take a look at the age mix of your coworkers and that will tell you your future, assuming things don't get any worse from here.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=953

What would the annual property taxes be on a $680,000 property in this city?

American in Japan says

What would the annual property taxes be on a $680,000 property in this city?

Times it by 1.25% & you should be in the ball park. Yep, $8,500/year. :)

leo9 says

We saw a townhouse in a foster city - 2bd 2 bath 1500 sqft which was selling for $550K in 2010. Now in the same community similar houses are getting listed for $680 plus. Few weeks ago in the same community there was listing for 2db 2 bath same floor plan. I do not remember the listing price but it got sold for $628k. Seriously ??

You shouldn't have tried to "time" the market. Instead your timing should have been determined by finding a house you love and can afford. (are comfortable with the mortgage payment).

But of course when you listen to the doomers here that guarantee you 1975 prices coming soon, I don't blame you for not pulling the trigger. I guess a big part of life is to figure out who to listen to.

As of right now it does not look like 1975 prices are on the horizon. If you want to buy a house, figure out what you can afford and go and get one. You missed the absolute bottom but so what? Do you want to wait another 10 years and keep wasting money on rent?

BTW, we recently had our home appraised for refi and it came back $125k more than what we paid for in Jan 2011. Quite frankly, we "cleaned" (paint, new floors), updated a bunch of stuff but maybe $20k worth of things. Pretty nuts!

SubOink says

BTW, we recently had our home appraised for refi and it came back $125k more than what we paid for in Jan 2011. Quite frankly, we "cleaned" (paint, new floors), updated a bunch of stuff but maybe $20k worth of things. Pretty nuts!

You said it wrong. You should have said "pretty nice." After all, it feels good when you make the right decision.

Well I am going to just save up cash and then expat overseas and retire at 50-60 and not worry about the bay area insanity.

bmwman91 says

tech slaves... that aren't stashing 50%+ of their pay into 401k's and savings are going to be flipping burgers or just plain fucked when "retirement" comes along. ... maybe I am way off.

Well I dunno about the 50%+ part, but other than that you are spot on. Another way to manage the situation besides socking away money is to keep a low cost living, like, don't pay Fortress Prices.
Something you did not mention is how the employment culture that you mentioned can bring out the worst in the worst of people. If you raise your kids in The Fortress then their kids will be your kids' peer group. Is that the environment you want your kids to come of age with?

B.A.C.A.H. says

Well I dunno about the 50%+ part, but other than that you are spot on. Another way to manage the situation besides socking away money is to keep a low cost living, like, don't pay Fortress Prices.
Something you did not mention is how the employment culture that you mentioned can bring out the worst in the worst of people. If you raise your kids in The Fortress then their kids will be your kids' peer group. Is that the environment you want your kids to come of age with?

I have shown my fiancee the breakdown of things (gotta love MS Excel) and basically the choices come down to:
1) Buy a house in the Bay Area with a commute of 30 minutes or less
2) Retire someday

We would have all of our money tied up in our house. "That's great, you can sell it someday, downsize and live off the proceeds." Well, not great. I don't want to move into a condo to die. It would be better overall to buy the house I want in a place I am less in love with so that I can keep my garage and continue woodworking and tinkering until I die. Buying a BA house with a 1 hour commute, vs 30 minutes, sucks since that comes out to losing 10 hours of time per week (6 weeks of vacation per year) and that seems to defeat the purpose of living in a nice area to me.

As far as the "fortress schools" thing, I am 100% with you. I wouldn't want my kids around that. The high pressure academic stuff is BS, and honestly, I would not want to interact with the far-left holistic Whole Foods crowd found all around the peninsula at school PTA meetings & the like. I'm too middle-ground politically, and discipline is something that I think kids desperately need (which is an obvious reason that I would have trouble parenting on the peninsula). Heck, the fact that more and more kids in peninsula schools aren't vaccinated against some very nasty things is reason enough to go somewhere else.

Anyway, as I think we've discussed in other threads, my target would be parochial school. Not the $$$$$ "pay someone else to do the parenting" stuff you seemed to think of, but a place where the teachers can dispense discipline and kids have to wear uniforms. The schools that I went to required "boots on the ground parenting" as you say it, and wouldn't have been much good without the parental involvement that they had. It seems like mostly the same thing as the good public schools, except the teachers are given authority to discipline kids since that is sort of what you pay for there. Uniforms are important in my opinion, too, since it eliminates one inane social status thing (fashion) from the environment.

Thanks for all the comments. What is the average salary of a couple in a bay area ? To afford a house in $700 - $800 k range once should atleast earn $200 - $250k. Seriously are people really earning this salary ?

hrhjuliet says

It's a rat race here, and most of the good people are on the Oregon trial now. The Bay Area is getting worse and worse, since all the sane people are moving to Portland or somewhere affordable and safe. Tempted to do the same, but a lot of my elderly family members still live here, and I feel I need to be close by in case they need me.

I totally agree. I really feel that pressure of earning more and more just to keep a normal frugal lifestyle. No matter how much you earn in bay area it is not enough. $100k has no value any more. If you are single you should at-least make $130K plus. If you married then $200 - $250k just to live frugal life style. Everything is damn expensive. House, day care, restaurants, etc. I love bay area but there is too much pressure to earn more and more just to survive.

leo9 says

Thanks for all the comments. What is the average salary of a couple in a bay area ? To afford a house in $700 - $800 k range once should atleast earn $200 - $250k. Seriously are people really earning this salary ?

Leo,

Based on what I have seen here and else where in other countries, I believe real estate will only get more and more expensive after each boom-bust cycle. Remember that the top 10% of the population owns 70% of the wealth. If you think it is expensive now, it will be very very expensive looking back 30 years from now. Of course it is only my observation.

Take Roberto Aribas for an example. He sold 4 properties at the top & bought 12 properties and still counting at the bottom of the market. Guess what would likely happen during the next cycle? There's a good chance that he would unload these 12 properties near or at the top only to buy 24 to 30 properties back at the bottom.

The people that have been buying, with all cash or 25%-30% down, are the ones that sold at the top. Unlike the speculators that invested with 100% financing during the bubble years, some of these investors have been investing through 3 to 4 RE cycles so they have seen this episode several times before. It will be interesting how this episode will play out, but more than likely, it won't be different this time.

With money being so cheap right now, you might want to consider hedging your bet by buying with a low down payment and keep most of the cash. If hyperinflation hit first, you can pay off your mortgage with worthless money. If deflation hit first, cash is king. You can mail in the keys to your lender, and buy another house for 1/4 - 1/2 the cost with all cash. The caveat is that, what if we keep muddle along with 2% growth year over year and interest rate keeps on drifting lower? Don't you think the current homeowner would refinance & keep getting a lower monthly payment?

When we bought at 8% in the 90's, everyone said interest rate was cheap. Now it's at 3.5% & we only owe $155k on the house. We're in the process of refinancing right now to a 15-year fixed mortgage at 3.125%. Our payment will be less than $1,100/month with a huge chunk going toward the principal. The equivalent house is renting for $2,700-$2,800 in North Valley.

Just my 2 cents.

E-man says

Quite frankly, we "cleaned" (paint, new floors), updated a bunch of stuff but maybe $20k worth of things. Pretty nuts!

This is because you are one smart cookie and you spent you $$$$ on a house instead of something risky and slow to reward like a business concept or a small franchise. Thanks to the government, the HOUSE as ATM is back and you are in on the secret. In one more year I bet you it will appraise for another 150K. Only seriously dumbass thing you are doing is sitting on your big flat hairy butt. If you was real smart like your big brother Jody, you would buy another such fabulous house. And another. And another after that until you have a empire. You think too small. Quit typing about it and Suck that $$$ out NOW! Suck at it like it is deadly venom in a boomslang bite and you gotta get it outta they beforing it rots you up and kills you!

You are wasting time and time is $$$$. Honest honest, you LISTEN to Chunder and you'll be eating lobster for breakfast also.

DukeLaw says

I'm sort of unsympathetic. There's a unit for sale in Foster City for $699,000 that sold for $430k back in 2011. The question is why you didn't buy last year. You tried to time the market and failed.

That is right. You FAILED to speculate like us champions! you better get with it dude. the gravy is hot you better dip your bread in theres.

E-man says

Wow. I'm in the wrong business. I'm making like $10/hour now. Is anyone willing to offer E-man a $50/hour job? :0)

I am serious. Get your raggedy flag-waving ass out here to the desert, and I'll put you to work cutting and shaping steel and aluminum pipe for 17 an hour (under the table) Hard hot and often miserable work BUT felxible hours, free frozen yoghurts on Fridays and you will FINALLY have some hair on your tits. let me know. ( my employees love me

E-man says

Based on what I have seen here and else where in other countries, I believe real estate will only get more and more expensive after each boom-bust cycle.

Yeah that makes total and complete sense. I totally get you. It is totally unpopular to say the following but I also think some form of slavery will make a comeback also because it was just too much of an economic boon, you know? I mean, come on. It was only a matter of time. Robots is too far off for us to wait for that kinda deal.

leo9 says

I love bay area but there is too much pressure to earn more and more just to survive.

Victorville never looked better bud. Once we get the DesertExpress through here it's all over. Get a leg up on the coming inflows.

$46 per sq ft for a 4000 sq ft mansion: CANNOT BE BEAT.

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/12525-Dos-Palmas-Rd-Victorville-CA-92392/69013150_zpid/

and local talent and entertainment which is free for all to enjoy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-SQFw12-vg&feature=related

StoutFiles says

No one here is arguing that investors who have a bankroll can make out like bandits by buying and renting. It's the people that put all they have into buying one house to live in that are getting screwed. A lot can change in 30 years.

Actually I will be upfront. I plan to unload all of my SFH holdings by the end of the next six to eight years. Multifamily units are going to be the place to be - I am now currently looking at nothing smaller than a quadplex. I will eventually downsize myself from all my luxuries and divets myself of most of my more sumptuous trappings like my silk duvet and my REAL ZEBRA rug and probably live in a unit in one of my quads. I am also interested in small niche businesses like tattoo and body hair removal. Also, affordable area rugs.

By the ways, nobody buys and holds ANYTHING for 30 years. Specially not any more these days. They might think they going to, but forget it. I agree with you that, among other things, buyers are neither solvent, liquid or creditworthy enough to buy (and as some bright bulbs on here have professed to doing, willingly overbid by what is likely an entire years salary for them outside of anywhere other than Sillycon Valley) and hold that heavy note for even 15 years. They'll be crying poor in ten years and looking for they bailout. It's a different game from here on out, kids .. Hard hard times. at least for the next generation or so. I will be fine tho. $$$$

JodyChunder says

Only seriously dumbass thing you are doing is sitting on your big flat hairy butt

How did you know about my flat hairy butt???

E-man says

SubOink says

BTW, we recently had our home appraised for refi and it came back $125k more than what we paid for in Jan 2011. Quite frankly, we "cleaned" (paint, new floors), updated a bunch of stuff but maybe $20k worth of things. Pretty nuts!

You said it wrong. You should have said "pretty nice." After all, it feels good when you make the right decision.

Learn from your victory. Prosper from your failure.

All subjective. Until you sell, you never really know what your house is worth. To me a house in Foster City is not even worth the hassle for free. I'd be worried about the liability of my belongings floating around and hurting people trying to kayak to safety during the big one. I'd probably use it as a weekend home or rent it out, but to live. Crazy.

SubOink says

How did you know about my flat hairy butt???

It could be worse! ; )

I am surprised and shocked by seeing this trend in Foster City too.
In just last 2-3 weeks, inventory has totally dried up and prices for a condo / town home are 100 - 250 K more that what they were 1 month back.
What happened in just one month? A 1080 Sq. Ft. condo is listed in 485K which was sold in 345K 1 month back.

Another condo listed in 700 K which was sold in 430K one year. ago.

Can someone explain this bubble? what is driving this crazy prices?
Is it only Foster city or other cities too in bay area?

Can we expect to see prices coming down to its normal range?

Thanks

You have been priced out. Forever. You knew it was going to happen but you sat on your hands. Time to move to Baltimore.