patrick.net
An Antidote to Corporate Media
1,264,134 comments by 15,107 users - Blue, clambo, HeadSet online now
invite responseComments 1 - 29 of 29 Search these comments
The last thing I want to see is potential obama voters being complacent and reading polls saying he's way out ahead, and then staying home for the election. I despise obama, but less so then mitt, and what with the possibility of gop taking control of the senate, I'm fine with the devil we know in obama running the show, while the gop is in charge.
That and I am betting on obama every chance I get, what with these cheap prices
I think that none of this is exactly compelling evidence. There will probably be the most sway in opinion once the actual debates begin. As of now, neither candidate has mentioned specifics in regards to what they plan on doing to fix the economy.
As of now, neither candidate has mentioned specifics in regards to what they plan on doing to fix the economy.
I think it will really heat up when all the 527 groups and soft money start to dictate some of the dialogue between the campaigns. That is always the most entertaining.
freak80
2012 Jul 30, 6:22am
"I've voting changed anything, they'd make it illegal."
Seriously who cares who wins at this point? It's all about the money.
During the primaries when Ron Paul was there, Romney talked about getting the government out of the housing business.
I have always been a Democrat, but if Romney would show that he would act on getting government out of housing I might even vote for him.
I have always been a Democrat, but if Romney would show that he would act on getting government out of housing I might even vote for him.
I agree, I would love to see some strong statements about government getting out of housing and let the market get back to something that resembles a free one.
freak80
2012 Jul 30, 6:38am
I agree, I would love to see some strong statements about government getting out of housing and let the market get back to something that resembles a free one.
I'm sure Romney would have no problem telling you exactly what you want to hear, so that you vote for him.
Then, once in office, he'll do the exact opposite.
That's politics.
I'm sure Romney would have no problem telling you exactly what you want to hear, so that you vote for him.
Then, once in office, he'll do the exact opposite.
That's politics.
Come on, no faith in politics?
Rent4Ever says
I agree, I would love to see some strong statements about government getting out of housing and let the market get back to something that resembles a free one.
I'm sure Romney would have no problem telling you exactly what you want to hear, so that you vote for him.
Then, once in office, he'll do the exact opposite.
That's politics.
I would only vote for him if he stone cold commits on this point and I don't expect him to do that.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Which poll has been scientifically proven to be the most accurate in the 2008 election? Rasmussen:
Maybe because they better qualify the participants as "likely voters." Yes I know, and Rasmussen is the poll in the news recently showing Romney leading. I know it's really unfortunate when the most accurate poll in the last election is the one at odds with your political stance.
Why are you so angry?
I'm sure all the polls on 7-30-2012 will determine the outcome of the election.
Who cares - it's a one party system. Mitt Obama or Barack Romney - your pick ;)
I'm sure all the polls on 7-30-2012 will determine the outcome of the election.
Great point, which brings me back to what I was originally saying. Obama is swinging as the incumbent, and Mitt is just doing nothing and gaining ground. This is unprecedented.
CL
2012 Jul 30, 9:17am
That's funny because 538, your own source, in 2008 and 2010 rated Rasmussen very high in their pollster rankings.
Rasmussen has gone steadily downhill, and is routinely considered an outlier. I believe Rasmussen started selling is services to groups that manipulate the questions so as to give a rightward tilt. Even with Rasmussen included, Obama leads.
Realclearpolitics is a rightwing site too. But the aggregate polling is quite good.
Rasmussen has gone steadily downhill, and is routinely considered an outlier. I believe Rasmussen started selling is services to groups that manipulate the questions so as to give a rightward tilt. Even with Rasmussen included, Obama leads.
Whatever the status of the polling, my point is that at this stage of the campaigns, an incumbent is not supposed to be statistically tied with their challenger. Obama was up a lot more just a short time ago. The gap isn't supposed to close this quickly.
My point and original post has nothing to do with the specifics of the polls. But rather that the trends of both the polls and the events of the campaign indicate a worried and panicked Obama campaign and a calm Romney Campaign. Something that Obama supporters should be concerned with and is very surprising at this stage of the game.
JodyChunder
2012 Jul 30, 9:32am
I am voting for Roseanne Barr
http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/07/real-obama-vs-fantasy-obama
CL
2012 Jul 30, 9:39am
My point and original post has nothing to do with the specifics of the polls
I thought the premise of your post was, "Look at the polls. Obama and Romney are so close, it must worry Obama and his supporters. "
I'm worried about fundraising, but I think that this could be a case of too much is too much. Extra money is always helpful, but it may not really change the trajectory of Romney's failed campaign.
And he certainly doesn't get better with experience or opportunity. Every time he talks he alienates another group he needs to broaden the base, and to therefore, win.
Given that his base already contains many shaky constituents, he's all but doomed.
CL
2012 Jul 30, 10:22am
"Cling to their guns and religion"
That, too, was out of context. But I agree even with the out-of-context quote. Desperate people DO cling to guns and religion at desperate times.
Gun-owners and religious folks would agree. What's the problem there, except for politics?
Fundraising matters, and it matters a lot, so you should be worried about that.
Fair or not, but if the economy stalls in any significant way, or unemployment goes up, Obama will have a very hard time to win and there is no way around it.
JodyChunder
2012 Jul 30, 1:04pm
Desperate people DO cling to guns and religion at desperate times.
This is true and I don't get what's so controversial about it. Just dumb. Guns and Bibles and desperation go together like cheese and crackers. Big deal.
deepcgi
2012 Jul 30, 1:21pm
I would say the left-leaning cling to their entitlements and fiat money supply.
The right leans on the fiat as well...in fact, both sides are Keynesian. I will not vote Keynesian again, because for all of my agnostic attitude, I am morally opposed to the reckless destruction of the wealth of those who primarily are the most frugal, by those who are the most foolhardy. In the economic sense, it's true that we are choosing between two of the same cloth.
JodyChunder
2012 Jul 30, 1:26pm
What we see being touted as Keynesian economic policy is a big fat bastardization of actual Keynesian policy by snot-nosed baby boomers. First off, Keynes suggested that in rich times, we salt away the better portion of our profits for the inevitable hard times. Sounds good, right? In other words, don't piss it away in a bacchanalia live-for-today manner.
He also states that his policies work best in a non-globalized economy.
freak80
2012 Jul 31, 12:11am
He also states that his policies work best in a non-globalized economy.
That's just it. Any "stimulus" we do just creates new Wal-Mart "associates" and new slave-labor jobs in China.
marcus
2012 Jul 31, 1:31am
IF you like Romney's chances, bet on him winning either in Vegas or online.
Currently you can get close to 3:2 odds. That is for every $100 you bet on Romney, you will win $140 if he wins (actually 7:5 odds)
Unfortunately, if you wanted to vote on Obama winning, you have to bet $170 to win $100.
I would be very very worried right now. For an incumbent to be essentially tied (or losing according to Rasmussen) at this early stage of the presidential campaign is almost unprecedented. And it is clearly showing in the way Obama is stumping. Incumbents are not supposed to be the candidate that goes on the attack, the challenger is. This campaign is essentially being run backwards, and that is because Romney is thrilled with his polling this early in the campaign and Obama is worried.
#politics