patrick.net

everything says

You sold it for 30% more than you paid just months ago?,

He means he sold it for 30% less than he paid just months ago.

When Buffett or Goldman comes out bullish, it means they already have a position, and most likely want to sell it to you at a higher price.

Buffett has been fully invested in housing all the way through the crash. He depends on homeowners to buy his insurance. To shop at his stores. Almost every business he has depends on a healthy real estate market.... As for personal investment, I believe Buffett owns only one home and has lived there for decades. What does that tell you about his opinion on a "home" being a sound "investment"?

Buffett has been wrong numerous times. He bought many shares going into the crash of 2008 and at points were down a good 50%. Lucky for him, he has a flock of worshipers that he can convince to buy in when he announces his position. I have no respect for him. Another connected son of a congressman....

dunnross says

E-man says

LOL! Gotta love the fact that people just keep posting guesstimated numbers & call them a fact. Got the data to back your number by any chance dunross, or was this number from some bear economist?

Yes, in fact I do. Actually, this year it's closer to 9.8M. Here is a link of someone who has taken time to analyze the data. If you have any issues with this analysis, please speak up:

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/01/michael-olenick-10-million-shadow-inventory-says-housing-market-is-a-long-way-from-the-bottom.html

Are you freaking kidding me? The author ASSume this number and ASSume that number. His numbers are more accurate than Corelogic and the Census? He said the Census spent $13B to compile the data, and his data is more accurate? How much did he spend? Talking about wishful thinking. Basically, people have no freaking clue about what the true "shadow inventory" is.

Come on, you can do better than that.

Buffet claims to be betting big on housing for a couple reasons

One, the guy LOVES the idea of circumventing capitalistic activity (risk) for free money, he can't resist the sweet monopolistic, rent-seeking honey pot

That and, he would really like to see his WFC bets realize some profits. He had been mark-to-fantasizing on his WFC holdings (the buffet rules) claiming that the stock had been undervalued, and dontcha know, here we are at all time highs. Hell, WFC is up over 50% in the last 12 months. Must be nice to be so close to the free gov money spigot

Warren Buffett called the US Secretary of the Treasury at 3am waking him out of bed. Hank not knowing who the heck was calling him was at first thinking it was his mother's butler named "Warren" but then realizing it was the richest man in America on the phone begging and crying for a bailout. The next day the bailouts begin so you know this country has been taken over by rich elitist crooks! As far as shadow inventory it must include all the homes in my area that have been playing "Musical For Sale" signs the last 5 years. One goes up, one comes down. Another sign comes down while another goes up. Then that one gets taken down after 6 months and the one you always thought was empty a sign goes up confirming your suspicions. The few homes that actually sold now have "For Rent" signs on them. The housing market is never coming back!

"The momentum effect." What a load of crap! They're name dropping but don't even say in what way Buffet is "betting big in housing." The little weasel says inventory is down and prices are up but fails to mention why. The other reporter throws in a couple of lines to make is look balanced. This report is reprehesible. Classic propaganda.

However that sort of propaganda fueled the last bubble for quite some time. All we need is easy credit and we WOULD be off to the races.

I wish I could find a way to feel good about making money off people's stupidity like these people. How does one do it? How do they live with themselves?

KILLERJANE says

Prices are rising, pulling underwater homes closer to the surface, reducing 'at risk' borrowers, lessening the shadow.

The problem is when people come out from being underwater they will be putting their houses back on the market increasing inventory and lowering prices.

KILLERJANE says

Supply demand and shit low prices

If only supply wasn't low because of underwater home owners and shadow inventory. If only demand wasn't high because of scarcity and herd mentality. If only the "shit low" prices were in line with historic appreciation rates.

ELC says

KILLERJANE says

Supply demand and shit low prices

If only supply wasn't low because of underwater home owners and shadow inventory. If only demand wasn't high because of scarcity and herd mentality. If only the "shit low" prices were in line with historic appreciation rates.

Buffett in my opinion is a CLOWN.

everything says

You sold it for 30% more than you paid just months ago?,

There is a big difference between believing something's worth 30% more and selling it for 30% more. It's the common man's version of extend and pretend.

robertoaribas says

you are of course partially wrong... If someone owes 100k, and currently their home is worth 90K, they can't sell... when the value goes up $110K, they can list it. BUT your contention that they can cause prices to drop in ridiculous, they cannot lower their price. So, they can stop prices from rising, but not cause them to fall...

I see your point but more inventory will end bidding wars. That's what been artificially boosting prices.