patrick.net

Predictions? How about current policy? "administration may turn thousands of government-owned foreclosures into rental properties to help boost falling home prices."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/10/government-foreclosures-300000-rent_n_923406.html

I think most people on this site believe there has been some tinkering with regard to home prices. There are other articles too that say the same thing.

For Romney, it would be a prediction at this point, for me anyway.

Here we go, this is the 'fact sheet' I originally found where:

" help stabilize housing prices, support neighborhoods, and provide sustainable rental housing for American families"

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/02/01/fact-sheet-president-obama-s-plan-help-responsible-homeowners-and-heal-h

I'm sure that between now & the election that 99% of homes for sale will sell including the shadow inventory. Of course home prices will skyrocket. After the election the 1% will sell & there will be nothing left to buy. Somebody please stop me!

David9 says

I personally wouldn't touch real estate until seeing what happens after the election, but that is just me.

I'd touch it just to make sure it is not wet, so when I put a match to it my next call will be to the insurance company. At these prices I might as well get out while the writing is on the wall. Why go through the hassle of having a stranger trotting through your personal belongings complaining about the flooring and the messy kitchen and bathrooms. Burn the sucker down and then use one of the many inflated appraisals you collected over the years to take it to the insurance company. Get your bar mates to be the general contractors and build up a brand new home for about 1/3rd of the appraisal. Hey, if everyone is sniffing the same glue, you might as well take some money out of this pig. The banks and realtors took it for a ride for so many years and they are continuing to try and restart the engine that could.

Call it Crazy says

1sfrenter says

David9 says

I personally wouldn't touch real estate until seeing what happens after the election, but that is just me.

Curious as to what you think will happen, in either case (Obama or Romney)?

I would also be interested to hear predictions from everyone on this question...

Real estate prices will tank over the next 2-3 years and there is not a damn thing anyone can do about it. Obama or Romney. The Chinese will only keep giving out the allowance for so long. Eventually, they will want to see something for all their generosity (huge buyer of the Greenback) and when there is nothing there they will wave and give us the middle finger. Time to grow up America. We can't live above our means forever, the crash will be swift and devastating. Imagine what will happen if people are forced to work again. Yikes

It is anyone's guess. The market is so heavily manipulated and influenced by so many parties that it could do anything. The one thing that I think we can all agree upon is that the outcome that we all want, drastically lower prices in the SFBA, won't happen. The cards are stacked against it, and the house always wins. The only way that I see it happening is if our entire financial system collapses since the system is what is keeping prices up.

If BenB gives a hot cash infusion to the cancer-riddled economy, then it will juice the stock and RE markets yet again. Interest rates can still go lower, and money can be printed to juice the economy for a little longer. We will continue to put band-aids on the economy's hemorrhaging femoral artery until we.....can't.

Why would Home prices take off again ?
Why did it become DETACHED from REALITY in the first place ?
Might you believe Because of ALLLL that pent up EQUITY ?

TMAC54 says

Why did it become DETACHED from REALITY in the first place ?

When was it last ATTACHED to reality?

With interest rates like this, heck yeah RE is headed up, but with coming inflation, so are all the other inputs! My income is heading backwards not fast, but fast enough, I would not even dream of buying RE!

The FED has done everything they can to keep prices up, the problem with this is that when they undo all the special things they did to prop it up, it will be a huge burden and push prices back down(like when the first time home buyer tax credit ended).

I'd rather buy when I see things return to normal and know that we are truly moving forward from this mess. Right now we could be turning the corner, but I'd rather not take the risk. I think housing isn't going to beat inflation till at least 2014.

"help stabilize housing prices..."

I always laugh when I hear this. There was no concern for "price stabilization" when house prices were shooting upward. I though stable meant resistant to all changes.

Where was that leaked?

Its rare that we all agree on anything these days.

What is the source of the Fed Printing in September? They have been floating false rumors about printing all summer to keep the stock market perched up.

Places like ZeroHedge would be all over it if there was actually a substantial source that there will be printing.

Depends on a lot of factors. Area, local economy, national economy, supply, prices, interest rates, etc. All I know is that we had friends come for Dinner this weekend. They're looking in Dublin CA. They have been outbid on every single house so far. The market here is weird and nobody really knows where its going. Now- what's happening in Atlanta, Austin, or Chicago? Dunno...

Another interesting article from 2012, my favorite quote:

"But realize that low inventory is completely artificial. Why? First, big home builders are in the market to make money. They are quick to respond to market trends. Don’t you think that new home construction would be rising if this were the actual case? Low inventory would be like a siren call for new home builders. Yet housing starts are still near record low levels."

http://www.wealthwire.com/news/economy/3015

On a little roll here, another article from 2012, and I couldn't resist this quote:

"Phoenix isn’t the only place where banks are holding properties off the market."

http://news.firedoglake.com/2012/04/29/bankers-are-still-wrecking-housing-market-fundamentals/

No, salaries won't be rising. Some markets overheated with speculation and mal-investment and will be cooling down.... slowly.

Watch some REIT's take significant hits as well as casual "investors" sell for losses or at break-even.

Inventory is also a matter of location. In some areas where they're building new homes sure- that can change pretty quickly and the supply problem can be remedied. In areas like the Bay Area they aren't building new homes. Hence why there has historically been a low supply. I would agree to some extent with ForWayne: Investors might start unloading properties due to so many of them having bought at the same time after the crash. This could perhaps alleviate some of the supply issues in areas like the BA.

What do salary and wage have anything to do with house price?
No one buy a $600k house with $80k wage.

It comes from foreign investment, Facebook stock, interest only loan, etc.

xenogear3 says

It comes from foreign investment, Facebook stock, interest only loan, etc.

Don't forget the Groupon and Zynga boys. They want their $1,000,000 3/2 as well.

Goran_K says

xenogear3 says

It comes from foreign investment, Facebook stock, interest only loan, etc.

Don't forget the Groupon and Zynga boys. They want their $1,000,000 3/2 as well.

You can't buy a house with Zynga virtual dollars and a Groupon discount coupon. In the virtual world these companies are doing great. However, in the real world of accounting they are having gobs of trouble trying to find real earnings. If Groupon was smart they would offer a free coupon to buy their shares at half-off. If Zynga developers had a clue, they would make a game where all the employees of a new online gaming company, that just went public, are fighting to make it to the exit first, before the fire engulfs the building along with all their virtual world data stored on tape backup.

Both these companies will die worse than WebVan and Pets.com. Much worse.