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David Losh
2012 Dec 31, 9:48am
If you can see, and quantify the shadow inventory, it's no longer a shadow.
The investers are buying these up as fast as they can because they think that they can rent them back to the defaulters for more than the defaulters were paying in mortgage.
This makes roughly zero sense. If they can afford a higher rent payment, they wouldn't be in default on the loan.
I don't think anybody is that dumb. They're buying the properties because they can make a decent rental profit, not because they're delusional.
Goran_K
2013 Jan 1, 4:36am
Even the biggest of Ponzi enablers, JP Morgan Chase, doesn't claim there isn't any "shadow inventory":
People just disagree on the numbers, and how it will have an effect on the market. But the homes aren't really in the shadows.
Goran_K
2013 Jan 1, 5:17am
It looks like the outflow exceeds the inflow. We should be out of the housing mess within a couple of years.
I think at minimum, 3-4 years. That's assuming the fundementals such as unemployment, growth, etc correct as well.
If unemployment remains high, and we continually hit debt ceilings, I think all bets are off.
One thing is for sure, we're not out of the woods quite yet.
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According to Foreclosureradar.com, there is no shadow inventory, so good luck to those waiting for a flood of houses to go on the market...
http://www.contracostatimes.com/ci_21312143/bay-area-foreclosures-jump-july
#housing