patrick.net

I don't live in SF, but hearing the kind of prices they have out there... I think they are suckers for not selling it while it's so incredibly high.

But you know, human nature, greed. Once something is expensive everyone wants it because they think it will make more, and when it will drop a few years from now, they will all cry and panic.

Good article, thanks for sharing.

Good marketing bloggers are less transparent. You didn't need to read the whole article to know it was an agent's work

About Andrew Jeffery

Andrew Jeffery is co-founder and CEO of Cirios Real Estate.

drew_eckhardt says

Good marketing bloggers are less transparent. You didn't need to read the whole article to know it was an agent's work

About Andrew Jeffery

Andrew Jeffery is co-founder and CEO of Cirios Real Estate.

He's one of the great ones. He's also been writing about the real estate market for years for minyanville (when it was great), before bay area real estate trends. He has also written an ebook that shreds NAR.

http://www.amazon.com/Homeownership-Any-Cost-Association-ebook/dp/B006FTIIW2

If you are in SF, he's the agent to talk to.

Will prices "go up more" Roberto?

robertoaribas says

sell now, before prices go up more...

Come on Roberto,we are talking about SF market and you are talking about your little Phoenix market with less then 100K properties - that is not even DP in SF market.

robertoaribas says

WHen those factors are in play, holding out for more price increase is the smarter move.

Sure, to a point. That's what everyone thought in 2006 too. Personally, and I guess I am just a financially conservative guy, if I had bought a house, it was above-water again and I had been thinking of selling, I would sell now while I know I can break-even at the least. Yes, waiting a year might net me some extra cash, but it might also get me back underwater. I think that it was Rockefeller that said that his secret to weathering the depression well was, "I sold too early." The ridiculously low supply we are seeing now won't last forever, and when supplies do return to historic norms, the generally weak economy will push prices back down to some level.

It's anyone's guess what will happen, really. The whole market is completely manipulated, top to bottom, and trying to guess what will happen with textbook economic principles doesn't seem to work out so well. Knowing that it is manipulated is a good start, but from there I really don't know how the tremendous downward price pressure from market fundamentals will reconcile with the tremendous upward pressure from various government and central banking policies. That's the big question here: for how long can reality be defied via financial engineering? I am starting to think, "indefinitely, or at least until the entire system comes crashing down, at which point buying a house will be very very low on my priorities list."

gregpfielding says

Here’s a bold prediction: There will be a record number of new listings in San Francisco this September.

There will be a record low in the number of new listings. I have never seen so few homes in the market in SF from 11 years living here.

You can't time the TOP or the BOTTOM. All you can do is look at the fundamentals of the market, and most importantly the fundamentals of your own financial situation.

Right now, the job situation is become more acute, wages have stagnated, and hiring forecast are minuscule. HP announced this morning that they are going to lay off 29,000 people (almost 1/3 of the job growth claimed for the entire U.S in August).

Does this sound like a good platform for higher housing prices?

Greg may be right. Unless the government starts subsidizing $1,000,000 mortgages, I don't see it.

robertoaribas says

holding out for more price increase is the smarter move.

Haha. Thanks for the laugh. Holding out for a 1 million $ shack to be 2 million $ shack? Not a even a chance for another two decades. For BA it is all about holding the bag of high mortgage for life time and hope for the best that there will be no major downward movement in economy in next 10 to 20 years.

bmwman91 says

indefinitely, or at least until the entire system comes crashing down, at which point buying a house will be very very low on my priorities list."

Funny. I said that in another thread - fall of the Roman empire!