patrick.net

indc says

When do you guys think CA will be done?

When the state budget deficit becomes more of a problem.
https://calmatters.org/politics/2023/12/budget-deficit-california/
68 billion / 40 million = $1700 per capita (not per taxpayer, mind you). Seems like they can spend their rainy day fund and move money around from other programs to kick the can down the road another year.

A lot of these layoffs were companies shedding their over hiring. Remember when SV as hiring people just to prevent a competitor from hiring them, even though they had nothing for them to do? The UPS thing is probably a combination of after Christmas layoffs and, it's otherwise mostly management people.
Which means that they are thinning the management ranks and dumping laid off work onto other people and/or have projects completing and/or going to use more contractors in the future.

zzyzzx says

The UPS thing is probably a combination of after Christmas layoffs and, it's otherwise mostly management people.

Likely true, but I do think UPS is losing business. Amazon has built out a fleet that might be better and quicker. 1st world problems, but I get annoyed when something takes a week to get shipped to me. I'm in hill billy land and sometimes get one or even same day shipping from Amazon. UPS cannot do that. I don't know why or claim to know why. But they don't and can't in almost any region in the lower 48. UPS is a dinosaur at this point even as much as I dislike Bezos and Amazon.

krc says

Weather weather weather...
Oh yeah - weather.
That will always keep people interested in CA.
That is why the left can be so crazy - people in CA have higher tolerances to what it would take to make them go....

I have close friends and investors who pay upwards of $100k/year in property taxes alone. We’re only on this earth for a short amount of time. They’re willing to pay for nice things and conveniences in life. Not the typical W2 people thinking. Yeah…. CA can get away with it thank to its geography.

Eman says

I have close friends and investors who pay upwards of $100k/year in property taxes alone. We’re only on this earth for a short amount of time. They’re willing to pay for nice things and conveniences in life. Not the typical W2 people thinking. Yeah…. CA can get away with it thank to its geography.

Property taxes are nice things? Outside of weather and scenery you do realize CA is a shit hole, right? So is IL in the urban areas, so not being hypocritical. I can buy nice things on $3k/yr property taxes. Go on vacations. You guys live in a different reality and I don't think you realize it.

You do realize you can make the same or more in other parts of the country, right? It's called volume and less risk. Less cost of living. I could make $1M on a RE deal here in IL and live for 1/10th the cost. I'm kind of confused by bragging about paying $100k/yr in property taxes. That's the definition of stupid. Not trying to be a dick.

Listen, if you can make it rain money in CA, you can do it anywhere. Why pay the high cost of living? It's something I don't get. You can still invest in CA and live elsewhere for 50% less and travel back and forth and have a rental. It's why FL, CA, TX are hot spots. Weather. There are massive opportunities elsewhere. I think you're missing out on opportunities being CA centric. Remote land lording or flipping isn't a big task. Most are just scared of doing it.

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https://www.thewrap.com/the-messenger-shutters-failed-business-model-analysis/

See above link. The entire staff (270 workers) of the news website The Messenger laid off as company going bankrupt after going through $50 million start up money in 1 year.

Other media outlets laying off in 2024 so far are Washington Post (240 workers), Los Angeles Times (120 workers or 20% of workforce), and Sports Illustrated (100 workers or 100% of workforce).

Not enough subscription money and advertiser fees are ensuring net income or profit. Look at how Google stock got beat up reporting a slight drop in advertisement revenue for last quarter of 2023.

Wake up serfs and sheep, the economy is not as great as the White House's and mainstream media's narrative.

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WookieMan says

Property taxes are nice things? Outside of weather and scenery you do realize CA is a shit hole, right?

Having spent nearly half my life in the Midwest and the other half on the West Coast (SoCal, NorCal and Oregon) - I think I have a pretty good perspective on the differences and opportunity costs.

Many parts of California are shitholes for sure and not worth the high cost of living - IMO. But there are also many spots that are literally some of the nicest places on the planet. I am fortunate to live in one of the very nice places where I can see snow in the mountains to the Northeast and the Pacific Ocean to the West from my front yard. I have ocean breezes, no need for AC, great schools, low crime, low property taxes and a great community of neighborhood friends. I get to surf every week of the year and have access to world class hiking, skiing, biking, fishing, mountains, deserts.......wineries, breweries, fruits, vegetables and amusement parks. Winters are an absolute blast in California with large surf, snow at the ski resorts and everything greening up and in bloom.

I feel like I am the luckiest guy I know being able to have access to all this natural beauty every day of the year. I am not "rich" but well enough off that I could cash out and move back East and stop working if I wanted.

But what's the point to live in the part of the country that has no fun outdoor activities and is miserably hot and cold for over half the year? I'd rather keep working for another 10 years and continue enjoying paradise. Alot of my friends back home have these big giant homes that are basically empty now their kids are moving on. So they spend a fortune heating/cooling a big structure they barely use and are always asking when they can come back out to visit and stay at my place.

Also the bay area, esp. SF, used to be a vibrant place not that long ago. Before wokeness and the plandemic it was buzzing with social hours and yes hot chicks. The leftoids and ugly wokesters killed ot for now, but CA does have many beautiful places no doubt. If you wanted to avoid taxes in a worthwhile way you'd have to move to a state with no or very low income tax, property taxes aren't going to make it or break it. Having a small "vacation" (less than183 days) home in CA whole being a resident of a low tax state may work.

mell says

Also the bay area, esp. SF, used to be a vibrant place not that long ago. Before wokeness and the plandemic it was buzzing with social hours and yes hot chicks. The leftoids and ugly wokesters killed ot for now, but CA does have many beautiful places no doubt. If you wanted to avoid taxes in a worthwhile way you'd have to move to a state with no or very low income tax, property taxes aren't going to make it or break it. Having a small "vacation" (less than183 days) home in CA whole being a resident of a low tax state may work.

He sold his startup company to Qualcomm for $1.4B a couple years ago and bought a $7.5M house here. He could easily buy another house in another state and claim residency there to avoid paying CA state income tax. My point is that if money was an issue, people will figure it out. Maybe his roots are too deep here so he’s not moving anywhere.

It’s fascinating to listen to how wealthy folks view real estate, money, startups and investments. George Marcus, co-founder of Marcus & Millichap, who is a billionaire, told people/clients during a symposium to never sell Bay Area real estate. This was about a decade ago. So far, it’s been the right call.

mell says

Also the bay area, esp. SF, used to be a vibrant place not that long ago.

Gonna have to disagree. Maybe 50 years ago. My first trip there was when I was 12 I believe. Another at 18. So about 25-30 years ago. It was a shit hole. It for sure didn't get any better and hasn't in my following visits. The only place I've been mugged in my life at knife point. I've worked in the south and west sides of Chicago in basically war zones and that never happened. The homelessness there has been a joke for decades. There's no place like it in the nation.

This is why I tell you guys you're out of touch. You don't live in a normal place remotely. I travel enough. I go to Costa Rica, Aruba, USVI, Dominican, Bahamas, Puerto Rico, Mexico, BVI, etc. These places are more first world than most of CA. Love or hate it, it's my experience. Don't even get me into the lower 48. CA isn't even a top 10.

WookieMan says

This is why I tell you guys you're out of touch. You don't live in a normal place remotely.

100% agree.

Was talking to a friend still in LA yesterday about this, he thought for sure I would move back after two years. SF was a shithole when I was 18, it's even worse now.

When you are in it day in and day out it is hard sometimes to see just how bad it is.

Must have had a bad visit, getting mugged back then and even now is just bad luck. There is no way that any of the places you mentioned above come close in terms of quality of life. They are mostly temporary vacation destinations

RC2006 says

WookieMan says

This is why I tell you guys you're out of touch. You don't live in a normal place remotely.

100% agree.

Was talking to a friend still in LA yesterday about this, he thought for sure I would move back after two years. SF was a shithole when I was 18, it's even worse now.

When you are in it day in and day out it is hard sometimes to see just how bad it is.

You can move out of SF, less than 1 hour away and you don't have any of the issues the city currently has, but all of its natural beauty. Even in SF there are still a few good neighborhoods, but SF and LA both have quite deteriorated over all.

mell says

RC2006 says

WookieMan says

This is why I tell you guys you're out of touch. You don't live in a normal place remotely.

100% agree.

Was talking to a friend still in LA yesterday about this, he thought for sure I would move back after two years. SF was a shithole when I was 18, it's even worse now.

When you are in it day in and day out it is hard sometimes to see just how bad it is.

You can move out of SF, less than 1 hour away and you don't have any of the issues the city currently has, but all of its natural beauty. Even in SF there are still a few good neighborhoods, but SF and LA both have quite deteriorated over all.

California is still a white liberal shithole state, Mel. So it does not matter if you move to the outer suburbs or rural area of California.

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AD says

California is still a white liberal shithole state, Mel. So it does not matter if you move to the outer suburbs or rural area of California.

True, but so are many beautiful states (and many less beautiful than CA). Also CA does have quite a few Republican counties, esp. in rural areas. Most white shitlibs who live in the rural areas are armchair nimby demonrats. The sheriff actually chases criminals with use of helicopter(s) and more and somebody trespassing and shitting into your pool will be prosecuted. They are also usually always voting against housing projects in their backyard. Most Latinos in business are conservatives.

Oh and just one more thing... are the sheep and serfs still believing the economy is in great shape ??

got to keep the ruse and charade going to at least election day this year

Paypal is laying off 7% of its workforce

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/paypal-is-laying-off-2500-employees-214628203.html

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AD says

Oh and just one more thing... are the sheep and serfs still believing the economy is in great shape ??

Why not? They believed that Trump was a Putin Puppet for 4 years, and that it was critical to get him out of office because he was mentally impaired, and they are TOTALLY fine with Joe Biden being obviously senile and don't care he's been making deals with Ukraine and China for at least 10 years.

If the propaganda box tells them that toxic sludge is good and a health miracle, they'll be clamoring to purchase it.

Okay, so 353,000 jobs added versus estimate of 185,000

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/02/us-economy-added-353000-jobs-in-january-much-better-than-expected.html

Out of the 353,000 jobs added:

21% or 74,000 for professional and business services: how many is this from government spending given all the Ukraine weapons and Biden infrastructure spending

20% or 70,000 for healthcare : that's great, let's make healthcare the biggest sector due to government spending (medicare, medicaid, subsidized health insurance from Obamacare, etc.)

13% or 45,000 for retail: awesome with more Walmart and Dollar General jobs

10% or 36,000 for government jobs: this speaks for itself

8.5% or 30,000 for social assistance: more government spending such as for undocumented immigrants influx

and 6.5% or 23,000 for manufacturing

BOTTOMLINE: 72.5% of the jobs added most likely are low paying such as retail or nurses aide in a medicaid nursing home, or are government subsidized like a quality engineer working at Raytheon to inspect replenishment weapons for the Ukraine war

richwicks says

AD says

Oh and just one more thing... are the sheep and serfs still believing the economy is in great shape ??

Why not? They believed that Trump was a Putin Puppet for 4 years, and that it was critical to get him out of office because he was mentally impaired, and they are TOTALLY fine with Joe Biden being obviously senile and don't care he's been making deals with Ukraine and China for at least 10 years.

If the propaganda box tells them that toxic sludge is good and a health miracle, they'll be clamoring to purchase it.

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Hard to worry about the economy when you're retired and watching your stonks go up year after year. Hate Biden but love the SPY.

Also hasten to add : Not a boomer and "OK Xer" isn't a thing yet.

stfu says

Hard to worry about the economy when you're retired and watching your stonks go up year after year. Hate Biden but love the SPY.

Also hasten to add : Not a boomer and "OK Xer" isn't a thing yet.

SPY (or S&P 500 index) has only provided a real annualized return of around 5.1% (with dividends reinvested) since January 2000. Nothing spectacular as it was being touted as historically returning 11% a year (when annual inflation was 3%). The last +23 years has been the lost decades.

https://ofdollarsanddata.com/sp500-calculator/

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AD says

stfu says

Hard to worry about the economy when you're retired and watching your stonks go up year after year. Hate Biden but love the SPY.

Also hasten to add : Not a boomer and "OK Xer" isn't a thing yet.

SPY (or S&P 500 index) has only provided a real annualized return of around 5.1% (with dividends reinvested) since January 2000. Nothing spectacular as it was being touted as historically returning 11% a year (when annual inflation was 3%). The last +23 years has been the lost decades.

https://ofdollarsanddata.com/sp500-calculator/

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2000 was the peak of the dot com bubble, and we had the 2008 crisis, so that comparison is a bit lopsided. It does underscore though the need for active trading during certain years decades, while in others buy and hold may do well enough or even better. We left buy and hold after the 2009-2020 prolonged bull cycle, it's been active trading ever since (unless you only hold one of the tech giants who keep making new highs in the face of the broader sideways market and indices).

mell says

2000 was the peak of the dot com bubble, and we had the 2008 crisis, so that comparison is a bit lopsided.

I could see if this was for a 5 year period, but again this is for more 23 years. That reasonably could be almost 75% of your investment period such as someone who starts to save in their mid 20's and retires in late 50's.

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You're both forgetting that investing in the S&P 500 was considered a winning investment strategy. Most folks are told to reduce their stock exposure as they age. Following such sage advice over the last 20 years or so works out to a negative rate of return after inflation.

---- Ahhhhhhhhhh, those investment geniuses at Wall Street.

AD says

mell says

2000 was the peak of the dot com bubble, and we had the 2008 crisis, so that comparison is a bit lopsided.

I could see if this was for a 5 year period, but again this is for more 23 years. That reasonably could be almost 75% of your investment period such as someone who starts to save in their mid 20's and retires in late 50's.

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Misc says

You're both forgetting that investing in the S&P 500 was considered a winning investment strategy. Most folks are told to reduce their stock exposure as they age. Following such sage advice over the last 20 years or so works out to a negative rate of return after inflation.

---- Ahhhhhhhhhh, those investment geniuses at Wall Street.

The winning trade would have been to sell in 2007 and buy back in 2009, their return would look entirely different, even if just following indexes. Also while it's true that inflation makes this a toss up or even a loss, don't forget many boomers coast on inflation safe vehicles, SS/Medicare, prop 13, rent control and many other discounts they enjoy. Again inflation is hitting the youth the worst, they have no such vehicles at their disposal and have to buy in at today's prices with today's national debt.

Misc says

You're both forgetting that investing in the S&P 500 was considered a winning investment strategy. Most folks are told to reduce their stock exposure as they age. Following such sage advice over the last 20 years or so works out to a negative rate of return after inflation.

---- Ahhhhhhhhhh, those investment geniuses at Wall Street.

Yeah, I think the general formula is 100 minus your age as far as percentage in stocks. For my IRAs (rollover/traditional and Roth) I am 50% investment grade bonds and 50% index funds.

Bonds like Vanguard's Total Bond Fund (ticker: BND) took a ~30% hit because of rising interest rates, but I think bond funds like BND will fare a lot better for the next cycle before the Fed has to raise rates again due to a new stage of inflation.

I did state in my post that the CNBC's and Kiplinger's were touting the S&P 500 returning an average of 11% a year. From I remember that was back around 2002.

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Wayfair to lay off 12% of workforce. So keep drinking the Democrat kool aid as far as how great the economy is.

https://fortune.com/2024/01/23/wayfair-layoffs-ceo-niraj-shah-laziness/

See my post above ( https://patrick.net/post/1216871/2012-09-24-layoffs?start=11#comment-2031817 ) explaining the bullshitness in the recent jobs report.

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The job market looks solid on paper.

In 2023, unemployment hit a 54-year-low at 3.4% in January, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that U.S. employers added 2.7 million people to the payroll the same year. But it’s a different story for active job seekers.

A staffing firm Insight Global found that recently unemployed full-time workers applied to an average of 30 jobs, only to receive an average of four callbacks or responses. So why does it feel so hard to get a job right now and is the U.S. labor market as strong as it seems?

See more at CNBC: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHaDrM8EgYg

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Notice how unemployment claims are just below 2 million and have steadied around that number. The steadying means its not necessarily a very good job market as the unemployment number is not slowly decreasing.

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Governments are hiring enough DEI employees to make sure the unemployment rate remains low.

..

https://www.mypanhandle.com/news/local-news/bay-county/lynn-haven/maximus-to-close-lynn-haven-office-in-may/

see above ...this federal contracted call center is shutting down and laying off 100 who work at the Lynn Haven, FL office (about 5 miles from Panama City Beach)

they are looking to replace these 100 onsite call center jobs with work-from-home jobs

makes sense as it seems call center jobs can be more work-from-home jobs

Omni Interactions which is a company that offers call center services advertises a lot on work-from-home sites like Work At Home Queen and Rat Race Rebellion

...

If history is any indication.

Yeah Eman, and that is why the "great" jobs growth numbers are driven mostly by health care, social assistance and government based on latest data from Mish Talk website.

21.24% of the new jobs added in 2023 were government
9.06% of the new jobs added in 2023 were social assistance
22.31% of the new jobs added in 2023 were health care

so at least 52% of the jobs added in 2023 were government, social assistance and healthcare

most health care is funded with government dollars such as Medicare, Medicaid, Veteran Affairs, or Affordable Care Act (subsidized by tax dollars)
...

Eman says

If history is any indication.

I think we just witnessed the 1st part of the Boomer retirements. Next will be the death job losses for Boomers who didn't save. Then we will get the 3rd and final wave when those that were stubborn, could have retired but are work junkies. I think we're entering a flatline phase.

I mean that graph does look alarming, but the biggest current generation, Millennials are entering prime earning years. Getting lower pay than the Boomers they're replacing, so earnings and growth can go up. Covid was also a fluke in the employment system so who the hell really knows.

Love him or hate him one good move by Biden was the CHIPS Act. https://www.azcentral.com/story/money/business/tech/2023/10/19/tsmc-plant-close-manufacturing-start-date-north-phoenix/71240590007/

Drove by the facility last time out in AZ. It's massive. There's going to more of this stuff happening, So it's not all Joe Biden. Mexico is the future for cheap labor. So companies like Apple are going to have to bring manufacturing back stateside. One positive of Covid is that we're way too reliant on China and having stuff manufactured overseas.

After the Suez Canal Evergreen bockage and now Panama Canal region in a drought and the locks are at risk of not working, we have a massive shipping issue. Stuff is coming back because we have a lot of young and cheap labor with the Boomers going away, we have the ability to replace them and add more.

Where Biden has failed is controlling inflation. It's the reason we've been delaying the build on our next primary home. Yes it's custom, we own the lots but bids are fucking ridiculous. He's also dying in front of our eyes and it is embarrassing. I think we're gonna just pull the trigger regardless this summer/fall and at least break ground and get the foundation going before it freezes.

I'm optimistic about the future if I'm being honest. Probably on average you have $40-50/hr workers being replaced with $20-30/hr workers. That's a massive increase in capital. Investor was returns, so while they'll save some cash, they'll invest into things that create income for them and shareholders. I think this is a post covid blip on the radar. I don't know a single person that can't find a job. My SIL felon works two part time jobs, has an apartment and just went on a cruise with us. She doesn't have money like us remotely, but she no longer qualifies for food stamps. There are jobs to be had and life a fun life. Just takes work.

AD says

Yeah Eman, and that is why the "great" jobs growth numbers are driven mostly by health care, social assistance and government based on latest data from Mish Talk website.

21.24% of the new jobs added in 2023 were government
9.06% of the new jobs added in 2023 were social assistance
22.31% of the new jobs added in 2023 were health care

so at least 52% of the jobs added in 2023 were government, social assistance and healthcare

most health care is funded with government dollars such as Medicare, Medicaid, Veteran Affairs, or Affordable Care Act (subsidized by tax dollars)
...

The whole country is headed to shitholeville status.

WookieMan says

Stuff is coming back because we have a lot of young and cheap labor with the Boomers going away, we have the ability to replace them and add more.

Maybe this is part of the reason for tons of illiterate invaders? Chhhheeeeaaaapppp labor for the factories.

Oddly enough, the supposedly apolitical Fed chair Powell said we need the workers when remarking on the illegal invasion.

GNL says

Maybe this is part of the reason for tons of illiterate invaders? Chhhheeeeaaaapppp labor for the factories.

Probably if I was being honest. I do think it can influence and help skilled workforces here in the states. Hard to tell until it happens. On wave one currently after Covid. So we'll see.

. from today's Yahoo Finance

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/google-lays-off-thousands-more-210822278.html

Google has initiated significant layoffs across its various teams, including the Voice Assistant, hardware, engineering and ad sales teams, marking a continuation of the tech industry’s trend towards reducing workforce expenses. The layoffs have affected hundreds of employees within the Voice Assistant unit; hardware teams responsible for Pixel, Nest and Fitbit products; and a considerable portion of the augmented reality (AR) team. This move is part of Google’s broader effort to streamline operations and align resources with its most significant product priorities.

Late last year, there were already worries within the company that AI was going to begin replacing employees at Alphabet. Futurism reported late last year the technology giant has already begun the process of replacing some jobs with AI tools developed internally. But this differs from what Google's senior vice president, Philipp Schindler, said on a recent earnings call about the recent restructuring and job cuts.

Schindler said, "I want to be clear, when we restructure, there's always an opportunity to be more efficient and smarter in how we service and grow our customers." He went on to say, "We're not restructuring because AI is taking away roles that's important here. But we see significant opportunities here with our AI-powered solution to actually deliver incredible ROI at scale, and that's why we're doing some of those adjustments."

Eman says

If history is any indication.

In the face of massive, unprecedented, levels of illegal immigration. Millions and millions of illiterate, unskilled, 'laborers' from around the world.
Well, the ones I have seen in on-the-street interviews will never compete for work or be productive contributors anyway.