patrick.net

EastCoastBubbleBoy says

1) low interest rates
2) rising rents
3) unemployment, although high, has stabilized.
4) pent up demand
5) manipulation of housing stock.

2,3, 4, +5 aren't real. Nice try to make a commercial.

One problem: It didn't work.

APOCALYPSEFUCK, I'm not good with firearms, or knife fighting. Do you have any books you would recommend for learning how to fight off cannibals with such weapons?

2) rising rents

with a few exceptions - the data I have at my disposal indicate rents are rising:
2013 Fair Market Rent (proposed)

2012 Fair Market Rent (final)

(source: HUD)

didn't know I was lying.. but I appreciate the alternate data source.

http://www.transunion.com/corporate/business/marketperspectives/propertymgt/industryTrends/property-managers-faring-much-better-in-2012-than-2011.page

rent, just like housing prices, are localized. rental prices are falling in some areas, rising in others. Taking an average across the whole country, the have risen 4.4% YOY

There are lies, damn lies and statistics.

we agree to disagree.

Great Tune...

http://www.youtube.com/embed/8A-Z9IXJ9DM

ECBB,

I'm glad you have a good sense of humor. Did you close?

War says

EastCoastBubbleBoy says

1) low interest rates

2) rising rents

3) unemployment, although high, has stabilized.

4) pent up demand

5) manipulation of housing stock.

1) Why buy when rates are falling

2) Rents are falling. Sorry to inform you.

3) Employment has little to do with housing demand

4) Housing demand ist at 16 year lows. Why is this fact over your head?

5) 28 million excess empty houses can't be manipulated for long.

1. Do you buy when rates are increasing?
2. Rents are increasing. Glad to inform you.
3. Employment has everything to do with it. Unemployed don't get loans.
4. Housing demand is at a 6 year high. Awesome, isn't it?
5. You mean the myth of 28 million empty houses?

War says

1. No. Buy when rates have bottomed.

2. Rents are falling. That's long since been established.

3. Employment has nothing to do with it. Housing formation does. And household formation is at pre-WW2 lows.

4. Housing demand is at 1997 levels. That too has long been established.

5. 28 MILLION excess empty houses is a reality. You better get used to it.

1. Zero is not the bottom. Get real.
2. Established by whom? The drunk bartender?
3. WTF are you talking about? Employment is the #1 determinant of housing demand.
4. Even the NAR does not bullshit so much.
5. LOL. If you were in Cuba you would be getting used to prison for spreading myths.

Sure can't wait for those 28MM houses to hit the market. How many do you think are in NYC and the surrounding counties? I'm gona buy me a whole crapload of houses when they start selling them for the price of a compact car. Can't wait....

I bet that all those houses hit the market when rates go lower than 2%. That's the time to pounce!

Everyone's reality is different. In our neighborhood things have not bottomed out and probably won't for a while. Some things have, but usually investors get the first dibs on those since they have all the connections and bribes going for them.

Some areas here are really poor, almost as bad as Phoenix, we have very many poor people with no money and/or credit.

Reader says

1) low interest rates
2) rising rents
3) unemployment, although high, has stabilized.
4) pent up demand
5) manipulation of housing stock.

2,3, 4, +5 aren't real. Nice try to make a commercial.

I have observed rising rents in my city. I think if you compare rents to 2007 they are broadly higher now.

Unemployment does seem to have stabilized.

I think pent up demand is very real, at least for me.

Don't know about 5.

Call it Crazy says

Are you listening to NAR again???

Ever hear of the blind leading the blind?

NOTHING will help. This is a physical law what goes up must go down. It is a direct result of the force of fraud and greed.

Raw says

Even the NAR does not bullshit so much.

You just exposed yourself with that line.

War says

If you think 28 MILLION excess empty housing units is high, you'll be stunned over the coming years when an addition 35 MILLION housing units hit the market as boomers die off.

THEY DONT WANT TO FACE THOSE FACTS UNTIL THEY SCAM EVERYONE DRY WITH THE BULLSHITE.

bgamall4 says

War says

Housing Demand is at 1997 lows and falling. This is another reality you seem to run from.

There is a mortgage depression at about 2.4 million per year. There are an additional 2 million homes purchased by cash, mostly by Wall Street.

Watch out, it is a scam of a bubble. I don't think it is sustainable, but they are keeping inventory off the market and potential rentals off the market. They don't give a damn about main street.

Gary Anderson strategicdefaultbooks.com

Demand for homes is rising along with the prices. Cash buying means housing is developing strong foundations going forward, because cash buyers cannot end up in foreclosure.

War says

4. Housing Demand at 1997 rate is directly from NAR's own data sets.
5. If you think 28 MILLION excess empty housing units is high, you'll be stunned over the coming years when an addition 35 MILLION housing units hit the market as boomers die off.

You believe the NAR? Even politicians are more honest.
The baby boomers who kick the bucket will sell to the next generation. With a rising population it should not be too difficult. Infact I think there will be a housing shortage down the road.

bgamall4 says

Watch out, it is a scam of a bubble.

We see it. They need to watch out because again history has seen this all before and the results are far from pretty.

War says

Raw says

Demand for homes is rising along with the prices. Cash buying means housing is developing strong foundations going forward, because cash buyers cannot end up in foreclosure.

Demand is at 1997 levels and currently falling.

Raw says

With a rising population it should not be too difficult.

Pop growth in the US is the lowest in US history per 2010 Census.

"housing shortage"? BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Not with 25 MILLION excess empty houses currently in inventory.

Demand will only continue to fall. This is only the beginning of the final result of their sinister greed coming back to crush them.

War says

1. No. Buy when rates have bottomed.

2. Rents are falling. That's long since been established.

3. Employment has nothing to do with it. Housing formation does. And household formation is at pre-WW2 lows.

4. Housing demand is at 1997 levels. That too has long been established.

5. 28 MILLION excess empty houses is a reality. You better get used to it.

Hmm housing demand at 1997 levels? Sounds good to me, housing skyrocketed from 1997 to 2006... Plenty of demand.

War says

Raw says

Demand for homes is rising along with the prices. Cash buying means housing is developing strong foundations going forward, because cash buyers cannot end up in foreclosure.

Demand is at 1997 levels and currently falling.

Raw says

With a rising population it should not be too difficult.

Pop growth in the US is the lowest in US history per 2010 Census.

"housing shortage"? BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Not with 25 MILLION excess empty houses currently in inventory.

Those 25 million excess empty houses must all be within walking distance of your home, because I sure as hell don't see any.

It's important not to confuse "rents are rising" with "rents have risen." In fact, a statement like "rents are rising" must be filled with so many qualifications to be helpful, it's probably confusing and confusingly suggests knowledge of the future. Same with "prices", "falling", "stocks", "housing," "the market" and so on.

What about PMI tripping since Oct 2011 and home Insurance doubling?

Look at the costs of say Sink hole insurance in Florida or flood insurance etc.... double and triple again

Pent up demand .....lol With what credit and which job to support it?
Rent are fluctuating mainly downward

There was always manipulation of the housing market!

Until jobs spectacularly return in the USA so will real estate prices.

So I DISAGREE, strongly.

Histrionically the right time to buy is when interest rates go UP

So you can see where we are headed with this.

0.25 rate increase = $1 TRILLION in increased debt the government will owe

It's not happening anytime soon.

I have seen this graph before and agree with it. However the bottom was described around 2015/2017

The recovering end of this graph is over a 10 year period through 2025/2027 quite some time away.

As you can see we are "Just" entering the years of "DEPENDENCY"

Politicofact says

I have seen this graph before and agree with it. However the bottom was described around 2015/2017

The recovering end of this graph is over a 10 year period through 2025/2027 quite some time away.

We are at the hope stage.
Old British saying - "While there is life, there is hope"

Raw. I was just outbid by a FHA backed couple. I really want the house. Should I start killing or wait until their offer gets blown out by the appraisal?

Goran_K says

Raw. I was just outbid by a FHA backed couple. I really want the house. Should I start killing or wait until their offer gets blown out by the appraisal?

hmmmmm...There is no chance that home will appraise for an FHA loan if they were the highest bidders. This home will be back on the market within 2 to 4 weeks. Go back up, and keep pestering the listing agent.
You can go ahead and kill if the back up offer does not work. Remember, you only want to kill as a last resort, because when you bury them it only puts an upward pressure on land prices.

Raw says

because when you bury them it only puts an upward pressure on land prices.

That's an excellent point. I never considered the impact of dead bodies on land prices...

bgamall4 says

Raw says

Cash buying means housing is developing strong foundations going forward, because cash buyers cannot end up in foreclosure.

I disagree. They won't end up in foreclosure, but they won't spur demand from the people who buy most of the homes, the people who take out a mortgage.

My view is this: the 30 year fixed mortgage was evidence of a golden age in America. Cash buying and easy money mortgages are evidence of instability in the real estate market going forward. It could go up and it could go down. And the 3 percenters will default in large numbers.

Gary Anderson strategicdefaultbooks.com

As soon as they start loosening lending standards you will see another phase in the real estate boom. This time by the average person.
A 30 year mortgage rate at less than 3% can only be construed as the golden age of American real estate.
50 years from now granpa's will be telling their grand kids of 2.5% mortgage rates, and those kids will say "Wow, even the big bad wolf could have bought his own house"

Well, we as a nation have bigger problems. Some of them will and do impact housing, but it impacts all of us long term.

We have aging population. And it's not good for the nation when more people are old than young. That means more people using services than providing them. Next 10 years or so you'll see a lot of housing demand disappear simply through basic after death inheritance.

Our inability to deal with rising debts another problem. Something will have to give. Credit cards don't last forever. And it will cost dearly the longer we wait. Future generations are saddled with so much debt that they won't have any money after taxes to even have a lifestyle so many of us are used to today.

Sure doom and gloom, but I don't see an answer from either political party. There aren't any solutions government wants to attempt.

Raw says

50 years from now granpa's will be telling their grand kids of 2.5% mortgage rates, and those kids will say "Wow, even the big bad wolf could have bought his own house

In a market where price is held only by "how much a month" low interest rates are absolutely the worst case scenario. Government only pushing low rates to reduce number of strategic defaults and to let people refi into lower rates. It isn't for buyers. Prices soar when rates tumble, and wise versa.

FortWayne says

Well, we as a nation have bigger problems. Some of them will and do impact housing, but it impacts all of us long term.

We have aging population. And it's not good for the nation when more people are old than young. That means more people using services than providing them. Next 10 years or so you'll see a lot of housing demand disappear simply through basic after death inheritance.

Our inability to deal with rising debts another problem. Something will have to give. Credit cards don't last forever. And it will cost dearly the longer we wait. Future generations are saddled with so much debt that they won't have any money after taxes to even have a lifestyle so many of us are used to today.

Sure doom and gloom, but I don't see an answer from either political party. There aren't any solutions government wants to attempt.

Freedom 1789-2012

Cheer up! There is nothing America cannot handle.
If we can come out of the great depression, we can come out of anything.

FortWayne says

Raw says

50 years from now granpa's will be telling their grand kids of 2.5% mortgage rates, and those kids will say "Wow, even the big bad wolf could have bought his own house

In a market where price is held only by "how much a month" low interest rates are absolutely the worst case scenario. Government only pushing low rates to reduce number of strategic defaults and to let people refi into lower rates. It isn't for buyers. Prices soar when rates tumble, and wise versa.

Freedom 1789-2012

Low rates are for anyone and everyone who can qualify. If you can't qualify now, you just have to wait.
Prices do soar when interest rates go down, which is exactly what is happening now.

Raw says

We are at the hope stage.
Old British saying - "While there is life, there is hope"

We are not in the hope stage. We are in the dependency stage.

Then comes despondency.

To be in "HOPE" would mean that we are out of depression, that's nowhere close to happing.

Also the British are in a recession. Very hopeful, not.

War says

2. Rents are falling. That's long since been established.

So long ago it isn't true any more? Where are you getting your rents are falling info.?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303933404577505260835025948.html